"全球大模型第一股"即将登陆港股！北京智谱华章科技股份有限公司（下称"智谱"）今起招股，预计2026年1月5日结束，并计划于2026 年1月8日正式以"2513"为股票代码在港交所主板挂牌上市。 全球公开发售文件显示，智谱(02513.HK)计划在本次IPO中发行【3741.95】万股H股。其中，香港公开发售【187.1】万股H股，国际发售 【3554.85】万股H股。以每股【116.20】港元发行价计算，智谱本次IPO募资总额预计将达43亿港元，IPO市值预计超511亿港元。 智谱招股书链接： 智谱作为中国最早研发大模型的企业，也是中国收入体量最大的独立大模型厂商，一直备受市场青睐，在IPO之前，智谱已完成了8轮融 资，融资规模超83亿元，云集一批主流明星投资机构。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2024年的收入计，公司在中国独立通用大模型开 发商中位列第一，在所有通用大模型开发商中位列第二。 本次登陆港股，其作为"全球大模型第一股"的标的稀缺性，更是吸引国际长线基金、知名产业资本及投资机构作为基石投资者。根据全 公开发售文件，本次上市，智谱引入JSC International Investment Fund ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of domestic computing power in China, emphasizing the need for improved software ecosystems and system-level optimization to enhance the utilization of domestic chips in AI applications [5][21]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Market Trends - The GAIR conference highlighted the rapid evolution of computing power and its impact on AI technology and industry structure, focusing on the next decade of China's AI industry [2]. - The speaker, Shi Tianhui, pointed out that the bottleneck in the utilization of domestic computing power lies in the software ecosystem and system-level optimization capabilities [5][21]. - The MaaS (Model as a Service) market is experiencing significant growth, with a reported increase of over 400% in the first half of the year, indicating a strong demand for AI services [33]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions in AI Infrastructure - The current challenge is that many domestic enterprises purchase chips from multiple vendors, leading to difficulties in software compatibility and maintenance [22][13]. - The company has developed a proprietary inference engine, "Chitu," which aims to simplify the use of domestic chips and improve their performance [21][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a unified software solution to address the "M×N" problem of optimizing multiple models across various chips, which requires significant resources and expertise [25][29]. Group 3: Innovations and Product Offerings - The "Chitu" inference engine has been designed to support both domestic and foreign chips, significantly lowering the barriers for customers to utilize AI applications effectively [22][27]. - The company has introduced "AI Ping," a one-stop platform for evaluating and accessing various MaaS offerings, which aims to reduce information asymmetry in the market [30][36]. - The platform provides comprehensive performance evaluations and a routing function that allows users to access multiple suppliers through a single interface, enhancing cost efficiency and service reliability [39][41].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Zhipu AI as it seeks to go public amidst a changing landscape in the Chinese AI industry, highlighting the shift from a focus on technology to the necessity of generating cash flow [1][2] Group 1: Company Background and Development - Zhipu AI, founded by a team from Tsinghua University, has been labeled as a "national algorithm hope" and has developed several commercially viable large models, including the GLM series [3][4] - The company has transitioned from a research project to a unicorn and is now the first in China to pursue an IPO in the large model sector [1][4] - Zhipu AI's technological advancements have positioned it alongside major players like Baidu and Alibaba in performance rankings [4] Group 2: Commercialization Challenges - The company faces a disconnect between its research-driven approach and the market's demand for practical solutions, leading to delays in commercialization compared to competitors [6][10] - Zhipu AI's initial focus on proving algorithmic capabilities has resulted in a lack of attention to customer needs, impacting its revenue generation [7][11] - The shift from a research narrative to a commercial narrative is essential for Zhipu AI as it navigates the pressures of profitability and customer acquisition [9][10] Group 3: Financial and Market Dynamics - The IPO is seen as a necessary step for survival rather than a celebratory milestone, reflecting the tightening capital environment and the need for stable cash flow [2][20] - Zhipu AI's valuation has been significantly adjusted, with estimates dropping from approximately 250 billion RMB to between 100 billion and 200 billion RMB as the market shifts focus from narrative to financial performance [19][20] - The company must demonstrate its ability to generate consistent revenue and manage customer relationships effectively to satisfy investor expectations post-IPO [19][30] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Zhipu AI's future competition will not only come from startups but also from established tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, which