专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月27日，美国与伊朗同意进一步核谈判后，黄金价格趋于稳定，因为美国在中东的军事扩张使市场对 冲突潜在风险保持紧张。最新消息来自调解国阿曼，称美伊核谈判取得重大进展，将很快再次会谈。 ▲ATFX图 黄金隔夜轻微反弹，本周周线有望录得上涨。根据调解国阿曼的说法，华盛顿与德黑兰在周四取得'重 大进展'后，将于下周继续谈判，为进一步的外交开启大门。然而，一位熟悉美国立场的人士表示，官 员们对谈判进展感到失望。 今年迄今黄金上涨约20%，在一月底创下历史新高后，重新回到每盎司5，000美元以上。金条价格有望 连续第七个月上涨，这将是自1973年以来最长的连续涨幅。持续的地缘政治与贸易紧张局势，以及所谓 的美元贬值贸易，以及对联准会独立性的担忧，都为这波多年反弹增添了动力。 ▲ATFX图 根据彭博社的数据，随着市场稳定，投资人也开始增加持有黄金支持的交易所交易基金（ETF），本周 至周四的流入量超过本月初的抛售，显示市场买兴进一步回归，有望支撑黄金价格在持稳中寻求更大反 弹。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月27日，美国与伊朗同意进一步核谈判后，黄金价格趋于稳定，因为美国在中东的军事扩张使市 ...

北京时间周五晚9点30分，美国将公布最新的批发通胀数据（PPI），市场希望据此获得价格走势的下 一个线索。这份详细列出卖方商品售价的报告因政府停摆而推迟发布。 经济学家预计，1月份的价格压力依然稳固，尽管不如去年12月份那样强烈。这可能预示着美联储最看 重的通胀指标将保持粘性，从而可能导致进一步降息的动力停滞。 接受FactSet调查的经济学家预计，1月份批发通胀率环比上升0.3%。这比12月份0.5%的月度增速有所降 温，但仍是一个相对坚挺的数据。预计年增长率为2.6%，较12月份3%的同比增幅有所回落。 如果1月份的PPI数据高于预期，这可能会使未来几个月的PCE通胀保持坚挺，并让降息变得遥不可及。 FBB Capital Partners的研究总监Mike Bailey写道："PPI数据如果符合预期，对经济和市场似乎是中性或 有利的。"他补充说，如果PPI强于预期，可能会降低美联储下次降息的可能性，并拖累股市。 然而，加拿大皇家银行（RBC）美国经济研究主管Mike Reid写道，数据强于预期的风险相当高。他预 计周五将再次看到一份"相当火热的PPI报告"，1月份整体和核心价格增长均环比上升0.5%，整 ...

非农略有好转，可延后但不足以阻止降息 2026 年 2 月 27 日 宏观经济 事件点评 | | | 事件： 美国 1 月季调后非农就业增 13 万，预期 7 万，前值 5 万；失业率 4.3%，预期 4.4%，前值 4.4%。2025 年 11 月和 12 月份 非农新增就业人数分别下调 1.5 万和 0.2 万至 4.1 万和 4.8 万。 主要观点： 数据方面，就业新增主要集中于医疗（8.2 万）、社会辅助（4.2 万）和建筑（3.8 万），而联邦政府（-3.4 万）和金融业（-2.2 万）新增下降。私营部门非农就业尚可，特别是顺周期部门。扣除政府就业，私营部门非农新增就业数 17.2 万；扣除政府和 医疗就业，其他非农就业新增 9 万，为 2023 年 7 月以来的较高水平。政府和医疗就业顺周期性不强，特别是疫情以后，扣 除前后的非农就业新增分歧较大，扣除后的非农新增更能反映实际的就业体感。 具体来看，商品生产新增 3.6 万，主要集中于建筑业 3.3 万，制造业 0.5 万。建筑业主要集中于非地产行业（2.5 万），推测 仍与 AI 基础设施建设相关。半导体和其他电子器件制造就业在过去 12 个月就 ...

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices experienced a slight increase of 0.4%, closing at $5183.88, after dipping to around $5130 but supported by buying interest [1] - Silver prices initially broke the $90 mark but fell over 4%, ultimately closing down 1.01% at $88.3, with current trading around $89.47 [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The latest unemployment claims report showed 212,000 initial claims, slightly below the expected 215,000, indicating a stable U.S. economy without overheating or cooling [5] - The report suggests that the urgency for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be less pressing, as market expectations shifted from certainty of a June rate cut to a more uncertain outlook [5] - Federal Reserve officials expressed a cautious optimism regarding potential rate cuts, with suggestions for a total of 1% reduction over four meetings this year [6][8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report is anticipated, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase, which could influence the Fed's interest rate decisions [9] - If PPI data exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates, while lower-than-expected data could ease tightening concerns, benefiting gold and equities [9] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns in the stock market were heightened by warnings from notable investor Michael Burry regarding potential risks in Nvidia's financial health due to weak demand for AI chips [12]

