前言 当前，美国正处于高利率与通胀缓慢回落的微妙阶段。 经济数据表现混乱，再加上川普不断制造不确定性，使得整体经济走势并不稳健。 本篇内容将围绕"美国通胀与美联储降息"两个核心话题，做一次简要梳理与分析。 美国通胀与美联储降息 目前美国通胀整体呈现 持续下行 趋势，但经济数据表现不一，呈现一定程度的"混乱"状态。一 方面，如密歇根大学的消费者调研显示情绪较为乐观；另一方面，零售数据却低于预期，反映出 消费端的疲软。 这种背景下，美国经济处于一个"没完全变好，也没一致变坏"的状态，而美联储也因此表现出" 不急于行动 "的态度。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE | 200-225 | 225-250 | 250-275 275-300 | | 300-325 325-350 | | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400 ...

(一)思辨之一：如何理解美元指数长期趋势与美国经济占比反向 1、现象：美国经济占比下，但美元指数上 后金融危机时代，美国经济占比与美元指数出现长周期的背离——美国经济占比持续回落，但美元指数 上行。2008年金融危机之前，美元指数的大型起伏波折与美国经济占比正相关。但金融危机以来，美国 经济占比持续走低，美元指数却开启震荡上行周期，震荡中枢约为103-104，对应美元指数历史同水平 时期美国经济占比达27%-28%。 2、原因：流动性大宽松+欧日并不强 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研究报告称，基于美元指数两个背离(长期与经济占比"脱钩"，短期 与十债利率反向)的思辨，需要重新审视并修正"美元将开启持续单边下跌向 70-80年代看齐"的叙事。实 际上，中期视角而言，考虑到美国相对欧日经济增速差或仍然占优、当下全球养老资管机构因美元波动 率上行补美元空仓的交易或已比较极致，美元下跌最快的时候或已过去，未来半年到一年或难言美元持 续下行，反而可能需要警惕因仓位演绎较为充分带来的美元反弹风险。 美元还会继续弱吗？——基于两个背离下的美元叙事修正 近期市场各种关于美元的宏大叙事(比如"去美元化")大行其道，但宏大叙 ...

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天风证券研报表示，6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。总体来看，特朗普政府政策不 确定性之下，美联储将保持谨慎，耐心等待更明确的降息信号。美联储主席鲍威尔的表态相对偏鹰。关 于就业，鲍威尔指出就业增长确实有所下降，但失业率仍在较低水平，劳动力供需都在同步下降。关于 通胀，鲍威尔表示"我们预计未来几个月将出现显著的通胀"，并指出关税对商品价格的影响是需要传导 时间的。下次降息的门槛仍然较高。我们认为9月降息落地仍有一定难度，下一次降息或许需要等待更 长时间（或在今年四季度）。通胀风险仍偏高，而失业率上行较慢，美联储或宁愿等待更长时间，而不 是先发制人犯下错误。3、总言之，9月美联储降息落地需要满足的条件，要么通胀在暑期继续下行、要 么失业率快速上升，目前看来都有一定难度。美联储或维持观望更长时间，叠加财政和关税政策的不确 定性，下半年美债仍有上行风险。 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、外部扰动恶化概率不大，国内仍聚焦科技 2、美国数招并用撑美债，极端唱衰下的可能机会 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 今天市场的波动性仍在加大，国内三大指数基本都收跌，这主要是海外消息不断施压的结果。从全球市 场来看，并非只有中国市场在下跌。欧洲市场、美国期货市场以及东亚市场也都承受了较大冲击。 目前比较令人担心的是以色列和伊朗冲突的扩大化。最近两天，美国不断释放消息，甚至采取极限施压 手段，对伊朗开出了打击时间表。据美国媒体报道，美国可能在本周末就采取行动。如果美国真的介 入，金融市场，尤其是较为敏感的股票市场，可能会率先做出反应，先跌为敬。但到目前为止，该事件 持续恶化并对金融市场造成重创的概率其实并不大。 我们来看两个细节。首先，美国内部对这件事存在分歧。特别是之前支持特朗普上台的美国共和党关键 人物以及普通选民，他们认为特朗普的主要精力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that May's inflation and export data are weak, leading to a continued loose state of interbank liquidity and a slight decline in government bond yields [1] - The U.S. inflation weakening and cooling employment have expanded expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.64%, with a change of -1.1 basis points from the previous week [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing probability of global economic recession risks due to uncertainties in the global macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Domestic monetary policy easing is less than expected, leading to risks of rising funding prices, while the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies is also below expectations, resulting in declining financing demand [1] - The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts contributes to a complex and severe global political situation, with ongoing deterioration and expansion of geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury ETF (511260) employs an optimized sampling replication strategy to closely track the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year Treasury Index, selecting highly liquid government bonds to construct its portfolio [1] - The current average duration of the portfolio is 7.6 years, and it publishes a daily PCF list, ensuring transparency in holdings, making it suitable for medium to long-term investors seeking stable returns [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]

