Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of slow hiring and slow layoffs, as evidenced by the latest non-farm payroll report [1] - Employers added 147,000 jobs, with a total of 74,000 jobs created in the private sector [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, and employment growth for April and May was revised upward by 16,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected negative ADP employment report, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [1][2][8]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. non-farm payroll for June will show an increase of 106,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in the previous month, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [3][5]. - The range of predictions from Wall Street institutions for the June non-farm payroll varies between 70,000 and 160,000 jobs [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Scenarios - If the non-farm payroll data is weak, the likelihood of a rate cut in July increases, while strong data would eliminate that possibility [2][10]. - Morgan Stanley outlines five potential scenarios based on the non-farm payroll results, with varying impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job growth figures [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - A non-farm payroll result below 85,000 could signal recession risks, while results above 145,000 may lead to a reassessment of economic growth trajectories [10][17].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in ADP employment numbers for June, which decreased by 33,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of an increase of 100,000 jobs. This marks the first negative reading since March 2023 and indicates underlying issues in the employment market despite its apparent strength [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The service sector is the hardest hit, with professional and business services losing 56,000 jobs, followed by the education and healthcare sector with a reduction of 52,000 jobs, and financial activities decreasing by 14,000 jobs. The Midwest and Western regions also saw job losses of 24,000 and 20,000 respectively, while the Southern region barely maintained slight growth [3][5]. - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 20 employees, experienced a net loss of 29,000 jobs, highlighting their vulnerability under high interest rates and policy uncertainty, whereas larger companies with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs [3][5]. - ADP's Chief Economist Neela Richardson pointed out that while mass layoffs have not occurred, companies are adopting a strategy of "freezing hiring" and "not filling vacancies," leading to a passive contraction in employment. The average monthly job growth over the past three months has been only 18,700, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic [5][7]. Group 3 - The tightening of immigration policies has led to a decline in foreign labor, resulting in a reduction of 2 million in labor supply, which is more impactful than tariff effects. A recent study warns that net immigration in the U.S. could reach zero or even negative this year, necessitating the creation of only 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate, but this could permanently damage economic growth potential [5][7]. - Following the ADP data release, traders increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July from 20% to 27.4%, with expectations for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as economists expect an addition of 110,000 jobs, but past data revisions have raised concerns about the reliability of these figures [7].

金十数据7月1日讯，美国5月份的职位空缺意外上升至去年11月以来的最高水平，裁员人数下降，表明 尽管经济存在不确定性，但劳动力市场保持稳定。美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，就业岗位从4 月份修正后的740万个增至777万个，这超出了经济学家的预期。 美国职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高 ...

Core Insights - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Mary Daly, stated that new data confirms the robustness of the U.S. labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve is still awaiting more information regarding inflation [1] - There is an optimistic outlook for interest rate cuts in the fall [1]

美联储戴利：最新数据显示美国劳动力市场依然坚挺。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "Big Beautiful Act" and its 899 clause, which targets global minimum corporate tax rates, digital service taxes, and profit shifting taxes, particularly affecting U.S. companies and their international operations [1][2][5]. Core Points and Arguments - The 899 clause aims to counteract unfair tax practices imposed by certain countries on U.S. companies, particularly focusing on "discriminatory countries" such as some European nations, Canada, and Australia [2][3]. - The actual impact of the 899 clause on secondary market investments may be limited, as major economies like China and Japan are not included in the targeted countries [1][2]. - Concerns about inflation due to the Trump administration's immigration policies are raised, suggesting that labor market tightness could lead to increased wages and service prices, although no definitive evidence supports a significant inflation rise [3][9]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell exhibits a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, emphasizing economic resilience, while Board Member Waller suggests considering a rate cut in July, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed [4][13]. - The U.S. is increasing tax rates on European companies, including higher existing rates on dividends, interest, and rents, while exempting certain investment income, which may have a minor impact on the secondary market [5][7]. - Differences between the House and Senate versions of the Big Beautiful Act's 899 clause include implementation dates and definitions of discriminatory countries, with the Senate version being more lenient [8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current labor market demand in the U.S. is slowing down, with a notable decrease in non-farm job vacancies, suggesting that the labor market is not experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance [11]. - The number of immigrants detained and deported this year is relatively low compared to the total number of new immigrants during the Biden administration, indicating that immigration supply has not significantly contracted [10]. - There are mixed views on whether immigration enforcement will lead to inflation; some argue it could lower inflation by reducing housing costs, as immigration is correlated with rising rents [12]. - The Fed's recent meeting revealed lowered growth forecasts and increased inflation predictions, maintaining expectations for two rate cuts, but with significant uncertainty regarding future tariffs and their inflationary effects [13][14]. - Powell's cautious approach may stem from his desire to avoid risks as he approaches the end of his term, while Waller's more aggressive stance may be aimed at gaining attention for a potential future leadership role within the Fed [15][16].

摩根大通全球固定收益负责人米歇尔：（谈美国劳动力市场）企业"陷入停滞"。 ...

由于学年将于本月结束，而一些州允许非教学人员在漫长的暑假期间领取福利，申请人数可能会继续上 升。尽管在特朗普的激进关税引发的经济不确定性下，雇主留住工人，没有出现大规模裁员，但劳动力 市场正在逐渐失去动力。白宫对移民的打击也减缓了就业增长。5月份非农就业岗位增加13.9万个，低 于去年同期的19.3万个。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 24.8万人，预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为 24.8万人;这是自去年10月以来的最高水平。这些数据可能是受到学年结束、学校放假的影响。在2024 年，初请失业金人数在6月初达到了较高水平。这进一步表明失业的美国人重新找到工作的所需时间更 长了。美国至5月31日当周续请失业金人数 195.6万人，预期191万人，前值由190.4万人修正为190.2万 人，为2021年底以来的最高水平。 初请失业金人数与招聘放缓的情况相吻合，这表明美国失业人员正在艰难地寻找工作。然而，该报告所 涵盖的时期包括了阵亡将士纪念日以及一些州的暑假开学前的假期，这使得数据的波动性更大。 彭博经济学家Eliza Winger表示："雇主对经济增长前景持谨慎态度，这导致招聘率 ...

Group 1 - The current silver futures are trading above 8862, with a slight decline of 0.49% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] - The silver futures opened at 8859 and reached a high of 8885 and a low of 8794, suggesting volatility within the trading range [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is facing challenges with weak hiring and accelerated data revisions, as highlighted by economist Samuel Thomas [3] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 125,000, but significant downward revisions of previous data overshadow this positive figure [3] - The initial report for March's job additions was revised down from 224,000 to only 120,000, indicating potential issues with the reliability of employment data [3] - Thomas anticipates that the May job additions may also be revised down to around 100,000 in the upcoming data release [3] - The frequent revisions may be linked to small businesses delaying data submissions, which are heavily impacted by high interest rates and tariff costs [3] - Government employment has also been declining, with a total reduction of 59,000 jobs this year, including a decrease of 22,000 in May alone [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to a peak of 4.8% by December [3]