来源：市场资讯 （来源：PTA的世界） 聚酯行业周度报告 2025年11月28日-12月4日聚酯行业周度报告 报告日期：2025年12月4日 核心逻辑：本周聚酯产业链呈现"原料端偏强、下游需求疲软"的分化格局，PX、PTA因供应偏紧价格上 行，而涤纶长丝等终端产品受订单不足拖累价格走弱；产业链利润整体向原料端转移，多数聚酯成品仍 处于亏损状态；终端织造开工率下滑，成品库存累积，行业整体供需矛盾有所加剧。 一、产业链价格走势 （一）上游原料价格 1.原油：国际油价涨跌互现，布伦特原油本期均价62.97美元/桶，较上期微跌0.01美元/桶，跌幅0.02%； WTI原油期货均价58.87美元/桶，环比上涨0.34美元/桶，涨幅0.58%，主要受俄乌局势及供应过剩担忧 博弈影响。 2.PX：供应偏紧推动价格走强，CFR中国PX本期均价842.07美元/吨，环比上涨14.70美元/吨，涨幅 1.78%，国内工厂歧化降负荷加剧市场看涨情绪，PX-N价差升至275.22元/吨，环比上涨4.19%。 3.PTA：成本支撑叠加供需紧平衡，华东PTA现货周均价4690元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅1.41%；本 周国内PTA产 ...

聚酯产业链展望：成本弱供需强，产业链价格保持强势 20251204 摘要 聚酯产业链需求保持良好，但 PTA 因装置检修供应下降，乙二醇港口库 存持续上升，价格走势疲软，跌幅超过原油，与 PS 和 PT 价格在原油下 跌时上涨形成对比。 OPEC 暂停部分原油生产，缓解供应过剩预期，但 EIA 预测全球原油仍 将过剩。美国原油产量创新高，汽油库存回升，价格创近年新低。预计 12 月至明年 1 月原油需求将好转，但供应过剩和地缘政治风险限制价格 反弹空间。 PS 产量同比下降，消费量增加，供不应求，加工费升至年内高位，价格 持续上涨，受益于聚酯产业链需求。若原油价格反弹，PS 价格可能走强， 但需求回落则可能导致价格下跌。 2025 年 PTA 新增产能较大，但 2026 年无新增产能，供应压力较小。 PTA 库存持续回落，加工费虽低但有所回升，需关注装置重启情况和开 工率变动。 Q&A 今年以来原油及其相关产业链的价格表现如何？ 2025 年全年，原油价格整体表现偏弱，累计跌幅接近 20%。然而，在整个产 业链中，PS 和 PT 的价格表现明显偏强。尽管有涨有跌，但整体跌幅并不大。 相比之下，乙二醇（EG）的 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/3 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 7 | 453.8 | -1.90 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,PTA缓慢去库存中,下游刚需偏稳, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1450. 4 | 1454. 2 | 3.81 | PTA行情小涨。而PTA仓单数量较多,PTA现货基差上涨 之力。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4380 | 1. 4410 | 0. 0030 | | | | CFR中国PX | 849 | 849 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 277 | 282 | 5 | | | | PTA主力期 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost rebound drives PX and TA prices up, and attention should be paid to changes in polyester inventory [1] - Overall, the future price trend of PX and PTA is judged to be bullish or neutral - strong, with support from supply - side cost, potential demand strength, and low inventory pressure [54][61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 28, the PX main contract closed at 6830.0 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 263.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4700.0 yuan/ton, up 1.47%, with a basis of - 90.0 yuan/ton [2] - Cost - end: On November 28, Brent crude's main contract closed at 62.92 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 59.1 dollars/barrel [2] - Supply - end: High PX device operating rate and stable PTA operating rate may push up PTA manufacturing cost and limit supply elasticity, providing upward support for PTA price [2] - Demand - end: Stable polyester operating rate may strengthen PTA's terminal consumption demand, especially in the polyester fiber field; stable or rising light textile city trading volume can boost PTA consumption, but seasonal demand decline may weaken price upward momentum [2] - Inventory - end: Low PTA factory inventory and deepening negative basis may strengthen upward pressure on futures prices; inventory accumulation may suppress price rebound space [3] Polyester - On November 28, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6250.0 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6295.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45.0 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 of light textile city trading volume decreased from 710 million meters to 698.47 million meters, a decline of about 1.6%, indicating weakening terminal demand [4] - Polyester short - fiber inventory (6.28 days) is higher than the five - year average (4.96 days), while polyester filament (POY, FDY, DTY) inventories are lower than historical averages, showing inventory differentiation with prominent short - fiber pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price rose 1.67%, trading volume decreased 26.72%, and open interest increased 2.16%; PX spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 74.17% [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 1.47%, trading volume decreased 15.89%, and open interest increased 0.70%; PTA spot prices remained unchanged, and the basis decreased 309.09% [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price rose 1.43%, trading volume decreased 22.55%, and open interest decreased 5.18%; the spot price in the East China market rose 0.24%, and the basis decreased 61.86% [5] - Other industrial chain prices: Brent crude, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, and polyester bottle - chip prices remained unchanged; polyester chip, polyester POY, DTY, and FDY prices decreased [5] - Processing spreads: The spreads of naphtha and PX remained unchanged, while those of PTA, polyester chip, polyester bottle - chip, polyester short - fiber, POY, DTY, and FDY decreased [6] - Light textile city trading volume: The total volume was 778 million meters, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143 million meters [6] - Industrial chain load rates: PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rates remained unchanged [6] - Inventory days: Polyester short - fiber, POY, and FDY inventory days increased, while DTY inventory days decreased [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On November 27, traders increased bets on the Bank of England's interest - rate cuts, expecting a cumulative 68 - basis - point cut by the end of 2026 [7] - On November 27, the US Treasury announced the replacement index value of October's CPI for inflation - protected Treasury bonds [7] - The Fed's Beige Book on November 27 showed that economic activity remained basically unchanged in recent weeks, with intensified consumer polarization [7] Supply - demand (Demand) - On November 27, the total trading volume in the light textile city was 778.0 