智通财经APP获悉，周五，美国劳工部将发布4月非农就业报告，市场高度关注这份数据，试图从中判 断美国经济究竟是暂时受到关税政策影响，还是正走向更严重的长期下滑。 根据道琼斯的调查共识，经济学家预计4月非农就业岗位将增加13.3万个，远低于3月的22.8万个。但这 一预期数字与今年前3个月15.2万个的平均水平相差不大，足以使失业率维持在约4.2%左右。 不过，若数据大幅低于预期，可能会引发市场动荡，尤其是在近期经济数据频频传来利空、特朗普政府 对贸易伙伴强硬加征关税引发市场焦虑的背景下。 穆迪分析公司首席经济学家Mark Zandi指出："如果就业增幅在15万上下，市场应该还能接受。我们会 感觉还可以，虽然谈不上乐观，也不至于崩溃。" 然而，Zandi也提醒，市场可能要准备迎接失望。他特别提到，若就业增长低于10万，将是一个危险信 号。"如果只有10万甚至更低，我会开始警觉。其他经济数据的重要性也会随之提升，人们将调低对经 济的预期，这可能导致市场度过艰难的一天。" 连串坏消息打压信心 投资者本周已经经历了一系列令人沮丧的经济数据：第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）折合年率下滑 0.3%；ADP私人就业报告远 ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has significantly outperformed the market this year, showcasing Warren Buffett's continued confidence in the U.S. economy despite global economic challenges [1]. Group 1: Views on the U.S. Economy - Buffett has historically expressed unwavering confidence in the U.S. economy, even during crises like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4]. - The IMF has downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts to 1.8%, citing increased policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and weakening demand as primary factors [3]. - Recent data indicates a 0.3% annualized contraction in U.S. GDP for Q1, marking the first decline since early 2022, raising concerns about potential recession [4]. Group 2: Cash and Buybacks - Berkshire's growing cash reserves are a focal point for investors, with questions about future cash deployment amid anticipated declining interest rates [5]. - Year-to-date, Berkshire's stock has risen 16%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 23 percentage points and the Nasdaq by about 27 percentage points [5]. - Berkshire holds $30.08 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, representing 4.89% of the total short-term U.S. debt, while buyback activity has slowed, with only $2.9 billion in stock repurchased in 2024, the lowest since 2018 [5]. Group 3: Future Investment Plans - Despite reducing equity holdings since 2022, Buffett remains committed to investing primarily in stocks rather than cash, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy [6]. - Buffett has indicated a preference for acquiring stakes in good companies rather than holding cash equivalents, reinforcing his value-oriented investment philosophy [6]. - Recent investments include a significant stake in five major Japanese companies, with a total investment of $13.8 billion now valued at $23.5 billion [7]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Evaluation - Buffett has acknowledged the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, expressing both excitement and concern about its implications [9]. - He highlighted the risks of AI-related scams and the potential for significant societal impact, indicating a cautious approach to discussing AI's future [9]. - The discussion on AI is expected to be further elaborated by Berkshire's vice chairman, Greg Abel, during the upcoming shareholder meeting [9]. Group 5: Succession and Company Future - As Buffett approaches 95, succession planning has become a critical topic, with Greg Abel positioned as a potential successor [10]. - Buffett reassured shareholders that the future management team is well-prepared to uphold the company's principles and respond to significant investment opportunities [10][11]. - The company has addressed long-term management strategies, ensuring continuity in its investment philosophy and operational integrity [10].

美国经济前景堪忧，美元指数弱势运行，黄金转折点在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's patience in the face of economic uncertainty in the U.S. may be the correct approach, as recent comments from Chairman Powell indicate a cautious stance due to inflation and economic challenges posed by tariffs [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - High inflation and declining economic growth potential are significant concerns, with the Fed facing a dilemma due to Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - The expectation is that the Fed may not lower interest rates significantly this year, with a potential trigger for action being a rise in unemployment above 4.5% [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Potential - The U.S. economy is experiencing a structural decline in growth potential, exacerbated by rising import prices and a decrease in labor supply due to higher deportation rates [4] - Despite a projected slowdown in GDP growth, the unemployment rate remains relatively stable at 4.2%, indicating that economic weakness may not lead to sufficient labor market softness to warrant monetary policy support [4] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The market is beginning to accept that inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target for a fifth consecutive year, posing a threat to the Fed's credibility [5] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, although this is not corroborated by other inflation indicators [5] Group 4: Political Pressures - Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence may influence its decision-making, as the Fed aims to maintain its credibility and avoid perceptions of political pressure [6]