Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - During the week from June 9 to June 14, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, with major stock indices generally pulling back. The convertible bond market showed differentiation, with the average daily trading volume rising to 69.61 billion yuan. The market style gradually shifted from theme preference to defensive low - valuation. It is recommended to balance the layout of low - valuation pro - cyclical directions and high - rating large - cap convertible bonds and pay attention to phased opportunities in structural rotation [2][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme Weekly Review - The A - share market continued the theme rotation. Resource and pharmaceutical sectors were active. The rare earth permanent magnet index led the rise with a 12.5% increase. The pharmaceutical sector also performed well. However, the technology track was under pressure, with many technology - related indices falling by more than 2%. The short - term capital style switched from technology themes to resource and pharmaceutical sectors [14]. Convertible Bond Weekly Review - The convertible bond market was slightly under pressure, with trading activity continuing to pick up. The ChinaBond Convertible Bond Index fell slightly by 0.02%. Large - cap convertible bonds were more stable. The valuation of low - price convertible bonds was repaired, while that of high - price areas was under pressure. In the primary market, 6 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and clause games were active. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds with underlying stock catalysts and valuation repair space, and also consider high - rating large - cap convertible bonds [17][18]. Weekly Market Tracking Capital Shifts to Pro - cyclical, Structural Market Continues and Trading Heat Differs - Major A - share stock indices pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively. The market turnover increased, but the main funds had a net outflow of 1.77 billion yuan per day on average. Pro - cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while TMT and consumer sectors pulled back. It is recommended to pay attention to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - valuation sectors and beware of the valuation pull - back risk of high - level sectors [10]. Convertible Bond Market Narrowly Pulls Back, Defensive Sectors Strengthen - The convertible bond market was in shock consolidation. The average daily trading volume rose to 69.61 billion yuan. Capital preferred large - cap high - rating targets. In terms of valuation, low - price convertible bonds were repaired, and high - price areas were under pressure. In the industry, defensive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and non - ferrous metals performed strongly. It is recommended to focus on medium - and low - price individual bonds supported by fundamentals [10]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Games - In the primary market of convertible bonds, there was no new bond listing, only Luwei Convertible Bond entered the application stage. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond plans. In terms of clause games, 12 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 7 announced no downward revisions, and 1 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemptions, 3 announced expected trigger of strong redemptions, 2 announced early redemptions, and 3 clearly stated no redemptions [10]. Weekly Market Outlook - The A - share market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Pro - cyclical directions may have relatively advantageous opportunities, and TMT and consumer sectors may attract low - buying funds after the pull - back. For convertible bonds, the activity is stable at a high level, and the market preference shifts to large - cap high - rating targets and theme - game resonance varieties. It is recommended to balance the layout of medium - and high - price convertible bonds with reasonable valuations and medium - and low - price individual bonds with safety margins and elasticity repair space [19]. Convertible Bond Allocation Suggestions - Prioritize the layout of large - cap high - rating convertible bonds with high valuation safety margins and stable coupon structures. Moderately participate in the game opportunities of medium - and low - price, high - elasticity individual bonds, especially those in the consumer and pro - cyclical directions. Control positions, select varieties with short remaining terms and high trading activity to improve liquidity [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation industry [6]. Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to benefit cyclical sectors, with a positive outlook for the recovery of the petrochemical and chemical transportation sectors [2][4]. - The macroeconomic recovery and overall industrial demand improvement are anticipated to drive a rebound in chemical product profitability, with prices expected to rise from their lows throughout 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US plans to adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, which includes a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [2]. - China will also modify its tariffs on US goods similarly, indicating a potential easing of trade friction [2]. 2. Demand Stimulus Measures - Recent meetings in China have focused on stimulating demand and stabilizing employment and the economy, with measures to promote consumption, stabilize foreign trade, and support effective investment [3]. 