million meters, a 14.58% month - on - month increase, with long - fiber fabric volume at 637.0 million meters and short - fiber fabric volume at 143.0 million meters [8] 4. Analysis of Future Price Trends Supply - end - High crude oil prices increase PX costs, which may drive up PX prices and support PTA supply costs; stable device operation can control supply pressure [53][59] Demand - end - Although there is no direct data, the rising prices may indicate good demand in the polyester and textile industries, but cautious judgment is needed [53][59] Inventory - end - Negative basis may indicate low inventory or strong futures expectations, suggesting potential price increases or low inventory levels [53][60]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/12/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/28 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 447.6 | 453.9 | 6. 30 | 成交情况: PTA:盘中原油行情反弹,成本支撑增强,PTA行情小 涨。或因PTA去库存速度放缓,PTA基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1379. 2 | 1401.5 | 22. 22 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4240 | 1. 4249 | 0. 0009 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 826 | 836 | 10 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 268 | 264 | -5 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) ...

Group 1: Report Title and Information - Report title: "Polyester Weekly Report 2025/11/29: Blending Narrative Pauses, but Supply and Demand Expectations Support Valuation" [1] - Contact person: Ma Guiyan, contact number: 13923915659, email: magy@wkqh.cn [1] - Transaction consultation number: Z0020397, qualification number: F03136381 [1] - Author: Liu Jiewen (Energy and Chemical Group), qualification number: F03097315 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN fluctuated and declined after reaching a high. Although the strong expectations for next year supported it to stop falling and rebound, the current PX load remains high, and there are many downstream PTA overhauls. The overall load center is low. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season for downstream products suppress PTA processing fees. The low PTA operation makes it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. It is expected that PX will slightly accumulate inventory in November. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees mainly showed a slight repair, mainly because continuous unexpected overhauls led to a certain repair of the balance sheet expectations. In the future, on the supply side, as processing fees gradually stabilize and repair, it is expected that unexpected overhauls will gradually decrease. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high in the short term. However, due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, the load of bottle chips is difficult to increase. In terms of valuation, the upside space of PTA processing fees is limited without further stimulation. In the short term, due to the weakening of aromatics blending data, PX lacks the driving force to increase its valuation under a slight surplus, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction for PXN [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the domestic plant load is lower than expected due to a large number of unexpected overhauls. It is expected that the domestic supply volume will decrease in December, and the import volume will slightly decline. The port inventory accumulation rate may slow down. In the medium term, as the overhauls end, it is expected that the domestic output will still be high. Coupled with the gradual commissioning of new plants, the supply - demand pattern is still weak. The current valuation is relatively low compared to the same period, but it is necessary to further reduce the load to slow down the inventory accumulation process. It is recommended to short - allocate on rallies in the medium term [13]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 80 yuan to 6830 yuan. The CFR China price in the spot market fell by 7 US dollars to 826 US dollars. The spot - converted basis rose by 10 yuan, reaching - 9 yuan as of November 29. The 1 - 3 spread fell by 14 yuan, reaching - 14 yuan as of November 28 [11]. - Supply side: Last week, the Chinese load was 88.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the Asian load was 78.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, the 550,000 - ton plant of GS in South Korea reduced its load. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 275,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle of November, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, although there were some unexpected plant situations recently, the contribution to the reduction of supply was small, and the subsequent domestic maintenance volume was still small, with the load remaining high [11]. - Demand side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [11]. - Inventory: The social inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month inventory increase of 48,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from November to December, mainly due to a significant increase in PTA maintenance volume [11]. - Valuation cost side: As of November 27, PXN was 260 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1 US dollar; the naphtha crack spread fell by 5 US dollars, reaching 105 US dollars as of November 27, and the crude oil trend fluctuated. In terms of aromatics blending, last week, the gasoline crack spread between the US and Asia declined, the US gasoline inventory increased, the aromatics spread between the US and Asia decreased, and the relative value of blending declined [11]. PTA - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 34 yuan to 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China fell by 20 yuan to 4610 yuan. The spot basis rose by 25 yuan, reaching - 38 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread fell by 8 yuan, reaching - 52 yuan as of November 28 [12]. - Supply side: The PTA load was 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. In terms of plants, Honggang restarted, and Zhongtai increased its load. The unexpected maintenance volume of PTA in November increased, and it may enter a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [12]. - Inventory: As of November 21, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.23 million tons, a month - on - month de - stocking of 33,000 tons. The downstream load remained high, and the expected increase in PTA maintenance volume in November is expected to lead to a phased de - stocking stage [12]. - Profit side: Last week, the spot processing fee increased by 25 yuan, reaching 190 yuan/ton as of November 27; the disk processing fee increased by 9 yuan, reaching 225 yuan/ton as of November 27 [12]. MEG - Price performance: Last week, it fluctuated strongly. The 01 contract rose by 77 yuan to 3885 yuan. The spot price in East China rose by 15 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis fell by 28 yuan, reaching 4 yuan as of November 28. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, reaching - 93 yuan as of November 28 [13]. - Supply side: Last week, the EG load was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%; the ethylene - based load was 73.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In terms of synthetic gas - based plants, Yankuang resumed production, Hongsifang was restarting, and Meijin increased its load; in terms of petrochemical plants, Hainan Refining and Chemical reduced its load, Zhenhai and Yuandonglian increased their loads, Shenghong restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou was under maintenance; overseas, South Asia in the United States had an unexpected shutdown, and plants such as Morvarid in Iran, Donglian in Taiwan, China, and Zhongxian were under maintenance. Overall, there were many unexpected overhauls recently, and the subsequent load will improve compared to the previous high level. In terms of arrivals, the arrival forecast last week was 95,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The imports in October were 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester load was 91.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. Among them, the filament load was 94.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the staple fiber load was 97.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the bottle chip load was 72.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In terms of plants, there were few overall changes, and the load of some plants recovered. In terms of polyester, profits were repaired, the short - term inventory pressure was low, the terminal was gradually entering the off - season, but the current load was still high. It is expected that the polyester fiber load will remain high in the short term; the bottle chip load will mainly remain stable in the short term due to inventory pressure and the downstream off - season. At the terminal, the finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, the texturing load was 87%, unchanged from the previous month; the loom load was 72%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the polyester yarn load was 66%, unchanged from the previous month. In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 13.5% year - on - year [13]. - Inventory: As of November 24, the port inventory was 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month; the downstream factory inventory days were 15 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume decreased last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. It is expected that the port inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The increase in unexpected domestic plant overhauls and the expected decrease in overseas arrivals in December have improved the ethylene glycol balance sheet expectations [13]. - Valuation cost side: The naphtha - based production profit increased by 70 yuan to - 828 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based production profit increased by 21 yuan to - 668 yuan/ton, and the coal - based production profit decreased by 224 yuan to - 74 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 680 yuan/ton. The coal cost rebounded, and ethylene remained stable. Currently, the overall valuation is moderately low [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [32][35]. - PTA: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [44][47]. - MEG: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest data were presented through multiple charts [57][65]. - Overseas commodity prices: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China were presented through charts [75]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - Supply: The load remained at a high level. The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates were presented through charts [82]. - Import: The import volume decreased slightly in October. The import data from different regions were presented through charts [86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory accumulation in October. The social inventory and warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [88]. - Cost - profit: PXN was strong, the short - process spread widened, and the naphtha crack spread was strong. The relevant cost - profit data were