当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂价格迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲， 正汇聚成一股时代洪流，预示着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮超级周期。 "这轮周期的持续强度和时间，可能远超我们想象。"近日，多位基金经理向证券时报记者表达了类似的 观点。在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素共振 下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将投资 罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属和基础化工，在定位这场全球商品盛宴历史坐 标的同时，也寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 大宗商品迎来第三轮超级周期 历史从不简单重复，但总是押着相同的韵脚。 回溯百年，大宗商品的超级周期往往与全球经济格局的剧变、技术革命的浪潮以及货币体系的重构紧密 相连。如今，我们再次站在一个多重历史因素交汇的十字路口。 "2026年，非常有希望成为物价走势变局之年。"万家基金权益投资部基金经理叶勇直言，这可能触发市 场风格的重大切换，其信心主 ...

每经编辑｜吴永久 周二，上证指数小幅震荡，避险情绪刺激贵金属板块涨幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%，收报4113.65点。沪深京三市成交额达到28044亿元，较周一放 量720亿元。 消息面上，媒体报道，当地时间1月19日深夜，美国总统特朗普表示，他将对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。 由每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第82期比赛于1月19日开始，目前开赛两天，多位选手跑步入场。比赛报名时间为1月17日到1月30日，比赛时间为1月 19日到1月30日。大赛为模拟炒股，模拟资金50万元。每期比赛结束，正收益就获现金奖励！报名就拿福利！冲刺月度积分王大奖！ 每期比赛的税前现金奖励为：第1名奖励688元，第2~4名奖励188元/人，第5~10名奖励88元/人，其余正收益选手均分500元正收益奖。月度积分王的税前 现金奖励为：第1名奖励888元，第2~4名奖励288元/人，第5~10名奖励188元/人，第11~30名奖励68元/人，第31~100名奖励18元/人。 为方便选手了解有价值的信息，与高手交流市场热点和投资技巧。报名掘金大赛后，就能申请加入掘金大赛交流群，加群方法是：点击微信主页右上 角"+"号，选 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, particularly the electrolytic aluminum market, highlighting the factors driving price increases and supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Drivers**: The rise in non-ferrous metal prices is driven by multiple factors, including decreased supply elasticity, global power shortages, and emerging demands from AI data centers, which are reshaping base prices. Geopolitical risks are also prompting a reassessment of value, particularly for aluminum, which is significantly influenced by global green transitions and the AI revolution [1][3]. - **Supply-Demand Gap**: The electrolytic aluminum market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that aluminum prices may reach new highs. Current cost levels remain low, enhancing profit margins, with average valuations for electrolytic aluminum companies around 10 times expected earnings for 2026, indicating good upside potential [1][5]. - **Global Supply Growth**: Global electrolytic aluminum supply growth is slowing, with Chinese production capacity reaching its peak and European and American regions facing energy constraints and investment cycle limitations. Projections indicate a global industrial growth rate of approximately 1.4% from 2025 to 2030, with China's average growth rate expected to be only 0.3% [1][8]. - **Challenges in Europe and America**: The growth of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Europe and America is hindered by insufficient power supply and difficulties in securing power contracts. The transition to carbon neutrality is limiting investments in high-energy-consuming industries, while rising electricity demand and aging power grids increase the risk of power outages [11][12]. - **Emerging Supply Regions**: Indonesia is identified as a key emerging supply region, but its development is constrained by Chinese policies limiting new coal-fired power plants abroad, leading to slow project progress. Significant expansion will require new power plants, which involve funding, cost, and timing challenges [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Selection Criteria**: Investment strategies should focus on companies that benefit from rising aluminum prices, have high market capitalization and elasticity, possess overseas expansion capabilities, and show strong growth potential. Companies like South America International, Zhongxing Industry, and Hongqiao are highlighted as potential investment targets [6][27]. - **Aluminum Demand Trends**: Traditional and emerging demands are expected to jointly drive aluminum market growth over the next five years. Traditional demand is projected to grow at 0.2%, while emerging demand is expected to grow at 12%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [16]. - **Aluminum Substituting Copper**: The trend of aluminum replacing copper is gaining traction, particularly in the context of carbon neutrality. The demand for aluminum in sectors like new energy vehicles and home appliances is increasing, although high-end applications may take longer to transition due to performance requirements [17][18]. - **Cost Influences**: The cost of alumina is expected to fluctuate based on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes in key producing countries like Guinea, which significantly impacts the pricing of electrolytic aluminum [20][21]. - **Valuation Impact**: Current aluminum prices suggest that company valuations are below 10 times earnings. If prices rise to 30,000 yuan per ton, average valuations could compress to below 6 times, indicating a potential recovery space of over 70% [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the electrolytic aluminum market and its future outlook.

