Group 1: Polyester Industry Chain Price Trends - The prices of polyester industry chain products have increased as of December 25, with PX at 7318, PTA at 5040, polyester filament at 6450, polyester bottle chips at 5990, and BOPET at 7475 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of +7.88%, +8.39%, +2.79%, +5.27%, and +1.15% respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Insights - PX production is currently at 89% capacity, with no new capacity expected before Q4 2024. PTA has a 74% operating rate with significant pressure from 2025, and no new capacity is anticipated for 2026. Polyester filament is stable with a 90% operating rate and an annual expansion of 3-4% [1] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Forecast - From January to November this year, the apparent demand for polyester filament has only increased by 3.5%. Following a proactive inventory accumulation cycle in 2024, a destocking cycle is expected to begin in early 2025. By 2026, a return to an inventory accumulation cycle is anticipated, with consumption growth expected to return to the 5-10% range [1] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Recent profitability trends show PX recovering from zero to 700 yuan/ton, PTA moving from cash flow losses to break-even, and polyester entering a state of slight losses. By 2026, PX profits are expected to expand further, while PTA is likely to maintain break-even, and polyester is projected to recover to a profit range of 100-200 yuan [1] Group 5: Lithium Battery Materials Sector - The lithium battery materials sector has seen a decline due to rumors of a 15% production cut by CATL in Q1 and speculation about 6F prices dropping below 110,000 yuan. However, ongoing negotiations indicate that pricing discussions are progressing as planned, and CATL's suppliers have stated that a 15% reduction is not feasible without losing market share [2] Group 6: Chemical ETF Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.37%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 5.21% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up by 2.95% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244. PTA maintains high - level production, and the polyester load stays high due to new device launches. The PTA price is boosted by the overall commodity market sentiment [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Overseas MEG device maintenance plans increase, but with coal prices falling and new devices coming into operation, the supply pressure is large. The price lacks effective support, though it may get support from domestic policies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 442.7 yuan/barrel on December 25, 2025, to 441.8 yuan/barrel on December 26, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1934.9 yuan/ton to 2069.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 134.54 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC Ratio**: Rose from 1.6014 to 1.6445, an increase of 0.0431 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Increased from 901 to 919, a rise of 18 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Widened from 361 to 377, an increase of 16 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Rose from 5152 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, a rise of 125 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 281.8 yuan/ton to 278.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Rose from 363.8 yuan/ton to 398.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: Changed from (13) to (65), a decrease of 52 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Decreased from 118,854 to 116,646, a decrease of 2,208 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Rose from 3818 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Changed from (147.79) to (141.98), an increase of 5.8 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13 [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Rose from 0 to 40, an increase of 40 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - **PX Start - up Rate**: Remained at 86.28% [2]. - **PTA Start - up Rate**: Increased from 75.49% to 76.95%, a rise of 1.46% [2]. - **MEG Start - up Rate**: Remained at 61.50% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Increased from 88.65% to 88.94%, a rise of 0.29% [2]. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - **POY150D/48F**: The price increased from 6440 to 6570, a rise of 130 [2]. - **POY Cash - Flow**: Improved from (352) to (333), an increase of 19 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: The price increased from 6730 to 6810, a rise of 80 [2]. - **FDY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (562) to (593), a decrease of 31 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: The price increased from 7755 to 7760, a rise of 5 [2]. - **DTY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (237) to (343), a decrease of 106 [2]. - **Long - Filament Production and Sales**: Increased from 41% to 48%, a rise of 7% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash - Flow**: Improved from 133 to 137, an increase of 4 [2]. - **Staple Fiber Production and Sales**: Increased from 56% to 86%, a rise of 30% [2]. - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price increased from 5720 to 5780, a rise of 60 [2]. - **Chip Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (172) to (223), a decrease of 51 [2]. - **Chip Production and Sales**: Increased from 49% to 55%, a rise of 6% [2]. Device Maintenance A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on the 24th [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 装置检修动态:宁波一套220万吨PTA装置预计24日复车,该装置11月下停车检修。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新材料降负，1月检修，新凤鸣300万吨装置短停。 观点 PX供增需减。但考虑到聚酯持续高开工，PX供应紧平衡的格局暂时无法证伪，PX预计维持高位震荡市。节前注意仓位管理。 估值 PXN300美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差157美金/吨（+10），美国PX-MX价133美金/吨（+50），山东PX- MX价2020（+150）元/吨。 策略 1）单边：7000-7800 2）跨期：5-9正套 3）跨品种：多PX空PF/PR 风险 地缘 本周PTA观点总结：单边高位震荡市 | 供应 | PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新 ...

