Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience in June exceeded expectations, reflecting a slight improvement in export growth in Q2 compared to Q1, driven by the "expedited shipping" effect ahead of the expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption and a recovery in the global manufacturing cycle [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports were supported by short-term "rush export" demand as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariff" exemption approached on July 9 [1] - The overall export growth rate in Q2 showed a slight strengthening, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [1] Group 2: Import Trends - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in dollar terms increased by 4.5 percentage points from May to 1.1%, primarily driven by improvements in upstream imports and the "de-escalation" of tariffs between the US and China [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the "rush export" phenomenon may partially deplete demand, and the upward adjustment of US tariffs could impact imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall year-on-year export growth rate in Q3 [1] - However, the recent increase in US tariffs on the EU and Mexico may enhance the relative competitiveness of Chinese exports [1]

Group 1 - The EU has chosen to handle the new round of US tariffs with restraint, extending the suspension period for countermeasures until early August, indicating a preference for negotiation over confrontation [1][2] - The US plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on imports from various countries, including Mexico and the EU, starting August 1, which has raised concerns among European leaders about inflation and uncertainty [2][3] - Experts suggest that the EU's hesitation in negotiations stems from its limited leverage due to the intertwined economic and defense interests with the US, making it unlikely for the EU to gain significant benefits from any trade agreement [1][8] Group 2 - The EU is facing pressure from the US to reduce the trade deficit, particularly in sectors like aerospace and automotive, but the EU's ability to make concessions is constrained by strong domestic industries [4][5] - The EU's trade surplus with the US is substantial, estimated at over €190 billion in 2024, but the EU's reliance on the US market complicates its negotiating position [8][9] - The ongoing trade negotiations are influenced by broader geopolitical considerations, with the EU's defense dependency on the US limiting its willingness to adopt a confrontational stance [9][10] Group 3 - The potential for a trade agreement between the US and EU remains, but the likelihood of reaching a deal before the August 1 deadline is uncertain, and any agreement may not significantly enhance trade relations [10][11] - Experts predict that the EU may have to accept higher baseline tariffs as part of any agreement, with estimates suggesting a range of 15% to 20% for the EU [11]

当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普称，美国上月通过关税政策获得250亿美元收入，主要来自汽车、 铝、钢和木材等商品，并强调"这仅仅是个开始"。特朗普还称美国关税收入将在未来一个月内达到"强 劲水平"。不少网友对此评论称，"美国人民真的能看到这笔钱吗""支付这些关税的是美国人民"。特朗 普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高 额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂 缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起 对这些国家征收新关税。他还宣布，从8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。(央视新闻) ...

欧盟由27个国家组成，其中包括德国、法国和意大利这三大G7成员国，赋予了其相当强劲的经济实力。理论上说，欧盟有能力与美国展开经济博弈，然而 现阶段的欧盟似乎更多地表现出了一种"顺从"的姿态。即便如此，似乎欧盟的妥协并没有带来预期的好处，反而迎来美国的直接回击。最近，欧盟在数字税 问题上已对美国做出了让步，然而美国对于欧盟并未表现出任何温情，外界了解到日前，特朗普总统通过社交媒体发文，宣布将对欧盟加征高达30%的关 税。这一举动再次展示了美国在国际贸易中的强硬态度，尽管欧盟在某些方面已经让步，但美国看来并没有改变其原有的立场。 欧盟长期以来面对美国采取了一种屈从姿态，结果使美国对其不断施加压力。在美国发起关税战之际，曾多次威胁要对欧盟实施制裁，包括对进口汽车和钢 铁制品加征关税。如今美国再次宣布将加征30%的关税，法国总统马克龙对此表示强烈不满，而欧盟委员会负责人冯德莱恩也明确表态，欧盟保留实施反制 措施的权利。通过欧盟的回应，可以看出他们仍希望通过谈判来解决关税问题。然而从美国与日本的谈判情况来看，美国对于让步并不情愿，即便经历了七 轮谈判，最终也仅给予日本25%的关税待遇。 在现阶段的关税安排中，英国似乎成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the postponement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump as a strategic move, highlighting the limited trade agreements with certain economies and the inability to bear the costs of comprehensive tariff increases [1][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The new tariff standards announced by Trump show significant increases for certain countries, with Mexico and Canada facing over 30% increases, Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50%, and the EU's tariffs increasing from 20% to 30% [1][3]. - The average U.S. import tariff has risen by 5.6 percentage points to 28.9% since the initial version in April, with the most significant increases for Brazil, Canada, and Mexico [3][4]. Impact on Exports - The overall increase in U.S. import tariffs may shrink the total import "pie," potentially affecting China's export share, while higher tariffs from other countries could allow China to regain market share [4][10]. - Household appliances, light manufacturing, and electrical equipment are expected to benefit the most from the tariff changes, with a potential final tariff increase of only 10% for China [7][9]. Export Performance - China's export growth rate in June was recorded at 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from May, indicating strong export resilience [10][11]. - The increase in exports is attributed to the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, leading to a significant rebound in exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $114.77 billion in June, continuing to grow, with future attention on the potential impacts of the second round of reciprocal tariffs [24].

