今天黄金市场正处于暴风雨前的短暂平静中。昨晚金价冲高后大幅回落，现在市场所有焦点都已锁定在几小时后即将公布的美国非农就业数据上。 今天市场只有一个主角：美国11月非农就业报告（市场同样关注延迟发布的10月数据）。这份数据将直接影响市场对美联储2026年利率路径的预期，可能引 发金价剧烈波动。目前，市场预期美联储在2026年1月降息的可能性约为78%。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 白银、铂金等其他贵金属近期表现强势，整个板块的看涨氛围对黄金形成侧面支撑。 4280-4300美元为日内第一支撑。关键支撑在4250美元附近，若跌破则可能向4220-4230美元区域寻找支撑。 激进：金价反弹至4335-4345阻力区且出现乏力信号，可考虑轻仓试空，止损设于4350美元上方，目标看4300-4310美元。 近期主要利空：避险需求降温 美联储在上周降息后启动了短期国债购买，为市场注入流动性，整体环境对黄金有利。 地缘局势缓和：昨日市场传出消息，美国与乌克兰的和平谈判取得进展，这削弱了黄金的避险吸引力，是导致金价从日内高点回落的重要原因。 个人思路： 长期支撑依然稳固 在非农 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently trading around $4,324 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.48% with fluctuations between $4,297.39 and $4,325.32 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Core PCE price index, retail sales data, and Eurozone inflation data are set to be released, with the Core PCE expected to maintain a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. A higher-than-expected figure could boost gold prices due to its anti-inflation properties, while a lower figure may lead to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold [2] - Strong retail sales data would highlight U.S. economic resilience, potentially reducing rate cut expectations and negatively affecting gold prices, whereas weak data could increase safe-haven demand for gold [2] Geopolitical Factors - Signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Ukraine's President expressing willingness to abandon NATO membership as a core part of peace negotiations, have led to a short-term decline in gold prices as the risk premium decreases [2] - Ongoing tensions in Southeast Asia, including unresolved ceasefire arrangements between Thailand and Cambodia, and a terrorist attack in the Australian Jewish community, continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [2] Market Sentiment - The international gold price has increased nearly 60% in 2025, currently hovering around the $4,300 mark. There is a strong profit-taking sentiment in the market, with institutions and large investors potentially selling at high prices to lock in gains, which may lead to a short-term price correction [3] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded strongly in November, recovering most of October's losses, which has shifted the bearish outlook to a more bullish one. However, the price needs to break above the $4,400 level to open further upside potential, or it may face resistance and horizontal adjustments [4] - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices are still above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook, although there is resistance at the trendline [4] - Daily charts indicate a potential risk of further corrections due to a long upper shadow candlestick pattern, but the overall trend remains upward with multiple moving average supports below [4]

11:01 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构:美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1050.83 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-12-11 1.060 1.050 1.040 1,030 1.020 1.010 2025-10-22 2025-11-13 2025-12-05 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 今天是12月12日,全球最大黄金ETF -- SPD … 展开 ( C 基本面消息，周四公布的数据显示，美国上周美国初请失业金人数大幅上升至23.6万人，远高于预期，疲弱的劳动力数据推动了黄金的避险需求。金价在 触及日内低点4204美元后强劲反弹，突破近期区间。 具体来看，美国劳工部数据显示，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数升至23.6万人，较前一周上修后的19.2万人大幅上升，单周增幅创下2020年以来最 大。不过截至11月29日当周的续请失业金人数从193.7万人降至183.8万人，为八个月低位，显示长期失业状况出现一定稳定迹象。 分析指出，截至12月6日当周的初请失业金人数意外跳升，成为改变市场情绪的催化剂，进一步推动投资者押注美联储将被迫采取更宽松的政策立场，从 而推动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is expected to experience an upward trend in prices due to multiple influencing factors, including potential aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical risks [1] - As of December 10, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 0.74%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 14.66% and Shen Zhonghua A (000017) up 4.11% [1] - The gold stock ETF fund (159322) increased by 0.58%, with the latest price reported at 1.57 yuan [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547), collectively accounting for 68.26% of the index [2]

昨日11月26日（星期三），黄金早盘开盘强势上涨，中午涨至4169/4170附近受阻回落，午后下探4147再次企稳上涨，到美盘前最高上涨至4173/4174区域受 阻回落，美盘最低下跌至4136附近，随后又快速上涨起来，尾盘维持在4160-4170区域震荡，日线收阳。 一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期升温：市场对12月降息押注大幅增加，芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示，降息25个基点的概率从一周前30%升至85%；美联储官员 鸽派表态、潜在新任主席人选（白宫经济顾问哈西特）的宽松政策倾向，进一步强化宽松预期，低利率环境降低黄金持有机会成本，推动资金流入。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金在周三交易日呈现上涨态势，最终收报阳线。此前提及的三角收敛震荡区间，当前金价已运行至该形态的阻力区域附近。日内需首要关 注行情在阻力区域能否形成有效受阻，若受阻则大概率延续震荡格局；若金价向上突破该阻力区域，短期趋势将进一步延续看涨态势，上方核心阻力位需重 点关注4245附近。 指标层面，5日均线与10日均线形成金叉信号，其中5日均线维持向上延伸态势，10日均线走平。日内下方支撑需重点关注5日均线所处的4130附近区域，该 ...