have substantial resources [26][31] - The company needs to establish a unique position within the ecosystem by offering capabilities that are difficult for larger competitors to replicate [32][39] - The transition from a research-focused entity to a commercially viable platform is critical for Zhipu AI to thrive in a rapidly evolving market [34][39]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains Alibaba Group's earnings forecast and buy rating, projecting revenues for FY2026-FY2028 at 1,038.6 billion, 1,143.4 billion, and 1,250.6 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 101.9 billion, 145.5 billion, and 183.6 billion RMB respectively. The SOTP valuation method yields a target valuation of 3,412.4 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 203 USD per ADS, indicating a 34% upside potential, and a target price of 197 HKD per share, also reflecting a 34% upside potential [1]. Group 1 - AI cloud growth is expected to continue, driven by improved Capex and accelerating cloud revenue trends, with domestic AI cloud fundamentals remaining positive for the coming year. Alibaba is noted for its comprehensive self-developed technology stack in cloud computing, which includes chips, servers, operating systems, and large models, positioning it among the top tier in terms of revenue scale, growth rate, and profit margins in China [2]. - The competition from ByteDance's Volcano Engine focuses on the MaaS layer, but Alibaba Cloud's advantages in full-stack solutions and ecosystem integrity are difficult to replicate in the short term. Alibaba Cloud's leadership in the broader AIIaaS and overall cloud market is supported by the demand for enterprise-wide intelligent transformation [3]. Group 2 - The domestic AI chip market is experiencing a surge in demand for localized computing power, with Alibaba's T-head chips achieving performance levels comparable to international standards and winning bids for large intelligent computing center projects. This development is crucial for Alibaba Cloud to provide differentiated computing services and enhance profit margins [4]. - Alibaba is positioning itself to capture the C-end entry point, potentially unlocking monetization opportunities. The company is enhancing its AI capabilities to transition from graphical user interfaces to natural language interfaces, integrating its ecosystem through products like the Quark AI glasses, which aim to create a seamless connection between various services [5].

Core Insights - The global enterprise MaaS market is rapidly growing, with OpenAI and Google Cloud leading in daily token usage, followed by China's Volcano Engine [1][4] - The latest data shows that the daily token usage of Volcano Engine's Doubao model has exceeded 50 trillion, marking a 66.7% increase from October and over tenfold growth year-on-year [4] - The introduction of multimodal models like GPT-5.2, Gemini 3.0, and Doubao 1.8 is expanding application scenarios and enhancing user experience [4][5] Market Position - As of October 2025, OpenAI and Google Cloud are projected to have daily token usage of approximately 70 trillion and 43 trillion, respectively, while Volcano Engine holds a 15% market share with over 30 trillion tokens [1] - Together, these three companies account for 65% of the global MaaS market [1] Growth Drivers - The MaaS services are noted as the fastest-growing and highest-margin AI cloud computing products [4] - Continuous innovation in model structure and hardware optimization is leading to high cost-performance ratios and superior margins compared to traditional IaaS products [4] - The emergence of image and video creation models, such as Nano Banano and Doubao Seedream 4.0, is lowering production barriers and expanding accessibility [5] Future Outlook - Omdia forecasts that the growth rate of the global MaaS market will further accelerate in 2026 as model vendors and cloud providers enhance AI cloud infrastructure [5]

Group 1: Refining Industry Overview - The refining industry is expected to improve as costs have returned to a comfortable zone, with oil prices stabilizing in a neutral range due to OPEC's production increases and rising non-OPEC output [11] - Current refining product demand is at historically low levels, providing a high safety margin for future performance improvements [11] - Capital expenditure growth in the refining sector is slowing, with some companies nearing the end of their capital spending cycles, which may lead to sustained high dividend levels and potential increases in dividend yields as performance improves [11] Group 2: Investment Analysis - The refining sector is facing both opportunities and challenges, with a significant recovery potential in profitability as the competitive