Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to decline, with London gold slightly down by 0.14% to $3995.2 per ounce, reaching a low of $3966.395 during the session [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $3995.2 per ounce, down by $5.75 or 0.14% from the previous close of $4000.95 [2]. - COMEX gold futures also show a slight decline of 0.29%, trading at $4002.5 per ounce, with a session low of $3975 [4]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices is a normal correction following a significant rise, with the current retracement still within a reasonable range [4]. - Factors such as the cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a strengthening dollar are exerting downward pressure on gold prices, with key technical support levels being breached [4]. - Despite the current decline, fundamental factors supporting a bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, including ongoing U.S. debt issues, government shutdown concerns, and continued geopolitical tensions [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a volatile but generally upward trend for gold prices, with short-term movements heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy and U.S. economic data [4]. - Resistance levels are identified between $4050 and $4100 per ounce, while support is seen around $3800 per ounce [4]. - Investment strategies suggest cautious positioning, with recommendations for light long positions in the short term and potential short positions if key technical levels are breached [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals continued their upward trend, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.84% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.93% [1]. - The short - term core logic includes increased short - term hedging demand due to the escalation of trade wars and the US government shutdown, and the increasing risk of stagflation in the US economy with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - The escalation of Trump's trade war and the US government shutdown have increased market uncertainty, enhancing the hedging attribute of precious metals [1]. - Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, and Fed Governor Waller warned of a possible negative turn in US employment growth. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in US economic activity recently but signs of cooling consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in October with a probability of around 90% and about 2 more cuts this year [1]. - The 1 - month implied lease rate of London silver has soared, indicating a tight silver spot market. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, the release times of retail sales, PPI and other data are postponed [1]. - Gold price trends are the anchor for silver price trends. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible silver inventory has slightly decreased [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold closed at $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week [2]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 999.80 yuan per gram, up 3.45% from the previous day and 10.90% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 995.90 yuan per gram, up 2.96% from the previous day and 10.93% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis, Spreads, and Ratios**: The difference between the main Shanghai gold contract and London gold was 27.72 yuan per gram, up 97% from the previous day and - 183% from the previous week; the main Shanghai gold contract basis was - 3.90 yuan per gram; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 79.30, down 0.25% from the previous day and 2.43% from the previous week; the gold - to - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.45, up 4.25% from the previous day and 5.98% from the previous week; the gold - to - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 72.11, up 3.25% from the previous day and 10.17% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions**: Comex gold positions were 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai gold contract positions were 222,192 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.32% from the previous day and 6.85% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 254,996 lots (kilograms per lot), up 2.20% from the previous day and 11.18% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory was 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 158,616 lots, down 1,867 lots from the previous week [2]. - **Gold ETF**: SPDR gold ETF holdings were 952.53 tons, down 0.33% from the previous week [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai gold warehouse receipts was 18 tons, up 0.38% from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **International Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72% from the previous day and 12.12% from the previous week; London silver closed at $53.02 per ounce, up 0.83% from the previous day and 6.67% from the previous week [5]. - **Domestic Prices**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 12,249 yuan per kilogram, up 1.93% from the previous day and 10.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 12,228 yuan per kilogram, up 2.06% from the previous day and 10.57% from the previous week [5]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The difference between the main Shanghai silver contract and London silver was 98.89 yuan per gram, down 395.86% from the previous day and 131.49% from the previous week; the main Shanghai silver contract basis was - 21 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Positions**: Comex silver positions were 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot); the main Shanghai silver contract positions were 7,067,430 lots (kilograms per lot), up 0.60% from the previous day and 2.40% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,623,146 lots (kilograms per lot), down 1.80% from the previous day and up 14.78% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory was 24,581 tons, down 0.26% from the previous week; Comex silver inventory was 15,928 tons, down 1.97% from the previous week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory was 982 tons, down 17.24% from the previous week; silver (SGE) inventory was 1,108 tons; the total visible inventory was 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and 1.32% from the previous week [5]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: Asset management institutions' weekly positions were 40,065 lots, up 1,937 lots from the previous week [5]. - **Silver ETF**: iShare silver ETF holdings were 15,422.61 tons, down 0.19% from the previous week [5]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered Shanghai silver warehouse receipts was 1,169,061 kilograms, down 1.95% from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.25%, the discount rate was 4.25%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.15%, all down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value; the Fed's total assets were $6,641.668 billion, up $4.268 billion from the previous week [7]. - **US Economic Indicators**: M2 year - on - year growth was 4.77%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.29%, down 1.29% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index was 98.34, down 0.35% from the previous day and 0.50% from the previous week; various interest rate spreads and inflation - related indicators showed different changes [7][8]. - **US Economic Growth and Labor Market**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth was 2.00%, down 0.30 percentage points; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was 3.80%, up 4.40 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls monthly change was 2.20 million, down 0.57 million; labor participation rate was 62.