Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Fed may cut interest rates more than twice with a magnitude greater than 50bp, and the probability of stagflation in the US is increasing. Short - term, the market rebounds, and long - term, strategic allocation of gold is recommended [1]. - For silver, the future US interest rate cut expectations and treasury bond issuance support commodities. Its fundamentals change little, with strong industrial demand and limited supply increase, so it has a long - term upward trend [1]. - For copper, due to weak US economic data and increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a large increase in LME copper inventory, short - term, wait for a full correction to try long, and long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1]. - For zinc, with loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, and over - expected zinc ingot production in July, along with a demand off - season, short - term, hold previous short positions and take partial profits, and long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices [1]. - For lead, with new production capacity coming online, enterprises resuming production, and relatively high social inventory, the lead price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For tin, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar and inventory accumulation during the consumption off - season, the tin price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For aluminum, with high - level overseas imported bauxite, inventory accumulation, and weak downstream processing industry, the aluminum price continues to be under pressure [1]. - For nickel, with weak overseas nickel ore prices, slow - down of stainless steel production cuts, and inventory accumulation, the nickel price faces pressure when rebounding [1]. - For industrial silicon, supply is increasing, demand is stable overall, and it is short - term strengthened by sentiment [1]. - For polysilicon, the "sales price not lower than cost" supports the market, but the expected resumption of production in August may increase the surplus, facing pressure near the previous high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, total inventory has decreased after 8 weeks of accumulation, and there is an upward driving force for the price under the expectation of inventory reduction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review US data is weak, interest rate cut expectations rise, trade wars are repeated, and the Fed's objectivity is questioned, leading to a rise in the gold price [2]. Basic Logic Trump criticizes Powell for late interest rate cuts, there are uncertainties in the EU - US trade agreement, US data is below expectations, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is high, with a possible 50 - basis - point cut if data worsens. Short - term tariff risks subside, but long - term, the debt issuance process accelerates, central banks buy gold, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing remains unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains [3]. Strategy Recommendation The gold price rebounds, with clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver fluctuates and rebounds in the short - term, with a trading range of 9000 - 9300. Both fundamental logic and market trends support long - term long positions [4]. Copper Market Review The Shanghai copper price tests the 78,000 - yuan mark again [7]. Industry Logic Recently, there have been continuous disturbances in copper concentrate supply, and the processing fee TC is - 42.5 dollars/ton. There is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In July, the domestic copper smelting start - up rate was 88.19%, and the electrolytic copper output increased significantly. Short - term, domestic spot circulation is tight, but consumption is in the off - season and downstream demand is weak. After the US copper product tariff is implemented, domestic copper export demand will be under pressure, and the back - flow of COMEX copper inventory to LME's US warehouses has led to a large increase in LME copper inventory [7]. Strategy Recommendation Due to weak US economic data, increased Fed interest rate cut expectations, and a 14,000 - ton increase in LME copper inventory, the London copper price weakens and drives the Shanghai copper price down. Short - term, wait for copper to fully correct and try long near 77,500. Long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and copper is a strategic resource, so it is long - term bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [77,000, 79,000], and the London copper price in the range of [9550, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates at a low level [10]. Industry Logic In 2025, zinc ore supply is loose. In July, the domestic refined zinc output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to continue to increase in August. Zinc ore processing fees are rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is high. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, floods, and the traditional consumption off - season, enterprise start - up rates are weak [10]. Strategy Recommendation With loose zinc ore supply, increased processing fees, over - expected refined zinc production in July, and a demand off - season, hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so look for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [21,800, 22,600], and the London zinc price in the range of [2650, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review The aluminum price is under pressure, and the alumina price rebounds and then falls [13]. Industry Logic For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment eases. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased, and inventory increased. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate decreased, and the demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, the import volume is high, the port inventory increases, the domestic production capacity is approaching 9000 tons, and the supply - demand is in a loose pattern. The electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory accumulates again [14]. Strategy Recommendation Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of [20,000 - 20,700] [15]. Nickel Market Review The nickel price has weak rebounds, and the stainless steel price faces pressure when rebounding [17]. Industry Logic Overseas, the macro - environment eases. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines continues to decline, NPI smelters face cost inversion and losses, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation improves limitedly, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production cut intensity weakens, and inventory pressure reappears in the off - season. Although the overall inventory has decreased, the terminal consumption is in the off - season, and there is still a supply - demand surplus [18]. Strategy Recommendation Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream inventory changes, and the main nickel contract is expected to operate in the range of [118,000 - 121,000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review The main contract LC2511 increases in position and decreases in price, completing the contract change, with a decline of more than 2% [21]. Industry Logic The fundamentals improve marginally. The total inventory stops accumulating after 8 weeks, and the inventory starts to transfer from upstream to intermediate links due to the resonance rise of futures and spot prices. Domestic production decreases after 9 weeks of increase. In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles declines year - on - year, and only the energy - storage market has some growth. The compliance risk of lithium mine mining licenses in Jiangxi becomes the focus of the lithium carbonate game, and the renewal of leading enterprises' mining licenses will have a great impact on the market. In August, the production plan of cathode material factories increases, and the supply - demand situation may improve [22]. Strategy Recommendation There is still speculation about supply, so try long on dips in the range of [66,500 - 70,500] [23].

