Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must analyze data to determine if artificial intelligence is driving productivity growth, enabling faster economic growth without triggering inflation or necessitating policy tightening [1] Group 1: Economic Implications - The Trump administration believes that AI investment is already contributing to productivity increases, potentially creating an economic environment similar to the 1990s tech boom, characterized by moderate inflation and accelerated growth [1] - Daly noted that most macro productivity studies have found limited evidence of significant impacts from AI so far, suggesting that improvements from sector-specific investments may take time to manifest [1] Group 2: Future Considerations - There is a possibility that the economy has not yet reached a critical point where comprehensive changes from AI are evident, indicating that substantial economic transformation may require a longer timeframe to materialize [1]

旧金山联储行长玛丽·戴利表示，尽管目前尚无太多迹象表明人工智能正在从根本上改变美国经济，但 政策制定者必须对新技术将产生影响的征兆保持开放态度。 来源：环球市场播报 "在变革完全显现之前识别发展迹象需要更深入挖掘，依赖能够预示转型的分类资讯，"戴利说。 戴利周二在为Silicon Valley Leadership Group活动准备的讲话中表示："很容易看到各种可能性，但更难 判断它将何时以及如何演进。" 她提到前美联储主席格林斯潘在上世纪90年代的前瞻性观察，当时他指出计算机和互联网将深刻改变工 作与商业模式，在不引发通胀的情况下推动增长。戴利表示人工智能可能会遵循类似的路径，但她补充 称，要在总体数据中看到人工智能的全面影响仍需时日。 美联储官员试图评估人工智能将对经济和生产率增长产生多大影响，而生产率被视为在不推高通胀的情 况下实现增长的关键动力。 ...

本周美联储会议纪要携PCE数据登场，中国多地市场因春节假期休市 随着本周美联储会议纪要的发布以及PCE数据的亮相，全球金融市场再次迎来了一场瞩目的焦点。在这 样的背景下，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避开了一场可能的金融风暴。 首先，美联储会议纪要的公布，为我们揭示了美联储对于未来货币政策走向的最新思考。其中可能涉及 的加息、缩表等议题，无疑将对全球金融市场产生深远影响。尤其是美元汇率的走势，将直接影响到全 球资金流向和各类资产的价格。同时，PCE数据的发布也为市场提供了更多关于美国通胀、经济增长等 方面的信息，有助于市场预测未来的利率走势。 然而，就在这样的全球金融大潮中，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避免了可能的冲击。春节作为 中国最重要的传统节日之一，市场在此期间的休市，既是尊重传统，也是对投资者的一种保护。在春节 期间，投资者有更多的时间陪伴家人，享受节日的欢乐，暂时避开市场的波动。 当然，虽然市场休市，但并不意味着中国的金融市场与全球金融市场的联系就此断开。实际上，全球金 融市场的每一次波动都可能对中国市场产生影响。因此，即使在休市期间，投资者也需要密切关注全球 金融市场的动态，以便为节后市场的 ...

