Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is showing an upward trend, influenced by strong US economic data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [1][3][4] Group 1: USD Performance - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly increased, hovering around 98.70, following a strong ISM services PMI report that rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, surpassing economists' expectations of 52.3 [3] - The robust performance of the services PMI, which is a significant component of the US economy, indicates stability supported by the high-tech sector [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two 25 basis point interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve within the year, influenced by the strong PMI data [3] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss franc (CHF) has shown resilience against the US dollar, with expectations of a slight increase in the Swiss inflation rate from 0% in November to 0.1% in December, which may lead to a relatively stable policy direction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [3][4] - The CHF's stability is attributed to cautious trading behavior as the market awaits key economic data releases, including the US non-farm payrolls and Swiss CPI [4] - If the Swiss CPI data meets expectations, it is anticipated that the SNB will maintain a moderate policy stance for an extended period, which could influence short-term trading sentiment for the CHF [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices and the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market and economic indicators, highlighting the impact of geopolitical factors and central bank actions on gold demand and pricing [2][6][7]. Economic Indicators - On January 7, COMEX gold closed at $4467.1 per ounce, down 0.65%, while SHFE gold closed at 1002.20 yuan per gram, down 0.31% [2][6]. - The U.S. ADP employment report for December showed an increase of 41,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 47,000, indicating a slowdown in labor market momentum [2][6]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 54.4, exceeding expectations of 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6, suggesting strong economic demand [2][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government has begun global sales of Venezuelan oil, with the Energy Secretary stating that control over these sales will be indefinite [7]. - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) as of the end of December, an increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [7]. Market Sentiment - The divergence in market signals has led to a cooling in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, attributed to profit-taking by bullish investors after recent overheating in certain commodities [7]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to provide further guidance for market direction [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Monex Europe analysts indicates that the British pound's movement will be primarily influenced by risk sentiment and the performance of the US dollar, given the lack of domestic economic data from the UK on Wednesday [1]. Group 1: Economic Data Influence - The market focus has shifted towards US economic data, which is expected to be a significant driver for currency movements [1]. - Key US data points include the ADP private sector employment figures, followed by job openings and labor turnover survey, and the ISM services report [1]. Group 2: Currency Forecast - Analysts believe that if US data exceeds expectations, the GBP/USD exchange rate may fall below the 1.34 threshold [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the US dollar before the release of employment data may provide clues regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The ADP employment change for December and the JOLTs job openings for November are set to be released at 21:15 and 23:00 Beijing time, respectively [1] - The ISM services data will also be published alongside the employment figures [1] Group 2: Market Focus - The key focus for the market this week remains on the US non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday [1] - Signs of a weakening labor market could lead to an earlier expectation for the next interest rate cut [1] Group 3: Rate Cut Expectations - LSEG data indicates that the market currently assigns a roughly 50% probability for a rate cut in March, with full pricing for a cut not expected until June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing volatility due to short-term concerns about commodity index rebalancing, which may lead to significant fund outflows from gold and silver futures [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold briefly fell below the 4450 mark, while silver dropped over 3% but remains up 10% year-to-date; platinum and palladium also saw sharp declines of over 7% and 5% respectively [1]. - Gold achieved its best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, with prices reaching historical highs [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Market participants are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data, including the December employment report, following weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity indicators [3]. - The Federal Reserve's potential for further interest rate cuts is being reinforced by comments from Fed officials, suggesting a need for significant rate reductions by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Wall Street remains optimistic about precious metals, with Citibank forecasting that gold prices may remain high due to economic pressures and geopolitical factors, projecting a first-quarter price of $4200 per ounce and a year-end price of $3700 [5]. - Bank of America anticipates gold will continue to serve as a key portfolio hedge, with an average price of $4538 per ounce by 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts gold could reach $4800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is fluctuating around the key level of 1.3500, showing signs of a halt in the recent pullback that began from a high point since September 18 [1] - Market bullish sentiment is supported by the easing of concerns regarding the UK's fiscal situation and the Bank of England's relatively hawkish policy stance [3] - The upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including the ADP private sector employment report and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy and the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] Group 2 - The dollar's recent gains lack sustained bullish momentum due to ongoing dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve and the anticipation of key macroeconomic data releases [1][3] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee recently passed a decision with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating internal divisions regarding policy direction, which has affected market expectations for future easing [3] - Recent unexpected increases in UK inflation data have led investors to adjust their expectations for more aggressive easing by the Bank of England in 2026, further strengthening the pound [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to January 4, foreign and domestic precious metals showed mixed performance, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio continuing to decline. The year - end correction in precious metals was driven by capital behavior, market panic, and CME's margin hike, leading to profit - taking and a long - position stampede. In the short term, geopolitical events, upcoming PMI, and non - farm payroll data may affect precious metal prices. The medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, but overall volatility may increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View - **Price Performance**: From December 22 to January 4, COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% to $4341.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 7.08% to $72.27 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.27% to 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 11.92% to 17,074 yuan per kilogram [4]. - **Economic Data**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate reached 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations and hitting a two - year high. However, due to the previous government shutdown, the market is cautious about the reliability and comparability of these data [4][21]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were three dissenting votes. The market expects the near - term rate - cut pace to slow or pause, while the policy path in H2 2026 depends on economic data and the new Fed chair's policy stance [4][23]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US shows a diplomatic negotiation attitude on the Ukraine issue but takes military action in Venezuela, which seriously impacts international relations. Geopolitical instability is a major factor affecting precious metal prices [4][25]. 3.2 Macro - **GDP Growth**: The Q3 2025 US GDP growth rate was 4.3%, with a total GDP of $7.79 trillion. Personal consumption, exports, and government spending contributed to growth, while non - residential fixed investment slowed, residential investment decreased, and private inventory investment dragged down growth [21]. - **Market Attitude**: Despite the strong GDP data, the market is cautious due to the previous government shutdown causing a data vacuum [21]. 3.3 Interest Rate Cut Expectations - **FOMC Meeting**: In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but three members opposed it. The change in wording in the policy statement indicates a higher threshold for future rate cuts [23]. - **Dot - Plot Projection**: The median projection in the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026. Fed Chair Powell said the current policy rate is in the "neutral" range [23]. - **Political Uncertainty**: Powell's term ends in May 2026. Some potential successors may support more aggressive rate cuts, leading to a split in market expectations [23]. 3.4 Geopolitics - **Ukraine Issue**: Trump and Zelensky reached about 95% consensus on a "20 - point peace plan" but the territorial issue remains unresolved. The US and Russia have formed a working group [25]. - **Venezuela Situation**: The US launched an air strike on Caracas on January 3, which was strongly opposed by the international community. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on this [25]. - **Greenland Claim**: Trump's claim to Greenland has drawn strong protests from Denmark [25].