有色金属ETF国泰（159881）跟踪的是中证有色指数（930708），该指数从中国A股市场中选取有色金 属行业涉及采选、冶炼与加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖工业金属、贵金属及稀有金属 等领域，以反映有色金属相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 2月27日，有色板块盘中走高，有色金属ETF国泰（159881）盘中涨超3% 华福证券指出，工业金属行业呈现降息预期博弈，预期震荡。具体来看，铜方面，短期美联储降息预期 仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国内货币 政策空间，叠加特朗普政府后续可能宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带 动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。铝方面，短期处于季节性淡季或导致铝价震荡运行；中长期看，国内 天花板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

美联储理事米兰表示，他不认为美国目前存在通胀问题，今年应降息1个百分点，分四次每次降息25个 基点，且宜早不宜迟。 中金财富期货分析指出，伊朗与美国在瑞士日内瓦举行的两国第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗方面称取得进 展，谈判的斡旋方阿曼称取得重大进展。而美伊谈判一波三折，黄金走势仍较为波动，预计短期内仍以 震荡为主。 每日经济新闻 2月26日，金价冲高回落，COMEX黄金期货价格一度跌至5144美元，尾盘受美联储官员鸽派言论影响 小幅拉升。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）跌0.36%，黄金股ETF（159562）跌1.64%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）跌0.74%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在与美国于日内瓦进行的第三轮间接核谈判结束后表 示，这是迄今为止"最严肃、持续时间最长"的一次谈判，"取得了良好进展"，在某些领域，双方已"接 近达成共识"。 ...

美股方面，三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.03%报49499.2点，标普500指数跌0.54%报6908.86点，纳 指跌1.18%报22878.38点。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.78%。个股方面，盛美半导体跌超16%，百济神州跌逾8%，万 国数据跌超7%，名创优品跌近6%，百度集团跌超5%，贝壳跌逾5%。 2月27日早间，黄金与白银小幅波动，美联储降息与美伊谈判再度传来大消息。 现货黄金与白银今早低开后集体翻红。 消息面上，无论从降息概率还是美联储官员的表态来看，美联储对今年降息存在分歧。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为4%，维持利率不变的概率为96.0%。美联储 到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为17.3%，维持利率不变的概率为82.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 0.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为43%。 美联储官员古尔斯比表示，在美联储内部，他是今年对降息较为乐观的人之一；希望确保通胀走势处于 正轨。如果通胀回落，利率今年可以降更多。利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就提前大幅降 ...

今年春节期间，周大福、老庙黄金、中国黄金等国内多家主流黄金品牌的首饰金价重回1500元/克。这 使得黄金首饰成为不少游客免税购物的首选，三亚多家免税店的黄金珠宝柜台前排起长龙，人潮涌动， 消费热情可见一斑。 近期，国际金价高位震荡加剧。2月26日午后，伦敦金现货价格再度站上5200美元/盎司关口，盘中最高 报5205.47美元/盎司。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 最近四个交易日，伦敦金现货价格在5200美元/盎司关口附近持续震荡。2月26日午后，虽然金价再度冲 高至5205.47美元/盎司，但仍未能站稳脚跟。 当前市场多空分歧加剧。一方面，美联储降息预期出现松动，美国2025年12月核心PCE同比涨幅为 3%，仍高于政策目标1个百分点；另一方面，地缘局势不确定性支撑了避险需求。因此，金价处于短期 震荡整理阶段。 机构相关人士认为，在降息信号进一步明确之前，金价短期内难以实现快速突破。中长期来看，供需关 系偏紧与货币体系变革为金价上行提供支撑，美联储政策走向与白银价格的传导效应仍是重要观察变 量。 金价高位震荡 同日，A股市场上，黄金股整体承压出现回落，Wind黄金指数下跌0.81%。其中，四川黄金跌超2%，中 金黄金 ...

芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比重申，如果有更多证据表明通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标回落，利率可以在 2026年进一步下调。 古尔斯比周四接受采访时表示："只要我们能看到人们预测的通胀进展，我对今年利率还能再下调几次 有一定信心。" 他还说："我只是不想在真正掌握通胀正朝着我们期望水平回落的证据之前，就过于提前地采取行动。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比重申，如果有更多证据表明通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标回落，利率可以在 2026年进一步下调。 古尔斯比周四接受采访时表示："只要我们能看到人们预测的通胀进展，我对今年利率还能再下调几次 有一定信心。" 他还说："我只是不想在真正掌握通胀正朝着我们期望水平回落的证据之前，就过于提前地采取行动。" 责任编辑：李桐 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...