Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China is transforming market opportunities into tangible returns for investors, with the Huashang Upstream Industry Equity Fund showing outstanding performance in the medium to long term [1][9]. Performance Summary - As of the end of 2025, the Huashang Upstream Industry Equity Fund A class has achieved a five-year return of 159.87%, ranking first among 446 similar funds [2][10]. - The fund's one-year return is 82.99%, providing a positive holding experience for investors [1][10]. - Over the past three years, the fund has a return of 90.94%, ranking 29th among 739 similar funds [2][10]. Fund Management - Zhang Wenlong, the fund manager since March 2022, has over 7 years of experience in the securities industry, including 5.3 years in research and 2.3 years in investment [11][13]. - Zhang employs a systematic methodology that focuses on the industrial lifecycle and valuation, aiming for absolute returns and selecting quality targets based on brand, channel, and supply chain [11][13]. Market Outlook - Zhang believes that the current domestic economy is stable, with "anti-involution competition" being a key aspect of price governance [13]. - He anticipates that the weak dollar will provide additional yield sources for emerging markets, and the RMB may enter a phase of gradual appreciation [13]. - The long-term performance of the market remains promising due to China's effective risk management and attractive asset valuations [13]. Fund Characteristics - The Huashang Upstream Industry Equity Fund was established on December 27, 2017, and modified its investment scope on December 28, 2020, to include depositary receipts [15]. - The performance benchmark for the fund is a combination of the CSI Upstream Resource Industry Index and the CSI All Bond Index [15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a hot 2025, but is currently in a phase of consolidation in early 2026, with significant performance differences across sectors and styles. The future market outlook remains optimistic due to various factors including a weak dollar and the potential for the RMB to appreciate slowly [1][6]. Market Overview - Emerging markets continued to lead the global bull market in Q4 2025, while the A+H market showed signs of volatility. The market experienced a "DeepSeek" moment in Q1, trade war impacts in Q2, an AI and resource boom in Q3, and a consolidation phase in Q4 [3][9]. - The structure of the market in Q4 showed that upstream resources performed well due to price drivers, while consumer and healthcare sectors experienced notable pullbacks. The technology sector presented various structural opportunities amidst the volatility [3][9]. Economic Context - The domestic economy is operating within a stable framework, with "anti-involution competition" becoming a key aspect of price governance. The real estate market remains a weak point, while the financial market benefits from the government's commitment to stabilize asset prices [3][9]. - Internationally, the U.S. faces a shift in national security strategy, leading to a partial vacuum and reconstruction of order. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience supported by AI, with the financial sector in a dual expansion phase of fiscal and monetary policies [3][9]. Industry Insights - AI development has entered a debt-driven phase, with advancements in language and world models. The hardware aspect is seeing a weakening of Moore's Law, necessitating system coupling and iterative synchronization to advance towards AGI and ASI [4][10]. - In the domestic consumption sector, households still face challenges in their balance sheets, and income expectations remain conservative, indicating a necessary transition between old and new growth drivers [4][10]. - In the cyclical sector, supply constraints and changes in demand structure continue to be key sources of yield, with the financial sector's low valuations and evolving demand structure offering promising potential for compounded returns [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues to present a trend opportunity, particularly due to the unprecedented geopolitical changes that may lead to the freezing of dollar reserves by Western nations, creating a consensus among countries wary of the U.S. to turn to gold as a safe asset [1][2]. Group 1 - The chief economist of Industrial Bank, Lu Zhengwei, emphasized that gold remains in a bull market channel as countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar amid global uncertainties [1][2]. - There is a growing consensus among nations that are concerned about the U.S. regarding the reliability of gold as a reserve asset [1][2]. - The statement "gold is the currency issued by God" reflects the historical significance and trust in gold as a stable asset during times of economic turmoil [1][2].

