对于下半年的大类资产配置，我们需要从股市、债市、黄金等主要投资领域进行全面分析，并从宏观经 济、政策走势以及市场情绪等多维度来做出理性决策。 2025年下半年，股市将迎来一轮较为复杂的行情。从全球视角来看，尽管经济增速放缓，但科技、绿色 能源、新兴产业等领域依然具备较强的增长动力。因此，投资者可以通过精选个股和板块来实现资产增 值。 2025年上半年，全球经济面临了多重挑战，通胀压力、利率政策的持续调整以及地缘政治的不确定性， 使得投资者的信心受到一定冲击。随着全球各大央行逐渐转向宽松政策，加之部分国家经济增长有所回 升，未来的市场环境仍然充满潜力。 在美国股市方面，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，市场或将进入震荡整理阶段。此时，投资者应关注科 技、医疗、人工智能等领域的龙头公司，这些行业的高成长性和强劲的盈利能力将为股东带来持续的回 报。尤其是美国科技股，一直以来都是全球投资者关注的重点，虽然部分高估值个股可能面临短期调 整，但长期而言，科技创新将持续驱动这些公司的业绩增长。 与此中国股市在2025年下半年或将迎来反弹的机会。中国经济在经历了疫情后的低迷期后，政策逐渐宽 松，消费、制造业等行业逐步回暖，带动市场 ...

日前，中国人民银行和香港金融管理局在债券通有限公司举办的"债券通周年论坛2025"上公布了三项对 外开放优化措施。其中之一是完善债券通"南向通"运行机制，支持更多境内投资者走出去投资离岸债券 市场，近期拟扩大境内投资者范围至券商、基金、保险、理财等四类非银机构。 债券通"南向通"于2021年9月24日上线，通过加强两地债券市场基础服务机构合作，为内地机构投资者 投资香港及全球债券市场提供便捷通道。目前，两类投资者可以通过债券通"南向通"开展境外债券投 资：一是中国人民银行2020年度公开市场业务一级交易商中的41家银行类金融机构(不含非银行类金融 机构与农村金融机构)；二是合格境内机构投资者(QDII)和人民币合格境内机构投资者(RQDII)。 对于债券通"南向通"投资者范围扩大至券商、基金、保险、理财等非银机构，景顺董事总经理、亚太区 固定收益主管黄嘉诚在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，此举为非银机构拓宽了全球资产配置渠道， 有助于构建跨市场、跨币种的多元化投资组合，提升资产配置灵活性和收益潜力。多币种、多市场的配 置有助于非银行金融机构降低单一市场利率波动对投资组合的影响，增强抗风险能力。同时，这也将进 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·金融产品 金融产品行业深度报告 低利率时代 REITs 的配置价值：制度、市场 与展望 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ REITs 发展回顾：政策筑基下的市场扩容与结构演进 ◼ REITs 未来展望：低利率时代，在政策支持与结构优化中寻找配置价值 2025 年 07 月 09 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 48% 56% 64% 2024/7/9 2024/11/7 2025/3/8 2025/7/7 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《广发恒生港股通科技主题 ETF （159262.SZ）：估值修复潜力可观， 政策助力科技腾飞》 2025-07-06 《继续看好保险股估值修复；期待非 银中报较好表现》 2025-07-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 30 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ REITs 基础概 ...

