Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, linked to overspending on the Fed's headquarters renovation, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the stability of the global financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - The investigation has led to increased market uncertainty, with a shift in capital towards safer assets, as evidenced by a drop in the dollar index and a surge in gold prices, which recently surpassed $4600 [1][8]. - The VIX fear index's fluctuations indicate that market expectations are becoming unstable, potentially leading to chaotic financial transactions [2][4]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The investigation reflects deeper issues regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for presidential interference in monetary policy, which could undermine confidence in the dollar [2][3]. - If inflation in the U.S. spirals out of control, investors may reassess asset pricing based on Federal Reserve policies, further destabilizing the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Flows and China's Financial Market - The investigation has prompted a re-evaluation of capital flows, with international funds increasingly directed towards China, driven by the country's stable economic policies and growth potential [6][7]. - China's financial system is evolving, with a focus on creating a robust financial infrastructure that enhances its attractiveness to global investors [7]. Group 4: Asset Price Volatility - The current volatility in asset prices, particularly in the stock and gold markets, is closely tied to the dollar's international reserve status, with potential implications for future market stability [8][9]. - Ordinary investors are advised to maintain sustainable cash flow and wait for appropriate entry points in the market, rather than chasing high prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on the stability of US-China relations is a response to recent concerns about potential disruptions to Trump's planned visit to China, indicating that the relationship has not reached a breaking point despite external pressures [1][2]. Group 1: US-China Relations - The US Secretary of Commerce's statement aims to alleviate public concerns regarding Trump's visit to China, reaffirming the stability of US-China relations amidst recent unfriendly actions from the US [1]. - The US has taken actions that could negatively impact China, such as pressuring Venezuela to sever economic ties with China and imposing strict policies on Iran, which could indirectly affect US-China relations [1][2]. - If the US imposes tariffs on China due to trade issues with Iran, it would escalate tensions and potentially jeopardize Trump's visit, highlighting the need for the US to maintain stable relations with China [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - The US has a pressing need to stabilize relations with China, particularly due to China's dominant position in global rare earth supply, which the US cannot afford to overlook [4]. - Trump's focus on the upcoming midterm elections adds urgency to maintaining a cooperative relationship with China, as deteriorating relations could harm the US economy, especially in agricultural exports [6]. - Trump's visit to China could serve as a crucial strategy for his re-election campaign, emphasizing the importance of avoiding provocations against China to ensure the visit proceeds smoothly [7].

报道称，根据民调以及历史规律，非执政党通常在中期选举中表现更好，因此民主党有望于11月在国会中扩大优势。特朗普对此表示不满，并称"这涉及某 种深层的心理因素"。 特朗普去年12月就曾表示，尽管他认为自己执政近一年来在经济方面取得了成功，但他所在的共和党仍有可能在明年的国会中期选举中失利。今年1月6日， 特朗普又在华盛顿举行的众议院共和党籍议员会议上表示，共和党必须赢得今年国会改选、即中期选举，否则他可能遭到民主党人弹劾。 美国中期选举定于今年11月举行，届时将改选众议院所有席位和参议院三分之一席位。在当前党派分歧日益加剧的情况下，共和党若失去参众任何一院多数 地位，都将影响特朗普后续执政。 对于这一表态，白宫新闻秘书莱维特15日晚些时候表示，特朗普此番言论"纯属玩笑"且"带有戏谑意味"，并向记者解释说他的意思是："我们干得这么 好……也许就该继续干下去。" 【环球网报道】据美联社、美国《福布斯》杂志网站报道，在多次对共和党可能在中期选举中失去国会控制权一事表示担忧之后，美国总统特朗普在路透社 15日发布的采访中表示，他认为美国"甚至不该"在11月举行中期选举。白宫随后对此作出回应，称特朗普当时"只是开玩笑"。 ...

【白宫：#特朗普称不举行中期选举是开玩笑#】#特朗普称只是在开玩笑#据新华社消息，美国白宫发言 人莱维特15日表示，美国总统特朗普此前在媒体专访中暗示美国"根本就不应该"在今年11月举行中期选 举的言论"只是在开玩笑"。美国中期选举定于今年11月举行，届时将改选国会众议院所有席位和参议院 三分之一席位。在当前党争加剧的情况下，共和党若失去参众任何一院的多数地位，都将影响特朗普后 续执政。（视频为此前报道 来源：CGTN） 转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The article predicts that the market focus in 2026 will shift towards the "U.S. midterm election cycle + global demand recovery," which may lead to a temporary easing of geopolitical pressures [1][2][24] - The U.S. is entering a midterm election year, which is expected to elevate domestic political agendas and create conditions for the recovery of local manufacturing, supported by strong fiscal policy expectations [1][2][24] - Global market risk appetite is anticipated to remain high at least until expectations are fulfilled or exhausted, with emerging market fundamentals expected to remain resilient [1][2][24] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S.-China relationship is expected to maintain a "fight but not break" phase, with the intensity of competition being manageable due to the midterm election dynamics and key issues like rare earths [3][26] - Three variables are likely to influence the pace of U.S.-China relations: the midterm election schedule, the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, and adjustments in the U.S. National Security Strategy [3][26] Group 3: U.S.-Europe Relations - The EU's "de-risking" stance is shifting from passive to active, with an increase in the probability of localized trade disruptions, although the overall impact on the EU's policies remains uncertain [15] - The EU has updated its economic security framework, introducing six high-risk priority areas and six "de-risking" policy tools, which may have direct implications for China [15][16] Group 4: Asia-Pacific Dynamics - The U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes the role of allies in regional security, with Japan seeking to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. to enhance its geopolitical influence [15] - Relations between South Korea and China may remain balanced, with South Korea adopting a flexible stance towards China while cooperating in traditional trade areas [15] Group 5: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to maintain demand vitality in 2026, with ASEAN and India showing strong demand for Chinese exports, while Africa is projected to experience a mild recovery [21] - The economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries is anticipated to deepen, with a focus on both new and traditional energy sectors [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. inflation is expected to remain subdued by December 2025, with core inflation slightly below expectations and food inflation on the rise [1] - The outlook for U.S. inflation may ease this year, as tariff impacts on prices are likely to diminish, while service inflation is expected to maintain a relatively ideal moderate growth rate [1] - The cost of living is a key issue in the U.S. midterm elections, with Trump's recent directives for the two housing finance agencies to purchase MBS and limit credit card interest rates likely aimed at addressing voter concerns about affordability [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the ongoing criminal investigation into Powell by U.S. prosecutors is unlikely to pressure the Federal Reserve into aggressive rate cuts, with expectations for the Fed to pause rate cuts in January and to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [1]

