Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic growth, consumption, fixed asset investment (FAI), property market, and trade dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Q3 GDP Growth**: The GDP growth for Q3 2025 softened to **4.8% YoY**, down from **5.2% in Q2**. This decline was attributed to weaker consumption and fixed asset investment, despite solid exports and industrial production [2][3][8] 2. **Deflation Trends**: Deflation persisted in Q3, with the GDP deflator narrowing slightly to **-1.0% YoY** from **-1.2% in Q2**. This indicates ongoing price pressures in the economy [2][8] 3. **Export Performance**: Exports showed resilience, growing **6.6% YoY** in Q3, up from **6.2% in Q2**. However, expectations for Q4 suggest a slowdown in export growth due to high base effects and global economic conditions [8][14] 4. **Consumption and Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth moderated to **3% YoY** in September, down from **3.4% in August**. The slowdown was influenced by high base effects from previous trade-in subsidies [10][11] 5. **Fixed Asset Investment**: FAI contracted by **-6.2% YoY** in Q3, a significant decline from **+2.1% YoY in Q2**. This contraction was driven by weaker manufacturing and infrastructure investments [13][30] 6. **Property Market Decline**: The property market continued to weaken, with property sales down **-10.5% YoY** in September. Property investment contracted by **-21.3% YoY** [9][30] 7. **Policy Easing Measures**: The government announced the issuance of **RMB 500 billion** in special bonds for infrastructure and strategic projects, alongside expected monetary policy easing with potential rate cuts [4][36] 8. **Future Growth Projections**: Q4 GDP growth is anticipated to decelerate further to around **4% YoY**, leading to a full-year growth estimate of **4.8%** for 2025 [3][30] Additional Important Insights 1. **Household Income and Consumption**: The household survey indicated slower growth in disposable income and consumer expenditures, which may further dampen consumption growth [2][10] 2. **Trade Relations**: Ongoing US-China trade tensions could impact export growth, with potential tariff increases posing risks to economic performance [28][29] 3. **Long-term Economic Planning**: The upcoming 4th Plenary Session is expected to set a slightly lower GDP growth target of **4.5-5.0%** for the next five years, focusing on high-quality growth and consumption [5][37] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign institutions are optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a slow bull market and advising investors to shift from "selling high" to "buying low" [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs believes that the MSCI China Index has rebounded 80% from its cycle low at the end of 2022, indicating a more sustainable upward trend for the Chinese stock market [2][3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for the CSI 300 Index until the end of 2026, driven by a gradual shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market [3] Group 2 - Foreign institutions are focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bring new opportunities to the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic consumption [4][5] - Morgan Stanley highlights the theme of "anti-involution" as a potential key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may include strategic goals for promoting high-quality growth and new productive forces [5] - UBS analysts suggest that the growth style may outperform the value style in the medium term, with a favorable risk-return profile for investing in the ChiNext Index [6] Group 3 - The focus on technology growth and "anti-involution" themes is increasing among foreign institutions, with a recommendation to prioritize growth stocks, particularly in private enterprises and AI sectors [6][7] - The report indicates that while themes related to supply-side factors have been well captured this year, opportunities in "anti-involution" and service consumption remain as additional themes [7]

Group 1 - UBS maintains an overweight rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improving capital return rates in the MSCI China index [1] - A-shares have experienced a style shift from "growth" to "value dividend" since October, influenced by US-China trade tensions and profit-taking in the tech sector, but the medium-term outlook for A-shares remains positive [1][3] - Foreign investors are closely monitoring China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly aspects related to "anti-involution," consumption promotion, high-quality growth, and the development of new productive forces [1][11] Group 2 - A-shares are showing structural differentiation, with major indices fluctuating, but foreign investors believe there is still high allocation value in the market despite recent tariff impacts [3][4] - The market's sensitivity to US-China trade tensions has decreased, and there is an expectation of policy measures to stabilize the market if significant volatility occurs [4] - Foreign investors favor industry leaders, with significant holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai, Ping An, and Wuliangye, indicating a preference for stable, high-quality stocks [6][7] Group 3 - Foreign investors are increasing their positions in leading stocks, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Siyi Electric and Hai Da Group during the third quarter [8][6] - UBS expresses a preference for A-shares over H-shares due to their defensive nature against geopolitical tensions, maintaining a focus on growth styles as the main investment theme [10] - The upcoming policies in the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to create potential opportunities in "anti-involution" and service consumption, which could drive cyclical improvements in various industries [12]

