Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].

以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点。由于担心原油供应减少，原油价格飙涨、创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。避险情 绪则助推黄金收盘创新高，不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 受以色列对伊朗发动袭击影响，美股开盘低开，随着冲突加剧，标普跌回6000点下方、道指跌近1.8%： 亚太时段，据央视新闻，当地时间13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。以伊冲突爆发在全球市场引发巨震，WTI原油一度暴涨超13%后回落，黄金等避险资 产明显拉升，全球股市集体下挫。 欧股盘中，央视报道，以色列称伊朗方面向以色列发射了100多架无人机。冲突加剧一度推动10年期美债收益率下行至4.31%。不过油价引发的通胀担忧压 制避险买盘，美债收益率随后悉数转涨，2年期和10年期美债收益率均上行超4个基点。 美股早盘，据央视，以色列袭击伊朗导致多国关闭领空，全球多地航空股下跌。标准普尔1500航空公司指数下跌近4%，至5月7日以来的最低水平。美国航 空、美联航跌超5%。由于原油价格飙涨，能源、油气和光伏板块提振上行，其中油气板块涨近2.7%。 周五美股三大股指下跌。标普500指数跌破6000 ...

一觉醒来，全球股市遭重挫，道指跌超700 点， 标普指数跌回6000点下方， 德法意股指 收跌超1%， 英国富时100指数收跌0.39%。本周德国股指跌超 3.2%，丹麦股指累涨4.7% 。 欧元区蓝筹股指数本周累跌约2.6%。 由于担心原油供应减少， 原油价格一度飙涨13%， 收涨超7% 创2022年3月以来最大单日涨幅。 避险情绪则助推 黄金收盘创新高， 涨逾1.4% 。 不过油价引发的通胀担忧短期压制避险买盘，美债收益率先跌后涨。 发生了什么？ 以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗发起报复行动， 密集发射上百枚导弹 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊13日晚间通过伊朗官方媒体发表声明，称伊朗武装部队将采取武力行动，彻底摧毁以色列政权。 伊朗周五晚向以色列发射了"数百 枚"导弹。 此前据新华社报道，13日，哈梅内伊的国际事务高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提发表声明，宣布美国参与了以色列的袭击。 声明中，韦拉亚提强调，此次袭击发生在国际原子能机构理事会通过反伊朗决议后，以及第六轮伊美核谈判即将开始之前，并将此次袭击描述为以色列面 对伊朗日益增长的实力而"绝望和恐惧"的表现。 声明中，韦拉亚提表示，当前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队正在准备回应。 周 ...

Group 1 - The World Gold Council reported a global outflow of 19.1 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $1.83 billion, primarily driven by North American funds responding to changing tariff threats [1] - North American listed funds experienced an outflow of 15.6 tons of gold, worth $1.5 billion, as investor risk appetite improved due to better-than-expected temporary tariff relief between the US and China [1] - The report warns that the current neutral monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may pose headwinds for gold in the summer, although inflation concerns and unsustainable debt levels could mitigate these risks [1] Group 2 - European-listed ETFs saw a modest inflow of 1.6 tons, valued at $224 million, with France leading the inflow as investors sought protection amid economic slowdown and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - In Asia, there was a notable outflow of 4.8 tons from gold ETFs, valued at $489 million, marking the first outflow since November 2024, following a record demand in April [3] - The World Gold Council remains optimistic about gold's potential for appreciation, citing that inflation has not significantly increased due to global trade tensions and rising tariffs [3]

金老虎：川普岂是池中物，一加关税便化龙 沉浸太长时间，内心总是憋着一种气，路走太多了，总是去用经验去判断认定一件事情，高山流水觅知 音，低谷徘徊知真心，你总是做梦去想象怎么做好一段行情，规划每天盈利的计划，但是现实总是盈利 跑的快，亏损扛的时间长，迷茫的思维是循规蹈矩的磨盘，反复去做一件事情不去反思和思考，隔阂还 有差距会成为一个人难以逾越的城墙； 1：通胀担忧：尽管 5 月 21 日路透调查显示美国 2025 年 CPI 预期下调至 3.1%，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。市场对长期通胀压力的担忧促使市场将黄金作为抗通胀资产配置，尤其是在关税政策可能推高 物价的背景下； 黄金思路回顾及下周策略预测 本周金价整体走了连阳攀升的上升形态，从3202-3365；一周的时间也是波动了163美金，想当于每天平 均波动差不多33美金；本周金价这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 1：穆迪下调美国信用评级：5 月 19 日，国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 AAA 下调至 AA1， 这一事件直接冲击市场信心。评级下调反映出对美国债务和赤字问题的担忧，导致市场风险偏好下降， 转而寻求黄金作为避险资产。当日黄金价格因避险 ...

