Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of treasury bond futures is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 trillion repurchase, the treasury bond yield has declined. The bond market will continue its short - term volatile pattern, and in the medium - to - long - term, it will maintain a bullish foundation supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress, as well as the necessity of adjusting the duration [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.33 and a growth rate of 0.34%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1790, with a decrease of 0.002 and a decline rate of - 0.03%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.50, with no change; DR007 is 1.52, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of - 0.44%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 [8] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.44 yuan, 106.05 yuan, 108.89 yuan, and 120.73 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.02%, and - 0.02% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.019 yuan, - 0.043 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.083 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - On July 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 450.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.463%, 1.504%, 1.553%, and 1.539% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread trends, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread in different combinations such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][39][40] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, as well as the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It presents the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan through reverse repos on July 18, 2025, following a total of 1,875 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 847 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On July 18, 2025, the PBOC executed a reverse repo operation of 1,875 billion yuan for a 7-day term, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan after accounting for the 847 billion yuan that matured [1]. - For the week, the PBOC conducted a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with 4,257 billion yuan maturing along with 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), leading to a net injection of 12,011 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Maturity and Interest Rates - The reverse repos conducted on July 18 had an interest rate of 1.4% [4]. - The maturity schedule for reverse repos shows various amounts maturing over the preceding days, with significant amounts such as 4,505 billion yuan on July 17 and 5,201 billion yuan on July 16 [4][5].

欢迎进入链接网页右侧下载本周财经数据与事件精美周历壁纸：今日有755亿元7天期逆回购到期，英国 将公布6月CPI月率和零售物价指数月率 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 342.5 billion yuan for 7 days, with the bidding amount and winning amount both at 342.5 billion yuan [1] - The operation interest rate remains unchanged at 1.40%, consistent with previous rates [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming financial events, including the maturity of 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and 69 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - It also mentions the release of important economic data, specifically China's second quarter GDP year-on-year growth rate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated, with the T2509 contract down 0.01%. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates were mixed, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally increased. Overseas, the yields of US, German, and Japanese treasury bonds also rose. The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated more due to the enhanced expectation of real - estate stabilization policies [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures on the previous trading day were mixed. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.01%, and the trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. The open interest of TS2509 decreased by 418, while that of TS2512 increased by 231 [2] - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.47bp to 1.66%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) treasury bonds was 23.61bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds increased. The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 8bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 6bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 0.9bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 507 billion yuan. There will be 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing this week [3] - **Diplomatic Meetings**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur, and both sides agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue [3] - **Policy Regulations**: The Ministry of Finance required state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjusted the assessment methods of some indicators [3] - **Economic Data**: In the second quarter, high - frequency data in multiple domestic fields improved. The offline consumption heat index increased by 25.5% year - on - year, and the online retail sales of major home appliances rose by 28.0% [3] - **International Trade**: US President Trump announced tariffs on products from Mexico, the EU, and Canada, increasing market concerns about inflation and trade tensions [3] - **Japanese Central Bank Action**: The Bank of Japan launched a "morning quote" for spot transactions, lending Japanese government bonds to support market liquidity [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 11, most money - market interest rates in China increased. US Treasury yields rose across the board, driven by Trump's tariff announcements [3] Comments and Strategies - **Market Situation**: The central bank's open - market operations shifted from net withdrawal to net injection last week. Shibor remained low, and the domestic money market was relatively stable. Overseas, tariff announcements increased concerns about inflation and trade tensions. The domestic economy was generally expanding in June, but market demand was weak, and commodity prices were affected by policies [3] - **Market Outlook**: The external environment became more complex, with increased global economic uncertainty. The domestic market had insufficient effective demand, and the central bank maintained a supportive monetary policy. The "anti - involution" market trend continued, increasing the expectation of real - estate stabilization policies and causing greater fluctuations in treasury bond futures prices [3]

中国央行逆回购操作当日实现净投放1197亿元 金十数据7月14日讯，中国央行今日开展2262亿元7天期逆回购操作，因今日有1065亿元7天期逆回购到期，当日实现净投放1197 亿元。看公开市场资金流向，到"数据库-中国央行数据"查看>> MLF 逆回购到期 | MLF到期 | 日期 | 类别(全部) | 量(亿) | 期限 | 利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-14 | 逆回购到期 | 1065 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-14 | 逆回购 | 2262 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-11 | 逆回购到期 | 340 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-11 | 逆回购 | 847 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-10 | 逆回购到期 | 572 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-10 | 逆回购 | 900 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-09 | 逆回购到期 | 985 | 7天 | | | 2025-07-09 | 逆回购 | 755 | 7天 | 1.4 | | 2025-07-08 ...

Group 1 - The National New Office will hold two press conferences on July 14, focusing on the financial statistics for the first half of 2025 and import-export data [1] - The 12th World Chemical Engineering Conference and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference will take place from July 14 to 18, addressing challenges in chemical engineering and future talent education [2] Group 2 - On July 14, a total of 14 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 1.008 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 14.507 billion yuan [3] - Six companies will have over 10 million shares unlocked, with Zhaoxin Co., Beixin Road and Bridge, and Tianyue Advanced leading in unlock volume [3] - The companies with the highest unlock market value include Tianyue Advanced, Xinghui Huan Material, and Huasheng Lithium Battery, with values of 7.487 billion yuan, 2.753 billion yuan, and 1.826 billion yuan respectively [3] Group 3 - Four companies disclosed stock repurchase progress on July 14, with one company reporting ongoing repurchase and three completing their repurchase plans [4] - The highest repurchase amount reported was 20.0616 million yuan by Cambrian [4] - Companies that completed repurchases include Wanhua Chemical, Qingyuan Co., and Mercury Home Textiles, with repurchase amounts of 500 million yuan, 4.2422 million yuan, and 291,900 yuan respectively [4] Group 4 - A total of 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation on July 7 with an interest rate of 1.40% [5] Group 5 - Economic data such as India's June CPI year-on-year and Japan's May production capacity index will be released [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].