风险偏好看券商，利差经营看保险 20260626 摘要 明显。具体途径包括保证金、两融和 ETF，其中两融规模增加显著，而 ETF 则 被认为是聪明的钱，在震荡环境中保持了一定共振。保险方面，自 4 月份以来 保费增长有所恢复，通过分红险和健康险产品间接入市，并加大权益资产配置。 公募基金中固收加产品略有增长，但纯主动权益规模收缩明显。银行理财虽然 主要投资债券，但逐步考虑权益资产配置。 数字资产交易牌照对券商未来价值有哪些影响？ 数字资产交易牌照升级对券商未来价值具有重要影响。这一牌照允许券商进行 数字资产交易，为其业务扩展提供新机会，并可能带来新的收入来源。此外， 这种创新业务模式能够吸引更多投资者关注，提高券商在国际市场上的竞争力。 同时，也能推动整个非银金融板块的发展，使其更具弹性和活力。 4 月以来，居民存款转移至保证金、两融和 ETF，保险保费增长恢复， 通过分红险和健康险间接入市，公募基金固收加产品略有增长，银行理 财逐步考虑权益资产配置，共同支撑资本市场。 数字资产交易牌照允许券商进行数字资产交易，为其业务扩展提供新机 会，并可能带来新的收入来源，提高券商在国际市场上的竞争力，推动 整个非银金 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：尚未形成合力 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 26 日，股债跷跷板仍在晃动，不过重心略向债市倾斜。权益资产在三连涨后，迎来休整，重要股指多 数小幅下挫；债市早盘举棋不定，午后情绪修复，各期限利率一致下行。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘板块跌幅较窄，上证指数、沪深 300 分别下跌 0.22%、0.35%，中证红利指 数小幅上涨 0.03%；小微盘跌幅同样不大，中证 2000 下跌 0.18%，万得微盘股指上涨 0.25%；科技类方面，科创 50 下跌 0.57%，恒生科技下跌 0.26%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp、1.5bp 至 1.64%、 1.85%；受到收盘时间影响，30 年国债期货主力合约仅上涨 0.10%，10 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.02%。 国际商品方面，原油和黄金价格亚盘时间连续第二日反弹。随着地缘政治风险逐步降温，市场对原油关注 点部分转向供需基本面。美国能源信息署（EIA）最新数据显示，上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存全面下降 ...

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Core Viewpoint - China Great Wall Asset Management Co., Ltd. and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Deyang State-owned Assets Management Co., Ltd., plan to publicly transfer a total of 40.92% equity in Changcheng Huaxi Bank at a price of RMB 4.332 billion, marking a complete exit after 11 years of holding [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changcheng Huaxi Bank, formerly known as Deyang Bank, was established in November 1998 and is headquartered in Deyang, Sichuan Province [5]. - The bank has a registered capital of RMB 2.304 billion and employs over 1,100 staff, with a total of 55 operating institutions [5]. - As of the 2024 audit report, the bank's total assets reached RMB 151.181 billion, total liabilities were RMB 140.673 billion, and owner's equity stood at RMB 10.508 billion, with an annual operating income of RMB 2.367 billion and a net profit of RMB 450 million [5]. Group 2: Financial Details - The bank's total assets are reported at RMB 148.29 billion, with net assets of RMB 10.064 billion and an assessed value of RMB 10.567 billion for the transferred equity [6]. - The transfer price for the 40.92% equity corresponds to an assessed value of RMB 4.324 billion, with a minimum transfer price set at RMB 4.332 billion [5][6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The equity transfer is seen as a significant move for optimizing asset allocation by Great Wall Asset Management [8]. - The bank's management indicated that the new shareholders are expected to be financially strong and capable of sustaining profitability, aligning with regulatory requirements for bank shareholders [8].

Group 1: Core Views - The net interest margin (NIM) of the banking industry in China has dropped to 1.43%, which is below the average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51%, posing significant challenges for sustainable development in the banking sector [5][6][7] - The bank aims to maintain a leading position in NIM while ensuring it covers all costs and continues to create value in its asset and credit businesses [7] - The bank acknowledges past shortcomings in proactively engaging with ETF funds and plans to enhance its product offerings in the future [8][9] Group 2: Financial Investments - As of the end of the reporting period, the bank's financial investments amounted to 617.018 billion yuan, with a proportion of 16.65%, reflecting a gradual increase from previous years [3] - The increase in financial investment assets is attributed to proactive asset allocation and changes in the financing needs and market conditions [3][4] - The bank is focusing on low-risk, low-capital-consuming bonds due to the structural changes in financing and the need for stable returns [4] Group 3: Net Interest Margin - The bank's NIM was reported at 1.91% for Q1, down from 1.98% the previous year, indicating a continuing downward trend [6][7] - The bank's NIM is expected to face difficulties in returning to the 2%-3% range due to low loan yields and already low funding costs [7] - The bank is adapting to the low-interest-rate environment by accelerating its transformation in various areas, including internationalization and digitalization [7] Group 4: Fund Sales - The bank has recognized its past lack of foresight in the ETF market and is now working to correct this by expanding its range of fund products [8][9] - The bank has strengthened partnerships with leading asset management companies and improved its fund distribution capabilities [9] - Recent sales of newly launched public funds have shown promising results, indicating the bank's strong sales capabilities in the fund market [9]

6月26日周四，A股小幅低开，三大股指早盘震荡回升，军工股继续强势，固态电池概念活跃，创新药板块调整。 港股低开低走，恒指早盘跌近1%，医药股下跌，新消费三宝走低，国泰君安国际盘初一度涨90%，现涨近30%。 债市方面，国债期货集体上涨。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 3456.62 | 0.64 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 10428.64 | 34.91 | 0.34% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 2138.36 | 9.97 | 0.47% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 3961.84 | 1.78 | 0.04% | | 000016 | FJESO | | 2745.01 | -2.71 | -0.10% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | | 1219.76 | 2.67 | 0.22% | | 000688 | 科创20 | | 1001.50 | 5.89 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant influx of capital, with major indices rising over 1%, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3455.97 points [1][2] - The multi-financial sector, including brokerage and banking stocks, has performed exceptionally well, with several stocks hitting their daily limit up [1][2] - Military equipment stocks have gained traction, driven by geopolitical factors and recent military successes, with multiple stocks experiencing substantial increases [2][3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, projecting a target of 4600 points for the CSI 300 index, indicating a potential upside of approximately 10% [4] - The market sentiment has improved significantly, with trading volumes increasing, providing support for a potential rebound [4][5] - The recent policies aimed at stabilizing and activating capital markets are expected to benefit the securities sector, suggesting a positive trend for the industry [5]

Core Insights - The latest fund market data from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges shows that as of May 2025, the total number of ETFs in Shanghai is 691 with a total market value exceeding 3 trillion yuan, while Shenzhen has 483 ETFs with a total market value exceeding 1 trillion yuan, leading to a combined ETF scale of over 4.1 trillion yuan, indicating a steady increase from the previous month [1] Group 1 - The competitive landscape of the ETF business in China is dominated by traditional leading brokerages such as China Galaxy Securities and CITIC Securities, which maintain their positions in the first tier due to their comprehensive strengths [1] - There is potential for public funds to further diversify their product lines, expanding into areas such as QDII funds, commodity index funds, long-short public equity funds, and off-market REITs funds, which would help residents build a more comprehensive asset allocation portfolio [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [1] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [1]