landscape becomes more favorable for leading companies [11] - The demand for refined oil products is expected to decline, accelerating the transition to chemical products, while the supply of olefins is slowing, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [11] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-quality private refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as state-owned refineries like Huajin Co [11] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - ByteDance's AI strategy focuses on enhancing multi-modal agent capabilities and cost advantages, aiming to optimize complex task handling and multi-modal interactions [10] - The company is leveraging its C-end business to support model training, creating a feedback loop that enhances its AI capabilities [14] - The competitive landscape in the AI cloud market shows ByteDance's Volcano Engine leading in the MaaS segment, driven by its model capabilities and competitive pricing [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, particularly focusing on ByteDance's advancements in AI technology and applications [2]. Core Insights - ByteDance's Doubao model 1.8 enhances multi-modal agent capabilities and cost efficiency, achieving state-of-the-art performance in various AI tasks [10][14]. - The introduction of the Nubia M153 AI phone marks a significant step in integrating AI with mobile technology, emphasizing the need for higher memory and bandwidth to support advanced AI functionalities [23][50]. - The report highlights the rapid user growth of ByteDance's AI applications, with Doubao reaching 170 million monthly active users and initiating monetization strategies through e-commerce integrations [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Model: Doubao 1.8 Enhancements - Doubao 1.8 focuses on improving agent capabilities, multi-modal understanding, and context management, achieving industry-leading performance in complex tasks [10][21]. - The model supports long-context management and multi-modal generation, enhancing its applicability in various scenarios [21][16]. 2. Edge AI: AI Phone Assistants and Innovative Hardware - The Nubia M153 AI phone, launched in collaboration with ZTE, features high specifications tailored for AI applications, including a Snapdragon 8 processor and 16GB RAM [23][24]. - The report discusses the competitive landscape for system-level agents, emphasizing the shift from app-driven to task-driven interactions [37][38]. - Other innovative hardware initiatives include AI toys and smart glasses, aimed at expanding ByteDance's AI ecosystem [53][55]. 3. AI Applications: User Growth and Monetization - Doubao and Jimeng have seen significant user growth, with Doubao achieving 170 million monthly active users as of September 2025 [62]. - Doubao has begun monetization efforts by integrating e-commerce functionalities within its platform, enhancing user engagement and revenue potential [62]. 4. AI Cloud: Aggressive Investment and Market Position - ByteDance's Volcano Engine leads the MaaS market with competitive pricing and robust model capabilities, although it still trails behind Alibaba Cloud in overall market share [3][4]. - The report notes the importance of maintaining model capability and pricing strategies to convert user engagement into revenue streams [3][4]. 5. Strategic Advantages and Organizational Adjustments - ByteDance's strategic focus includes leveraging its app ecosystem to enhance model training and resource allocation for AI development [3][4]. - The organizational structure is being adjusted to prioritize foundational research and the exploration of AI capabilities [3][4].

Core Insights - The articles highlight the contrasting business models of two Chinese large model companies, MiniMax and Zhipu, as they disclose their IPO prospectuses, raising the question of how large models can generate revenue [1] Business Models - MiniMax focuses on a consumer-oriented approach, emphasizing "AI Native Apps" with core products like Talkie and Xingye, which are built on large models [3] - Zhipu targets enterprise and institutional clients, building its business around MaaS and localized deployment, rather than consumer applications [10] Revenue Growth - MiniMax's AI native product revenue is projected to grow from $758,000 in 2023 to $21.8 million in 2024, and further to $38.02 million in the first three quarters of 2025, constituting over 70% of total revenue [5] - Zhipu's revenue from localized deployment reached 162 million yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 84.8% of total revenue [10] Profitability Metrics - MiniMax's gross margin improved from -24.7% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2024, and further to 23.3% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - Zhipu