聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：成本坍塌，趋势偏弱 | | 本周PX国产装置开工率87.4%（+0.8%），下周乌石化100万吨装置检修（中泰PTA检修），开工率下降。亚洲整体负荷开工率在79.9% （+1.9%）。韩华113万吨装置重启；10月FCFC72万吨、沙特Satorp70万吨计划检修。 | | --- | --- | | | 市场关注由于日照港受到制裁之后管道沿线炼厂的开工情况。目前来看，部分炼厂因原料供应整体负荷下降，但PX开工影响有限。 | | 需求 | 新凤鸣PTA新装置由于低加工费投产时间推迟。印度PTA新装置GAIL逐步计划投产。PX供需略显偏紧。本周PTA开工率74.4%（-2.4%）逸盛 新材料降负，恒力220万吨停车。 | | | 单边趋势偏弱，多PXN。当前美国辛烷值大幅上涨，带动韩国MX估值 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices are running weakly, and the PX market has few transactions. Polyester downstream procurement stagnated during the holiday. The Asian naphtha crack spread was stable during the holiday, the spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to $132, continuing to support PX short - process profits. The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widened to $185, but there was no news of shipments from South Korea to the US. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has declined. The domestic PTA basis has quickly declined, and demand has not significantly increased. The polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA has shown weakness. Bottle chips and staple fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4500, a decrease of 35; MEG inner - market price decreased from 4275 to 4224, a decrease of 51; PTA closing price decreased from 4594 to 4584, a decrease of 10; MEG closing price decreased from 4207 to 4158, a decrease of 49 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6465 to 6460, a decrease of 5; short - fiber basis increased from 129 to 137, an increase of 8; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 22 to 0, a decrease of 22 [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market prices declined. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips all decreased by 46, and the outer - market water bottle chips decreased from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5 [2] Cash Flows and Processing Fees - Polyester staple - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 502 to 503, an increase of 1.01; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3835 to 3840, an increase of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1566 to 1586, an increase of 20.32; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 510 to 537, an increase of 27.01 [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased slightly from 94.40% to 93.90%; polyester staple - fiber sales ratio increased from 57.00% to 67.00%, an increase of 10.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased slightly from 51.50% to 51.00% [3] Other Prices - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation - large - chemical spread decreased from 940 to 935, a decrease of 5; T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350; cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14500, a decrease of 45; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7020 to 7000, a decrease of 20; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7350 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse calendar spread for 1 - 5 months [1] 2. Core Views - PX: After the holiday, the polyester industry chain's production and sales remained sluggish. Due to the continuous high - temperature affected by the subtropical high in the south, the start - up time of autumn and winter orders was later than usual. The inventory of polyester filament accumulated again after the holiday, and the industry chain was in a negative feedback pattern. With the overnight decline in oil prices, PX valuation is weak [8]. - PTA: After the holiday, the maintenance of Hengli's 1 unit was implemented, but the supply in the East China region was still in excess. There were still pressures on domestic and export demand for textiles and clothing, and the market was waiting for the repair of autumn and winter orders [8]. - MEG: After the holiday, the operation of coal - based ethylene glycol plants resumed. Regarding oil - based plants, Yulong Petrochemical had a short - stop, and the subsequent resumption time should be monitored. During the National Day holiday, the port arrivals were high, and the inventory accumulated by about 80 thousand tons after the holiday. Supply pressure will gradually emerge, and the short - term trend remains weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: A 1.13 - million - ton PX unit in South Korea and a 0.55 - million - ton PX unit in Malaysia restarted around early October. A 0.26 - million - ton PX unit in a Japanese factory was shut down for maintenance as planned in early October, expected to last until the end of November [1]. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the Northeast started planned maintenance today. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA unit in the East China region reduced its load to 50 - 60% around October 7. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 74.4%. According to the calculation of PTA unit daily output / (domestic PTA production capacity / 365), the current PTA operating rate is around 80.2% [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was about 507 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 98 thousand tons. From October 9 to October 12, the planned arrivals at the main ports totaled about 80 thousand tons. As of October 9, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.08% (a month - on - month increase of 2.00%) [6]. Polyester Production and Sales - Polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang: Today's production and sales were highly differentiated. As of around 3:30 pm, the average production and sales were estimated at about 50%. During the National Day - Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the overall production and sales were light, with an eight - day average of about 30% [7]. - Direct - spun polyester staple fiber: As of around 3:00 pm, the average production and sales were 67% [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures decreased by - 0.12%, - 0.22%, - 1.16%, 0.25%, and - 1.81% respectively [1]. - Spot: The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton, 45 yuan/ton, and 61 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars/ton, the PTA processing fee decreased by 4.44 yuan/ton, and the short - fiber processing fee increased by 38.73 yuan/ton [1]