#如何安抚我们受伤的心灵？ ——风险是涨出来的 #周五的暴跌是一记重拳，直接将大家的热情从气温50度干到零下，犹如直接从海南飞到了黑河，该如何应对应该 是大家最关心的问题？ #周五的暴跌是一记重拳，直接将大家的热情从气温50度干到零下，犹如直接从海南飞到了黑河，该如何应对应该 是大家最关心的问题？ #风险都是涨出来的：我一直认为风险是涨出来，很多人问我为什么跌了，找了各种理由，包括新的美联储主席是 不是下一个沃尔克等等，这些我认为都是事后的解释，或者片面的理解。 我理解这轮的回调本 #风险都是涨出来的：我一直认为风险是涨出来，很多人问我为什么跌了，找了各种理由，包括新的美联储主席是 不是下一个沃尔克等等，这些我认为都是事后的解释，或者片面的理解。 #如何安抚我们受伤的心灵？ ——风险是涨出来的 我理解这轮的回调本质是前期急涨、快涨的反向，有急涨就会有急跌，只是提前没办法预判具体什么时候回落而 已。 #价格回落后，如何安抚受伤的心灵？ 价格一旦回落，各种担心就会有。 回落后如何安抚受伤的心灵？ （1）找出这轮的周期上行的 核心要素，去判断是不是有重大变化？ （2）价格中枢的上移是不是就只能价格一路上涨？ （3） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the accelerating changes in the global landscape, emphasizing China's shift from passive response to actively shaping international order through various global initiatives [1] Group 1: Global Governance Challenges - The current global governance system is ineffective in addressing major issues such as climate financing, food security, debt relief, health crises, and refugee challenges [1] - Developing countries face significant social, economic, and environmental vulnerabilities [1] Group 2: China's Role in Global Order - China is transitioning to a proactive role in international relations, proposing four major global initiatives to tackle global challenges [1] - The country is committed to institutional openness, aligning with high international standards to create multi-level institutional platforms [1] Group 3: Economic Contributions - China aims to counteract "de-globalization" through rule certainty and offers non-dependent development options for developing countries [1] - The contribution of China to global economic growth remains around 30%, positioning it as a source of certainty in a turbulent world [1]

Group 1 - The current global changes are unprecedented, with significant shifts in international order and geopolitical dynamics highlighted by the forced transfer of Venezuelan President Maduro to the U.S. for trial and the U.S. interest in Greenland [1] - The issue of Taiwan's unification has gained renewed attention, emphasizing that it is fundamentally a matter for the Chinese people, with a strong belief in national unity among over 1.4 billion Chinese [2][3] - The historical context of Taiwan's recovery from Japanese colonialism is crucial, as it reflects the enduring Chinese identity and the rejection of new forms of colonialism disguised as democracy and self-determination [3] Group 2 - The importance of maintaining a strong national defense and unity among the Chinese people is emphasized as essential for safeguarding sovereignty and ensuring peace [3][4] - The strategy for achieving national unification is patient and focused on long-term goals, relying on the collective strength and wisdom of the Chinese populace [4] - The commitment to advancing national rejuvenation and unification is framed as a sacred mission for all Chinese, aligning with the historical trend towards unity [4]

宁证期货投资咨询中心 Z0012851 F3008987 宽幅震荡，大周期不变 摘 要： 2025 年全球经济在承压状态下缓慢复苏，全球经济新的增长点和拉动力量 没有显著出现，百年未有之大变局加速演化，美元信用担忧加剧，以上各种因素 叠加使得黄金走出历史性的大涨行情，而人工智能对贵金属的需求预期，供需紧 平衡的结构同样使得白银走出了历史上最为剧烈的补涨行情。展望 2026 年，全 球经济或依然处于一个缓慢复苏的状态，虽然美国中期选举或使得国际地缘冲突 暂时有所减弱，但是百年未有之大变局持续演化的趋势不会改变，货币多元化和 美元信用的长期走弱的趋势不会改变，这些因素依然对贵金属长期上涨趋势存在 支撑，但经历了 2025 年的大涨行情之后，或存在阶段性的震荡回调、再蓄势的 过程，2026 年贵金属应重点把握结构性的机会。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 曹宝琴 投资咨询证号： 展望 2026 年，市场普遍预期，美国中期选举或使得特朗普政府的主要矛盾 指向美国内部两党的席位之争，目前市场预期为共和党或依然保持对参议院的控 制权，但是有可能失去众议院的控制权，如果这样的预期兑现，国际地缘或保持 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that the global economic power dynamics have shifted from the G8 countries to a more multipolar world, with emerging economies like China and India playing significant roles [1][6][10] - The G8's share of the global economy decreased from 47% in 2000 to 34.7% in 2018, indicating a decline in their influence over global governance [1][6] - China's economic growth has been a major driver of this shift, with its share of the global economy rising from 6.9% in 2000 to 16.8% in 2018, contributing significantly to the G8's decline [8][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of the G8 and its predecessor, the Eight-Nation Alliance, highlighting their dominance in global affairs over the past century [3][4][5] - It emphasizes that the transition from G8 to G20 reflects a fundamental change in global governance, where emerging economies are now included in decision-making processes [6][10] - The article notes that the U.S. has historically been the dominant economic power, but China's rise has altered this landscape, leading to a need for new forms of international cooperation [8][11] Group 3 - The article outlines the implications of China's economic growth for global trade, stating that China is now the world's largest trading nation and a key partner for over 140 countries [13] - It highlights the potential for China to achieve a per capita GDP equal to half of the U.S. by 2049, which could stabilize global relations and enhance China's position as a major economic power [14][21] - The discussion includes the challenges and opportunities presented by the Fourth Industrial Revolution, where China is positioned to leverage its large market and talent pool [19][20]