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]

Group 1 - The gold market is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations as investors await the outcome of the tariff agreement expiration and significant economic data releases, leading to a cautious sentiment and continuation of the previous day's pullback pressure [1] - The US dollar index maintains its rebound momentum, which is expected to limit bullish trends in gold prices. The weekly chart indicates that the dollar index has rebounded above the middle track, with clear bullish signals in the indicators, suggesting a potential strengthening in August that could exert pressure on gold prices [3] - Despite the strengthening of the dollar index, the long-term trend of gold prices remains uncertain, with expectations of either continued fluctuations or a potential upward trend. Key economic data to watch includes the US unemployment rate and non-farm employment figures, with market expectations indicating a rise in unemployment and a decrease in non-farm employment, which could be favorable for gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The daily chart shows that gold prices closed higher yesterday, remaining above the 100-day moving average and forming a bottoming pattern, indicating potential for further strength towards the $3,400 level. However, there is still downward pressure, and a return above the 60-day moving average is necessary to increase bullish momentum [4] - If gold prices fall below the 100-day moving average support, they may decline to the $3,100 or $3,000 levels. Therefore, the market is expected to experience a period of consolidation before making a decisive move either upwards or downwards [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 225 yuan/ton, with a slight reduction of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's forecast, translating to an increase of 0.17-0.20 yuan per liter, which exceeds the upper limit for price hikes [1] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with U.S. crude oil dropping below $70 per barrel, closing at $69.36 per barrel after a decline of 1.34% [4] - Brent crude oil also fell by 1.36%, closing at $71.74 per barrel, with current prices at $69.27 per barrel, reflecting a further decrease of 0.13% [4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a surprising rise in core PCE inflation to 2.8%, has impacted market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced oil demand [4] Regional Fuel Prices - The following are the expected fuel prices in various regions: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 7.26 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.73 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.23 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 7.22 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.68 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.48 yuan, and diesel at 6.88 yuan [4] - Guangdong: 92 gasoline at 7.28 yuan, 95 gasoline at 7.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 9.89 yuan, and diesel at 6.91 yuan [5] - Hainan: 92 gasoline at 8.37 yuan, 95 gasoline at 8.89 yuan, 98 gasoline at 10.06 yuan, and diesel at 6.99 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, positive economic data, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, marking the first monthly increase since President Trump took office [1][4]. Economic Performance - In July, the dollar index rose by 3.4%, recovering from a significant decline of 10.79% in the first half of the year, which was the worst performance since 1973 [3][4]. - The dollar index reached a low of 96.37 in early July, the lowest since February 2022, before climbing to a high of 100.09 by the end of the month [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5]. - The Fed's hawkish position and the resilience of the US economy have contributed to the dollar's strength, with the year-to-date decline narrowing to 7% [4]. Trade Policies - President Trump's recent executive order established "reciprocal" tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from various countries, which has reduced uncertainty surrounding trade policies [5]. - The narrowing of the US trade deficit by 10.8% to $86 billion in June, along with a 4.2% decrease in imports, reflects a shift in trade dynamics [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the recent dollar rebound, some institutions maintain a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar index, citing concerns over extreme valuations and potential market shocks [9]. - Analysts suggest that the current dollar strength may be a temporary adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall downtrend, with expectations of renewed weakness if the Fed signals future rate cuts [9]. Future Outlook - Market participants are generally expecting a moderate increase in the dollar over the coming months, contrasting with previous bearish sentiments [6][8]. - The resilience of US economic data and the lack of readiness from the Fed to cut rates are seen as supporting factors for a stronger dollar [8].