他好像真觉得自己打赢了一场世纪大战，就差放烟花庆祝了。 特朗普最近在底特律一开口，就又把老调子翻出来唱了。 他说中国成了美国最大的"纳税方"，还拍着胸脯宣称美国靠关税赢了中国。 这话听着是不是有点耳熟？ 没错，就是当年那套贸易战的说辞，只不过现在换了个地方、换了身衣服，重新上台再演一遍。 可现实哪有那么配合？ 他话音刚落没两天，中方直接甩出一记重拳——1月13日，中国商务部宣布，自2026年1月14日起，继续对原产于美国和韩国的太阳能级多晶硅产品征收反倾 销税。 税率最低53.3%，最高57%。 这可不是象征性警告，这是实打实往美国光伏产业的命门上砸。 但稍微懂点国际贸易的人都知道，关税是谁付的？ 是美国进口商，是美国消费者，是那些买中国制造的日用品、电子产品、工业零件的普通美国人。 他们才是真金白银掏钱的人。 多晶硅是什么？ 是制造太阳能电池板的核心原材料。 美国想搞绿色能源转型，绕不开它。 可现在，中国这一刀下去，等于直接掐住了他们的原料脖子。 你不是说靠关税赢了中国吗？ 那先看看自己能不能扛住这波反制再说。 特朗普的逻辑其实特别简单粗暴：美国对中国商品加征关税，收了钱，他就把这笔钱算成"中国给美国交的税 ...

1月5日，冬日的暖阳温柔洒落，漫过陕西商洛洛南县柳树洼村的白墙灰瓦，村中连绵成片的光伏板，裹 上了暖融融的光晕，在黄土坡上熠熠生辉。不远处的观光台上，慕名而来的游客三三两两驻足而立，举 着手机对着一望无际的银色"海洋"拍照留念，时不时发出几声惊叹，对这片土地的绿色转型啧啧称赞。 绿色转型驱动发展引擎，清洁电力照亮前行之路。国网陕西省电力有限公司立足陕西能源基地战略定 位，以构建新型电力系统为核心，在强网架、拓通道、优调节、促交易的实践中步履不停，让绿色电能 成为串联生态保护与经济发展的丝线，在三秦大地上织就出一幅产业兴、百姓富、生态美的壮丽画卷。 电网强基 筑牢绿电奔腾硬支撑 陕西商洛洛南县吸引众多游客观光的光伏基地，是陕西倾力打造的100兆瓦光伏农业与观光旅游综合利 用示范项目——"光伏农场"。自并网运行以来，项目不仅实现了地上发电、地面农业、厂区观光的融合 发展，更为周边4个村带来稳定分红，通过打造特色种植示范区，让绿电真正成为赋能乡村振兴的"金钥 匙"。 网架织锦绣，银线越山河。绿色能源转型串联起城乡烟火，更牵起产业的兴旺、百姓的富足。三秦大地 上，一幅由绿色电能铺就的高质量发展长卷，正在徐徐展开，为能 ...

