All right. Uh let's uh let's move on to the broader markets. The S&P 500 is pacing for what would be at least if it maintained what it's doing right now, a third straight day of declining.Still, although we're very close to record levels, joining us with his outlook is Michael Caneritz. He's Piper Sandler's chief investment strategist. Nice to have you here, Michael.Thanks. Uh you write um that you expect improving EPS breath to take over after three years of PE expansion. Can you explain what that means an ...

美国经济在第二季度以近两年来最快的速度增长，这得益于消费者支出数据被大幅上修。 25日周四，美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的初步数据显示： 作为经济增长核心引擎的消费者支出，其增速从此前的1.6%上修至2.5%，成为本次数据修正的关键驱动力。 同日发布的其他数据显示，商业设备订单增长稳健，商品贸易逆差收窄幅度超预期，初请失业金人数也降至7月中旬以来的最低水平。有关美国经济衰 退的担忧进一步降温。 消费与投资共同推动增长 消费者支出：季化环比增速从1.6%的初值上修至2.5%。 非住宅类投资：增速从5.7%上修至7.3%，显示企业投资意愿强劲。 住宅类投资：则出现小幅下修，萎缩幅度从4.7%扩大至5.1%。 国内总收入（GDI）：作为衡量经济活动的另一项关键指标，其增速从4.8%下修至3.8%，与GDP增速保持一致。 增长前景喜忧参半 尽管第二季度的经济表现强劲，且第三季度开局良好，但经济学家对未来的增长前景看法不一。亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型在周四的数据发布前，预 测第三季度（7月至9月）的经济增长率将达到3.3%。 然而，经济学家对第四季度的增长前景则不那么乐观。市场普遍担心，就业市场的疲软迹象可能会削弱 ...

芦哲、刘子博、李昌萌、潘京（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 股债收益相关性是构建多资产组合前的核心考虑因素之一。假设构建一个80%投资于中债-国债总财富（总值）指数、20%投资于中证A500全收益指数 的"82组合"。假设上述两个指数的相关系数（简称"股债收益相关系数"）从-0.6提高至0，那么该组合所对应的： 3. 如何看待国内股债收益相关性？ 其中，①"通胀的不确定性"可参考CPI当月同比增速的波动率（经季调）；②"增长的不确定性"可参考规上工业增加值当月同比增速的波动率（实际值、 经季调）；③"通胀与增长的相关系数"可采用上述两个同比增速指标的相关系数（5年滚动）；④C为常数项/系数，为残差项。 经检验，国内存在"通胀的不确定性X，增长的不确定性Y，通胀与增长的相关系数Z→股债收益相关系数A"的联合因果关系，具体公式是： 伴随预期波动率的提高，投资组合的预期收益可能并非是单调递增的，分界线（股票配置比例α）大约介于18%-21%。 风险提示：（1）选取计算股债收益相关系数时所参考的股票指数、债券指数可能不够合理；（2）受制于历史数据可得性，以"5年滚动"计算国内股债收 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The latest GDP data for Q2 2025 shows significant economic performance among the world's major economies: the US, EU, and China [1][2][4] - GDP is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the total market value of all final products and services produced in a region [1] Group 2: United States Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, the US GDP reached $7.18 trillion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7%, up from 2.3% in Q1 [2][4] - The growth was primarily driven by a 3.1% increase in personal consumption expenditures and a 5.2% rise in business investment [4] - Challenges include inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with a CPI increase of 2.7% year-on-year in June 2025, and a 1.2% decline in residential investment due to high mortgage costs [4] Group 3: European Union Economic Performance - The EU's GDP for Q2 2025 was approximately €4.92 trillion (about $5.38 trillion), with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [4][5] - Economic growth varied among member states, with Germany's GDP growing only 0.1%, while Spain showed stronger growth at 0.6% [5] - The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates to support economic activity, indicating a cautious recovery [5] Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's GDP for Q2 2025 was ¥33.81 trillion (approximately $4.66 trillion), with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, up from 5.0% in Q1 [6] - Key growth drivers included a 4.8% increase in retail sales, stable industrial production growth of 5.7%, and a 5.6% increase in the service sector [6] - Challenges include a 10.1% decline in real estate investment and ongoing employment pressures, with an urban unemployment rate of 5.0% [6] Group 5: Comparative Analysis - The absolute GDP figures show the US as the largest economy at $7.18 trillion, followed by the EU at $5.38 trillion and China at $4.66 trillion [7] - In terms of growth rates, China's 5.3% year-on-year growth outpaces the US's 2.7% and the EU's 1.2% [9] - Each economy faces unique challenges: the US contends with inflation and a weak housing market, the EU grapples with structural reforms and geopolitical risks, while China deals with real estate adjustments and employment issues [9]