2025.10.21 本文字数：3357，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经 周楠 A股三大指数21日集体收涨，上证指数再次收复3900点。多家外资近日表态，继续看好中国市场，有国 际大行喊出"超配中国"。 瑞银日前公开表示，在新兴市场中继续给予中国超配评级，理由是，与另一新兴市场印度相比，中国 （企业）营收增长更快，每股收益增长同样较快，"即使忽略中国的AI及互联网股票，MSCI中国指数中 其余股票的资本回报率（ROIC）也在改善"。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊21日对第一财经记者表示，10月以来，A股经历了从"科技成 长"向"价值红利"的风格切换，影响因素包括中美贸易再次出现摩擦、投资者对组合进行再平衡，科技 板块前期涨幅较大、部分投资者获利了结等。但他认为，A股中期表现依然向好，"成长"风格可能跑 赢"价值"风格。 第一财经同时了解到，外资高度关注中国"十五五"规划，特别是"反内卷"、促消费、高质量增长和发展 新质生产力等方面的情况。 第一财经记者梳理上市公司三季报时还发现，部分外资三季度确实在行动，"瞄准"A股龙头股跑步入 场，部分个股的外资持股比例维持较高水平。比如，思源电气（002028.S ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with foreign investors expressing optimism about China's market, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in the A-share index compared to other emerging markets like India [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The A-share indices collectively rose on the 21st, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 3900-point mark [1]. - UBS has maintained an "overweight" rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improvements in capital return rates for the MSCI China Index [1][3]. - Since October, A-shares have shifted from a "technology growth" style to a "value dividend" style, influenced by factors such as renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been actively targeting leading A-share stocks, with significant holdings in companies like Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology, each having over 24% foreign ownership [2][6]. - As of the end of September, major foreign-favored stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and Wuliangye, with foreign institutional holdings reaching 85, 83, and 81 respectively [6]. - The banking sector remains a strong focus for foreign investors, with seven of the top ten A-share companies by foreign holdings being banks [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - UBS believes that the A-share market will continue to perform well in the medium term, with growth styles likely to outperform value styles [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power to navigate uncertainties in the trade environment [10]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide investment opportunities, particularly in areas like "anti-involution" and service consumption, which may drive cyclical improvements in various industries [10][11].

Group 1 - UBS maintains an overweight rating for China in emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improving capital return rates in the MSCI China index [1][3] - A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3900 points, indicating positive sentiment from foreign investors towards the Chinese market [1][3] - Foreign investors are focusing on China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly on themes like "anti-involution," consumption promotion, high-quality growth, and the development of new productivity [1][10] Group 2 - Foreign capital has been actively entering the A-share market, particularly targeting leading stocks, with significant foreign ownership in companies like Siyuan Electric and Huaming Equipment, where foreign holdings exceed 24% [2][6] - The A-share market has shown structural differentiation since October, with foreign investors not overly concerned about the impacts of recent tariff changes, suggesting that A-shares still hold high allocation value [3][4] - UBS and other institutions believe that the current market fluctuations present opportunities for long-term investors, especially in sectors with stable earnings growth [9][10] Group 3 - Leading stocks remain the favorite among foreign investors, with significant foreign institutional holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance, indicating strong interest in industry leaders [6][7] - As of the end of September, foreign holdings in A-shares exceeded 100 billion yuan for 42 stocks, with CATL leading at 265.66 billion yuan, highlighting the preference for high-value companies [7][8] - The focus on growth stocks is expected to continue, with UBS suggesting that growth styles may outperform value styles in the medium term, providing a favorable risk-return profile for investors [9][10] Group 4 - The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to emphasize supply-side measures and demand stimulation, with a focus on enhancing consumer income and improving the social security system [11] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive cyclical improvements across various industries, potentially impacting the overall earnings targets for the CSI 300 index by 2025 [10][11]