2025 年上半年，全球通胀率同比攀升至 3.5%，创三年新高，而黄金价格同期上涨 25%，两者的正向关联性再次引发市场关注。这种现象并非偶 然 —— 和讯网分析指出，当货币购买力因通胀缩水时，黄金的稀缺性与稳定性使其成为天然的 "货币锚"，历史数据显示，在高通胀周期中，黄 金年化回报率可达 18%，显著跑赢传统金融资产。然而，这一轮黄金行情已超越单纯的通胀对冲属性，正演变为全球财政、货币及地缘风险的综 合对冲工具。 一、通胀与黄金关系的底层逻辑重构 当前黄金市场呈现出三大新特征：一是定价逻辑的重塑，尽管美联储 6 月点阵图显示内部对降息分歧扩大，但 10 年期美债实际收益率仍维持在 1.2%，而黄金价格却突破 3200 美元关口，这表明地缘政治溢价和美元信用风险（美元指数较 2024 年峰值下跌 9.2%）正在重构定价模型。二是供 需结构的深层变化，2025 年一季度全球金矿产量仅增长 0.5%，但黄金 ETF 流入量达 226 吨，投资需求占比从 2024 年的 18% 跃升至 34%，推动 黄金从商品属性向金融属性加速转变。三是央行购金的常态化，全球央行连续 14 个季度增持黄金，2025 年上半年累计 ...

以下文章来源于阿尔法工场DeepFund ，作者基哥 阿尔法工场DeepFund . 近年来，A股市场波动加剧，银行理财打破刚兑，存款利率持续下行，传统低风险投资工具的吸引 力逐渐减弱。与此同时，权益市场的高波动性也让部分风险偏好较低的投资者望而却步。 专注基金行业事件、产品和人物故事，探究背后的深层逻辑。 作者 | 基哥 来源 | 阿尔法工场DeepFund 导语 ： "固收+"不是简单的"债打底、股增厚"，而是基于对资产间相关性及性价比的动态判 断，以实现风险与收益平衡的更优解。 种种迹象表明，"固收+"基金正受到越来越多投资者的喜爱。 来自华西证券的研报数据显示，截至今年一季度末，"固收+"基金总规模上升至13807.34亿元，规模 环比增加1560.29亿元，在广义债基中的占比环比上升2个百分点，这是"固收+"基金规模占比自 2022年一季度以来首次显著回升。 这一趋势，在互联网平台上体现得尤为明显。 据某平台统计数据显示，以债券为底仓、含少部分权益资产的"固收+"基金热度持续攀升，今年前4 个月该类基金的用户规模同比增幅达88%。 "固收+"基金受到热捧的背后，与投资者在震荡市中对稳健收益的强烈需求 ...

（截图来源：东方财富网） 如果说真是一场牛市，有几点要注意： 1.牛市一定要远离赚钱的朋友，因为他们会让你失心疯的，你是很容易追高的！ 以下文章来源于巴蜀养基场 ，作者九思基哥 巴蜀养基场 . 做好的理财经理教育，成为公募基金财富管理领域赋能的领先品牌，目前已服务280+金融机构和 100,000+理财经理。提供降费降佣背景下的行业各项解决方案（咨询、辅导、培训、基金产品测评、营 销策划等服务）基哥 18608036474（V信同号） "历史给我们最大的教训就是人类不会从历史中汲取任何教训。" ——萧伯纳 最近的确感觉到市场比较躁动。大盘盘中突破3500点了。 2.要记住"牛市是收获的季节，不是播种的时刻"！ 3.还有一点要记住：大部分散户都是在牛市亏钱的！ 好了，说了这么多，不是让大家不要投资，而是要抱着慎之又慎的态度去配置基金，千万不要让自 己迷失在狂躁的氛围之中，必须"三分醉七分醒"。 投资前一定要想清楚：你的投资目标 投资都是为了赚钱，但是赚钱这个目标太抽象，不好界定。 往往为了赚钱会让我们过度自信或者过度保守。 现在想想，我本来是因为有点闲钱，想通过买基金赚点小钱，是想通过钱生钱。 这里有个暗含潜台 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a means for ordinary investors to navigate the uncertainties of the financial market, likening it to Noah's Ark for survival and growth [2][3] - The article discusses the theoretical foundation of asset allocation, highlighting Harry Markowitz's mean-variance model and its significance in reducing risk through the scientific combination of low-correlated assets [4] - It presents empirical evidence showing that 91% of mutual fund performance differences from 1970 to 2020 were due to asset allocation strategies rather than stock selection or market timing [4] Group 2 - The practical value of asset allocation is illustrated through examples of risk diversification, such as the "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds during market downturns, which can significantly reduce portfolio drawdowns [5] - Behavioral finance insights are shared, indicating that proper asset allocation can mitigate emotional responses during market volatility, reducing the psychological impact of asset fluctuations [5] - The article provides a performance comparison of a diversified asset allocation strategy from 2010 to 2020, showing an annualized return of 7.2% with a maximum drawdown of only 9.8% [5] Group 3 - The article outlines strategic tools for asset allocation, including the "Four Seasons" method that adjusts asset allocation based on economic cycles [6] - It discusses lifecycle-based asset allocation, recommending different asset mixes for various age groups to align risk exposure with life stages [7] - The use of various financial instruments, such as ETFs, convertible bonds, and REITs, is suggested to enhance portfolio diversification and returns [8] Group 4 - Historical lessons are drawn from past financial crises, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset allocation strategies in mitigating losses compared to concentrated positions [9][10] - The article highlights the performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy during periods of economic stress, showcasing its ability to generate positive returns while traditional equities suffered losses [10] Group 5 - The future of asset allocation is discussed in the context of technological advancements, including big data, AI optimization, and blockchain, which are transforming the investment landscape [11] - The article concludes with a philosophy of viewing asset allocation as a means to achieve financial security and stability rather than speculative gains, emphasizing disciplined investment practices [12][13] Group 6 - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a risk management framework that balances stocks, bonds, and commodities to create a defensive investment strategy [26][27] - The method emphasizes dynamic rebalancing to maintain target asset allocations and enhance returns through systematic adjustments based on market conditions [28] - The article discusses the potential for generating excess returns through strategic asset allocation, including timing and sector rotation based on market conditions [30] Group 7 - A proposed asset allocation strategy is presented, incorporating global assets, bonds, A-shares, and alternative investments to create a robust defensive structure [34][36] - The strategy aims to mitigate geopolitical risks through diversified global exposure and balance between interest rate and credit risk [37] - The allocation includes a focus on high-dividend assets to provide stability during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of income-generating investments [38] Group 8 - The article emphasizes the importance of dynamic balancing and threshold management in maintaining optimal asset allocations, ensuring that portfolios remain aligned with market conditions [44] - It discusses the need for liquidity management to address unexpected redemption demands, highlighting the role of cash and cash-equivalent assets [53] - The overall philosophy of the proposed asset allocation strategy is to build a "anti-fragile" investment system capable of withstanding market volatility while capturing structural opportunities [54][55]

日前，汇丰集团最新发布的一项全球个人投资者调查显示，中国内地受访投资者已减持现金，增加投资的 意愿逐步增强。 据了解，汇丰本次调查面向全球可投资资产为10万—200万美元的个人投资者。本次调查由汇丰集团委托益普 索于2025年3月进行，覆盖了全球12个国家和地区近10800位个人投资者，旨在了解他们的投资组合、行为和偏 好。 全球化多元资产配置意愿较强 汇丰此项调查结果还显示，内地投资者的全球化多元资产配置意愿较强，超过半数受访者表示有意向在未来一 年配置境外资产。 此外，黄金仍是分散风险的重要资产。调查显示，过去一年里，黄金的占比在内地受访者的资产配置中从7% 跃升到15%，在各资产类别中增幅最大；并且有四分之三的受访者未来12个月计划持有黄金。 他们正通过更广泛的资产类别构建多样化的投资组合，尤其是寻求另类投资以平衡组合风险的兴趣日渐浓厚。 此外，年轻一代的内地受访者表示，更愿意增持另类资产以进一步分散投资。 年轻一代更愿配置另类资产 汇丰最新调查发现，过去一年，内地受访者的现金配置比例从31%下降到25%，在相对年轻的投资者中降幅更 为明显，例如Z世代（21—28岁）现金配置占比从37%下降到22%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing significant fluctuations, prompting investors to consider purchasing gold bars as a stable asset amidst market volatility [1] Gold Price Trends - As of July 8, 2025, the investment gold bar prices from various banks range between 783.40 CNY/gram and 790.30 CNY/gram, reflecting an increase of nearly 23% since the beginning of the year [3] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold bar prices are influenced by multiple factors beyond international gold prices, including exchange rate fluctuations, bank fee structures, brand premiums, and market supply-demand dynamics. The ongoing high international gold prices are driven by strong global market risk aversion, central banks increasing gold reserves, and a tight gold supply-demand structure [4] Bank Price Comparisons - Currently, Citic Bank offers the lowest investment gold bar price at 783.40 CNY/gram, while Agricultural Bank's price is at 790.30 CNY/gram. Purchasing 500 grams from Citic Bank could save up to 3,500 CNY compared to Agricultural Bank. Other banks like Bank of Communications and Minsheng Bank have prices above 789 CNY/gram, while Ping An Bank and China