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; average hourly wage growth was 3.70%, down 0.20 percentage points; other labor - market - related data also had corresponding changes [7]. - **US Real Estate and Consumption**: The NAHB housing market index was 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous week; existing home sales were 4 million units, down 0.25% from the previous week; new home sales were 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous week; retail sales year - on - year growth was 3.76%, down 0.26 percentage points; personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth was 5.55%, up 0.37 percentage points; other related data also showed different trends [7][8]. - **US Industrial and Trade**: Industrial production index year - on - year growth was 0.87%, down 0.39 percentage points; durable goods new orders were $76.706 billion, up $4.70 billion; exports year - on - year growth was - 27.03%, up 6.09 percentage points; imports year - on - year growth was - 16.11%, down 0.07 percentage points; the trade balance was - $78.3 billion [7][8]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data**: China's gold reserves were 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous week; the US gold reserves were 8,133.46 tons; global gold reserves were 36,268.07 tons; the US dollar's share in IMF foreign exchange reserves was 57.80%, up 0.88%; the geopolitical risk index was 259.24, up 57.54% from the previous week; the VIX index was 28.34, up 30.84% from the previous week; the CRB commodity index was 293.61, down 1.91% from the previous week; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1277, down 0.05% from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The report provides the Fed's latest interest - rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at various future meeting dates from 2025/10/29 to 2027/9/15 [10].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 75,099 kilograms, with an increase of 2,916 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - On October 15, gold futures opened at 937.50 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 960.42 CNY per gram and a low of 934.50 CNY per gram, with a current price of 960.34 CNY per gram, reflecting a rise of 2.09% [1] - The trading volume for the day is 420,246 contracts, with an open interest of 230,686 contracts, and a daily increase in open interest of 2,227 contracts [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of several key economic data releases, affecting global economic insights and decision-making [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy complicates other countries' monetary policy formulation, trade performance assessment, and inflation trend predictions [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which are crucial for economic assessment [1] - The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, responsible for these reports, is significantly impacted by the shutdown, leading to potential longer delays in data collection and processing for October [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is currently relying on private sector data to evaluate the economy, but this cannot fully substitute for government statistics, especially for October data [1] Group 2 - High inflation typically necessitates the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, while a slowing job market would push for rate cuts [2] - Data from the Labor Department revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, a significant drop from the revised 79,000 in July and below market expectations [2] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest increase since January and remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold and silver prices are experiencing significant volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold prices recently reaching record highs [1][3][5] - On October 9, gold prices fluctuated dramatically, with COMEX December gold futures reaching nearly $4078 before dropping to below $3958, reflecting market reactions to U.S. government budget negotiations and economic data delays [3][4] - The demand for gold as a defensive asset has surged due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with predictions suggesting gold prices could rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [5][6] Group 2 - Silver prices have followed a similar trajectory to gold, with COMEX December silver futures peaking at nearly $50 before experiencing a significant drop, highlighting its sensitivity to dollar movements [6][8] - The industrial demand for silver is increasing, particularly in sectors like electronics and renewable energy, which is expected to support its price [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while silver has potential for upward movement, its smaller market size compared to gold makes it more susceptible to volatility, making gold a more stable investment option [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend during the National Day holiday, with four consecutive days of gains, despite a slight decline after reaching around 4059 [1] Group 1: Fundamentals - The Federal Reserve has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated by the end of October and a 78% probability of another cut in December, which weakens the dollar's attractiveness [2] - The U.S. government shutdown has increased uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset due to the lack of official economic data [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have previously supported gold prices, while central banks and ETFs have significantly increased their gold holdings, with global ETF inflows reaching $64 billion in 2025 and a record $17.3 billion in September alone [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 88, indicating an overbought condition, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by multiple favorable factors including continued Fed easing and global economic uncertainty [4] - The daily moving averages indicate a strong bullish structure, with key support levels at approximately 3970 for the 5-day moving average and 3900 for the 10-day moving average [6] - The current price action suggests a potential adjustment phase, with a focus on the resistance level around 4059, while remaining cautious of further upward movement after any short-term corrections [9]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Update - Bitcoin has surpassed $125,110, reaching a historical high with a 2.25% increase [1][2] - Ethereum has increased by 1.4%, while Dogecoin and SOL have risen over 2%, and HYPE has surged nearly 4% [3][2] - In the last 24 hours, approximately 120,000 traders faced liquidation, totaling $347 million [3][4] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in seven years [5] - The shutdown is affecting the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and CPI data [5][6] - Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could add uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [6][7] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the need for aggressive rate cuts, with some advocating for a more accommodative monetary environment [7][8] - The Fed recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% [7] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of further rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 96.