日本内阁府的数据显示，私人消费、私人住宅和企业投资的增长，对第四季度的经济增长作出了贡献。 来源 | 参考消息 日本内阁府的数据显示，日本经济2024年收缩0.2%，2025年增长1.1%。 在第四季度经济增长之前，上一季度的数据为-0.6%，向下修正后为-0.7%。 据法新社2月16日报道，16日公布的官方数据显示，2025年底，日本的经济增长低于市场预期，这对最 近获得选举胜利的首相高市早苗来说是个令人失望的消息。 世界第四大经济体的国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度仅增长0.1%，低于市场预期的0.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy showed only slight growth in Q4 2025, reversing a significant contraction from the previous quarter, which supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's rationale for implementing aggressive fiscal spending policies [1] Economic Performance - Japan's real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months ending December, falling short of economists' median forecast of 1.6% [1] - Consumer spending, the largest component of GDP, increased by 0.1%, indicating weak domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for four consecutive years [1] - Capital spending rose by 0.2%, reflecting some investment activity despite overall economic challenges [1] Economic Recovery Insights - The data released on February 16 highlights the uneven nature of economic recovery, with growth lacking strong driving forces aside from one-off factors [1] - Signs of economic weakness are unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from raising the benchmark interest rate later in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy experienced growth in the final quarter of 2025, despite challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, which provides the central bank with the opportunity to continue increasing interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The Japanese economy returned to growth in the last quarter of 2025, indicating resilience against external pressures [1] - The growth allows the central bank to maintain a favorable environment for further interest rate hikes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects strong economic growth for Morocco in 2025, driven by robust performance in agriculture, construction, and services, despite external uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is expected to grow significantly in 2025, supported by ample rainfall and increasing investments in agriculture and economic development [1] - The growth trend is anticipated to continue into 2026 [1] Inflation - The overall inflation rate in Morocco is projected to be controlled at 0.8% in 2025, aided by lower food inflation [1] - The IMF forecasts that inflation will gradually rise to around 2% by mid-2027 as economic momentum strengthens and previous interest rate cuts take effect [1] Monetary Policy - The current robust monetary policy in Morocco remains applicable, with encouragement for banks to transition towards greater flexibility in exchange rate policies to better manage inflation [1] External Economic Factors - The current account deficit is expected to widen slightly due to increased imports driven by public investment, although growth in tourism revenue and foreign direct investment will provide a buffer [1] - Morocco's foreign exchange reserves are currently adequate, but caution is advised regarding potential impacts from economic slowdowns in the Eurozone and fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Fiscal Performance - Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has reached 24.6% due to tax reforms and improved tax management [1] - The fiscal deficit has narrowed to 3.5%, better than the previously anticipated 3.8% [1] - The IMF recommends increasing investments in human capital in the health and education sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced the immediate withdrawal of a 2009 EPA report that recognized the health risks associated with six greenhouse gases, which is seen as a significant legal basis for regulating emissions and promoting electric vehicle development [1] Group 1: Regulatory Impact - The withdrawal of the EPA report is expected to weaken the regulatory framework for greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., potentially benefiting the fossil fuel industry [1] - This decision has sparked strong legal and political backlash within the U.S., with California's governor and several environmental organizations planning to sue the federal government [1] Group 2: Political Reactions - Opponents view the administration's move as prioritizing fossil fuel interests over public health and environmental protection [1] - Republican supporters argue that excessive regulation of greenhouse gas emissions hinders economic growth [1]

美联储理事米兰： 供给端驱动的变化将推动 2026 年经济增长。 来源：滚动播报 ...

路透调查显示，尽管地缘政治风险加剧，欧洲央行仍将把存款利率至少维持在2.00%直至今年底，这将 延续自负利率时代以来最长的一段利率稳定期。 欧元区1月通胀率降至16个月最低的1.7%，促使部分政策制定者警告价格增长可能过度放缓，欧洲央行 必须做好行动准备。尽管如此，经济仍保持韧性。 路透调查显示，尽管地缘政治风险加剧，欧洲央行仍将把存款利率至少维持在2.00%直至今年底，这将 延续自负利率时代以来最长的一段利率稳定期。 在2月9日至12日的调查中，经济学家普遍维持长期预期，即利率将保持稳定，通胀接近目标水平，经济 增长保持平稳。 在74位预测人士中，有66位认为欧洲央行将至少维持利率不变至2027年，这一前景自去年10月以来未曾 改变。欧洲央行上周已连续第五次维持利率不变。 若成真，这将是新冠疫情以来最长的利率稳定期，当时持续近十年的负利率政策步入尾声。此后创纪录 的通胀迫使欧洲央行迅速加息。 Pantheon Macroeconomics首席欧元区经济学家Claus Vistesen表示："欧洲央行目前处于教科书式的理想 状态。未来六个月内，其政策路径将非常明确，要么维持在2%，要么降息。" 欧元区经济在2 ...