数据显示，白银支持的交易所交易基金周二增持约200吨，推动总持仓量升至2022年以来最高水平，反 映需求强劲。 上月亦有创纪录数量的白银流入伦敦，导致其他枢纽的供应趋紧。 周三(12月3日)亚洲时段，现货白银短线出现一波跳水行情，白银价格一度跌幅超1.00%，最新白银价格 持稳于58美元附近，徘徊在历史高位附近，年内迄今涨幅约达100%，今晚美国多个经济数据驾到，四 大指标炸盘在即，目前来看，银价盘内短线偏向调整回撤。 【要闻速递】 白银价格周三持稳于每盎司58美元附近，徘徊在历史高位附近，年内迄今涨幅约达100%。此轮涨势受 到供应趋紧以及对美联储将进一步降息的预期支撑。 今日的基本面主要关注21：15的美国11月ADP就业人数，本轮预期2万人，前值4.2万人，随后看21:30的 美国9月进口物价指数月率。稍晚看22:15的美国9月工业产出月率和22:45的美国11月标普全球服务业 PMI终值和23:00的美国11月ISM非制造业PMI。 【最新白银行情解析】 白银收锤子阳线，逼近前高，徘徊于日线布林上轨附近，4小时回踩56.60一线企稳，上方关注59压制， 另外警惕白银行情周三、周四是否变盘，如果变盘的话 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals futures industry is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metals rose smoothly driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The market's pricing for a December rate cut is over 85%. Silver's increase was significantly higher than that of gold. With the temporary easing of Sino - US trade and the start of important Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations, the world's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and the Fed's rate - cut cycle increased the risk appetite for stocks and other commodities, suppressing gold. Gold may face high - level oscillations in the medium term, while silver may have a catch - up rally [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity was basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 a slight increase. The overall outlook is unchanged, and some point out an increased risk of economic slowdown in the next few months. After the US government shutdown, more economic tracking data will be available, and the US economic downward pressure is increasing. If Trump chooses a dovish Fed chair, the expectation of a January rate cut will increase, boosting the upward momentum of precious metals, especially silver. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations passively, and its volatility will strengthen [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Precious metals rose last week due to Fed rate - cut expectations. The market's pricing for a December rate cut is over 85%. Silver outperformed gold. Gold may face high - level oscillations in the medium term, and silver may have a catch - up rally [2] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates mixed economic activity in different districts. The US economic downward pressure is increasing. A dovish Fed chair may boost precious metals in January, and silver's volatility will strengthen [3] Attention Factors - Factors to watch include Fed rate - cut expectations, international geopolitics, and US economic data exceeding expectations [4] Charts and Data - The report presents multiple charts related to the futures market (gold and silver futures prices, trading volume, and positions), interest rates and exchange rates (dollar index, US interest rates vs. gold prices), macro - data (US CPI, PCE inflation, employment, PMI, etc.), and fund positions and ratios (ETF positions, asset management institutional positions, gold - silver ratio, etc.) all sourced from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [5][11][15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the US dollar is supporting silver prices, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve influencing market sentiment [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - As of December 1, 2025, the spot silver price is at $57.24 per ounce, with a daily range between $56.15 and $57.86 [1][2]. - The silver price opened at $56.32 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Expectations - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI report is anticipated to impact market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. - There is an increased betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a probability of 87.4% for this outcome [3]. - The market is also pricing in a 67.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January 2026 [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver - The silver price remains significantly above the 100-day EMA of $45.60, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. - The RSI is at 73.47, suggesting an overbought condition, which may lead to a potential consolidation phase [4]. - Initial support for a price pullback is identified at the Bollinger Band midline near $51.29, with further support at $51.04 if the first level fails [4].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月28日16时13分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属全面分化，沪金主力收涨0.76%，沪银主力收涨3.21%，铂金主力收跌0.59%，钯金主力收跌2.63%。。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可 能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七 个月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储 12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值 利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力 。⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略 ...

