金十数据7月25日讯，日本央行据悉将认为与美国的贸易协议会减少不确定性，预计到年底将有足够的 数据来权衡加息，但暂没有必要对前景做出重大改变。 市场消息：据悉日本央行看到了今年加息的潜在环境 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC economists suggest that an early trade agreement with the United States could help normalize the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, alleviating concerns about economic growth in Japan [1] Economic Outlook - HSBC anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the policy rate to 0.75% [1] - The better-than-expected economic growth this year is expected to provide the Bank of Japan with a stronger rationale for further rate hikes [1]

当地时间周四，欧洲央行宣布维持三大利率不变，符合预期。 决议公布后，市场反应整体平稳。欧元兑美元短线小幅上扬后回落，欧洲主要股指轻微波动。 目前，欧洲STOXX50指数微涨0.12%，德国DAX30指数上涨0.06%；英国富时100指数上涨0.92%；法国CAC40 指数微跌0.63%。 连续七次降息后，欧洲央行在特朗普关税威慑下"踩刹车"。 | 英国富时100 | 法国CAC40 | 德国DAX | | --- | --- | --- | | 9145.30 | 7801.32 | 24256.17 | | +83.81 +0.92% | -49.11 -0.63% | +15.35 +0.06% | | 意大利MIB | 俄罗斯MOEX | 欧洲STOXX50 | | 40523.58 | 2812.56 | 5350.53 | | -173.91 -0.43% | -28.60 -1.01% | +6.28 +0.12% [CTSTS ] | 欧央行"踩刹车" 利率决议显示，欧洲央行维持主要再融资利率在2.15%不变，维持存款机制利率在2%不变，边际贷款利率2.4% 不变，均符合市场预期。 这是去年开启 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Lagarde, did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes if trade uncertainties are resolved, indicating that easing trade tensions could alleviate uncertainty burdens on consumers and businesses, with future impacts yet to be revealed [1] Group 1 - Lagarde's response to the question about interest rate hikes suggests a cautious optimism regarding trade tensions [1] - The potential for interest rate increases is linked to the resolution of trade uncertainties, which could positively affect economic conditions [1] - The statement implies that the ECB is monitoring trade developments closely and their implications for monetary policy [1]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：不会排除转向考虑加息。 ...

凯投宏观：美欧关税协定对欧元区经济影响有限，欧央行货币政策或维持不变 三井住友银行：美日关税协议达成，潜在通胀改善或促使日本9月加息 荷兰国际集团：欧洲央行担忧欧元升值可能导致欧元走弱 【机构分析】 凯投宏观经济学家指出，即使欧盟与美国达成限制关税的贸易协定，其对欧元区经济的实际影响将是有 限的。虽然该协定能够避免贸易壁垒的破坏性升级，但相比欧洲央行基准预测所依据的经济假设，实际 效果会稍微不利一些。欧洲央行行长拉加德不太可能因此改变现有的政策立场。 Trinh Nguyen指出，菲律宾和日本与美国达成的关税协议给韩国和其他国家带来了敲定类似协议的压 力。亚洲经济体将需要适应一种新常态，即10%的关税被视为"新的零关税"。印尼和菲律宾以19%的关 税水平达成协议，为泰国和马来西亚等其他国家设定了较高的门槛。 星展银行策略师表示，由于日本自民党在参议院选举中的失利，存在增加民粹主义支出的可能性，这将 推升中长期日本国债的收益率。为了应对民众对于生活成本上升的担忧，日本央行可能需要在今年年底 前考虑加息。 （文章来源：新华财经） 三井住友银行经济学家Junya Takemoto指出，美国将日本商品的全面关税税率设 ...

Group 1 - The US and Japan have reached an agreement on tariff negotiations, reducing the US's "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan will increase imports of US rice under the current "minimum access system" [1] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, focusing on semiconductor design and manufacturing, natural gas, and new shipbuilding facilities [1] - The EU and the US are moving towards a trade agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate on most products, with EU officials pushing to include sectors like automobiles [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that the US-Japan trade agreement enhances the likelihood of Japan's economic performance aligning with the central bank's forecasts, although there is still "extremely high" uncertainty in the economy [1] - The US National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% decline in June's existing home sales, reaching an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, the lowest in nine months [2] - The median price of existing homes increased by 2% year-over-year to $435,300 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that interest rates may be raised if the economic outlook is realized, highlighting the high level of uncertainty in both domestic and international economies [1] Group 1 - The current economic situation is at a critical juncture, necessitating preparedness for both upward and downward risks [1] - Policy adjustments are required to maximize the balance of risks in the economic landscape [1]

据报道，日本央行将在加息前关注贸易谈判的影响。日本央行下周可能维持基准 利率不变；日本央行 认为选举对利率立场影响不大。 (第一财经) ...

市场消息：日本央行将在加息前关注贸易谈判的影响。 ...