期货研究报告|聚酯产业链专题 2025-12-26 PX 供应还有多少提升空间——国内篇 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 在对明年上半年供需偏紧的预期下，近期 PX 价格强势上涨，长短流程经济性都得到了 极大的提升，PXN 突破 360 元/吨，创下近五年 12 月的最高记录，也是 2024 年 6 月中 以来的高点，纸货 5 月 PXN 已经达到 380 美元/吨附近。当前 PX 在聚酯产业链中利润 表现最好，随着 PX 的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views PTA - The near - term PTA market is tight. The seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is lower than in previous years. The recent rebound is significant, and there are marginal demand feedbacks. Consider buying on dips [5][48]. - The supply side has multiple device maintenance plans. The demand side shows that the polyester load remains high in the short - term, but downstream orders are weakening [48]. PX - The overall pattern of PX is expected to be good. It is increasing in volume and price. Short - term supply - demand changes are small, and PXN has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to capital changes [6][74]. - The domestic PX operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. There are maintenance and restart plans for some devices [6][74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - The supply of ethylene glycol has marginal improvements, with more overseas maintenance. Polyester has marginal production reduction plans. In December, supply - demand pressure is not large, but seasonal inventory accumulation is expected. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [7][121]. - The supply side has device load adjustments and overseas maintenance. The demand side shows that the polyester load is high, but terminal orders are slightly weakening [121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 79% (- 4%), 62% (- 5%), and 70% (-). Polyester production and sales have increased due to downstream restocking [9]. - As of December 19, the polyester load is around 91.1%. The polyester cash - flow is squeezed, and the average inventory is around 13.5 days. The inventory of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber is 13.3, 25.6, 13.4, and 7.2 days respectively. The polyester load is expected to be 91% in December and 88% in January [13][14][36]. PTA - Device changes: YS Ningbo plans to restart this week. New materials have maintenance plans in January - February. Ineos 110 plans to restart this weekend, while Ineos 125 will reduce its load and may have maintenance later. Sichuan Energy Investment's restart is postponed to early January. YS Dahua, Hainan, and Dushan 1 are still under maintenance. The maintenance volume in January - February 2026 is not low [42]. - Inventory: As of December 19, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has decreased to 210 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons. PTA factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory have slightly decreased [43]. - Balance sheet: The near - term is tight. The maintenance of suppliers in January - February is high, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is not high [48]. PX - Market performance: Recently, PX has been strong. The Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits have improved significantly. The PXN has strengthened to over 350, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed [64][67]. - Device dynamics: The domestic operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical plans maintenance at the beginning of next week, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. In Asia, GS disproportionation is shut down, Taiwan FCFC is operating at 70% capacity, Japan ENEOS restarted a small line last weekend, and Japan Idemitsu's 200,000 - ton device plans to restart at the end of the month [69]. - Balance sheet: The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The price has risen in advance, and the PXN has rebounded to around 350. Pay attention to capital changes [74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Device load: As of December 19, the overall ethylene glycol load is 71.93%, and the coal - based load is 75%. The oil - based process has more maintenance and load - reduction [91]. - Device maintenance: Many domestic and overseas devices have maintenance plans. New devices such as Ningxia Changyi are in the process of increasing production [95][97][110]. - Profit: The profit of ethylene glycol has been compressed. The oil - based process is in a loss, and the loss of the coal - based process has increased [98]. - Import: Overseas device maintenance is high. The arrivals in November - December are not low, but may decrease in January - February [110]. - Inventory: As of December 22, the port inventory in East China is about 71.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons. The polyester factory's raw material inventory days have slightly increased [116]. - Balance sheet: The supply has marginal improvements. The balance pressure in December is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [121].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in PX and PTA futures prices, with PX rising from 6258 yuan/ton to 7272 yuan/ton (16% increase) and PTA from 4378 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton (15% increase) since late October 2025 [1] - The polyester industry is facing a core contradiction due to long-term low production, leading to an expanding PX supply-demand gap expected to continue into 2026 [1] - Polyester apparent demand growth has exceeded expectations, with production reaching 72.87 million tons from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [1] Group 2 - In 2026, the growth rate of polyester production capacity is expected to slow, with an estimated increase of around 4.7% (approximately 4.15 million tons) [2] - The upstream PTA and PX capacity growth is significantly slowing, with PX expected to have zero new production in 2025 and only 3.6 million tons of new capacity in 2026, which will not be operational until the second half of the year [2] - Current PTA social inventory has dropped