国银河证券|CGS 延长关税豁免期后, 东盟将会如何应对? 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 延长关税豁免期后,东盟将会如何应对? 核心观点 尽管短期内市场反应较为温和,但长期来看,我们认为美国持续加征关税的立 场强硬,区域关税的整体上浮会压缩出口及转口贸易的利润空间,豁免期结束 后,东南亚"关税洼地"的优势地位或面临较大挑战,对美出口及转口规模预 计均将有所下降。高度外向型的经济结构或将面临更为严峻的经济下行压力。 原 90 天暂缓期内发生了什么? 原定于 7 月 9 日结束的 90 天豁免期内, 东盟各 国为规避预期关税压力,对美出口呈现明显的"抢跑式出口"特征,电子器件 成为最活跃的产品类别。谈判方面,据美方信息,越南已完成对美关税协议, 但双方对协定税率或存在认知偏差,这一"乌龙"事件为东盟谈判前景增加了 不确定性。 美方阻止转口、消减逆差的谈判诉求会实现吗?我们认为以关税阻断中国转口路 径、修复美国贸易逆差、引导制造业回流缺乏现实基础与理论支撑。从全球贸 易格局来看,中国制造业已深度嵌入全球产业链体系, ...

7月14日，海关总署公布上半年我国外贸成绩单。今年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民 币，同比增长2.9%。其中，出口13万亿元，增长7.2%；进口8.79万亿元，下降2.7%。 关注1 规模站稳20万亿元台阶 上半年，我国进出口规模站稳20万亿元的台阶，达到21.79万亿元人民币，创历史同期新高，且已连续9 个季度保持在10万亿元以上。 从走势看，二季度进出口同比增长4.5%，比一季度加快3.2个百分点，连续7个季度保持同比增长。特别 是进入6月份，积极态势更加明显，进出口、出口、进口三项指标同比全部实现正增长，且增速均在回 升。 关注2 出口规模历史同期首次突破13万亿元 上半年，我国出口保持稳健增长态势，出口规模历史同期首次突破13万亿元，同比增长7.2%。民营企 业、外资企业、国有企业出口全部增长，其中民营企业出口增长8.3%，增速最快。 在工业领域，我国制造业PMI连续两个月回升，带动二季度高端机床、电子元件进口增速较一季度分别 加快13.9个和7.7个百分点。 在消费领域，市场需求回升拉动部分消费品进口增长。在消费品以旧换新等政策推动下，前5个月，我 国社会消费品零售总额同比增速较一季 ...

值得一提的是，越南与美国达成的初步协议关税为11%，但最终公布时却提升至20%。而菲律宾由于未与美国展开谈判，面临的关税直接便是20%。因此， 特朗普愿意为印度提供低于20%的关税，显然是一次巨大的妥协。 除此之外，有知情人士透露，此次临时协议中还给予了印度一个独一无二的特权，即在谈判过程中留出充足的时间，无需在8月1日之前完成协议，这使得印 度有更多的时间来解决其他问题，并计划在秋季时达成更为全面的协议。 尽管印度这个国家常常成为其他国家议论的对象，甚至受到一定程度的嘲笑，但不可否认的是，莫迪总理在外交事务上确实展现出了卓越的才能。他通过一 系列"借势击球"和"以退为进"的策略，成功促使美国在关税政策上做出了让步，甚至为印度赢得了一些其他国家无法获得的特权。 最近，金砖国家峰会在巴西如期举行。在这次峰会上，莫迪的立场与过去截然不同，展现出一种全新的外交姿态。曾几何时，印度对金砖集团推动"去美元 化"完全不置可否，而如今却表现出了积极支持的态度。这一转变让人感到惊讶。然而，峰会结束后的第二天，巴西便收到了来自美国的公开信，警告如果 巴西未能在8月1日之前与美国达成协议，将面临高达50%的关税。 在这一事件发生 ...

Group 1 - The US Treasury Secretary, Becerra, will visit Japan for the first time since taking office, coinciding with the "US National Day" event at the Osaka Expo on July 19 [2] - The US has announced a 25% tariff on all Japanese and South Korean products starting August 1, 2025, which is slightly higher than the previously announced 24% [2][3] - Japan's trade representative, Akizawa, emphasized that the automotive sector is a core issue in negotiations, stating that the 25% tariff on cars and parts has caused significant losses for Japanese companies [3] Group 2 - The Japanese government is unlikely to show signs of compromise before the Senate elections on July 20, which may delay substantial negotiations until after that date [3] - Since July 7, Trump has sent letters to over 20 countries, including Japan and South Korea, announcing the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [4] - Experts suggest that while there are significant differences in key areas like subsidies and technology transfer, there is an increasing momentum for bilateral and regional negotiations [5]

特朗普再次掀起全球政坛风暴，令各国政客压力骤增。短短一天内，白宫先后向包括韩国、日本、南非在内的14个国家发出关税威胁信，消息传出立刻引爆 国际紧张气氛。紧接着，他又迅速签署行政令，将"对等关税"的暂缓期限延长至8月1日，令局势更加扑朔迷离。 前言 2025年1月，特朗普再度踏入白宫大门，第一时间便以破纪录的速度签署了40多项行政命令，目标非常明确——彻底推翻拜登任内近80项政策遗产，彻底抹 去上一届政府的影响。文件堆积如山，旧秩序轰然崩塌。 随后，6月美国最高法院作出关键判决，宣布联邦地区法官无权发布全国性禁令，此判决堪称为特朗普量身定制，大幅拓宽了他的行政权力。 他的这套反复无常的操作手法已娴熟到让全球媒体都懒得惊讶，"不确定性"几乎成了这位总统的代名词。 这场由特朗普自编自导的政治大戏，已如连续剧般演绎了近十年。自2016年首次当选起，他一共主导了一个四年总统任期、经历过四年在野生活，如今新一 届四年任期又正式开始。 于是，一个现实的问题摆在眼前：耗费十二年青春、用尽政治资本的特朗普，真的愿意眼看"让美国再次伟大"的宏愿，最终由接班人甚至竞争对手来实现 吗？ 显然，如果他想亲手达成这个目标，剩下的四年依 ...