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [9]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin has surpassed $125,000, reaching a historical high with a 2.25% increase [1][2] - Ethereum has increased by 1.4%, while Dogecoin and SOL have risen over 2% [2] - The total market capitalization for Bitcoin is approximately $94.19 billion, reflecting a 4.6% increase [2] Group 2: Liquidation Events - In the last 24 hours, nearly 120,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $347 million [3][4] - The total liquidation amount over 24 hours includes $120 million from long positions and $220 million from short positions [4] Group 3: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown due to a lack of funding, marking the first shutdown in seven years [5] - The shutdown is affecting the release of key economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report [5][8] - Analysts warn that a prolonged shutdown could lead to significant uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [5][7] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the need for aggressive rate cuts, with some advocating for a more accommodative monetary policy [7][9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is at 96.2%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 3.8% [9]

Group 1 - The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has significantly increased following the Senate's rejection of the Democratic funding bill, with a Republican proposal for a seven-week funding extension set for a vote [1][2] - If Congress fails to pass a temporary funding bill by the deadline, parts of the federal government will shut down, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees who may be forced to take unpaid leave [1][2] - The Trump administration has outlined detailed plans for dealing with the shutdown, including the suspension of economic data releases by the Labor Department during the shutdown period [1][4] Group 2 - Analysts warn that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to the potential government shutdown is driving investors towards precious metals, resulting in record-high gold prices [3] - The dollar index has been declining, with a reported value of 97.7704, indicating a potential four-day losing streak [4] - At least eight U.S. cabinet departments have prepared detailed shutdown plans, affecting over 400,000 non-essential employees [4][6] Group 3 - The Department of Health and Human Services has stated that new patients will not be accepted for clinical research during the shutdown, and public health information will be limited [6] - The Labor Department will suspend the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is scheduled for October 3 [6] - The Social Security Administration will place approximately 6,000 of its 51,000 employees on unpaid leave during the shutdown [7] Group 4 - The Department of Veterans Affairs will continue benefits and medical care during the shutdown, but maintenance of cemeteries will cease [8] - The IRS will continue operations during the shutdown due to funding secured through the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides funding until 2031 [8] - Deutsche Bank estimates that a full government shutdown could reduce quarterly annualized GDP growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points per week if 800,000 federal employees are furloughed [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Holiday - eve saw a divergence in the Shanghai precious metals market, with the Shanghai gold futures main - contract price hitting a new record high and the upward momentum of silver slowing [2]. - Geopolitical factors: If the peace agreement between the US and Israel makes substantial progress, the safe - haven premium of precious metals may decline, and a short - term correction is possible. The potential US government shutdown due to the lack of short - term funding has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Fed officials emphasized the risk of inflation rebound, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts and a data - dependent path. The recent strong US economic data has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may hinder the upward movement of gold prices [2]. - The US 8 - month core PCE data met market expectations. Although the interest rate cut expectation declined marginally due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the PCE data's mildness secured a 25bps interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting [2]. - The gold and silver ETFs in the external market had significant net inflows, and market bullish sentiment remained high. The market focus is on US economic data and Fed policies. Weak non - farm payrolls this week would increase the probability of further interest rate cuts and boost precious metals, while high inflation and economic resilience could lead to a rebound in the US dollar and bond yields and put downward pressure on precious metals [2]. - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit, debt issues, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. Silver generally follows gold, and the structural demand in the photovoltaic and new - energy sectors may bring additional elasticity when the global manufacturing industry stabilizes. It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and beware of short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was 874.4 yuan/gram, up 7.88 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was 10918 yuan/kg, down 21 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 256,876 lots, down 6,344 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 476,244 lots, down 32,723 lots. The net positions of the top 20 traders in the Shanghai gold main contract were 166,413 lots, down 1,306 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 105,881 lots, up 6,986 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 70,728 kg, up 2,100 kg; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,192,282 kg, up 2,634 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 872.95 yuan/gram, up 15.92 yuan; the silver spot price was 10,913 yuan/kg, up 143 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 1.45 yuan/gram, up 8.04 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver futures main contract was - 5 yuan/kg, up 164 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1,011.73 tons, up 6.01 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,521.35 tons, up 159.51 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver were 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 13.38%, down 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.45%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 21.12%, up 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.11%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump and Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting, and a peace plan was proposed. If implemented, the war would end immediately, and Israeli troops would withdraw to the agreed - upon border [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on overseas - made movies and large tariffs on countries where furniture is not made in the US [2]. - The value of the US Treasury's 261.5 million ounces of gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion. A market - value revaluation would release about $990 billion in funds for the US Treasury [2]. - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Hamack opposed rate cuts due to inflation concerns, Musalem was open to future rate cuts but cautious, and Williams said monetary policy remained tight [2].