对于财经读者而言，这本书不仅仅是一部历史著作，更是一部关于 国家兴衰的经济学巨著 。钱乘旦教授以 深厚的学术功底，系统梳理了15世纪以来九个世界大国的崛起轨迹，揭示了国家兴衰背后的经济逻辑与制 度密码。 大国兴衰的经济学解读 五百年来大国竞合的背后，是一场关于财富创造与制度创新的全球博弈。 近期，北京大学出版社推出的《风起云飞扬：钱乘旦讲大国崛起》引起了知识界的广泛关注。作为北京大 学博雅讲席教授、著名历史学家钱乘旦的最新力作，这本书基于他在北京大学备受欢迎的"大国崛起"课程整 理而成。 钱乘旦教授强调，大国的兴衰往往与时代变革紧密相连， 丧失引领能力即意味着地位的丧失 。一个称雄世 界的强势国家一般周期是一两百年，随后新的大国会兴起，而 犯错误最少的国家最容易出线 。 这一观点对当前全球经济格局具有深刻的启示意义。作为当前的世界大国，美国的地位可以用" 绝对优势、 相对下降 "来总结，这一判断为思考未来全球经济增长极的变化提供了历史视角。 对中国式现代化的启示 钱乘旦对"世界大国"给出了一个精确定义："从资本主义世界体系开始形成起， 对世界的整体发展和格局变 化产生重大影响的国家 。"这一定义包含两个关键词 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the New Structural Economics Research Center at Fuzhou University and the keynote speech by Professor Lin Yifu highlight the need for innovative economic theories that address the profound changes in the global political and economic landscape, particularly for developing countries [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The establishment ceremony of the New Structural Economics Research Center and the 707th Jiaxi Forum took place at Fuzhou University, attended by over 500 participants including government officials, academicians, and students [1]. - The event was co-hosted by Fuzhou University Library, the School of Economics and Management, and the Academic Affairs Office [1]. Group 2: Keynote Insights - Professor Lin Yifu analyzed the deep implications of the "unprecedented changes in a century," emphasizing that traditional Western theories are insufficient for the development practices of developing countries [5]. - He elaborated on the New Structural Economics as a system of independent theoretical innovation, focusing on factor endowment structures and the endogenous nature of economic structures [5]. - Lin stressed the importance of the synergy between "effective markets" and "proactive governments" in promoting high-quality economic development [5]. - He proposed that China should leverage its comparative advantages by combining the latecomer advantages of traditional industries with the innovative opportunities of the digital economy to drive industrial upgrading and high-quality development [5]. Group 3: Academic and Cultural Impact - The Jiaxi Forum provided a valuable opportunity for students and faculty to engage directly with top scholars, enhancing academic perspectives and fostering theoretical confidence and cultural awareness [11]. - The event is seen as significant for promoting campus cultural development and academic discipline growth [11].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, marked by the breakdown of the US-India alliance and the thawing of US-Russia relations, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: US-India Relations - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports, signaling a deterioration in US-India relations [1]. - Modi's visit to China, after seven years, is seen as an attempt to pressure the US regarding tariff negotiations, highlighting the unraveling of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy [3]. - The initial optimism for a trade agreement between the US and India has dissipated due to harsh tariff conditions imposed by the US, leading to a breakdown in negotiations [3]. Group 2: US-Europe Relations - The US has sidelined Europe in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, with the US and Russia planning a bilateral meeting without European involvement [5]. - Trump's administration has expressed dissatisfaction with European military spending and trade deficits, viewing European contributions as inadequate [7]. - The EU's trade surplus with the US amounted to €198.2 billion last year, which contradicts Trump's "America First" policy [7]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Shifts - The rise of populism and extreme right-wing movements in Western societies, along with increasing unilateralism, is contributing to a fragmented international order [9]. - Trump's tariffs and withdrawal from international agreements are exacerbating global tensions and signaling a potential shift towards a multipolar world [9][11]. - The outcome of these geopolitical changes presents both challenges and opportunities for China, as the US may seek to consolidate its alliances against China while also facing potential discontent from its allies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by Hualong Securities aimed to gather insights from various experts and industry leaders to discuss new development opportunities amidst changing circumstances [1][5]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference featured over 500 attendees and was broadcasted through five live channels, attracting more than 80,000 views [5]. - Hualong Securities' Chairman, Qi Jianbang, emphasized the importance of collaboration and professional empowerment to capture opportunities and build consensus for market stability [5]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Zhang Qingmin analyzed the global political and economic trends, discussing the profound changes in the global landscape and China's modernization achievements [6]. - Ma Guangyuan provided a macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025, highlighting the need for China to strengthen internal dynamics through structural reforms and consumption activation [6]. - Liu Shiyan focused on solid-state battery technology, detailing the advantages of dry electrode processes in energy efficiency and cost control [6]. - Pan Zhengze discussed lithium battery technology trends, including the evolution of silicon-carbon anodes and solid-state battery commercialization [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hualong Securities analysts provided insights into investment strategies across various sectors, including automotive, electric power, computing, and media, assessing transformation trends and growth potential for the second half of the year [7]. - The company plans to maintain its commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and win-win cooperation while continuing to enhance its research capabilities [7].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant global changes and challenges faced by China in the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the need for a strategic response to external pressures and economic adjustments [2] - The book "Diagnosing: Global Changes and China's Economy" by Professor Gao Bo provides a comprehensive analysis of the structural changes in the global economic order and the profound transformation of China's economic ecology, linking historical patterns to current trends [4] - The author identifies three major historical cycles—globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions—that are resonating simultaneously, similar to events leading to major global conflicts in the past century [4] Group 2 - The book posits that China's future economic growth model can be driven by two main forces: innovation-supported investment and rising real wages supporting consumption, termed as "strengthening the foundation" and "resting and recuperating" [4] - The expansion of China's domestic consumption market is directly linked to its strength in international political and economic negotiations, influencing both macroeconomic performance and foreign investment attraction [5] - The transition to a consumption-driven growth model is seen as a necessary step for China to align with developed nations, focusing on increasing the share of the tertiary sector, improving public services, and ensuring relative income equality [5]