市场数据显露出库存告急的信号。2022年全球白银库存遭受"重创"，伦敦金库白银库存当年减少近1万吨。尽管后续跨市场套利 行为使得部分白银回流，但在光伏、新能源车及AI等强劲产业需求的拉动下，库存消耗速度依然惊人。2024年全球光伏用银需 求较2022年增长约67%，随着2025年光伏电池产量再创新高，工业端对白银的争夺将进一步加剧库存的紧张局面。 分析人士指出，当前白银市场的表现是商品属性在特定阶段超越金融属性的主导现象。历史上，白银作为黄金的"附属品"波 动，但随着其在新能源和高科技领域不可替代的作用增强，其定价逻辑正在重构。虽然短期金银比已处于历史低位，价格波动 风险加剧，但考虑到全球白银库存的低位运行以及工业需求的长期刚性支撑，白银的牛市行情或许尚未结束。不过，若价格进 一步飙升至每盎司100美元上方，工业用户可能会通过增加库存或寻找替代材料来应对，届时市场供需关系将面临新的博弈与平 衡。（文馨） 在工业生产领域，白银的重要性正在经历前所未有的提升。作为所有金属中导电性最强的材料，白银在绿色能源转型和数字化 转型中扮演着"下一代金属"的核心角色。它能提升太阳能电池板的能量转换效率、加速数据中心的数据处理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has been a leader among oil majors in transitioning its business from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources [1] Group 1 - The company is recognized for its proactive approach in shifting its business model [1]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices, breaking the $90 per ounce mark, is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalance, geopolitical tensions, and financial market uncertainties, leading to a "silver storm" in the investment landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is tightening due to stagnant mine production and insufficient industrial recycling, with exchange inventories at a ten-year low [1]. - Demand for silver is increasing significantly, driven by the solar energy sector's rising silver consumption per megawatt, and the growing reliance on conductive silver paste in electric vehicles and AI chip manufacturing [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts describe the current silver market as being in the center of a "perfect storm," with short-term supply shortages and long-term industrial demand driven by green energy transitions [3]. - Predictions suggest that if silver prices exceed $100, it could trigger algorithmic trading and retail investor speculation, leading to a new short squeeze [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Silver is transitioning from a secondary asset to a primary focus in asset allocation, with increased interest in silver ETFs, silver stocks, and physical silver bars among ordinary investors [3]. - Despite the excitement, there is a cautionary note regarding high volatility and the historical tendency for precious metals to experience sharp corrections following significant price increases [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The $90 mark is viewed as a test of market confidence, with the potential for silver prices to approach 30 RMB per gram, raising questions about whether this "white gold" boom represents an opportunity or a bubble [3].

Core Insights - The recent halt in Reliance Industries' plans to produce lithium batteries in India highlights the challenges faced by even the most powerful companies in the clean energy supply chain due to technological limitations [1][5] - The situation underscores the broader difficulties in India's ambitious green energy goals, particularly in securing critical technology from countries like China [5][7] Company Overview - Reliance Industries is a significant player in India's business landscape, involved in various sectors including petrochemicals, telecommunications, retail, and renewable energy [3] - The company had planned to start battery production this year, relying on technology licensing from a Chinese firm, but negotiations fell through due to restrictions on technology transfer [3][5] Industry Challenges - The halt in battery production reflects the high concentration of core battery technology and industrial experience in a few countries, with China being at the center [5][8] - The transition to green energy requires not just financial investment but also a mature and stable industrial capability, which India currently lacks in the battery sector [5][7] Geopolitical Factors - The limitations on technology transfer are rooted in long-term institutional policies, complicating negotiations for Indian companies [7][8] - The disconnect between commercial logic and national policy can restrict corporate options, leading to delays in achieving green energy goals [7][8] Future Outlook - Despite the setback, Reliance's green ambitions remain intact, but the company will need to navigate complex diplomatic and industrial challenges to realize its plans [8] - The timeline for the battery factory's completion is critical, as delays could push back India's carbon neutrality targets [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The core investment opportunities for the next five years are centered around "global re-industrialization," driven by changes in geopolitical dynamics, the AI technology revolution, and a collective commitment to sustainable development [1][3]. Group 1: Global Re-industrialization - Global re-industrialization is driven by three main factors: geopolitical changes prompting countries to reassess supply chain security, the AI technology revolution leading to unprecedented investments in computing power and energy, and a commitment to sustainable development transforming green energy from a concept into actionable infrastructure projects [3]. - Chinese enterprises are participating in global re-industrialization through three pathways: initial type focusing on supply-side constraints, resource type extending downstream processing, and承接型 embedding into new supply chains to leverage manufacturing advantages [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to see a favorable investment window as industrial enterprise turnover rates and capacity utilization begin to rise, with a stable liquidity outlook for 2026 [5]. - Two main investment themes for 2026 are identified: 1. Embracing "reasonably valued winning assets," particularly manufacturing leaders with international competitiveness and stable profitability, such as those in the chemical industry [6]. 2. Exploring "potentially elastic betting assets," focusing on cyclical and certain consumer goods, where demand recovery could lead to significant price elasticity [7]. Group 3: Investment Products - A range of investment products is available for those interested in global re-industrialization, including index funds and actively managed funds targeting sectors like communication equipment, new materials, and green energy [9].