更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

AI数据中心的加速扩张，叠加"反内卷"浪潮的推进，新能源赛道2026年有望迎来新机遇。 两部门：到2030年，支撑新能源发电量占比达30％左右 2025年12月31日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合发布《关于促进电网高质量发展的指导意见》（简 称《意见》）。其中提出，到2030年，主干电网和配电网为重要基础、智能微电网为有益补充的新型电 网平台初步建成，主配微网形成界面清晰、功能完善、运行智能、互动高效的有机整体。电网资源优化 配置能力有效增强，"西电东送"规模超过4.2亿千瓦，新增省间电力互济能力4000万千瓦左右，支撑新 能源发电量占比达到30%左右，接纳分布式新能源能力达到9亿千瓦，支撑充电基础设施超过4000万 台，公共电网的基础作用充分发挥，智能微电网多元化发展，电力系统保持稳定运行，服务民生用电更 加有力。 《意见》还提出，到2035年，主干电网、配电网和智能微电网发展充分协同，贯通各级电网的安全治理 机制更加完善，电网设施全寿命周期智能化、数字化水平明显提升，有效支撑新型电力系统安全稳定运 行和各类并网主体健康发展，支撑实现国家自主贡献目标，为基本实现社会主义现代化提供坚强电力保 障。 新能源赛 ...

（原标题：北交所新股蘅东光1分钟暴涨1128%，中一签浮盈超3万） 对于业绩的持续增长，蘅东光表示，2024年以来，受AI数据中心建设进程加快的影响，公司下游客户 需求旺盛，主要产品包括无源光纤布线、无源内连光器件及相关配套业务产品销售规模快速上升，经营 业绩增长较快。若未来AI数据中心建设进程减缓、光通信行业发展不及预期，公司经营业绩存在一定 下滑的风险。 蘅东光还提醒道，公司境外销售收入占比较高，为公司营业收入和利润的主要来源，其中美国市场为最 重要的收入来源。报告期各期，公司主营业务收入中境外收入占比分别为 75.90%、79.00%、87.62%及 90.00%。若贸易摩擦加剧，或将对公司生产经营发展造成重大不利影响。 12月31日，蘅东光正式登陆北交所，高开超1000%，报350元/股，开盘后1分钟内股价一度暴涨达 1128%。截至下午2点11分，蘅东光报320.07元/股，涨916.14%，总市值来到217亿左右。 市场分析认为，2025年北交所新股赚钱效应明显，打新参与热度持续提升，不少大额资本均寻找拥有相 关资质的机构合作，寻找套利机会。蘅东光的火爆表现并非个例，北交所今年新上市企业数量达26 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Company "Hengdongguang" debuted on the Beijing Stock Exchange on December 31, with a peak intraday increase of over 1120%, reaching 388 CNY per share, and closing at 319.5 CNY, giving it a market capitalization of 21.75 billion CNY [1] - The company operates in the rapidly growing optical module sector and is recognized as a national "little giant" enterprise, with business segments including passive optical fiber wiring and passive inline optical devices [2] - Hengdongguang's core products include optical fiber connectors and multi-fiber parallel passive inline optical devices, serving notable clients such as AFL, Coherent, and Hisense [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Hengdongguang show significant growth, with expected revenues of 475 million CNY in 2022, 613 million CNY in 2023, and 1.315 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.07% [2] - The net profit is projected to grow from 55 million CNY in 2022 to 148 million CNY in 2024, with a CAGR of 128.50% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.021 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 105.84%, and a net profit of 143 million CNY, up 170.72% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global optical communication industry is expected to see the market size of optical modules exceed 20 billion USD by 2027, with data centers becoming the largest application market [2] - Hengdongguang's sales are predominantly export-oriented, with 90% of total revenue coming from overseas markets in 2024, and the largest client, AFL Group from the USA, contributing 706 million CNY, accounting for over half of total revenue [3]

另外，该行料铜行业供需格局持续偏紧。全球铜矿资本开支持续下行，加上资源贫化及矿产国政策不确 定性，形成长期供应约束。需求方面，传统领域展现韧性，AI数据中心等产业高速发展亦带来持续新 增需求。2026年铜供需格局向好，加上美联储流动性宽松预期，共同推动铜价稳步上行。 银河证券发布研报称，首次覆盖五矿资源(01208)，予"推荐"评级;以当前港汇计，预计公司2025至27年 营业收入分别达483亿、645亿及687亿港元，归母净利润达56亿、104亿及121亿港元。该行认为公司矿 山资源优质，旗下三大铜矿产能持续上升，成长路径清晰，而且有显著成本优化空间。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研报称，首次覆盖五矿资源(01208)，予"推荐"评级; 以当前港汇计， 预计公司2025至27年营业收入分别达483亿、645亿及687亿港元，归母净利润达56亿、104亿及121亿港 元。该行认为公司矿山资源优质，旗下三大铜矿产能持续上升，成长路径清晰，而且有显著成本优化空 间。 另外，该行料铜行业供需格局持续偏紧。全球铜矿资本开支持续下行，加上资源贫化及矿产国政策不确 定性，形成长期供应约束。需求方面，传统领域展现韧性，AI数据中心等产业高速发展亦带来持续新 增需求。2026年铜供需格局向好，加上美联储流动性宽松预期，共同推动铜价稳步上行。 ...