3. Sector Performance Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for several cyclical sectors, including refining, MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), agricultural chemicals, and vitamins, driven by macroeconomic recovery and industrial demand [4]. - Specific sectors mentioned include: - **Refining**: Lower energy prices are expected to ease cost pressures for downstream refining companies [4]. - **MDI**: Price increases have been observed from major companies, with price hikes ranging from 100 to 300 USD per ton [4]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Prices for fertilizers and pesticides are showing signs of recovery, influenced by seasonal demand and international trade dynamics [4]. - **Vitamins**: Supply shifts towards China are noted, with prices for certain vitamins increasing due to global supply constraints [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [5]. - Specific companies to watch include: - **Oil and Gas**: China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC, and related service companies [5]. - **Materials**: Companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials are highlighted for their potential benefits from domestic substitution trends [5]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng are recommended due to favorable market conditions [5]. - **Vitamins and Amino Acids**: Companies like Andisu and Zhejiang Medicine are noted for their growth potential in these sectors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [1]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry is experiencing a slowdown in overall revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 237.785 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 59.904 billion yuan, showing a minimal growth of 0.07% [4][11]. - The net profit for the industry is under pressure, with a significant decline of 23.24% year-on-year to 9.642 billion yuan in 2024, and a 7.1% decrease to 3.534 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025. This is attributed to increased price sensitivity among domestic tourists [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sub-sectors within the consumer services industry are experiencing revenue growth without corresponding profit increases, particularly in the scenic spots and human resources service sectors [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance - The consumer services industry is seeing a stabilization in service consumption revenue, with a notable slowdown in growth compared to the explosive rebound in 2023. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 237.785 billion yuan, with a slight increase in the first quarter of 2025 [11][14]. - The report notes that tourists are becoming more price-sensitive, leading to a decline in net profits for tourism-related companies [11][14]. 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Scenic Spots - The scenic spots sector achieved a revenue of 22.866 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 3.34%, with a net profit of 1.808 billion yuan, up 26.27% [15][24]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue was 4.792 billion yuan, a growth of 3.65%, but net profit decreased by 13.06% to 0.356 billion yuan [17][30]. 2.2 Education - The education sector's revenue reached 34.106 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.61%, while net profit was 0.843 billion yuan, down 20.68% [36][40]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased to 7.935 billion yuan, a growth of 8.65%, with net profit at 0.346 billion yuan, down 7.93% [36][42]. 2.3 Hotels - The hotel sector reported total revenue of 24.964 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.09%, with net profit at 1.595 billion yuan, down 9.76% [46][48]. - In the first quarter of 2025, hotel revenue was 5.435 billion yuan, a decline of 8.09%, and net profit fell to 0.125 billion yuan, down 54.87% [46][55]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that while profits are under pressure due to macroeconomic factors, the gradual recovery of the domestic economy post-September 2024 may boost demand. It recommends focusing on sectors like education and human resources services that are likely to benefit from policy support [4][14]. - Specific companies to watch include Xueda Education (000526) and Keri International (300662) in the education and human resources sectors, respectively [4][14]. In the tourism sector, companies like Songcheng Performance (300144) and Changbai Mountain (603099) are highlighted for their potential recovery [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, specifically for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4]. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery in China, driven by various government measures to stabilize employment and promote economic growth, is expected to positively impact the chemical industry, leading to a rebound in profitability for chemical products in 2025 [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in cyclical sectors such as refining, MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), agricultural chemicals, and vitamins, with overall chemical prices expected to rise from their current lows [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The Chinese government has introduced several measures to stabilize employment and promote economic growth, which are expected to support the chemical industry [1]. - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of 5% for the entire year of 2024 [1]. 2. Chemical Product Price Trends - Refining: Lower energy prices are expected to ease cost pressures for downstream refining companies, with a positive outlook for large refining and coal chemical enterprises [2]. - MDI: Major companies have increased MDI prices by €175 per ton in Europe and $100-$300 per ton in other regions, although the average industry price continues to decline [2]. - Agricultural Chemicals: Potash prices have rebounded due to seasonal demand and tariffs, while phosphate prices are also showing signs of recovery [2]. - Vitamins: Supply for certain vitamins is shifting towards China, with prices for Vitamin D3 rising significantly [2]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil sector, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, as well as in the agricultural chemicals and private refining sectors [3]. - Companies in the vitamin and methionine sectors are also recommended for investment [3].