Group 1 - The core focus of the US-Japan tariff negotiations is the trade deficit, with Japan's strong stance against making unprincipled concessions to the US [1] - Japan holds significant leverage in the negotiations due to its substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds, which could impact the US economy if sold off [1] - Japan's proposal includes a comprehensive cooperation plan targeting China in key areas such as rare earths, semiconductors, and liquefied natural gas [3][5] Group 2 - Japan aims to reduce the trade deficit with the US while aligning with US efforts to counter China's technological advancements [3] - The internal divisions within the US negotiation team complicate the discussions, with differing views among key officials [5] - The historical context of US-Japan relations shows a shift from a subordinate relationship to a more balanced negotiation dynamic, with Japan leveraging its economic position [8]

Group 1 - The investment environment is characterized as "tricky, uneven but full of opportunities," influenced by rising inflation risks, high long-term interest rates, and strong performance in sectors like nuclear energy and defense [1] - The market has seemingly priced in the rebound of inflation, with Goldman Sachs predicting core PCE to rise from 2.5% to 3.6% by year-end due to tariffs [2][4] - The U.S. 30-year interest rates have shown some easing recently, but Goldman Sachs believes the market will remain vigilant during long-term bond auction cycles [7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar faces challenges as it remains relatively expensive according to various valuation models, leading to a divergence between the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [9][10] - The real estate sector presents a complex outlook, with long-term interest rate risks and weak supply-demand dynamics threatening builders' stocks, yet a long-term bullish trend indicates resilience [12] - Defense stocks have performed exceptionally well, with Goldman Sachs' Korean defense stock basket up 127% year-to-date, alongside strong performances from European and Japanese defense stocks [14][16] Group 3 - Global technology companies are showing superior earnings growth compared to non-tech firms, with significant changes in capital expenditure following the emergence of ChatGPT [20][22] - The gap between U.S. AI leaders and laggards continues to widen, with AI deployment following a pattern of "slow, slow, slow, then a rapid acceleration" [23] - Despite a significant increase in new issuance activities, companies are engaging in large-scale buybacks, indicating a strong market pricing dynamic [24][28] Group 4 - Value storage tools like gold and Bitcoin have performed well in terms of total return and Sharpe ratio, while U.S. high-yield bonds have also shown surprising Sharpe ratios [30] - The U.S. stock market has underperformed compared to global peers, with U.S. tech stocks showing unexpectedly slow performance since the beginning of the year [31]

日内瓦联合声明发布后，中美贸易战虽然没有完全结束，但因为关税引发的紧张局势得到了极大缓解。不仅如此，特朗普还主动表示，由于不能和所有经济 体都进行谈判，所以要设定新的关税。不难发现，在关税问题上，特朗普似乎打算就此打住，至少不想让局面僵持下去。 因为特朗普这一系列政策的背后，根本目的还是解决财政问题。加征关税能够缓解财政压力的效果始终是有限，而且加税本身就只是手段，目的是为了以此 为要挟，施压他国在其他议题上让步，比如说美债"借旧还新"、"向美国支付更多保护费"等等。但由于中方的强势反击，在全球范围内起到了很好的示范效 应，日本、欧盟这些原本可以轻松讹诈的对象，如今对美国的态度都非常强硬。随着暂缓加征"对等关税"期限的临近，特朗普也只能作罢，给自己找台阶 下。 所以特朗普在对华主动让步，在关税问题上暂时"休兵"后，立马将目标瞄准国内。据观察者网报道，当地时间5月17日，特朗普在社交平台上发帖，严厉警 告美国最大的零售商沃尔玛，不得以关税为由涨价。而就在前不久，美国诸多零售巨头因为关税带来的成本上涨，不仅考虑涨价，而且还要在明细中标出消 费者因为关税所需要多支付的价格。这不仅可能会引发通胀反弹，而且这笔账还会被 ...