maintains a gross margin around 50% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with localized deployment margins nearing 60% [11] Research and Development Investment - Zhipu's R&D expenses reached 1.595 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an R&D expense ratio exceeding 800%, indicating a capital-intensive approach to gaining SOTA capabilities [13] - MiniMax's R&D expense ratio was over 2000% in 2023 but decreased to 337% by the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting improved operational leverage as revenue grows [13] Market Focus - MiniMax is highly globalized, with less than 30% of its revenue coming from mainland China, while Zhipu remains focused on the domestic market, primarily serving state-owned enterprises and large financial institutions [14][15] Capital Background - Both companies have strong backing from major investors, with MiniMax supported by Alibaba, Tencent, and Sequoia, while Zhipu has backing from Tencent, Meituan, and Ant Group, indicating potential synergies in computing power and ecosystem [16] Conclusion - The contrasting narratives of MiniMax and Zhipu present two distinct paths in the large model business landscape, with MiniMax focusing on consumer engagement and user growth, while Zhipu emphasizes enterprise-level solutions and high-margin localized deployments [17][18]

智谱带来 AI 市场估值新叙事。 文 丨 江思远 243.77 亿元，17 日通过港交所聆讯的智谱在网上公开的招股书中确认了它自己的最新估值，这也是第 一次，人们确切知道中国大模型公司的估值金额。 这是一个恰切的时间点，ChatGPT 在业界投下的震撼弹已经过去三年，经历了百模大战的喧嚣，留在 牌桌上的中国大模型选手，在证明了自己创新与技术能力不逊色于任何人之后，开始向资本市场发起 冲刺。 在 "少年走向成年" 的关键转型期，市场期待大模型公司如何向所有人论证，"新奇类、炫技型" 的模 型技术向 "实际类、适配型" 的大模型端到端落地的过程。 作为百团大战中第一家成功 "上岸" 的公司，智谱给出的回答不那么让人满意。招股书披露的亏损规模 远大于收入增长，而研发费用还在大幅增加，似乎没有要停止 "烧钱" 的趋势。 如果是一个成熟公司，这样的资产负债表实在让人难以满意，但大模型是特殊的。 智谱是中国成立最早的独立大模型公司之一，但它也只有不到 6 年历史，AI 行业让无数人兴奋的原因 是它在潜在未来的革命性，而这很难从过往的历史中直接推导出来，因为变革往往在某个时刻突然以 指数级形式发生。 这是智谱的赌注，或者可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent IPO filing of Zhipu AI, often referred to as "China's version of OpenAI," highlighting its position in the competitive landscape of large model companies in China and its financial performance amid rapid growth and significant losses [1][31]. Company Overview - Zhipu AI, founded six years ago, has gained attention for its strong backing from major investors like Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, and boasts a valuation exceeding 24 billion yuan [1]. - The company ranks second among Chinese large model manufacturers with projected revenues of 310 million yuan and a market share of 6.6% for 2024, trailing only iFlytek [2][26]. - Zhipu AI's founding team primarily comes from Tsinghua University's Knowledge Engineering Group (KEG), which has a long history in natural language processing and knowledge graph research [7]. Technological Development - Zhipu AI has been proactive in developing its technology, launching the GLM framework in 2021 and releasing the GLM-130B model in 2022, which was among the first of its kind in China [9]. - The company has introduced several models, including ChatGLM and the GLM-4 series, which competes directly with GPT-4, showcasing its ability to keep pace with industry advancements [10]. Business Model - Zhipu AI operates a "Model as a Service" (MaaS) platform, offering a variety of models for different applications, allowing clients to access capabilities via API on a pay-per-use basis [11]. - As of September 2024, the MaaS platform has attracted over 2.7 million developers and serves approximately 12,000 enterprise clients [12]. Financial Performance - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a fivefold increase from 57 million yuan in 2022 to 312 million yuan in 2024, indicating accelerating commercialization [17]. - However, Zhipu AI faces substantial financial pressures, with an adjusted net loss of 2.47 billion yuan projected for 2024 and ongoing high R&D expenditures [6][21]. - The revenue structure indicates that 85% of its income comes from localized deployments, which are high-margin but have long project cycles, while 15% comes from the MaaS platform, which is lower-margin but scalable [17][18]. Market Position - According to various reports, Zhipu AI's ranking can vary significantly based on the metrics used. It ranks second in the narrow category of large model development platforms but falls to fourth when considering broader market metrics [26][28]. - The competitive landscape includes major internet giants like Alibaba and Baidu, which have more diversified revenue streams, making direct comparisons challenging [14][27]. Conclusion - Zhipu AI's IPO filing reveals a company with strong technological capabilities and a viable business model, yet it is grappling with high losses and cash flow pressures in a fiercely competitive market [31].