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/9 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 492.6 | 479.7 | -12.90 | 成交情况: PTA:原油行情下跌,对PTA成本支撑减弱。节后220万 | | | | | | | 吨PTA装置计划提前检修,但对市场提振效果有限, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1072. 2 | 1108. 0 | 35. 75 | PTA现货充足。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2995 | 1. 3178 | 0. 0183 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 817 | 804 | -13 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 209 | 219 | 10 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core View of the Report - Near the holiday, the polyester industry chain is oscillating. The cost - end oil price has rebounded, and geopolitical factors need to be continuously monitored. The supply - demand situation of PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken, and the support at the bottom has weakened. The near - end fundamentals of TA have improved, but there is still a large inventory accumulation pressure in December. The demand for polyester has improved marginally, but the high - level increase in polyester load is limited. The short - term supply - demand situation of PF is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee of PR is expected to oscillate in a range [1][2][4] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Relevant charts include TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relevant charts cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant charts involve toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Relevant charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant charts present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Relevant charts cover the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the operating rates of textile, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] Detailed PF Data - Relevant charts include the load of polyester staple fiber, inventory days, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [73][74][84] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Relevant charts involve the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [94][96][103]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Chain Monthly Report for September [3][14][24] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [12][21][34] Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint provided in the given content. Summary by Section 1. PX (Paraxylene) - **Price - related Charts**: Include PX产业链价格 (PX industrial chain price), PX浮动价 (PX floating price), PX月差 (PX monthly spread), PX基差 (PX basis), PX价格结构 (PX price structure), PX - BLENT价差 (PX - BLEND spread), 亚洲PXN价差 (Asian PXN spread), 韩国PX - MX价差 (Korean PX - MX spread) [11][17][19][21] - **Supply - related Charts**: PX月均开工率 (PX monthly average operating rate), PX进口量 (PX import volume), PX社会库存 (PX social inventory), PX平衡表 (PX balance sheet) [31][34][38] 2. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Price - related Charts**: PTA现货价格 (PTA spot price), PTA01合约现货基差 (PTA01 contract spot basis), PTA15月差 (PTA15 monthly spread), PTA - PX价差 (PTA - PX spread) [42] - **Supply - demand Charts**: PTA月均开工率 (PTA monthly average operating rate), PTA社会库存 (PTA social inventory), PTA出口量 (PTA export volume), PTA码头库存 (PTA terminal inventory), PTA平衡表 (PTA balance sheet) [43][45][49][50] - **PTA Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on PTA产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 开工率 (operating rate), 进口量 (import volume), 出口量 (export volume), 净进口 (net import), 总供应 (total supply), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), PTA理论消费量 (theoretical PTA consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), PTA总需求量 (total PTA demand), 库存增减 (inventory change) are provided [51] 3. MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - **Price - related Charts**: MEG华东现货价格 (MEG East China spot price), MEG01合约现货基差 (MEG01 contract spot basis), MEG15月差 (MEG15 monthly spread), MEG乙烯单体制利润 (MEG ethylene monomer production profit), MEG合成气制利润 (MEG syngas production profit) [56] - **Supply - demand Charts**: MEG中国装置月均开工 (MEG monthly average operating rate of Chinese plants), MEG进口量 (MEG import volume), MEG主港库存 (MEG main port inventory), MEG平衡表 (MEG balance sheet) [56][61][62] - **MEG Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on MEG产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 进口量 (import volume), 净进口 (net import), 表需 (apparent demand), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), 折合MEG消费量 (equivalent MEG consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), MEG库存变化 (MEG inventory change) are provided [62] 4. Polyester Products - **General Polyester**: Polyester月均开工率 (polyester monthly average operating rate), 聚酯加权利润 (weighted polyester profit) [67] - **Filament**: 长丝开工率 (filament operating rate), 长丝平均利润 (average filament profit), 长丝库存天数 (filament inventory days) [65][71] - **Staple Fiber**: 短纤工厂开工率 (staple fiber factory operating rate), 短纤工厂利润 (staple fiber factory profit), 短纤库存天数 (staple fiber inventory days) [68][71] - **Pure Polyester Yarn**: 纯涤纱开工 (pure polyester yarn operating rate), 纯涤纱成品库存 (pure polyester yarn finished product inventory) [72] - **Bottle Chip**: 瓶片开工率 (bottle chip operating rate), 瓶片现货加工费 (bottle chip spot processing fee) [76][81] 5. Downstream Industries - **Weaving and Dyeing**: 江浙织机开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate), 江浙加弹开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate), 江浙印染开机率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operating rate) [77][81][82] 6. Raw Material Inventory - **PTA Raw Material Inventory**: 聚酯工厂PTA原料库存 (PTA raw material inventory in polyester factories) [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it gives a neutral rating with a mid - term cautious and bearish outlook for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly during the peak season. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating, and the PX supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the demand side of the polyester industry has limited improvement and high inventory [1][2][4]. - The demand for PF has slightly improved, and short - term supply and demand conditions are better than the raw material side, but its upward momentum is weak. The processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 79 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 5 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 159 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 304 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main - contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main - contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 212 dollars/ton (with a环比 change of - 6.88 dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][18][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas start - up will further increase in the short term. China's PTA load is rising from a low level. Relevant figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [1][29][36]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [2][37][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a环比 change of - 0.2%), and it is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. Relevant figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [2][49][65]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 230 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 21 yuan/ton), and the load is slightly increasing. Relevant figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [3][76][89]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 497 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 23 yuan/ton). Relevant figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [3][91][104]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and cautiously bearish in the medium term [4]. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5]. - Cross - period: None [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks fundamental support and is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply - demand balance sheet may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but low processing fees, increased maintenance plans, and cost - side support will keep it in this pattern [1][6]. - MEG is in a weak state and is expected to run weakly in the short term. Although there is a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low inventory at the main port provides obvious support below [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: Due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, international crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the postponement of the commissioning time of new downstream PTA plants led to a significant decline in PX prices at the end of the session. As of September 19, the closing price of Asian PX was $815.67 per ton CFR China, down $15.66 per ton from September 12 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The restart of two 160 - million - ton PX units of Fujian Fuhai Chuang and the maintenance of a 70 - million - ton unit of Dalian Fujia led to a narrow increase in the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX to 85.51%, a 0.88% increase from the previous week [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 19, the PX - naphtha price spread was $218.9 per ton, down $13.91 per ton from September 12. Due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, the PX - naphtha price spread continued to decline [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, PTA device operation was stable, but the restart of Fuhai Chuang was postponed. Terminal orders were average during the traditional peak season, and demand was tepid. With low processing fees, some enterprises added maintenance plans, and PTA mainly oscillated at a low level. As of September 19, the spot price of PTA was 4,555 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [24]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased to 77.29%, a 2.34% increase from the previous week. In September, with the planned restart of some units, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [28][31]. - **Processing Fees**: With the upcoming restart of large - scale East China plants, increased domestic supply, and tepid terminal performance during the traditional peak season, PTA processing fees have been weakening. In the short term, although there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low valuation limits the further downward space, and processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In September, with the restart of maintenance units and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Despite the decline in the main port inventory, the market was generally worried about supply - side pressure. Although there were small rebounds during the week, the confidence to chase the rise was insufficient, and the MEG market remained weak at the weekend. As of September 19, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,352 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,470 yuan per ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of MEG was 67.04%, a 0.48% increase from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 0.19%, and that of coal - based MEG increased by 1.56%. In September, with the restart of some domestic units and the end of the maintenance season, the overall MEG output is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the total expected arrival volume of MEG in East China was 88,100 tons. As of September 18, the total MEG inventory in the main East China