presented through multiple charts [92]. - Aromatics blending: The gasoline performance weakened, and data on octane value, aromatics spreads, blending relative value, South Korean aromatics inventory, and trade were presented through multiple charts [99][105][109][111][114][122]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new PTA production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [133]. - Load: The load data were presented through a chart [136]. - Export: The total export and export data to specific regions were presented through charts [138]. - Inventory: The end - of - period inventory, in - plant inventory days, and total warehouse receipt data were presented through charts [140]. - Profit valuation: The processing fee was slightly repaired. The spot processing fee, disk processing fee, and acetic acid cost data were presented through charts [142]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - New capacity: There were new MEG production capacities put into operation in 2024 and 2025. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [146]. - Supply: The operating rate rebounded. The overall operating rate, synthetic gas - based operating rate, and ethylene - based operating rate data were presented through charts [149]. - Import: The import data from different regions were presented through charts [152]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation slowed down this week, and the upstream and downstream factory inventories were high. The relevant inventory data were presented through multiple charts [159]. - Cost: Coal prices fluctuated, and ethylene prices were weak. The relevant cost data were presented through charts [169]. - Profit: The naphtha - based production profit declined to the lowest level of the year, and the coal - based production profit was significantly compressed. The relevant profit data were presented through multiple charts [172]. 6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - New capacity: There were new polyester production capacities put into operation, mainly in the form of polyester filament and bottle chip. The new capacity data were presented through a table and charts [186]. - Basis: The staple fiber basis was strong, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [189]. - Supply: The operating rate remained stable at a high level. The downstream proportion and operating rate data were presented through charts [192]. - Inventory: The filament inventory was at a low level. The inventory data of different polyester products were presented through charts [200]. - Sales rate: The sales rate data of filament, staple fiber, and chips were presented through charts [206]. - Profit: The filament profit was repaired. The profit data of different polyester products were presented through charts [209]. - Terminal - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The operating rate data of different terminal industries were presented through charts [213]. - Order and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation decreased. The relevant data were presented through charts [222]. - Textile and clothing and soft drinks: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand recovered, and exports were weak. The relevant data were presented through charts [226]. - US clothing inventory: The wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally. The relevant data were presented through charts [228].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit margins and low pure benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester开工 remains stable, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. The downstream weaving industry is performing well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price, and new device production is putting pressure on the price. Coal prices have risen, but the cost support for ethylene glycol is not strong. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 447.9 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/24 to 448.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/25, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price decreased from 1425.1 yuan/ton to 1396.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 29.09 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4378 to 1.4282, a change of - 0.0096 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price remained at 826, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 264 to 263, a change of - 1 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price decreased from 4680 yuan/ton to 4656 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton; the spot price remained at 4630 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee increased from 212.0 yuan/ton to 213.4 yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 262.0 yuan/ton to 239.4 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.7 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from (49) to (43), a change of 6.0; the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 117828 to 118438, a change of 610 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price decreased from 3884 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (144.73) to (144.92), a change of - 0.2; the MEG domestic price increased from 3890 to 3920, a change of 30.0; the main basis decreased from 35 to 33, a change of - 2.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate decreased from 87.39% to 86.48%, a change of - 0.91% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate increased from 72.11% to 73.44%, a change of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate increased from 60.33% to 61.48%, a change of 1.15% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 89.19%, a change of 0.00% [2]. 3. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Fibers - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6545 to 6500, a change of - 45.0; POY cash flow decreased from 33 to (22), a change of - 55.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6755 to 6755, a change of - 70.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (187) to (267), a change of - 80.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7865 to 7855, a change of - 10.0; DTY cash flow decreased from 153 to 133, a change of - 20.0; the filament sales rate increased from 43% to 96%, a change of 53% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple price increased from 6350 to 6385, a change of 35; the staple fiber cash flow increased from 188 to 213, a change of 25.0; the staple fiber sales rate increased from 65% to 79%, a change of 14% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5545 to 5550, a change of 5.0; the chip cash flow decreased from (67) to (72), a change of - 5.0; the chip sales rate increased from 60% to 65%, a change of 5% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The polyester chain is in a volatile pattern due to the game between cost drag and terminal resilience in production starts [2] - The future trend of the polyester industry chain is weakening, with PTA and PX prices likely to decline further and downstream polyester product prices under pressure [7] - PX may see a slight increase, while PTA may fluctuate or decline slightly [51] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On November 24, the PX main contract closed at 6,772.0 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -229.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,680.0 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton [3] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.51 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 57.98 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 693.8 million meters [3] - On the supply side, potential device maintenance or low operating rates may tighten supply. PTA's supply depends on PX input, and rising PX costs may strengthen PTA's cost support, with future prices likely to fluctuate upward [4] - On the demand side, the significantly lower trading volume in the Light Textile City indicates weak terminal textile consumption, which may pressure the polyester operating rate and weaken PTA procurement willingness. The impact on PX demand is limited due to its low consumption elasticity [5] - On the inventory side, the risk of PTA inventory accumulation increases the downward price space. A decline in the polyester operating rate may slow down PTA shipments and increase factory inventory. Once PTA inventory rises, supply - demand imbalance will amplify selling pressure [6] Polyester - On November 24, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,242.0 yuan/ton, up 1.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,300.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 58.0 yuan/ton [7] - The continuous decline in the trading volume of the China Light Textile City reflects weak downstream demand. The overall inventory accumulation signal is emerging, especially the weak demand for filament yarns [7] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.33%, the trading volume decreased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.16% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.30%, the trading volume decreased by 18.12%, and the open interest decreased by 0.17% [8] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 1.30%, the trading volume decreased by 8.95%, and the open interest decreased by 3.00% [8] - Other products: Most product prices remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [8][9] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts on November 24 and 21, and the decision - making on interest rate cuts became more complex due to factors such as the cancellation of the October CPI report and employment data [10][11] - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the Geneva talks between the US and Ukraine were reported to have "made progress," and the peace process was considered to be advancing [10] Supply - Demand - Demand - On November 24, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 642.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.62%, with 526.0 million meters of filament fabric trading volume and 115.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, etc. [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It includes supply, demand, valuation, and inventory information, as well as trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - Domestic PX drives up the overseas market, and the PXN spread has strengthened significantly. The gasoline market has ended the squeeze and started to build inventories. The disproportionation unit is in a loss, and the PX - MX spread remains high [15][22][23] Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with an operating rate of 89.5% (+2.7%) this week. The Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%). Some Korean and Japanese devices have maintenance or production reduction plans [42][43] Demand - The PTA operating rate has continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%), reducing the demand for PX [3][4] Inventory - In October, the monthly inventory of PX accumulated by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [65] Strategy - The upside space is limited. For cross - varieties, short PXN and long MEG short PX [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - The inventory has continued to accumulate, but the valuation and monthly spread have risen following PX. The processing fee has remained at a low level for a long time [71][81] Supply - The PTA operating rate has declined to 72% (-3.7%). Some devices have stopped or extended the maintenance time, and the weekly output is about 1.41 million tons [4][83] Demand - The polyester device operating rate is 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Since November, the new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [4][5] Inventory - The inventory has slightly accumulated and shifted to the delivery warehouse [106] Strategy - Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price trend is weak. The relative valuation has continued to decline, and the device profit is in a loss [120][124][126] Supply - The operating rate has dropped to 70.67% (-1.9%). Multiple coal - chemical devices have short - stopped, and some devices have maintenance plans in the future. The domestic weekly supply is about 405,000 tons [5][129] Demand - The polyester device operating rate remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for MEG of 520,000 tons. The new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [5] Inventory - The supply - demand balance sheet has improved, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has decreased [139] Strategy - Operate in the range of 3800 - 4000. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PX [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Production - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (+0.8%). In 2025, the polyester production has increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be flat at 5 - 6% [143][150] Export - From January to October, the total polyester export was 12 million tons, +15.2%. The exports of various polyester products have increased to varying degrees [151] Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish, and the inventory has started to rise [152]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA prices rose due to concerns about reduced PX supply and extended maintenance of a 2.2 million - ton PTA plant in East China, with spot basis strengthening and average downstream polyester sales [2]. - PX prices rebounded due to factors like high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices, which limited PX production. PTA supply slightly shrank, polyester开工 remained stable above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were optimistic. The downstream weaving industry performed well after "Golden September and Silver October" [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons. New plant launches pressured ethylene glycol prices, and coal price increases did not strongly support costs. The Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price increased from 458.8 to 464.5 yuan/barrel, a change of 5.70 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Value increased from 1335.9 to 1336.4, a change of 0.58 [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: Decreased from 1.4007 to 1.3959, a change of - 0.0047 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Price increased from 827 to 832, a change of 5 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Increased from 256 to 264, a change of 8 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Increased from 4670 to 4712 yuan/ton, a change of 42.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 4610 to 4640 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Increased from 176.1 to 188.4 yuan/ton, a change of 12.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Increased from 246.1 to 260.4 yuan/ton, a change of 14.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: No change, remaining at (72) [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: No change, remaining at 111,696 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Decreased from 3907 to 3903 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Decreased from (146.49) to (146.68) yuan/ton, a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Decreased from 3952 to 3919 yuan/ton, a change of - 33.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Decreased from 36 to 26, a change of - 10.0 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 87.39% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 74.55% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Decreased from 61.86% to 60.73%, a change of - 1.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained at 88.69% [2]. Product Data - **POY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 70 to 55, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **FDY 150D/96F**: No change [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Decreased from (175) to (190), a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **DTY 150D/48F**: No change [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Decreased from 150 to 135, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Long - Filament Sales Volume**: Increased from 41% to 65%, a change of 24% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Increased from 6350 to 6370 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 185 to 190, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **Staple - Fiber Sales Volume**: Increased from 49% to 73%, a change of 24% [2]. - **Semi - Gloss Chip**: Increased from 5565 to 5570 yuan/ton, a change of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chip Cash Flow**: Decreased from (50) to (60), a change of - 10.0 [2]. - **Chip Sales Volume**: Decreased from 49% to 48%, a change of - 1% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].