Employment - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased to 199,000, better than the expected 218,000, with the previous value revised from 214,000 to 215,000[6] - Continuing claims fell from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million[6] Economic Activity - The U.S. Weekly Economic Index (WEI) was stable at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, with a four-week moving average of 2.26%[13] - The German Weekly Activity Index (WAI) rose to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, compared to 0.1% the previous week[13] Retail and Mortgage Rates - The U.S. Redbook retail sales year-on-year growth increased to 7.6%, with a four-week moving average of 6.7%[17] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. slightly decreased to 6.15% from 6.18% the previous week[20] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone marginally tightened, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the U.S. at 0.795, down from 0.807[38] - Offshore dollar liquidity showed a slight easing, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar improving from -24.125 pips to -21.5 pips[43] Commodity Prices - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, following a 1.8% increase the previous week[34] - U.S. gasoline prices continued to decline, averaging $2.69 per gallon, down 1.1% from the previous week[34] Federal Spending - U.S. federal spending for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%[54]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and upcoming economic data, with gold likely to maintain a high-level consolidation and silver exhibiting more pronounced volatility [9] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - Key US economic data, including December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing index, and housing sales, will be released next week, affecting market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, which in turn will directly or indirectly impact precious metals [2] - Strong economic data may suppress safe-haven demand for precious metals in the short term, while weak data could boost gold and silver prices [2] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - In an uncertain macro environment with limited dollar fluctuations, gold is likely to continue its high-level consolidation, with key support around $4,380–$4,400 and resistance at the psychological level of $4,500–$4,520 [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but the medium to long-term trend remains bullish [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is more sensitive to dollar and macro data fluctuations, showing higher volatility this week, which may continue into the next week [4] - Support for silver is noted around $75–$76, with resistance near $78 [4] Group 4: Capital Flows - While macro data and dollar trends are key short-term factors, capital behavior remains the core underlying logic for precious metal prices, with capital inflows and structural adjustments potentially creating short-term volatility [5] Group 5: Technical Indicators - Daily and weekly technical indicators show that both gold and silver are above major moving averages, with short-term RSI close to high levels but not yet in the overbought zone, suggesting that prices may maintain a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal [6] Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - Global geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine situation, Middle East conflicts, and US-Latin America relations, continue to affect market sentiment, with risk events potentially leading to short-term inflows into gold and silver, amplifying price volatility [7] Group 7: Trading Recommendations - Traders should focus on short-term opportunities around the release of macro data, while considering support and resistance levels for operations [8] - Long-term investors should pay attention to the interplay between dollar trends and capital flows to assess the likelihood of trend continuation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of the medium - term overseas monetary policy trend, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet, and the prices of gold and silver will still show a continuously strong performance. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is from 983 to 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver, it is from 15,666 to 17,500 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.42% to 1012.58 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.14% to 16,961.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4515.00 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver at 71.61 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was at 97.90 [2] - The US economic data released yesterday significantly exceeded market expectations, suppressing the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2] 3.2 US Economic Data - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. However, many items were affected by the price of medical insurance. The price index of the US GDP in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. This economic data did not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level [3] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the US in December was - 7, better than the expected - 10 and the previous value of - 15 [3] 3.3 Market Expectations for Fed Interest Rate Cuts - After the data release, the market reduced the pricing of the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year. The CME Interest Rate Observer showed that the current market expectation for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the January FOMC meeting next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.7% [3] - Trump claimed that "anyone who opposes him will never get the position of Federal Reserve Chairman" and said that if the market performs well, he hopes the new Federal Reserve Chairman will lower interest rates [3] 3.4 Gold and Silver Data Details - **Gold**: For COMEX gold, the CFTC latest - reported weekly open interest was 43.26 million lots (up 3.36% from 41.85 million lots), and the inventory was 1125 tons (up 0.11% from 1123 tons). For SHFE gold, the open interest was 37.09 million lots (up 1.27% from 36.63 million lots), and the inventory was 93.71 tons (up 2.18% from 91.72 tons). The settled funds flowed in by 2.62% to 601.97 billion yuan [6] - **Silver**: For COMEX silver, the CFTC latest - reported weekly open interest was 15.48 million lots (up 2.61% from 15.08 million lots), and the inventory was 14,024 tons (up 0.05% from 14,017 tons). For SHFE silver, the open interest was 79.49 million lots (up 1.19% from 78.56 million lots), and the inventory was 899.66 tons (down 0.20% from 901.47 tons). The settled funds flowed in by 2.63% to 352.86 billion yuan [6]