Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The Fed ended 2025 with continued interest rate cuts, totaling 75 basis points for the year. The policy focus shifted from concerns about inflation rebound to addressing employment downward pressure. The threshold for restarting rate cuts in 2026 is expected to increase, depending more on the pace of employment slowdown and the effectiveness of alleviating commodity inflation related to tariffs. [5][30] - The Fed's restart of RMP is expected to ease the previous liquidity tightening situation. However, internal disagreements among officials have intensified, and with key events such as the Fed chairmanship change and mid - term elections in 2026, the stability of monetary policy has decreased. It is expected that the Fed will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude in the first half of 2026, and changes in the second half may depend on the new chairman's policy orientation and the economic outlook due to fiscal expansion. [5][30] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - On the early morning of December 11, 2025, the Fed cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate to 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, a cumulative 75 basis points, reducing the federal funds target rate from 4.5% to 3.75%. [4][7] - After the interest rate decision was announced, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 4.18%. The three major U.S. stock indexes rose, and the U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 99 points. During the press conference, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield turned downward, the U.S. stock rally continued to expand, the U.S. dollar index returned to around 98.5, COMEX gold first fell then rose, and crude oil prices declined. [8] 2. Interest Rate Statement - Focused on labor market pressure, policy outlook, and Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). The description of the unemployment rate was changed to "the unemployment rate has risen as of September". The statement added the expression "the extent and timing" for future interest rate adjustments, last seen in December 2024, which may imply a higher threshold for future rate cuts. It also added that the committee believes the reserve balance has fallen to an adequate level and will buy short - term U.S. Treasuries as needed to maintain a continuous and adequate supply of reserves. [4][12][16] 3. Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for the next four years were raised, while the unemployment rate forecast for the following year and inflation forecasts for this and next year were slightly lowered. The December dot - plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in September. However, there is a high degree of dispersion among the 19 Fed officials providing forecasts, indicating significant disagreements on the subsequent rate - cut magnitude and increasing policy uncertainty. [18][19] 4. Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) - Core Purpose: To increase the bank system's reserve scale by purchasing short - term Treasuries and other assets, addressing the recent surge in funding prices. Since 2023, the scale of the overnight reverse repurchase tool ONRRP has dropped significantly to near zero, and the bank reserve scale has returned to the 2020 level. The Fed's long - term balance sheet reduction and the U.S. government shutdown have also drained short - term liquidity, with the SOFR remaining persistently higher than the EFFR since September 2025, with the spread reaching a maximum of 36 basis points. [2][20][22] - Bond - buying Operation: Starting from December 12, it plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. The subsequent purchase amount will be adjusted according to the reserve supply outlook and seasonal fluctuations. According to Powell, the neutral monthly purchase level may be between $20 billion and $25 billion. [2][22] - Historical Operation: The last time the Fed carried out RMP was in 2019. In mid - September 2019, the SOFR was nearly 300 basis points higher than the EFFR. The Fed announced the launch of RMP on October 11, 2019, buying Treasury bills at a rate of $60 billion per month to maintain the reserve level at or above that of early September 2019. [2][22] - Comparison with QE: Unlike QE, which lowers long - term interest rates by buying long - term Treasuries and then reduces borrowing costs, RMP aims to replenish the bank system's reserves by buying short - term Treasuries, ensuring an adequate reserve scale without indicating a change in the monetary policy stance. [3][23] 5. Labor Market - Both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and employment data may overestimate the actual situation. From June to September 2025, the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%. Since April, the average monthly non - farm employment increase was about 40,000, but after adjustment, it may actually have decreased by about 20,000 per month. The continuous and gradual cooling of the labor market might be the main reason for the continued rate cuts. [5][24] 6. Inflation - Non - tariff factors have made positive progress, and inflation caused by tariff factors may peak in the first quarter of 2026. It is maintained that the impact of tariffs on inflation is one - time rather than continuous. In September, the U.S. core CPI year - on - year decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0%, and the month - on - month growth rate dropped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Among sub - items, prices of tariff - sensitive goods such as clothing, furniture, and entertainment products increased month - on - month to varying degrees, while the housing rent in core services decreased, indicating a continued decline in service inflation, but the spill - over effect of commodity inflation caused by tariffs still exists. [5][27]