Core Insights - The event held by China Mobile Global Communication in Nanjing featured Professor Jin Canrong discussing the evolution of the global landscape and its implications for the future [1][3] Group 1: International Landscape - Professor Jin highlighted the historical shift in global power dynamics, indicating a transition from a Western-dominated order to a new paradigm led by emerging economies, particularly China [3][5] - He emphasized that the current global turmoil stems from the historical turning point of "East rising, West declining," marking the end of a 500-year Western dominance [3][5] Group 2: Future Predictions - Jin proposed a future international structure characterized by "two superpowers and multiple strong nations," with the U.S. and China at the core, while countries like Russia and India will play significant roles [5] - He noted that the long-term nature of U.S.-China competition will significantly influence the trajectory of the century's changes, citing four key advantages for China: industrial strength, large population, resilient culture, and organizational capability [5] Group 3: Impact on Businesses - Attendees expressed that the lecture broadened their understanding of international dynamics, providing valuable insights for personal career development and corporate strategic decision-making [7] - Local business representatives found the strategies discussed for navigating globalization particularly relevant, aiding in clarifying their development direction in a complex environment [7] Group 4: Brand and Knowledge Sharing - The successful Nanjing event underscored China Mobile's commitment to knowledge empowerment and its role in facilitating intellectual exchange among users [9] - The company plans to leverage its core advantages to provide diverse insights and innovative pathways for clients to tackle challenges and seize opportunities in the evolving landscape [9]

Group 1 - The seminar titled "Breaking the Game and Restructuring: Opportunities and Challenges for Foshan Enterprises under Global Changes" was held in Foshan, focusing on the challenges and opportunities faced by local enterprises in the context of significant global changes [1] - Foshan, as a major manufacturing city, is at a critical stage of transitioning from old to new driving forces, emphasizing the need for a coordinated approach to navigate crises and seize new opportunities [1] - The local government and enterprises are committed to supporting national strategies and facilitating the stable transition of Foshan's economic drivers, with financial institutions playing a crucial role in aiding enterprise transformation and upgrading [1] Group 2 - Huang Qifan's keynote speech highlighted China's strategic transformation in foreign trade, emphasizing a new development pattern that promotes domestic and international dual circulation [3] - Huang identified five strategic advantages for China, including a large-scale market, industrial chain clusters, financial safeguards, technological self-reliance, and a firm commitment to openness [3] Group 3 - Qiu Zhenhai's speech addressed the challenges and opportunities for Chinese enterprises in the context of the Trump era, urging entrepreneurs to abandon illusions and prepare for transformation [5] - He emphasized the importance of recognizing trends and becoming pioneers rather than engaging in blind efforts [5] Group 4 - The "Foshan Business Forum" aims to unite local entrepreneurs and enhance the Foshan brand, with plans for ongoing events to encourage an open attitude towards change and promote high-quality economic development [7] - The initiative focuses on the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the cultivation of future industries to "recreate a new Foshan" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of macroeconomic analysis in understanding global economic trends and the role of financial services in supporting the real economy [2][12]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Chen Dafei, the Chief Macro Analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Research, has 8 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on global macroeconomics, monetary policy, and liquidity [3]. - Chen's career includes positions at Dongfang Securities and Guojin Securities, where he led macro research teams before joining Shenwan Hongyuan Research in August 2024 [3]. Group 2: Research Insights - The significance of overseas macro research has grown since 2018, particularly due to the evolving US-China trade relations and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a resurgence of inflation [5][6]. - Chen emphasizes a paradigm shift from a "low interest rate era" to a "high volatility era," where monetary policy becomes crucial in managing inflation [5]. - His research methodology involves a unified approach of "facts-theory-history," focusing on current facts, theoretical understanding, and historical comparisons to deepen insights [9]. Group 3: Professional Development - For newcomers in the industry, a genuine passion for research is essential, as it drives continuous learning and discovery [10]. - Deep thinking skills, supported by a broad knowledge base, are critical for effective economic research [10]. - Proficiency in AI tools is increasingly necessary to enhance research efficiency, paralleling the importance of traditional office software [11]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The relationship between finance and the real economy is characterized by both unity and opposition, with financial services playing a vital role in promoting high-quality economic development [12]. - Financial systems exhibit pro-cyclical behavior, which can extend economic expansion but may also lead to instability during downturns [12]. - Long-term economic growth is driven by technological innovation, with finance playing a crucial role in supporting research and development [12]. Group 5: Cultural Influence - The integration of party-building culture within Shenwan Hongyuan Research enhances personal growth and professional thinking, aligning with the broader strategic goals of the organization [14].