Core Insights - The article discusses China's economic outlook and key macro themes for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), highlighting the importance of nominal GDP growth and various strategic focuses for sustainable economic development [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Targets - China is expected to achieve most of the goals set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" by the end of 2025, with an implicit GDP growth target of 5.0-5.5% for the current plan and a potential slight reduction to 4.5-5.0% for the upcoming plan [5][6]. - The nominal GDP growth is crucial for achieving long-term goals, including raising per capita GDP to $14,000 by 2025 and doubling the actual GDP size compared to 2020 [5][6]. Group 2: High-Quality Growth and Innovation - The focus on "high-quality growth" and "new productivity" driven by innovation and total factor productivity growth is expected to be a primary task for the next decade [7]. - R&D spending is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate exceeding 7%, increasing its share of GDP from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.2% by 2030 [7]. Group 3: Consumption and Domestic Demand - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to place greater emphasis on boosting consumption to achieve more sustainable and balanced economic growth [8]. - Potential measures include increasing household income, enhancing social security systems, and improving the quality of consumption, with a goal to raise consumption's share of GDP from 56.6% in 2024 to 58-60% by 2030 [8]. Group 4: Social Investment and Welfare - The government is expected to reiterate the theme of "investing in people," focusing on new urbanization, vocational training, and increased fiscal spending on education, healthcare, and social security [9]. Group 5: Market Integration and Anti-Competition Measures - The new plan may enhance policies against "involution" and promote the establishment of a "national unified market," aiming to curb disorderly local government investments and stimulate local consumption [10]. Group 6: Opening Up and Global Integration - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is likely to further open up the service sector to foreign investment, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, and finance [11]. - There will be increased policy support for Chinese companies to expand globally, especially in competitive emerging industries like new energy vehicles and e-commerce [11]. Group 7: Carbon Emission Reduction Goals - The new plan may set ambitious carbon emission reduction targets, aiming for a 24% decrease in carbon emissions per unit of GDP from 2026 to 2030 [12]. - It is expected to establish a target for non-fossil energy to account for 25% of total energy consumption by 2030, up from approximately 20% in 2024 [12]. Group 8: Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The government is likely to accelerate fiscal reforms, including the introduction of more direct taxes and adjustments to the distribution of tax revenues between central and local governments [13][14]. - Proposed reforms may include shifting consumption tax collection from production to consumption and creating a new "local additional tax" to allow local governments to set their own rates [14].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and the upcoming **14th Five-Year Plan** (2021-2025) and the anticipated **15th Five-Year Plan** (2026-2030) [2][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Goals and Projections**: - China is expected to achieve most of the goals set in the **14th Five-Year Plan** by the end of 2025, except for the reduction in carbon emission intensity [2][8]. - The **implicit GDP growth target** for the **15th Five-Year Plan** is projected to be slightly lowered to **4.5-5.0%**, compared to **5.0-5.5%** in the previous plan [3][12]. 2. **Focus on High-Quality Growth**: - The government aims to promote **high-quality growth** and develop **new productivity** driven by innovation and total factor productivity [4][18]. - R&D spending is expected to grow at a **compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7%**, increasing its share of GDP from **2.7% in 2024** to **3.2% by 2030** [4][18]. 3. **Consumer Spending and Social Investment**: - The new plan will emphasize **consumer spending**, aiming to increase residents' income and improve the social security system [5][24]. - The government may set a clear target for **consumption as a percentage of GDP**, potentially increasing from **56.6% in 2024** to **58-60% by 2030** [5][24]. 4. **External Opening and Corporate Expansion**: - The **15th Five-Year Plan** is expected to further open up the service sector to foreign investment, particularly in telecommunications, healthcare, education, and finance [6][31]. - There will be increased support for Chinese companies to expand globally, especially in emerging sectors like **new energy vehicles** and **e-commerce** [6][31]. 5. **Environmental Goals**: - The plan will maintain ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions, with a goal of **25% of total energy consumption from non-fossil sources by 2030** [6][32]. - The government aims to reduce carbon intensity by **65% from 2005 levels by 2030**, which is considered a challenging target [32]. 6. **Fiscal Reforms**: - The government is likely to accelerate fiscal reforms, including the introduction of more **direct taxes** and adjustments to the revenue-sharing system between central and local governments [36][38]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The **14th Five-Year Plan** has faced significant challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing trade tensions, yet it is still on track to meet most of its key objectives [8][9]. - The **real estate market** continues to face downward pressure, impacting consumer confidence and overall demand [9][10]. - Long-term challenges such as **population aging** and **resource allocation efficiency** remain critical issues for China's growth potential [9][10]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, strategic priorities, and potential challenges facing China in the upcoming years.

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for banks, particularly CITIC Bank, to fundamentally reconstruct their value creation model in response to structural challenges in the banking industry, such as interest rate marketization and financial disintermediation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - CITIC Bank's 2025 mid-term report shows a steady profit growth, with a 2.8% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in a challenging environment [9]. - The bank's total assets grew by 8.28% year-on-year, and its net interest margin (NIM) of 1.63% ranks among the top in the industry, reflecting effective management of interest income and costs [5][13]. Group 2: Quality of Growth - The bank focuses on high-quality growth, which is not merely about improving financial metrics but involves a multi-dimensional evolution in structure, efficiency, risk, and innovation [4][5]. - CITIC Bank is transitioning from a scale-dependent model to one driven by capabilities, as evidenced by faster growth in off-balance sheet financing and wealth management compared to traditional lending [6][7]. Group 3: Systematic Approach - The bank's management prioritizes system construction and capability enhancement over short-term results, believing that a robust system is essential for sustainable growth [10][11]. - CITIC Bank's strategy includes a clear path for system advancement, focusing on core capabilities and integrated multi-dimensional capabilities to create a unique financial ecosystem [10]. Group 4: Structural Optimization - The bank emphasizes structural optimization across various dimensions, including business, asset, liability, and customer structures, to ensure balanced and resilient growth [12]. - CITIC Bank's approach to asset quality involves increasing credit support for high-quality assets while reducing the proportion of low-efficiency assets, aligning with national strategic goals [12]. Group 5: Risk Management - The bank has adopted a proactive risk management strategy, integrating risk considerations into all business processes rather than relying solely on traditional tightening measures [14][15]. - Key risk indicators, such as non-performing loan ratios and provisioning coverage, remain stable, with a focus on enhancing the value of problem assets through effective management [15]. Group 6: Competitive Advantage - The competitive advantage for CITIC Bank lies in its adaptive capabilities and deep systemic strength rather than mere speed or scale, positioning it for sustainable development in a complex environment [16].