（原标题：菲经济增长或放缓） 据《菲星报》9月23日报道，菲央行在其最新的货币政策报告中表示，预计2025年菲GDP增长 率稳定在发展预算协调委员会（DBCC）设定的5.5%至6.5%目标的低端；预计2026年菲经济 增速在6%至7%区间；在实际政策利率下调和产出缺口趋于中性的支撑下，到2027年恢复至目 标区间。2025年通胀率预测为1.7%，远低于政府设定的2%至4%的目标区间；2026年升至 3.3%；2027年升至3.4%。菲财政部也承认，由于全球经济逆风，经济增速低于最初预期，但 通过采取更强有力的税收措施、改进税收管理、打击逃税，财政目标仍能实现。菲财政部助理 部长凯比雷斯表示，随着数字服务增值税、资本市场效率计划法案、CREATE MORE 计划以 及矿业部门强化财政制度等关键措施的实施，今年菲政府收入将有所增加；除此之外，电子游 戏税、一次性塑料消费税、普遍税收赦免以及延长遗产税赦免等其他措施也在酝酿中。 ...

当地时间9月24日，德国总理默茨在联邦议会就2026年联邦预算案进行的一般性辩论中表示，德国正处 于"近代史上最具挑战性的阶段之一"，必须通过切实改革推动经济增长，保持社会稳定与国家竞争力。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, primarily due to weakened consumer spending [4][6] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, although it has remained low overall, with job growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [5][6] - Inflation has recently risen, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 2.7% year-over-year as of August, still above the long-term target of 2% [6][7] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, describing this move as "risk management" in response to concerns about a weakening labor market rather than inflation threats [1][7] - The Fed's policy stance is flexible and will be adjusted based on incoming data and economic outlook, with indications that further rate cuts may occur in the future [1][7] - The current monetary policy is seen as moderately restrictive but aims to better respond to changing economic conditions [7] Market Sentiment - Stock prices are perceived to be "fairly high" in valuation, suggesting that the market may be overvalued according to the Fed's assessment [1][3] - Investor sentiment is cautious as they await the release of the latest PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure [1][3]

来源：滚动播报 鲍威尔：美联储褐皮书显示经济有温和增长，经济在增长但增速不快。 ...

穆迪预测，受全球大宗商品需求反弹、基础设施投资和通胀放缓的推动， 撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济增速将达到约4.7%，这一势头将增强财政状况，并支 持稳定的主权信用评级。 （原标题：非洲信用评级随着经济增长而趋于稳定） 据《非洲简报》9月20日报道，穆迪评级表示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的信 用前景保持稳定，预计2025年和2026年经济增长将加速，这有助于各国政府管 理债务并增加收入。 尽管预测乐观，但一些经济体，尤其是南非，其经济增速可能低于1.5%， 而尼日利亚和肯尼亚则面临高借贷成本和持续通胀。穆迪警告称，税收疲软以 及选举前的政治风险也给前景蒙上阴影。 穆迪预计，随着收入增加和支出限制的逐步落实，债务将逐步减少。然而，据 彭博社报道，融资成本仍然高昂，各国政府需要持续改革以避免财政紧张。 ...