to around 2.15 million tons, a historical low, and PTA processing fees remain below 200 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3 - December is a traditional off-season for polyester demand, with seasonal weakening of orders in the terminal weaving industry and accelerated inventory accumulation [3] - Rapid price increases in raw materials PX and PTA have led to significant rises in polyester prices, boosting speculative inventory demand in the downstream [3] - There is a potential risk of polyester factories reducing production and lowering load ahead of schedule due to compressed profit margins from rapid price increases [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has reached a new low, with the main contract dropping over 3%, while PTA has surpassed the 5000 mark this week, indicating a divergence in the polyester supply chain dynamics [6]. Supply Side - A 400,000-ton/year MEG facility in South China has recently resumed normal operations after maintenance in early December [6]. - A 200,000-ton/year MEG facility in Taiwan is also in the process of restarting after maintenance in late November [6]. - A new 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip facility by Fuhai Packaging Materials Co., Ltd. has produced high-quality products [6]. - A 2.2 million-ton PTA facility in Ningbo is expected to resume operations on the 24th after being offline for maintenance since November [6]. Demand Side - The market is currently in a seasonal off-peak period, with expectations for the upstream PX and TA supply-demand balance in 2026 appearing favorable [6]. - Polyester inventory is being reduced, and there are promotions on polyester products, alongside major manufacturers planning self-discipline in production cuts, leading to increased polyester sales recently [6]. - However, terminal operating rates are declining, and under pressure, downstream companies may opt for an early holiday before the Spring Festival, limiting demand support for prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA prices rose due to cost support and good downstream polyester filament sales, and the market has factored in the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA next year. Although PTA profit is under pressure, the economic benefits of integrated enterprises have improved significantly. The polyester load remains high, and demand is expected to be additionally supported by the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - The price of ethylene glycol is difficult to get effective support due to the continuous decline of coal prices, and the market supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new plants. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to support downstream weaving and keep the overall demand outlook optimistic. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 429.4 yuan/barrel to 426.6 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 2.8 yuan/barrel; PTA - SC increased from 1627.5 yuan/ton to 1781.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 154.35 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5216 to 1.5748, an increase of 0.0532. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 840 to 866, an increase of 26; PX - naphtha spread rose from 307 to 335, an increase of 28. [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4748 yuan/ton to 4882 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4650 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3767 yuan/ton to 3738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price decreased from 3667 yuan/ton to 3633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load remained unchanged, at 86.48%, 74.77%, 60.43% and 88.41% respectively. [2] 3.3 Product Cash Flow and Sales - Among polyester filaments, the cash flow of POY, FDY and DTY decreased by 89, 119 and 74 respectively, and the sales volume increased by 248% to 294%. [2] - For polyester staple fibers, the cash flow decreased by 24, and the sales volume decreased by 1% to 75%. [2] - For polyester chips, the cash flow decreased by 9, and the sales volume decreased by 28% to 88%. [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The plant stopped for maintenance around November 17. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong [1] - PTA: Cost support is strong [1] - MEG: Ranges in a sideways market [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Single - side price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Consider long PX and short PF/PR positions, and continue positive spread operations for calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, single - side trend is upward. Consider long PTA and short PF/PR, and hold positive spreads [6]. - MEG: Single - side is in a sideways market, and the medium - term trend is still weak [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha price rebounded slightly at the end of the session. PX price rose significantly today. A 390,000 - ton PX plant in North China plans to shut down next week [3]. - PTA: No specific market dynamics information provided. - MEG: No new device changes in 2025. Pay attention to the further load - reduction progress of Yangmei Shouyang, with limited actual impact [3]. - Polyester: Mainstream large factories plan to cut production to maintain prices. A new 200 - ton/day cotton - type staple fiber production line started. Sales of direct - spun staple fiber and polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang improved [5]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, while MEG and SC prices fell. The price changes and spreads of different contracts are detailed in the table [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA spot prices rose, MEG and naphtha prices fell, and Brent crude oil price rose slightly [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: PX - naphtha spread and PTA processing fee increased, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5]