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is expected to benefit from more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [2][13] - The construction index rose by 0.56% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.16 percentage points, with notable gains in small and mid-cap stocks related to transformation [1][25] - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant growth in new orders for major construction companies, indicating a recovery in traditional infrastructure sectors [20][24] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The April 25 Politburo meeting highlighted the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with a focus on increasing fiscal spending and issuing special bonds [2][13] - The meeting's optimistic stance on policies suggests potential improvements in physical construction volumes, particularly in infrastructure and housing sectors [2][19] Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week included significant gains in construction decoration, design services, and landscaping, with leading stocks such as Hanjia Design (+31%) and Sanwei Chemical (+22%) [1][25][30] - The construction sector's performance historically shows that it tends to underperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the month following the Politburo meetings, but this year may differ due to positive policy signals [2][19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth regions such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as cyclical sectors [1][30] - Recommendations include traditional construction blue-chip stocks and emerging business directions such as data centers and cleanroom technologies, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [31][32][33]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and a demand for stabilizing domestic consumption, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [2][13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved infrastructure investment, particularly in the central and western regions of China, as well as from cyclical opportunities in related sectors [2][30] - The report highlights a recovery in operational rates and an increase in new orders from central and state-owned enterprises, indicating an upward trend in construction activity [20][24] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The April 25 Politburo meeting stressed the need for more active macroeconomic policies, including the use of fiscal and monetary tools to support the real economy [2][13] - The meeting also indicated a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing local government investment capabilities [13][15] Market Performance - The construction index rose by 0.56% during the week of April 21-25, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16 percentage points [4][25] - Key stocks that performed well included Hanjia Design (+31%), Sanwei Chemical (+22%), and Meichen Technology (+16%) [25][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional construction blue-chip stocks and cyclical opportunities in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation projects [30][31] - Recommendations include high-performing local state-owned enterprises such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [30][31] - Attention is also drawn to emerging business directions such as computing power and cleanroom investments, as well as the semiconductor sector [32][33]

通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 截至3月31日，基金近三年夏普比率为0.0659，位于同类可比基金36/100。 AI基金西部利得港股通新机遇混合A（008861）披露2025年一季报，第一季度基金利润235.06万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0805元。报告期内，基金 净值增长率为15.3%，截至一季度末，基金规模为1716.36万元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金，长期投资于医药医疗股票。截至4月18日，单位净值为0.564元。基金经理是陶星言和胡超。 基金管理人在一季报中表示，年初以来港股先抑后扬，春节后在国内科技创新带动下港股科技龙头迎来价值重估行情。我们认为目前市场预期风险收益率在 本轮行情中有一定程度收敛，期间我们获利了结了部分达到预期收益的科技成长方向仓位，同时对顺周期板块和医药提升了配置仓位。 截至4月18日，西部利得港股通新机遇混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为12.49%，位于同类可比基金52/129；近半年复权单位净值增长率为-4.20%，位于 同类可比基金99/129；近一年复权单位 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly rose while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 slightly fell. Trading volume shrank again, just surpassing 1 trillion yuan, marking a new low since the Qingming Festival [1] Sector Performance - Real estate, hotel and catering, photolithography, and disperse dyes sectors led the gains, while gold, military electronics, cross-border payments, and diversified finance sectors saw declines. The electronic industry attracted over 5.6 billion yuan in net inflow from major funds, with basic chemicals, food and beverage, and computers each receiving over 3 billion yuan. Real estate, machinery, and defense industries also saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan. In contrast, non-ferrous metals, automotive, and beauty care sectors experienced net outflows of 2.52 billion yuan, 1.269 billion yuan, and 140 million yuan respectively [3] Investment Strategy - Orient Securities indicated that market volatility is expected to increase due to tariff risks, suggesting that the current tariff impact has not been fully resolved. The market may remain in a high-volatility state with limited short-term movement. The strategy should focus on closely monitoring policy developments and company earnings reports, particularly in sectors with high earnings certainty and those that can hedge against tariff impacts, such as import substitution [3] Retail