尽管美联储欲盖弥彰，称这不是"QE"，但市场听懂了，水要来了。因为历史证明"不QE"最后都变QE。 隔夜，现货黄金快速收复早盘失地，盘中最低下探4182元附近后强劲反弹，最高触及4238.59美元，创近三个交易日新高，最终收报4228.47美元，单日涨 幅约0.5%。现货白银表现更为亮眼，一举突破并站稳61美元整数关口，最高触及61.92美元，刷新历史纪录，今年以来累计涨幅高达113%。今日欧市盘 中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在4211美元附近徘徊。 降息加扩表！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收涨，截至收盘，道指上涨497.46点，涨幅1.05%；纳指涨0.33%；标普500指数涨0.68%。 消息面上，美联储再度出手，降息25个基点。 北京时间12月11日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从3.75%—4.00%下调至3.50%—3.75%，符合市场预期。 这也是美联储连续第三次会议宣布降息，也是2025年的最后一次降息，全年的累计降息幅度就此达到75个基点。 不只是降息，启动"技术性扩表"。美联储会后也同时宣布，将在本月开始扩大资产负债表，购买400亿美元的短期国债，购买规模预计会在几个月内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while the Fed's tone remained neutral to slightly hawkish [2][20] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was anticipated, with 3 out of 12 FOMC members opposing the cut, indicating internal dissent [20] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut is expected next year, which is below market pricing of two cuts [3][12] - The Fed's economic outlook is described as "Goldilocks," with upward revisions to GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2028 and downward revisions to inflation forecasts for the same period [6][21] Group 2: Economic Projections - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are now projected at 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8% [21] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same periods are adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0% [21] Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is restarting "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, with a purchase scale of $40 billion per month starting this December [14][35] - RMP is distinct from quantitative easing (QE), as it involves purchasing short-term Treasury securities to manage liquidity rather than a broad monetary policy shift [15][16] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, the stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.67% [38] - The dollar index fell by 0.6% to 97.24, while yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds decreased [38]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】12 月 FOMC 会议点评 有克制的"价""量"双宽 主要观点 12 月 FOMC 会议：中性偏鹰的降息 1、降息 25BP 至 3.5-3.75%，符合预期。与 9 月就业数据变化相符合，本次会 议声明删除失业率"仍处于低位"的表述，对经济和通胀的描述没有变化。 2、"金发姑娘经济"预期：美联储官员上调 2025-2028 年的增长预测，下调 2025-2026 年的通胀预测。2025、2026、2027、2028 年四季度的 GDP 同比预 期分别为 1.7%、2.3%、2.0%、1.9%（9 月预期分别为 1.6%、1.8%、1.9%、1.8%）； 2025、2026、2027、2028 年四季度的核心 PCE 同比预期分别为 3.0%、2.5%、 2.1%、2.0%（9 月预期分别为 3.1%、2.6%、2.1%、2.0%）。 3、点阵图预计明年和后年各降息 1 次，但分歧较大。 4、重启"扩表"：从今年 12 月启动"储备管理购买"（具体见下文）。 5、鲍威尔的表态中性略偏鹰。1）认为明年经济将稳健增长。2）到年底失业 率可能升至 4.5%，随后将小幅 ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9:3的投票结果通过降息25个基点的决议，将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%，但与此同时强烈暗示后续或暂停降息。 这是美联储今年以来的第三次降息。分析人士表示，此次降息符合预期，仍是在就业市场出现明显放缓迹象的背景下进 行的一种前置、风险管理式的政策调整。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也在会后的新闻发布会上表示，短期内，美国通胀 风险偏上行，就业市场偏下行，形势仍然充满挑战。 不过，从利率路径点阵图、鲍威尔会后发言以及经济预测报告来看，分析人士认为，短期内美联储很可能按下降息暂停 键。 从利率路径点阵图来看，预测中值显示明年仅有1次降息，虽与9月时的预测持平，但预测范围异常分散。参与预测的19 人中，有7人预测利率不变或加息，4人预测降息1次，4人预测降息2次，另有4人预测降息3-6次。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗对智通财经表示，从点阵图来看，美联储内部分歧可能比FOMC投票结 果显示的更大，参与点阵图预测的19人中，有6人倾向于在本次（12月）会议上维持利率不变。考虑到这种分歧，布朗 认为，在明年5月 ...