Construction Bank are around 787-788 CNY/gram [5] Investment Timing and Strategy - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile with a low probability of significant declines. The demand for gold remains strong globally, and geopolitical tensions enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, the rate of price increase may slow down, suggesting that investors should consider gradual purchases rather than bulk buying. Long-term, gold remains a stable option for asset allocation and inflation hedging [6] Key Considerations Before Purchase - Investors should distinguish between investment gold bars and decorative gold bars, as the latter has higher premiums and lower repurchase value. Understanding the fee structure of banks, including whether fees are fixed or variable, is crucial. Additionally, it is important to clarify repurchase policies and ensure purchases are made through reputable bank channels to avoid issues with gold quality and repurchase difficulties [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming a new anchor point for global markets, despite high valuations of US tech stocks compared to historical levels, due to strong profitability of related companies [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Environment and Investment Strategy - The current global environment is complex, with a lack of macroeconomic anchors affecting investment strategies. Traditional strategic asset allocation is challenged by the absence of long-term anchors [4][5]. - Investors should allocate more risk budget to tactical asset allocation (6-12 months) rather than strategic asset allocation (over 3 years) in the current environment [5]. - AI is identified as a significant driving force for long-term returns, surpassing macroeconomic predictions, and is currently in its first phase of development [6]. Group 2: AI and Investment Opportunities - AI infrastructure investment prospects are promising, driven by strong structural forces that will take years to fully materialize. There is confidence in infrastructure investments, particularly in renewable energy [8]. - The "Tech Seven" companies in the US have shown significant profitability growth, although their stock prices have only slightly increased this year. This disconnect between market performance and profitability presents tactical investment opportunities [6][9]. Group 3: US Tech Stocks Valuation - The technology sector remains the strongest performer in the US stock market, achieving approximately 20% returns in Q1, with a year-on-year growth of 18-19%, significantly exceeding the market average of 14% [9]. - Despite slightly high valuations compared to long-term averages, traditional mean reversion principles may not apply in the new paradigm, making valuation just one of several considerations [9][10]. Group 4: Global Investment Landscape - In the next 6-12 months, a neutral stance is taken on Chinese stocks, with a preference for sectors benefiting from structural forces or policy support, particularly technology and healthcare [12]. - European tech companies are seen as having favorable conditions, especially in a local tech preference environment, while European financial stocks offer attractive dividend yields [12]. Group 5: US Treasury Market and Gold Investment - Caution is advised regarding the US Treasury market, as current pricing reflects excessive rate cut expectations, which may not align with ongoing inflation pressures [19]. - Gold is viewed as a sustainable investment, with increasing importance in portfolio diversification. Central banks are playing a larger role in gold allocation as international investors reconsider US Treasury investments [18].