Sector Insights - A joint initiative by several associations proposed that retail enterprises establish green channels and dedicated areas for foreign trade products to facilitate domestic sales. Huaxi Securities noted that leading retail companies are aiding the transition from export to domestic sales, highlighting the value of traditional channels as offline traffic returns. The new retail sector is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with cyclical sectors likely to recover from low levels, releasing performance elasticity [6] Tourism Sector Trends - Tuniu's data indicated that domestic travel bookings for the upcoming "May Day" holiday have increased by over 100% compared to the same period last year. Popular destinations include first-tier and new first-tier cities, with Guangzhou ranking second in popularity after Beijing. Guorong Securities anticipates a peak in travel bookings as the holiday approaches, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. The implementation of consumer policies is expected to further enhance growth opportunities in various service sectors, with the optimization of vacation systems continuing to drive the tourism market [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the convertible bond market, particularly focusing on the performance and outlook of various sectors including cyclical industries, photovoltaic (solar) industry, and banking sector convertible bonds [2][3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Divergence on Convertible Bonds**: The current market divergence regarding convertible bond investments stems from two main factors: reduced trading volume in equity indices and a lack of new catalysts for previously hot sectors like Deepseek and robotics. Additionally, the upcoming quarterly earnings reports historically pressure small-cap convertible bonds [2]. - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sectors, especially in chemicals, exhibit alpha characteristics in the convertible bond market. Despite slow recovery in real estate-related industries, the pricing logic in chemicals is becoming more pronounced. The livestock farming sector plays a crucial role in hedging debt repayment risks [3][4]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Opportunities**: The photovoltaic sector is highlighted as having significant opportunities in 2025, with expectations that component price adjustments will provide favorable conditions for related convertible bonds. The sector's large scale and ease of position accumulation are noted as advantages for achieving good returns [5][8]. - **Convertible Bond ETF Fund Flows**: Recent outflows from convertible bond ETFs are attributed to institutional profit-taking. The convertible bond index has shown strong performance, with returns of 3-4% for the index and 4-5% for small-cap indices in Q1 2025, leading to increased valuation safety margins [6]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The public market is experiencing a contraction, but the expiration of many large-cap convertible bonds and a structural bull market in equities may lead to the emergence of new products to supplement supply. The market may evolve into a dual approach with public funds and targeted financing types [7]. - **Investment Opportunities in Banking Convertible Bonds**: Banking convertible bonds have shown strong performance, with investment opportunities concentrated around significant price corrections. The upcoming earnings disclosure period may favor dividend stocks, providing good investment opportunities [9][10]. - **Trends in Directed Convertible Bonds**: Directed convertible bonds are rapidly developing, primarily used for project financing and liquidity supplementation. They can achieve financing through high conversion prices but cannot be adjusted downwards, reflecting regulatory measures to prevent conflicts of interest [11]. Other Important Insights - **Importance of Downward Adjustment Clauses**: Downward adjustment clauses in convertible bonds are crucial for investors, as they help mitigate repayment pressures in case of short-term issues. This feature contributes to the lower credit risk in the public market [12]. - **Differences Between Public and Private Convertible Bonds**: Public convertible bonds have standardized terms and are traded on exchanges, while private convertible bonds offer more customization but have lower liquidity and longer lock-up periods [13][14]. - **Unique Advantages of Private Convertible Bonds**: Private convertible bonds provide a stable asset class with minimal net value fluctuations, appealing to institutions sensitive to net asset value changes. Despite their liquidity issues, they can offer certain advantages for conservative investment strategies [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while there may be short-term fluctuations in the AI market, AI remains the long-term focus of the market [2][3] - The introduction of DeepSeek has positively influenced the domestic AI industry trends and fundamentals, with expectations of increased AI penetration across various sectors [3] - The A-share market is expected to show a trend of oscillating upward, supported by structural valuation reshaping opportunities due to the upcoming National People's Congress [5] Group 2 - The technology sector's main style is not expected to change significantly, with advancements in industries like DeepSeek and domestic robotics moving towards investment based on economic conditions [6][7] - Increased capital expenditure from major domestic companies and government initiatives indicates progress in the domestic industry chain, reducing reliance on U.S. tech giants [7] - The focus will be on AI applications benefiting from reduced inference costs, robotics sub-industries, and low-position growth sectors like military electronics [8]