Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...

Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the Trump administration's significant fiscal legislation will drive economic growth next year, although this impact will be partially offset by the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case [1] - The federal deficit is projected to overshadow GDP growth [1] - An estimated additional $100 billion in tax refunds expected early next year is anticipated to contribute approximately 0.4 percentage points to economic growth in the first half of the year [1]

So, the non-bar payrolls number coming in at 119,000. 119,000. The estimate was 50,000.Private sector jobs coming in at 97,000. The estimate was 50. Factory jobs, we saw a loss of 6,000. Government jobs, a gain of 22,000.Average work week, all private workers, 34.2% hours. Average hourly earnings annually up 3.8%. Little bit better than expected.Average hourly earnings month-to-month up2%. The unemployment rate 4.4%. The unemployment rate 4.4% the estimate was 4.3%. Again, non-farm 119,000 the estimate was ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月20日电德国央行在周四发布的月度报告中表示，德国经济在今年最后一个季度可能会 出现适度增长，主要由服务业推动扩张，同时其疲弱的工业部门正在趋于稳定。德国经济在上个季度保 持零增长，作为欧洲最大经济体，过去三年大部分时间都处于停滞状态。工业经历了深度衰退，家庭则 通过储蓄来重建因快速通胀而受损的财富。此外，德国央行指出，由于高成本，工业已失去了大量竞争 力，因此只能在有限程度上受益于全球经济复苏，美国关税也可能对需求造成压力。 ...

德国央行表示，随着美国关税引发的动荡逐渐消退，德国经济可能在今年最后三个月重回增长轨道。该 行在周三发布的月度报告中指出，2025年初出口激增，随后在后续数月转为拖累因素，预计出口和工业 将在"第四季度趋于稳定"。报告称，服务业也将支撑经济活动，"尽管未必来自消费相关领域"。德国央 行表示，这可能使得整体产出"小幅增长"。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

（原标题：哥伦比亚第三季度经济增长3.6%） 据哥伦比亚《共和国报》11月18日报道，2025年哥第三季度国内生产总值 同比增长3.6%，为自2022年第三季度以来的最高增速。本季度经济扩张主要由 公共管理部门带动，增长8%，对整体增速贡献1.3个百分点，军警人数扩张、 军队津贴发放及国家注册署在选举周期的各项投资，是推动该领域增长的主要 因素。商业、维修、交通与仓储、住宿和餐饮板块以5.6%的增速位列第二，贡 献1.2个百分点。其中批发和零售贸易增长8.6%，电子产品销售、餐饮服务以 及车辆进口（尤其是混动电动车）表现突出。哥全国企业家协会主席马斯特表 示，本季度经济增长主要由公共开支驱动。目前消费以超过4%的速度增长， 而公共支出大幅增加，实际上拉动经济的正是政府的支出。他补充称，社会保 障领域支出增加也提高增幅，政府仍在努力偿还拖欠的医疗体系费用。相较之 下，采矿业（-5.7%）和建筑业（-1.5%）是本季度唯一萎缩的行业。其中金属 矿开采下降18.2%，原油和天然气开采下降3.7%，煤炭开采下降5.6%。 ...

美联储巴尔金：如果劳动力数量不增加，经济增长将完全取决于生产率。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk emphasizes that the only way to escape the debt crisis and prevent U.S. bankruptcy is through AI and robotics, highlighting the unsustainable growth of federal debt and its implications for the economy [2][3] Group 1: Economic Concerns - Musk points out that interest payments on national debt now exceed major federal expenditures, including military spending, which serves as a personal wake-up call for him [2] - He views national debt as a structural threat to the future of the economy, not just a political issue, reflecting concerns about government inefficiency and declining industrial productivity [2][3] Group 2: Technological Solutions - Traditional political measures are deemed insufficient by Musk, who argues that economic expansion, supported by advanced automation, is necessary to address the debt crisis [3] - His experience in capital-intensive industries like aerospace and automotive informs his belief that automation is key to improving efficiency and reducing costs [3] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Musk's optimistic view on technology is supported by historical precedents where rapid innovation led to significant output and tax revenue growth, aiding in debt management [4] - By linking fiscal sustainability with advancements in AI and robotics, Musk places the debt issue within a broader narrative of future economic growth, raising questions about whether emerging technologies can deliver sufficient productivity gains for long-term economic health [4]

日本内阁府17日公布，日本三季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算下降1.8%，自2024年第一季 度以来再次出现负增长。分析人士指出，受困于内需与外需的双重压力，以及对华关系持续紧张，日本 经济正滑向更为复杂的境地。 数据显示，日本今年三季度实际GDP（剔除物价变动因素）比上一季度下降0.4%。日媒分析指出，国 内需求疲软和出口低迷是导致GDP下滑的主要原因。 自5月以来，受美国关税影响，日本出口连续4个月萎缩。尽管日美双方于7月份达成协议，将"对等关 税"税率设定为15%，但历史高位的关税水平仍然抑制了制造业的发展，对其出口依赖型经济构成严重 冲击。受此影响，三季度货物及服务贸易出口大幅下降，环比下降1.2%，拖累GDP增速0.2个百分点。 进口因内需疲软环比下降0.1%。 与此同时，内需方面，占日本经济总量过半的私人消费增速也显著放缓，增速从第二季度的0.4%放缓 至0.1%，这再次表明，由于生活成本高企导致实际工资停滞不前，日本家庭仍在削减可自由支配的支 出。 截至发稿，日经225指数跌破49000点关口，日内跌超1300点。 来源：经济日报 日本内阁府此前发布中期经济预测报告称，考虑到美国关税政策 ...