Macro Research - The manufacturing PMI index fell unexpectedly to 49.3% in July, indicating a slowdown in production activities and a contraction in demand index, highlighting supply-demand imbalances [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness despite a rebound in consumer spending, with a consumer confidence index remaining low and private investment declining at an annualized rate of -15.6% [2] Bond Market - As of the end of Q2 2025, active bond funds saw an increase in performance, with leverage and duration rising compared to the previous quarter, indicating a comprehensive increase in various types of bonds [3] - The divergence between bond and bill market interest rates is attributed to both funding and credit attributes, with bill rates declining in response to increased bank credit [4] Industry Research - The European offshore wind sector is experiencing a positive trend due to improved policies, reduced project costs, and strategic positioning, with new installations expected to reach 2.6GW in 2024 and 11.8GW by 2030 [5] - The phosphate chemical industry is facing low operating rates for ammonium phosphate, with leading companies benefiting from upstream resource acquisitions, while those lacking such integration may face profitability pressures [8] Company Research - Jilin Chemical Fiber is expected to see a decline in profitability in its carbon fiber segment, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, while maintaining a positive outlook for its transition to carbon fiber products [10] - Su Shi Testing reported a revenue increase of 8.09% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a strong performance in Q2, and is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new growth from emerging industries [11] - Baidu Group is facing pressure on its advertising business due to competitive dynamics and AI transformation impacts, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [12] - Qualcomm's FY25Q3 results met expectations, with continued growth in automotive and IoT business segments, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [13]

金十数据7月31日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中表示，美元有望再度上涨，因 为即将公布的数据可能不利于美国近期降息。他表示，北京时间20:30公布的6月份核心PCE物价指数 （美联储常用的通胀指标）可能超出预期。其他值得关注的数据初请失业金人数，此前该数据意外连续 六周下降。这是自2022年8月至9月以来持续时间最长的一次下降，可能表明劳动力市场表现强劲。此 外，周五公布的非农就业数据也可能"足够好"，足以支持美联储继续暂停降息。 荷兰国际银行：即将公布的美国数据可能提振美元 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices in the context of improving U.S. economic data and the potential implications of the PCE data [1] Economic Context - U.S. economic data continues to show positive trends, which may influence market expectations and gold prices [1] - The focus is on whether the upcoming PCE data will disrupt this positive momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The voting result for the decision was 9 in favor and 2 against, with one member absent, marking the first time since late 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision [1] - The dissenting votes came from Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who argued for a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by inflation pressures and economic uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe and will closely monitor U.S. inflation data as a key factor for future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the July meeting, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped significantly from 63.3% to 43.2% [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September [5]

周四（7月31日）亚市盘中，黄金期货延续跌势，最新沪金主力报769.76元/克，跌幅0.43%，美联储召 开7月议息会议，美联储主席鲍威尔货币政策表态偏鹰派，同时昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，对 于金价形成较强利空因素。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 鲍威尔在议息会议中表态强硬，几乎拒绝透露任何关于九月议息会议货币政策路径的信息，他认为后续 的货币政策路径取决于经济数据，关键在于"把握时机"。 鲍威尔认为劳动力市场状况良好，并表示核心通胀有30%-40%来自于关税。鲍威尔表明目前美国经济需 要适度的限制。 经济数据方面，美国7月ADP就业人数为10.4万人，高于预期的7.5万人以及前值的-2.3万人。受到一季 度抢进口因素消退的影响，美国二季度实际GDP季度环比年化值为3%，大幅高于预期的2.4%与前值 的-0.5%。 【技术分析】 黄金价格短期将面临较强回调压力，沪金主力合约参考运行区间760-794元/克，今日沪金主力上方阻力 关注780-790，下方支撑关注750-760。 本次议息会议中，监管副主席鲍曼以及理事沃勒投下反对票，认为应当进行降息操作，后续两人将会就 反对意见作出解释。 ...