智通财经1月9日讯（编辑 潇湘）2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个 真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还 将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日——标普 500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值 合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发 生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府 去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言 而喻——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期，要么会增强市场对美联储可能连 续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is expected to show moderate growth in December, which may instill some confidence in investors for the new year, but it is not enough to cause excessive market excitement [2] Employment Data Summary - The consensus forecast predicts an addition of 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4.5%. The range for job additions is between 25,000 and 155,000, highlighting uncertainty in hiring conditions [2] - If the forecast is accurate, the job addition will be a slight increase compared to the average monthly addition of 55,000 jobs from January to November 2025, and slightly higher than the preliminary figure of 64,000 jobs in November [2] - The unemployment rate is currently 0.5 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2025, indicating a divergence between job growth and unemployment rate trends [2][4] Market Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations and may lead to significant fluctuations in stock, bond, currency, and precious metal markets [2] - A weak non-farm employment report could reinforce market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely leading to a weaker dollar and a potential initial rebound in U.S. stocks, followed by renewed concerns about economic growth [2][3] - Conversely, a strong non-farm report would weaken the market's rate cut bets, support the dollar, and potentially suppress U.S. stock valuations [3] Labor Market Indicators - The recent JOLTS report indicated a significant decline in job vacancies, which is a leading indicator of future hiring intentions. This decline suggests a weakening demand for labor and supports the expectation of weak job additions in December [5] - The ongoing decrease in the labor turnover rate indicates that employees are less confident in external job opportunities, further signaling a cooling labor market [5] Data Revisions - Experienced traders recognize that revisions to previous months' employment data can significantly alter market perceptions of labor market strength. A substantial downward revision of October and November's job additions could paint a more severe picture of the employment landscape than the December figures alone suggest [6] - Historical trends show that conflicting signals between initial and revised non-farm data often lead to market volatility [6] Future Employment Outlook - Economists generally expect the U.S. labor market to stabilize in 2026, with a more optimistic outlook compared to the beginning of 2025. There are signs of improved hiring activity and a slowdown in layoffs [7] - The employment market is anticipated to remain within a moderate range, with fluctuations expected but overall resilience confirmed [7] - The focus for 2026 will also be on employee retention strategies, as employers prioritize retaining existing staff over aggressive hiring or layoffs [8]

这份数据被视为政府停摆后的首份"回归常态"的就业报告。然而，由于史上最长停摆的影响仍在消化， 未来数月的就业数据仍可能存在扭曲，加之就业统计长期面临的信息采集难题，投资者解读难度依旧不 小。 市场预期：就业温和增长，失业率或略降 路透预测显示，12月非农就业预计新增6万人，低于11月的6.4万人；失业率料从4.6%下降至4.5%。 其他劳动力市场指标显示就业动能仍在延续。ADP报告显示，上月私营部门新增就业4.1万人；服务业 就业指标七个月来首次回到扩张区间，显示招聘活动回暖。 劳工统计局JOLTS调查显示，11月职位空缺从10月的740万个降至710万，但辞职人数回升、裁员数量下 降，反映劳动力需求仍存韧性，也揭示市场释放与吸纳之间的不确定平衡。 对于新增就业规模的预估分歧依然明显，区间从2.5万到15.5万不等。《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家给 出的共识预期为增加7.3万。 T. Rowe Price首席美国经济学家布莱丽娜·乌鲁奇（Blerina Uruçi）认为，"就业增长仍将保持稳定"，并 预计新增6至7万个岗位，略高于共识预估。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯（José Torres）更为乐观，预 ...

Core Insights - US jobless claims increased slightly to about 208,000 in the first week of 2026, indicating that layoffs remain limited despite signs of a cooling labor market [1] Labor Market Analysis - The number of new claims for unemployment benefits reflects a stable job market, with only a minor increase in claims suggesting resilience in employment levels [1]

Group 1 - The report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicates a significant decrease in announced layoffs in December, dropping to the lowest level in 17 months, suggesting a stabilization in the U.S. labor market [3][8] - The total planned layoffs for December amounted to 35,553, a 50% decrease from November and an 8% decrease year-over-year, marking the lowest figure since July 2024 [5][6][8] - Despite the decrease in December, the total number of layoffs for the year exceeded 1.2 million, representing a 58% increase compared to the previous year, the highest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [5][6][8] Group 2 - The number of announced hiring plans reached 10,496 in December, reflecting a nearly 16% increase from November and a 31% increase year-over-year [8] - The fourth quarter of 2025 has been noted as the most severe quarter for layoffs since 2008, despite the drop in December figures [3][8] - The data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows a rising trend in layoffs that has not been reflected in government statistics [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, reversing the previous month's decline, but falling short of economists' expectations of 50,000 jobs [1] - The report highlights that the education and healthcare sectors, along with leisure and hospitality, were the main contributors to job growth, while professional services and manufacturing continued to see job losses [1] - Specifically, the education and healthcare sectors added 39,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality increased by 24,000, trade, transportation, and utilities added 11,000, and financial services increased by 6,000 [1] Group 2 - The report notes that almost all new jobs were created by small businesses with fewer than 500 employees, while large companies only added 2,000 jobs [1] - Average annual salary growth for retained employees remained at 4.4%, while job switchers saw a salary increase of 6.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The report was released two days before the U.S. Labor Department's non-farm payroll data, with economists expecting a non-farm job increase of 73,000 and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [2]