ports was 383,700 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from September 15 and an increase of 20,500 tons from September 11 [47][49]. - **Profit**: Due to the expected increase in supply and the rise in raw material prices, the profits of all MEG production processes declined this week. As of September 19, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $115.99 per ton, down $13.59 per ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based MEG was - 141.07 yuan per ton, down 87.68 yuan per ton from the previous week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Production**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.89%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. With the restart of some previously maintained units and the planned commissioning of new units next week, domestic polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, polyester production and sales were relatively good, and new plants were commissioned, resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the polyester operating rate. In September, with the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and maintained units, and the expected commissioning of multiple new plants, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [59]. - **Capacity Utilization of Sub - Products**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.54%, a 0.11% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.01%, a 0.19% increase from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 83.31%, a 1.32% increase from the previous week [62]. - **Inventory**: Due to cautious downstream procurement and weak production and sales, factory finished - product inventories increased slightly this week [63]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decrease in polymerization costs, polyester manufacturers focused on sales, and the average weekly price decreased, compressing cash flow. However, the cash flow of DTY was repaired [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 18, the operating load of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.19%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days, a decrease of 0.13 days from the previous week. The current orders are mainly for autumn and winter cold - proof fabrics, and the industry demand has not improved substantially [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, due to weak terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, PX prices declined significantly at the end of the session [73]. - **Supply Side**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased, and the total capacity utilization rate of MEG also increased slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based units [73]. - **Demand Side**: The overall supply of polyester fluctuated slightly this week, and the operating load and order days of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [73]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply is expected to increase, and the near - term supply - demand remains tight, while the long - term inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The MEG inventory at the main East China ports decreased compared with September 15 but increased compared with September 11 [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA prices declined and the basis weakened due to weak crude oil market, concerns about PX unit maintenance delays, and sufficient spot supply. Meanwhile, the decline in prices was beneficial for downstream cost reduction. The domestic PTA production increased as PTA units gradually resumed operation, leading to a rapid decline in the PTA basis and market pressure. The increase in OPEC+ oil production caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. With weaker sales, rising inventories, and the approaching off - season, PTA showed weakness [2]. - The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot market price followed the low - level operation with a slight increase in the basis. The ethylene glycol inventory at East China ports continued to decline, and the port was expected to continue destocking. However, domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices put continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price [2]. - The overall polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 491.8 yuan/barrel on September 18, 2025, to 487.0 yuan/barrel on September 19, 2025, a decrease of 4.80 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1092.0 yuan/ton to 1064.9 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3056 to 1.3009. The PTA主力期价 dropped from 4666 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell from 4630 yuan/ton to 4555 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 151.8 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 227.8 yuan/ton to 222.2 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 77 to 82 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 827 to 816, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 218 to 219 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 dropped from 4268 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 121.50 yuan/ton to - 120.69 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4362 to 4351, and the basis decreased from 85 to 80 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 78.25%, the MEG start - up rate increased from 61.32% to 62.20%, and the polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F decreased by 25, 65, and 45 respectively. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 43, 3, and 23 respectively. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 50, the cash flow increased by 18, and the sales rate decreased from 61% to 51% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 30, the cash flow increased by 38, and the sales rate decreased from 69% to 52% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA unit in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2].