基本面： 周四（11月27日）亚盘时段，现货黄金表现清淡进一步收窄波动区间，目前暂交投于4153美元附近。周三，现货黄金价格强势攀升，刷新逾一周高位，收报 每盎司4163.78美元，涨幅达0.8%，盘中一度触及4173.31美元的峰值。这一波上涨行情的背后，主要得益于市场对美联储12月降息预期的急剧升温，使得无 收益的黄金在低利率环境中脱颖而出。结合近期美国经济数据、美元走势、债市和股市的表现，以及美联储褐皮书的最新洞察，黄金市场的乐观前景正在逐 步展开。 美国近期公布的经济数据呈现出复杂的图景，一方面显示出劳动力市场的韧性，另一方面也暴露了潜在的疲软，这进一步强化了黄金作为避险工具的吸引 力。截至11月22日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人，创下4月以来最低水平，超出经济学家预期的22.5万人。这表明裁员活动仍处于较低 水平，企业支出也表现出色——9月份不包括飞机在内的非国防资本财订单增加0.9%，8月数据上修至同样水平。这些强劲指标本应提振美元和股市，但却 未能逆转降息预期，因为投资者更关注持续的经济不确定性。 另一份报告显示，续请失业金人数仍在上升，消费者对劳动力市场的信心正在下滑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment due to recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve officials' comments, with expectations for a rate cut in December remaining high [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market, while continuing claims rose slightly to 1.96 million, suggesting a decline in job demand in some sectors [1]. - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, exceeding market expectations, with core orders (excluding transportation and defense) growing by 0.9%, indicating sustained corporate investment [1]. - PPI and retail sales were slightly below expectations, and consumer confidence surveys showed households remain cautious about income and employment prospects [1][3]. Currency and Commodity Market Summary - The U.S. dollar index has declined for four consecutive days, with major non-U.S. currencies benefiting, including the euro testing the 1.1600 level and the British pound rising for five days [2]. - Gold prices have been supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a rate cut, with silver also reaching a two-week high [3]. - The Dow Jones index has risen for four consecutive days, reflecting improved risk appetite amid expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [3]. Market Outlook - The combination of resilient employment and weakening demand is stabilizing expectations for a December rate cut, with the dollar remaining weak and both gold and risk assets benefiting [4][5]. - Upcoming data releases post-Thanksgiving, including durable goods orders and consumer spending, will be crucial for market pricing ahead of the December meeting [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

同时，美国商务部26日发布数据显示，美国9月份制造的耐用品新订单环比增长0.5%，虽然明显低于8 月份修正后的3.0%的增幅，但仍超过了市场预期的0.3%。且剔除飞机的非国防资本品订单（即核心资 本品）环比大增0.9%，也超过了市场的预期。 不过，稍晚公布的美联储最新褐皮书显示，12个辖区中多数报告经济活动基本持平，两个辖区出现小幅 下滑，仅一个录得小幅增长。整体前景未显著变化，但部分受访者警告未来数月经济放缓风险加大。 整体来看，近两日公布的美国经济数据均未对美联储12月降息预期产生显著影响。但在纽约联储主席约 翰·威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利近期"鸽派"言论的支持下，投资者对美联储将在12月政策会议 上再次降息25个基点的押注仍维持在80%左右的较高水平。 当日发布的美国经济数据整体偏多，市场对美联储12月继续降息的预期变化不大，加上感恩节假期前交 易清淡放大了价格波动，最终驱动黄金和白银价格继续走高。 具体来看，美国劳工部26日发布数据显示，截至11月22日当周，美国首次申请失业救济人数较前一周减 少6000人，至21.6万人，连续第三周下降，与2月份以来的最低水平持平，低于市场预期的22.5万人 ...

Gold - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the U.S. economy requires significant interest rate cuts, as current monetary policy is raising borrowing costs, increasing unemployment, and slowing economic growth. He supports a 50 basis point cut due to recent employment slowdown and declining inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed concerns about the labor market and advocated for another rate cut in December, followed by gradual adjustments in subsequent meetings [1] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes the probability of a December rate cut has risen, which is expected to boost gold prices [1] - Technically, gold has been on an upward trend since November 24, maintaining above $4100, with resistance at $4176 and a key support level at $4140 [1] Oil - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated significant progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump expressing optimism about a potential agreement, contingent on finalizing a ceasefire [2] - If a ceasefire is achieved, sanctions on Russian oil exports may be lifted, exacerbating the global oversupply risk due to OPEC+ production increases earlier this year [2] - Technically, oil has been in a downward trend since October 24, with strong support around $57, and resistance at $59.60. A drop below $57 could lead to a further decline towards $55 [2] Dollar Index - U.S. September retail sales data showed a 0.2% increase, below the previous 0.6% and the expected 0.4%. The September PPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, consistent with expectations [3] - ADP private sector employment data revealed an average weekly layoff of 13,500 employees, an increase of 2,500 from the previous month. The U.S. consumer confidence index for November was reported at 88.7, the lowest since April [3] - Technically, the dollar index fell below the 100 level, with a focus on the important support level at 99.40. A break below this level could indicate a double top formation on the 4-hour chart [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shifted from a downward trend to a sideways movement, indicating an increased probability of a bottoming out. After three weeks of adjustment, it is approaching a decision point [4] - A breakout above 50100 could signal a new upward trend, while support is noted at 48580 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been fluctuating between $4.85 and $5.22 for the past two and a half months, with a narrowing range indicating an impending directional decision. A breakout above $5.11 could initiate a new upward trend, while a drop below $4.85 may lead to a deeper correction towards $4.63 [6] - The immediate support level is at $4.98 [6]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.45%报 945.76 元/克，沪银涨 0.76%报 12103 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 25 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1040.86 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 70.52 吨，当前持仓量为 15582.33 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 84.9% ...