旧金山联储行长玛丽·戴利表示，尽管目前尚无太多迹象表明人工智能正在从根本上改变美国经济，但 政策制定者必须对新技术将产生影响的征兆保持开放态度。 来源：环球市场播报 "在变革完全显现之前识别发展迹象需要更深入挖掘，依赖能够预示转型的分类资讯，"戴利说。 戴利周二在为Silicon Valley Leadership Group活动准备的讲话中表示："很容易看到各种可能性，但更难 判断它将何时以及如何演进。" 她提到前美联储主席格林斯潘在上世纪90年代的前瞻性观察，当时他指出计算机和互联网将深刻改变工 作与商业模式，在不引发通胀的情况下推动增长。戴利表示人工智能可能会遵循类似的路径，但她补充 称，要在总体数据中看到人工智能的全面影响仍需时日。 美联储官员试图评估人工智能将对经济和生产率增长产生多大影响，而生产率被视为在不推高通胀的情 况下实现增长的关键动力。 ...

本周美联储会议纪要携PCE数据登场，中国多地市场因春节假期休市 随着本周美联储会议纪要的发布以及PCE数据的亮相，全球金融市场再次迎来了一场瞩目的焦点。在这 样的背景下，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避开了一场可能的金融风暴。 首先，美联储会议纪要的公布，为我们揭示了美联储对于未来货币政策走向的最新思考。其中可能涉及 的加息、缩表等议题，无疑将对全球金融市场产生深远影响。尤其是美元汇率的走势，将直接影响到全 球资金流向和各类资产的价格。同时，PCE数据的发布也为市场提供了更多关于美国通胀、经济增长等 方面的信息，有助于市场预测未来的利率走势。 然而，就在这样的全球金融大潮中，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避免了可能的冲击。春节作为 中国最重要的传统节日之一，市场在此期间的休市，既是尊重传统，也是对投资者的一种保护。在春节 期间，投资者有更多的时间陪伴家人，享受节日的欢乐，暂时避开市场的波动。 当然，虽然市场休市，但并不意味着中国的金融市场与全球金融市场的联系就此断开。实际上，全球金 融市场的每一次波动都可能对中国市场产生影响。因此，即使在休市期间，投资者也需要密切关注全球 金融市场的动态，以便为节后市场的 ...

日本内阁府的数据显示，私人消费、私人住宅和企业投资的增长，对第四季度的经济增长作出了贡献。 来源 | 参考消息 日本内阁府的数据显示，日本经济2024年收缩0.2%，2025年增长1.1%。 在第四季度经济增长之前，上一季度的数据为-0.6%，向下修正后为-0.7%。 据法新社2月16日报道，16日公布的官方数据显示，2025年底，日本的经济增长低于市场预期，这对最 近获得选举胜利的首相高市早苗来说是个令人失望的消息。 世界第四大经济体的国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度仅增长0.1%，低于市场预期的0.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy showed only slight growth in Q4 2025, reversing a significant contraction from the previous quarter, which supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's rationale for implementing aggressive fiscal spending policies [1] Economic Performance - Japan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months ending December, falling short of economists' median forecast of 1.6% [1] - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating weak domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years [1] - Capital spending rose by 0.2%, reflecting some investment activity despite overall economic challenges [1] Economic Recovery Insights - The data released on February 16 highlights the uneven nature of economic recovery, with growth lacking strong driving forces aside from one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced growth in the final quarter of 2025, despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, which provides the central bank with the opportunity to continue increasing interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The Japanese economy returned to growth in the last quarter of 2025, indicating resilience against external pressures [1] - The growth allows the central bank to maintain a favorable environment for further interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects strong economic growth for Morocco in 2025, driven by robust performance in agriculture, construction, and services, despite external uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is expected to grow significantly in 2025, supported by ample rainfall and increasing investments in agriculture and economic development [1] - The growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2026 [1] Inflation - The overall inflation rate in Morocco is projected to be controlled at 0.8% in 2025, aided by lower food inflation [1] - The IMF forecasts that inflation will gradually rise to around 2% by mid-2027 as economic momentum strengthens and previous interest rate cuts take effect [1] Monetary Policy - The current robust monetary policy in Morocco remains applicable, with encouragement for banks to transition towards greater flexibility in exchange rate policies to better manage inflation [1] External Economic Factors - The current account deficit is expected to widen slightly due to increased imports driven by public investment, although growth in tourism revenue and foreign direct investment will provide a buffer [1] - Morocco's foreign exchange reserves are currently adequate, but caution is advised regarding potential impacts from economic slowdowns in the Eurozone and fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Fiscal Performance - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has reached 24.6% due to tax reforms and improved tax management [1] - The fiscal deficit has narrowed to 3.5%, better than the previously anticipated 3.8% [1] - The IMF recommends increasing investments in human capital in the health and education sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced the immediate withdrawal of a 2009 EPA report that recognized the health risks associated with six greenhouse gases, which is seen as a significant legal basis for regulating emissions and promoting electric vehicle development [1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The withdrawal of the EPA report is expected to weaken the regulatory framework for greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., potentially benefiting the fossil fuel industry [1] - This decision has sparked strong legal and political backlash within the U.S., with California's governor and several environmental organizations planning to sue the federal government [1] Group 2: Political Reactions - Opponents view the administration's move as prioritizing fossil fuel interests over public health and environmental protection [1] - Republican supporters argue that excessive regulation of greenhouse gas emissions hinders economic growth [1]

美联储理事米兰： 供给端驱动的变化将推动 2026 年经济增长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

路透调查显示，尽管地缘政治风险加剧，欧洲央行仍将把存款利率至少维持在2.00%直至今年底，这将 延续自负利率时代以来最长的一段利率稳定期。 欧元区1月通胀率降至16个月最低的1.7%，促使部分政策制定者警告价格增长可能过度放缓，欧洲央行 必须做好行动准备。尽管如此，经济仍保持韧性。 路透调查显示，尽管地缘政治风险加剧，欧洲央行仍将把存款利率至少维持在2.00%直至今年底，这将 延续自负利率时代以来最长的一段利率稳定期。 在2月9日至12日的调查中，经济学家普遍维持长期预期，即利率将保持稳定，通胀接近目标水平，经济 增长保持平稳。 在74位预测人士中，有66位认为欧洲央行将至少维持利率不变至2027年，这一前景自去年10月以来未曾 改变。欧洲央行上周已连续第五次维持利率不变。 若成真，这将是新冠疫情以来最长的利率稳定期，当时持续近十年的负利率政策步入尾声。此后创纪录 的通胀迫使欧洲央行迅速加息。 Pantheon Macroeconomics首席欧元区经济学家Claus Vistesen表示："欧洲央行目前处于教科书式的理想 状态。未来六个月内，其政策路径将非常明确，要么维持在2%，要么降息。" 欧元区经济在2 ...

新华社伦敦2月12日电（记者张亚东）英国国家统计局12日公布的数据显示，在服务业等行业带动 下，2025年英国经济增长1.3%。 受美国关税政策及英国国内财政政策不确定性等因素影响，2025年英国经济增长呈"前高后低"形 态。2025年第一季度英国经济环比增长0.7%，而第四季度环比增速仅为0.1%，不及市场预期。 按行业看，2025年英国服务业产出增长1.4%，制造业产出增长0.2%，建筑业产出增长1.8%。 分析人士指出，由于财政政策不确定性消退，2026年初英国经济较去年底有所恢复。但英国通胀仍 高于目标水平，企业投资意愿不强，2026年英国经济增速预计在1%左右。2024年英国经济增长1.1%。 （完） ...