作 者丨万倩倩 见习记者李益文 编 辑丨梁明 刘巷 刘雪莹 金价又突然飙升！ 5月2 0日晚，现货黄金持续走高，突破3 2 8 0美元/盎司，日内涨超1 . 6%。 数据截至20日22:27 上期所沪金主力合约涨超1 . 8%。 | < W | SHEET F | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | AU.SHF | | | | | 770.08 | 昨结 756.24 | 开盘 760.60 | | 万得 | | | | | | 참□ | | +13.84 | +1.83% 总手 14.06万 | 现手 | 2 | | | 最高价 | 771.30 持 仓 22.34万 | 2 | 智 | 7.05万 | | 最低价 | 758.68 增 仓 1.21万 | 内 | ਵਿ | 7.01万 | | 원 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | 車名 | | | 叠加 | | | 盘口 | | | 771.30 | | 1.99% 卖5 770.18 | | TI | | | | | 卖4 770.16 | 5 | | | | 卖3 | 770.14 卖2 770.12 ...

Report on the Precious Metals Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term remains in a high - level oscillation. The resistance levels for London gold are 3300, with strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area; support levels are 3200, 3100, and strong support in the 2950 - 3000 area. For London silver, support is in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance is at 33.3 and 33.7, and if it breaks through, it could reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but the market may remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals generally saw gold decline and silver oscillate. London gold dropped to around 3120, the lowest since April 10. The Sino - US joint communique on May 12 after the Geneva economic and trade high - level talks boosted market risk appetite, pressuring gold. Since late April, global gold ETFs have shown signs of outflow due to factors such as trade and geopolitical conflicts and the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell's statement on re - evaluating the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework and the "new Fed newswire" hinting at an interest - rate framework adjustment may lead to higher long - term interest rates. The slightly lower - than - expected US CPI on Tuesday alleviated inflation concerns and slightly improved the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, which may increase the volatility of the US stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets on Monday and be beneficial for gold. China reduced its US debt holdings by 18.9 billion US dollars to 765.4 billion US dollars in March, becoming the third - largest US debt holder [2] 3.2 Capital and Inventory - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 19.21 tons to 918.73 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 106.06 tons to 13914.9 tons [3] - **Short - term Fund Holdings**: According to the CFTC report as of May 13, the non - commercial net long positions of gold decreased by 1288 to 161209, with long positions increasing by 746 and short positions increasing by 2034. The non - commercial net long positions of silver decreased by 1498 to 47754, with long positions decreasing by 2391 and short positions decreasing by 893 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7.26 tons to 1210.6 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 44.1 tons to 15619 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 47.44 tons to 887 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 5.24 tons to 1574.3 tons [3] 3.3 Upcoming Events - This week's economic data is relatively light, with attention on the US S&P PMI data. There are multiple speeches by Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, Musalem, Bostic, Harker, and Daly. The G7 finance ministers' and central bank governors' meeting from May 12 - 22 should also be monitored [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract rose 1.62% to 751.8 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD rose 1.58% to 746.98 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract fell 1.19% to 3205.3 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver main contract rose 1.16% to 8101 yuan/kilogram, SGX silver TD rose 1.19% to 8062 yuan/kilogram, CME silver main contract fell 1.1% to 32.43 US dollars/ounce [5] - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, CME gold inventory was 1210.5758 tons, SHFE gold position was 211481 lots. SHFE silver inventory was 887.018 tons, CME silver inventory was 15619.051 tons, SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, SHFE silver position was 325306 lots [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Data**: The US dollar index rose 0.19% to 100.983, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 42654.74 points, WTI crude - oil spot rose 1.41% to 62.49 US dollars/barrel, LmeS copper 03 fell 1.67% to 9440 US dollars/ton, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.45% to 4.43%, and the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread fell 8.16% to 0.45% [19]

国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模为32272亿美元，较1月末上升 182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。 中国央行连续第四个月增持黄金，环比增长0.22%。2月外汇储备规模上升。 3月7日周五，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示， 中国2月末黄金储备7361万盎司，1月末黄金储备为7345 万盎司，环比增长了0.22%。 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 国家外汇管理局表示，2025年2月，受主要经济体宏观政策和经济数据、主要央行货币政策预期等因素 影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外 汇储备规模上升。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳定。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 中信建投 此前表示，短期来看，关税明朗之前，黄金期现溢价波动或难完全平稳，跨市套利行或仍对 金价有支撑；中期来看，助推2024年金价的需求因素（央行购金持续强劲，亚洲私人部门黄金投资需求 扩容）在2025年持续性减弱，故2025年金价或从顺风期走向震荡期。 高盛 认为，通胀担忧和财政风险 ...