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.410≈国内金价。 美联储如市场预期降息，是在巨大的分歧当中降息25基点；12个委员投票9个赞成降息25基点，米兰则支持降息50基点，还有两个委员反对降息！事后美国 总统特朗普抱怨降息幅度太小，应该降息50基点。 美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会表示，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，形势充满挑战；所以，大部分委员决定降息25基点。鲍威尔称，可以等 待并观察经济如何发展，没人预期会加息，利率处于中性水平区间的上端，购债规模将在未来数月保持在高位。 总结来说，降息了，但在分歧中降息；并且未来继续降息的门槛提高，并且开启了短期QE。说明美联储在矛盾中前行，决策。接下来一系列的数据，如非 农数据，CPI数据将左右美联储决策。 下周五，19号日本央行利率决议，市场普遍预期日本加息。全球两大央行，一个降息，一个加息，势必掀起一场暴风雨走势。 利率决策声明当中，宣布"购买短期国债"（将每月买入约 400 亿美元短债），这被视为启动量化宽松（QE）政策；消息打压美元，支撑黄金和美股等。利 率声明措辞新增"将考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机"。 点阵 ...

Key Takeaways The Fed Coupled a -25bps Rate Cut with an Advanced $40B T-bill Purchase PlanStock Market Rises, Bond Market Falls on the Fed NewsOracle, Adobe and Synopsys Report Earnings After the CloseWednesday, December 10, 2025As it turns out, the stock market loved today’s Fed announcement about a 25 bps rate cut. The small-cap Russell 2000 zoomed to a new all-time-high close, while the S&P 500 came within 5 points of its own all-time high. Bond yields, which had ratcheted up to +4.2% on the 10-year, wer ...

Uh, we got to go straight to Michael on this. Thank you for being part of our extended desk on this very important day, final Fed day of the year. What did you make of the Fed's moves.>> Yeah, I disagree with Steve. I think it was doubbish. Despite the quote fog of having no data, the Fed cut.What does that tell you. They want to cut some more. I think probably not in January, maybe not in March, but the door is open.So Powell could have said, "We're done." Which is what the Reserve Bank of Australia did a ...

CME FedWatch数据显示，市场对连续第三次降息的概率接近90%。利率操作已高度确定，但美联储内 部对未来政策路径的意见分歧明显。部分委员认为劳动力市场降温，需要进一步降息托底；另一部分委 员则担心宽松过度可能加剧通胀黏性。近期美国数据呈现降温迹象：招聘放缓、裁员增加、核心PCE仍 高于2%，使政策讨论更为复杂。前美联储货币事务主管比尔·英格利希指出，本次最可能结果是"鹰派 降息"，即利率下调的同时释放暂停信号，明确未来降息门槛提高。这一组合直接造成短线黄金承压。 美国政治方面的干扰也加大政策路径不确定性。特朗普强调"是否立即降息"将成为评估下一任美联储主 席的重要标准，并持续批评鲍威尔谨慎作风。市场上，鸽派候选人哈塞特被视为热门人选，押注其上任 概率升温。华尔街担忧，如果未来主席缺乏独立性，长期美债收益率可能进一步波动，甚至引发QE讨 论，这也在牵动黄金与美债的联动方向。 本次会议不仅包含利率决议，还涉及点阵图、经济预测及资产负债表方向的讨论。多位经济学家预计， 会后声明可能强调"调整幅度取决于数据表现"，从而抬高市场对未来宽松节奏的预期。隔夜资金市场压 力依然存在，美联储可能讨论明年债券购买的重启， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential implementation of RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) may signal the end of the "quantitative tightening" era and could lead to a new round of balance sheet expansion, with a possible monthly liquidity increase of $20 billion [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its balance sheet reduction, marking a significant shift in monetary policy [1] - RMP is anticipated to be widely discussed in the market, potentially being labeled as the "next generation QE" [1] - The ability of the Federal Reserve to stabilize the repo market and alter the direction of monetary policy is a key focus for Wall Street [1]