Group 1 - Trump's decision to impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% on India is a significant escalation in trade tensions, reflecting dissatisfaction with India's oil purchases from Russia [1][3][5] - The U.S. has already increased tariffs on India to 50% prior to this announcement, indicating a rapid escalation in trade policy [5] - The Indian stock market reacted negatively, with the technology sector dropping by 2.5% shortly after the announcement [5] Group 2 - In response to U.S. actions, Indian refineries have begun to halt new orders from Russia and increase imports of crude oil from the U.S., although India remains reliant on Russian oil due to its low prices [7] - The U.S. military's operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Maduro, is part of a broader strategy to secure oil resources, with plans to acquire 30 to 50 million barrels of oil from Venezuela [9][11] - Major U.S. oil companies are hesitant to invest in Venezuela due to concerns over political instability, despite the U.S. government's aggressive stance [13] Group 3 - The political landscape in the U.S. is precarious for Trump, with recent resignations and deaths among key Republican supporters raising concerns about his majority in Congress [15] - Trump's actions are seen as a strategy to bolster his political standing ahead of upcoming midterm elections, using international incidents to project strength [22][25] - The international community is increasingly critical of U.S. unilateral actions, suggesting a shift in global attitudes towards American dominance [17][27]

宁证期货投资咨询中心 Z0012851 F3008987 宽幅震荡，大周期不变 摘 要： 2025 年全球经济在承压状态下缓慢复苏，全球经济新的增长点和拉动力量 没有显著出现，百年未有之大变局加速演化，美元信用担忧加剧，以上各种因素 叠加使得黄金走出历史性的大涨行情，而人工智能对贵金属的需求预期，供需紧 平衡的结构同样使得白银走出了历史上最为剧烈的补涨行情。展望 2026 年，全 球经济或依然处于一个缓慢复苏的状态，虽然美国中期选举或使得国际地缘冲突 暂时有所减弱，但是百年未有之大变局持续演化的趋势不会改变，货币多元化和 美元信用的长期走弱的趋势不会改变，这些因素依然对贵金属长期上涨趋势存在 支撑，但经历了 2025 年的大涨行情之后，或存在阶段性的震荡回调、再蓄势的 过程，2026 年贵金属应重点把握结构性的机会。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 曹宝琴 投资咨询证号： 展望 2026 年，市场普遍预期，美国中期选举或使得特朗普政府的主要矛盾 指向美国内部两党的席位之争，目前市场预期为共和党或依然保持对参议院的控 制权，但是有可能失去众议院的控制权，如果这样的预期兑现，国际地缘或保持 ...

美国中期选举定于今年11月举行，届时，众议院所有席位和参议院三分之一席位将面临改选。 中新网1月7日电 据路透社报道，当地时间6日，美国总统特朗普表示，他所属的共和党必须赢得 2026年的国会改选、即中期选举，否则他可能遭到民主党人弹劾。 据报道，特朗普在华盛顿举行的共和党籍议员会议上表示："你们必须赢得中期选举，因为如果我 们输掉中期选举，他们会找理由弹劾我。" ...

据美国哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)3日报道，美国总统特朗普下令对委内瑞拉境内的目标进行打击，其中 包括军事设施。 据美国哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)3日报道，消息人士称，美国总统特朗普在数日前就批准了对委内瑞拉 的打击。 据两名不愿透露姓名的美国官员透露，特朗普在实际行动发生前数日就批准了美军对委内瑞拉进行打 击。这两名官员在匿名的情况下接受了采访。 消息人士称，军方官员曾讨论在圣诞节当天执行这项任务，但美军在尼日利亚对ISIS目标的空袭行动优 先于此。 报道称，圣诞节后的几天里，美国军方官员看到了更多潜在的打击窗口，但由于天气原因，行动一度被 推迟。官员们表示，美军希望选择有利于任务成功的天气条件。 多轮极限施压：军事集结与政策升级 在此次行动前，美国已对委内瑞拉形成多维度高压态势。2025年3月，美方将约200名委内瑞拉移民空运 驱逐出境——路透社指出，这标志着特朗普第二任期开始对委政策转向强硬。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普的言辞也愈发咄咄逼人。 他不仅多次警告"地面打击即将开始"，还在11月29日宣布关闭委领空。在美军"福特"号航母、F-35战机 和核潜艇相继抵达加勒比地区后，美军12月初又接连在委内瑞拉周围 ...