1月8日，昨日黄金主要走了一个偏向回落行情，亚盘开盘直接反弹刷新日内高点至4499美元一线，不过 后续开始回落，亚盘尾盘跌破4450后反弹至4460小亏并反手做空，美盘刷新日内低点至4422美元，空单 于4430附近手动止盈离场。最终金价是收盘于4455美元，日线收于一根阴线。 周四（1月8日）昨日金价上演了戏剧性的高位震荡行情，完美诠释了"大涨之后必有休整"的市场规律。 金价在亚洲交易时段一度上探至4500美元整数关口，但随后遭遇集中性的获利了结打压。然而，疲弱的 美国就业数据及时出现，为金价提供了"软着陆"的缓冲，使其尾盘收复部分失地。这轮回调标志着市场 从前期的单边强势上涨，正式转入高位震荡消化期。 昨日公布的美国12月ADP就业人数仅增加4.1万人，低于预期。这些数据指向劳动力市场正在冷却，强 力巩固了市场对美联储将在2026年开启降息周期的预期。今晚将迎来美国初请失业金人数等，这将进一 步为劳动力市场和通胀预期提供线索。市场将在这些数据中，反复验证和校准对美联储政策路径的预 期，从而引发金价的日内波动。 从技术上来看，隔夜黄金下撤4423一线后回弹，测压4470又有承压表现，日内的整体震荡区域符合昨 ...

Core Insights - The ADP National Employment Report for December 2025 indicates a moderate recovery in the U.S. job market, with private sector non-farm employment increasing by 41,000 jobs, reversing a decline of 29,000 jobs in November [1][3] - The report highlights that job growth is concentrated in the service sector, particularly in education, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality, while some sectors like professional services and information services experienced job losses [1][2] Employment Growth - Private sector job growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by small and medium-sized enterprises, with small businesses (1-49 employees) adding 9,000 jobs and medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) adding 34,000 jobs, while large enterprises (500+ employees) only added 2,000 jobs [2] - Regional disparities are evident, with the South and Northeast adding 54,000 and 40,000 jobs respectively, while the West saw a significant decline of 61,000 jobs, particularly in the Pacific region [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth remains moderate, with average annual salary increases for employees staying in their current positions at 4.4%, while those changing jobs saw an increase of 6.6%, indicating a cooling labor market [2][3] Economic Indicators - The ADP report serves as a key forward-looking indicator of the U.S. private sector job market, based on anonymous weekly payroll data from over 26 million employees across more than 500,000 businesses, providing insights into employment dynamics across industries, company sizes, and regions [3] - Following the ADP report, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 3.9 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting market reactions to the employment data [3][4] Market Expectations - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs for December 2025, is anticipated to confirm the trend of an orderly cooling labor market, which may reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle in the first half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming ADP employment change data for December is expected to show a significant recovery in the U.S. labor market, with a forecast of 47,000 jobs added compared to a previous decline of 32,000 jobs, which could reduce the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, positively impacting the U.S. dollar index [1][8]. Group 1: ADP Employment Data - The ADP employment change data is referred to as a "small non-farm" indicator and is seen as a precursor to the more authoritative non-farm payroll report due on Friday [1][8]. - Historical trends indicate that the ADP data has shown a downward trajectory over the past year, with projections for December 2024 to April 2025 suggesting a range of 60,000 to 186,000 jobs, which is considered normal [3][10]. - A significant decline in ADP data is expected starting May 2025, with concentrated negative values observed in June, August, September, and November, indicating a major crisis in the U.S. labor market [3][10]. Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - The current labor market challenges are attributed to factors such as aggressive immigration policies, the impact of artificial intelligence, and unclear economic policies, which have reduced companies' willingness to hire [3][10]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is historically known to often contradict the ADP data, suggesting that while ADP data is useful for reference, it should not be the sole basis for judgment [3][10]. Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index is currently in a consolidation phase, with a lower limit of 96.34 and an upper limit of 100.23, indicating a wide trading range that has persisted for about six months [6][13]. - Recent trading days have shown signs of a potential rebound in the dollar index, with increased volatility and a possibility of breaking through the upper limit of the trading range if the upward momentum continues [7][13].

责任编辑：王许宁 美国上周初请失业金人数意外降至一个月来最低水平，但由于招聘低迷，12月失业率可能仍居高不下。 近几周初请失业金人数波动较大，因为在假日季之前调整季节性波动数据面临挑战。劳动力市场预计仍 处于经济学家和政策制定者所说的"不雇不炒"模式。尽管近期美国经济仍保持弹性，第三季度GDP增速 达到两年来最快，但劳动力市场几乎陷入停滞。经济学家表示，劳动力需求和供应受到进口关税和打击 移民的影响。 美国上周初请失业金人数意外降至一个月来最低水平，但由于招聘低迷，12月失业率可能仍居高不下。 近几周初请失业金人数波动较大，因为在假日季之前调整季节性波动数据面临挑战。劳动力市场预计仍 处于经济学家和政策制定者所说的"不雇不炒"模式。尽管近期美国经济仍保持弹性，第三季度GDP增速 达到两年来最快，但劳动力市场几乎陷入停滞。经济学家表示，劳动力需求和供应受到进口关税和打击 移民的影响。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...