Group 1: Gold Market Characteristics - The current gold bull market is characterized by simultaneous increases in both risk assets (stocks) and safe-haven assets (gold) [2] - Gold has significantly outperformed U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar during this bull market [5] - The price of gold has increased approximately 200% since 2018, reflecting its strategic reserve property amid global uncertainties [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Cycles - Historical analysis reveals three distinct cycles of gold price increases: 23-fold from 1970-1980, 6-fold from 2001-2012, and approximately 2-fold from 2018 to present [7] - The first cycle (1970-1980) was driven by inflation concerns, with gold prices rising due to high inflation rates, peaking during the oil crises [6] - The second cycle (2001-2012) was influenced by financial attributes, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis, where gold became a key financial asset [6] Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, opportunity costs, and the collapse of the fiat currency system, reflecting its three properties: commodity, financial, and monetary [8] - The shift in global economic power dynamics has led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially as confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries wanes [9] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, marking a notable change in demand structure [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global competition and cooperation among major powers over the past 500 years, focusing on wealth creation and institutional innovation as key themes in the rise and fall of nations [2]. Group 1: Economic Interpretation of Major Powers' Rise and Fall - Qian Chengdan defines "world powers" as countries that significantly impact global development and changes in the world order since the formation of the capitalist world system [4]. - The nine world powers over the past 500 years are categorized into four types: mercantilist powers (Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), early industrialized powers (UK, France), capitalist powers (Germany, Japan), and 20th-century superpowers (Soviet Union, USA) [4]. - Each type of power is analyzed for its economic model innovations, with Portugal and Spain relying on early overseas exploration and colonial plunder, while the Netherlands emphasized commercial trade and financial innovation [4]. Group 2: Institutional Innovation as the Fundamental Driver - The rise of Western powers is attributed to the development model of "nation-state + mercantilism," with Portugal being the first world power to adopt this model [6]. - The UK's industrial revolution was facilitated by a favorable political and social environment post-Glorious Revolution, allowing individuals to pursue diverse interests [6]. - Germany and Japan's rise involved a different industrialization model, emphasizing effective resource allocation through state power, providing valuable lessons for developing countries [6]. Group 3: Historical Lessons on Overexpansion and Institutional Rigidity - The book analyzes the common causes of decline among major powers, such as overexpansion (e.g., Spanish Empire), institutional rigidity (e.g., late Soviet Union), and technological stagnation (e.g., Netherlands) [8]. - The rise and fall of major powers are closely linked to era changes, with the loss of leadership capacity leading to a decline in status [8]. - The current status of the USA can be summarized as "absolute advantage, relative decline," offering a historical perspective on future global economic growth [8]. Group 4: Insights for Chinese Modernization - The book provides insights for Chinese readers on modernization, emphasizing the need to build a modern state, develop a modern economy, and construct a modern society [10]. - It suggests that latecomer countries should not simply replicate Western paths but should explore innovative routes that align with their unique characteristics [10]. - In the context of the 21st century's "new world changes," four paths converge, forming a significant transformation not seen in a century [10].