银河 证券发表报告，首次覆盖五矿资源，予"推荐"评级。以当前港汇计，该行预计公司2025至27年营 业收入分别达483亿、645亿及687亿港元，归母净利润达56亿、104亿及121亿港元。该行认为公司矿山 资源优质，旗下三大铜矿产能持续上升，成长路径清晰，而且有显著成本优化空间。另外，该行料铜行 业供需格局持续偏紧。全球铜矿资本开支持续下行，加上资源贫化及矿产国政策不确定性，形成长期供 应约束。需求方面，传统领域展现韧性，AI 数据中心等产业高速发展亦带来持续新增需求。2026年铜 供需格局向好，加上美联储流动性宽松预期，共同推动铜价稳步上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of N Hengtong (920045) surged by 1128.24% on its first trading day, reaching a market capitalization of 26.4 billion yuan, following an IPO price of 31.59 yuan per share, indicating significant investor interest and potential in the optical communication sector [1]. Company Overview - N Hengtong was established in 2011 and specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field [1]. - The company is recognized as a national-level "specialized and innovative" small giant enterprise [1]. - Its product offerings include passive optical fiber cabling and passive interconnect devices, with over 80% of its main business revenue derived from the data center sector [1]. Product and Market Position - N Hengtong has achieved mass production of passive interconnect devices for 400G and 800G optical modules, with limited shipments of 1.6T products and development of CPO-related products [1]. - The company's clientele includes notable firms such as AFL, Coherent, Jabil, Telamon, and Hisense, with products utilized by global giants like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and NVIDIA [1]. - The company holds 111 domestic patents (including 17 inventions) and 1 international invention patent, indicating a strong focus on innovation [1]. Revenue and Geographic Exposure - A significant portion of N Hengtong's revenue comes from international markets, with products exported to North America, Asia, and Europe [1]. - The company faces risks related to high customer concentration, overseas operations, and international trade frictions [1].

| 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [起始交易日期] 本年初 [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 801050.SL | 有色金属 | 92.64 | | 2 | 801770.SL | 通信 | 87.27 | | 3 | 801080.SL | 电子 | 49.40 | | ব | 801230.SL | 综合 | 44.90 | | 5 | 801730.SL | 电力设备 | 43.12 | 而这轮有色牛中，有一把特别锋利的"矛"——有色矿业（931892.CSI），不仅是A股6只有色指数中唯一实现年内涨幅翻倍（超102%）的指数，而且成分股 的"有色金属"含量也是6只指数中最高。 | 롭을 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 区间涨跌幅 ÷ [起始交易日期] 本年初 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [截止交易日期] 20251230 [单位] % | | 1 | 931892.CSI | 有色矿业 | 102.50 | | 2 | 00081 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have experienced significant volatility, with a recent peak above $84 followed by a sharp decline, raising concerns about a potential bubble in the market. However, analysts from Societe Generale caution against solely relying on quantitative models that suggest bubble behavior, emphasizing the need for a nuanced interpretation of price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, structural supply constraints, and increased industrial demand driven by trends in electrification and renewable energy [3][4]. - The LPPLS model used by Societe Generale indicates that the current market state of silver may resemble a bubble, but analysts argue that this model should be viewed as a diagnostic tool rather than a definitive predictor of market behavior [2][3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand - The World Silver Association highlights that industrial demand for silver is being driven by significant growth in sectors such as AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy, with projected compound annual growth rates of 17% for the photovoltaic industry and 13% for the electric vehicle sector [4][5]. - The association forecasts that the demand for silver in industrial applications will continue to rise, particularly as global data center IT power capacity is expected to increase dramatically by 2025, necessitating more silver for essential components [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that silver could reach $100 per ounce by 2026, supported by ongoing market dynamics and investment trends, although this target is viewed as an extreme bullish scenario [6][7]. - The dual role of silver as both an industrial metal and a store of value is attracting significant investment, with experts suggesting that the long-term bullish factors for silver remain strong [6][7].