金价突破4100美元，这次推动它上涨的力量，可能和很多人想的不太一样。 不是"中国大妈"，也不是普通投资者，真正的"大买家"是各国央行。 2025年以 来，全球央行的黄金净购买量预计将分别达到平均80吨和70吨，这种体量的购买是个人投资者难以企及的。 东亚波动与日元的连锁反应 市场立刻对东亚的紧张局势做出了反应，一个明显的表现是日元快速贬值，美元对日元汇率一度突破157关口。 这意味着有大量资金正在撤离日本。 市场普遍预期，如果日元继续下跌，跌破160这一关键心理关口，日本央行将大概率入场干预汇市。 干预方式通常是大量抛售其外汇储备中的美元和美债， 同时买入日元来支撑汇率。 这个行动本身会产生连锁反应：日本央行大量抛售美债和美元会导致美元指数走弱，而美元走弱则会推动以美元计价的黄金价格上涨。 回顾历史，每次日 本央行大规模干预汇市时，黄金都曾出现单日大涨行情。 俄乌谈判再陷僵局 在俄乌局势方面，期待中的和平似乎再次变得遥远。 乌克兰总统办公室近期表态非常直白，声称之前特朗普推动的那个包含28项条款的和平协议现在已经 不作数了。 不寻常的是，这次黄金的强势上涨，居然发生在美元同样走强的背景下。 这彻底打破了以往 ...

Core Insights - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, stand at 1,041.43 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - Gold prices have continued to decline, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - The market is experiencing a shift in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to easing global trade tensions and the end of government shutdowns [5] Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 17, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were reported at 1,041.43 tons, down from previous levels [5] - The decline in holdings correlates with a drop in gold prices, which fell to around $4,000 per ounce before recovering slightly to close at $4,045.50 [5] Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been under pressure due to a strong US dollar and diminishing expectations for a December interest rate cut, with the probability dropping from 94% to 44% [5] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is becoming more hawkish, which may continue to impact gold prices negatively in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently showing a range-bound pattern, with key support around $4,043 and resistance at $4,100 [7] - If gold prices break below the $4,040-$4,050 range, they may revisit the previous range of $3,900-$4,050 [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are currently dominant, while the MACD shows signs of losing bearish momentum [7]

我们觉得黄金是"未完待续"。但是我觉得明年大家也不要期待黄金涨得会比今年还要高。这个可能是比较现实的。 我们可以看一下黄金过往的走势，有一张图是从1968年到2025年，可以非常明显的看到金价跟美元的走势是一个反向关系。当然中间偶尔有一两年它可能 也是成正向的关系，但是大体上来说还是成反向的关系。这两年黄金虽然和美元依然是一个反向关系，但是有个很有意思的现象，就是美元并没有出现大 幅下跌的情况下，黄金上涨的斜率非常高。所以，这里边一定发生了一些和以前不一样的地方。 我们认为这背后应该是"去美元化"在推动，"去美元化"执行的最显著的是谁？就是各国的央妈。比如我们中国的央行也在继续增持，尤其是23年开始，各 国央行累计的黄金储备开始比22年有一个相对比较显著的上涨。24年比23年有显著的上涨，25年又比24年有更显著的上涨。所以这几年各国央行在增持黄 金这件事情上，都还蛮一致的。到9月底的时候，根据官方披露的数据，我们的黄金储备是7402万盎司，美元计价的话是2972.09亿美元，目前我国的外汇 储备是3.3万亿美元，可以看出，黄金的占比还不到10%，四舍五入就按10%算。所以我们央妈对黄金的资产配置在它的外储占 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a short-term pullback in gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains intact due to gold's strong safe-haven asset characteristics [3] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has shifted market focus towards economic data, increasing uncertainty due to diverging views on Federal Reserve policy [2][3] - Gold ETF funds have seen significant net inflows, with a total of 3.31 billion yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the gold ETF fund has experienced a 4.77% increase over the past week, with a current price of 9.13 yuan [1] - On November 13, spot gold prices fell by 0.54% to $4,172.84 per ounce, with a notable drop of over $100 during the day due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The trading volume for the gold ETF fund reached 5.39 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 13.43 billion yuan over the past week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continued to strengthen but experienced volatility due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with a significant intraday fluctuation exceeding $100 [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the close, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.93% to $4,174.5 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF rose by 1.6% and the gold stock ETF increased by 3.07% [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. government ended its 43-day shutdown, marking the longest in history, which has shifted market focus towards economic data [1] - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on monetary policy, with concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target, leading to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - Weak economic data from the Eurozone and an unclear global economic outlook are supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]