Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to be critical, especially in the context of high market expectations for monetary easing, with various banks predicting a hawkish stance from Powell contrary to market beliefs [2][5][11]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays analysts argue that the current economic backdrop is significantly different from last year, suggesting that the market's confidence in a rate cut is misplaced [3][4]. - The current policy interest rate is 100 basis points lower compared to the same time last year, with core PCE inflation expected to accelerate above 3% [4][9]. - Despite a slowdown in employment growth, the labor market remains resilient, and consumer spending shows strength, as evidenced by upward revisions in July retail sales data [4][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market - Bank of America emphasizes that the core inflation rate remains above 3%, and the labor market's resilience provides the Fed with sufficient reasons to maintain a strong stance [9][10]. - The latest inflation data shows a year-on-year increase in core CPI to 3.1% in July, up from 2.9% in June, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Concerns about inflation are heightened by external factors such as tariffs, which are expected to impact consumer prices and inflation expectations [12]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Outlook - Nomura anticipates that Powell will hint at the possibility of policy easing but will maintain a cautious overall stance due to upcoming economic data [11]. - The Fed's ongoing policy framework review may lead to a re-evaluation of its approach to inflation and interest rates, potentially abandoning the "flexible average inflation targeting" [14]. - The political dynamics surrounding the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could also affect the integrity of future economic data, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment and inflation estimates [12].

美联储主席鲍威尔周五将在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会发表演讲，市场普遍期待他释放降息信号，但经济数 据的矛盾走势可能促使他采取谨慎立场。这场在怀俄明州的讲话虽有潜力成为政策转折点，但混乱的经 济指标使鲍威尔面临两难抉择。 尽管7月非农就业数据的疲弱为降息提供了充分理由，但PPI通胀录得三年来最大涨幅，重新点燃了关 税导致通胀压力的担忧，这一矛盾使得原本似乎确定的9月降息前景变得扑朔迷离。 在特朗普强烈施压要求降息的背景下，周五的演讲成为全市场的焦点，他们将密切关注鲍威尔对劳动力 市场和政策立场的任何微调。然而，考虑到9月会议前还有更多经济数据将公布，鲍威尔可能会选择保 持"战略模糊"。 有分析指出，周五的演讲将是鲍威尔任期于明年5月到期前在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的最后一次讲话，根 据前任主席的惯用操作，这可能赋予其告别演说的特质。特朗普对鲍威尔领导力的抨击和干预美联储独 立性的尝试，为这次讲话增添了特殊背景。 "前任主席们都有理由使用他们在杰克逊霍尔的最后演讲来反思他们的任期，"Pingle表示，"这是他们记 录自己历史的机会。" 除了利率路径，鲍威尔预计将分享美联储正在进行的政策框架评估的最新思考。现行框架源自2020 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September following concerning Producer Price Index (PPI) data, but traders remain overly optimistic about the speed and scale of the Federal Reserve's easing plans [1] - Tim Duy, Chief Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predicts a "chaotic insurance cut" in September, but Powell is unlikely to commit to further cuts, linking policy to subsequent data which introduces uncertainty for fixed income markets [1][2] - Current market pricing indicates three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Duy emphasizes that the September rate cut is not guaranteed and is contingent on upcoming data, which may frustrate market participants [2] - He notes that consumer resilience and strong retail sales data contrast with persistent inflation, which could hinder rate cuts; the median forecast for inflation in Q4 2025 is 3% [2][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year in Q4, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 3 - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in Q4 is 4.4%, lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [4] - Duy suggests that the dual mandate of the Fed complicates the likelihood of rate cuts, leading to hesitance among some board members, predicting only two cuts this year [4] - Since June of last year, the outlook for the Fed's dual mandate has deteriorated [6] Group 4 - Powell is expected to defend the Fed's independence in an upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, maintaining cautious language regarding monetary policy [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds are closely monitoring signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, particularly regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts in September [3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to assess the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy. There is a divergence among policymakers regarding when to resume rate cuts, especially given that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and signs of a slowing labor market are emerging [6][12]. Market Expectations - The bond market has returned to aggressive rate cut bets, with an approximately 85% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a 50 basis point cut in one go [7][8]. The market anticipates that Powell will align with these expectations, although he may emphasize that the decision will depend on economic data leading up to the meeting [7]. Historical Context of Powell's Speeches - Powell's speeches at Jackson Hole have historically influenced market movements. His first speech in 2018 outlined key variables facing central banks and indicated a pragmatic approach to monetary policy. Over the years, he has navigated various economic challenges, including inflation spikes and the pandemic [10][11]. Future Implications - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making process. If the report indicates weakness in the labor market, it is likely that the market will price in a 25 basis point cut, and Powell is expected not to oppose this market sentiment [8][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in U.S. inflation and a resilient labor market have led to a decline in gold prices, as market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened [1][3][4] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly above the market expectation of 2.5%, marking the largest increase in three years, which has shifted market perceptions regarding inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, indicating a tight labor market, which further supports the notion that inflationary pressures are still present [3] Group 2 - The dollar index rebounded by 0.5% after hitting a two-week low, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose from a one-week low, putting direct pressure on gold prices, which fell by 0.5% to $3,337.21 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also faced pressure, dropping by 1.3% to $37.97 per ounce, while platinum and palladium showed relative strength, increasing by 1.1% and 2% respectively, reflecting the different sensitivities of precious metals to industrial demand and investment [3] - The current gold market is characterized by a delicate balance between macroeconomic pressures and resilient economic data, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its impact on gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the aggressive stance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on monetary policy, advocating for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a 50 basis points reduction in September [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Bessent urges the Federal Reserve to abandon its gradualist approach and implement a bold rate cut, proposing a reduction of at least 1.5 percentage points from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1][3]. - President Trump supports an even more radical position, calling for rates to be lowered to nearly 1%, a level typically associated with severe economic downturns [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation reports present a mixed picture, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate overall increases, which could justify a rate cut [3][4]. - However, there are concerns about accelerating price increases in the service sector, raising questions about whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a sign of a longer-term inflation trend [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Current Challenges - Historically, the Federal Reserve has adjusted rates in 25 basis point increments to maintain stability, but larger adjustments have occurred under specific circumstances, such as the 50 basis point cut initiated in September of the previous year [4][5]. - The current economic backdrop is different, with rates nearing what officials consider a "neutral level," limiting the scope for aggressive cuts without risking inflation or asset bubbles [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market experienced a decline due to unexpected high inflation data from the U.S., impacting market expectations and leading to selling pressure on gold [1] Group 1: Market Data - On December 14, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price fell by $26.0, closing at $3,382.3 per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, surpassing June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, U.S. stock markets weakened, while the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased [1] - The report slightly reduced market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, contributing to the selling pressure in the gold market [1] Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 3,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9, bringing the total to 224,000, which was below market expectations of 228,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [1] - Following this data release, the dollar index jumped approximately 25 points, surpassing the 98 mark, while gold prices significantly declined, reaching an intraday low [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, December gold futures maintain a solid overall technical advantage for the bulls in the near term [1] - On the same day, silver futures for September delivery fell by $0.567, closing at $38.035 per ounce, a decline of 1.47% [1]

Core Views - The core consumer price index in July increased by 0.322%, aligning closely with expectations, but the details indicate a dovish stance for the core personal consumption expenditures price index [1][2] - Inflation risks are still tilted upwards, with tariff-related price pressures continuing to manifest in goods inflation, particularly as auto manufacturers transition to new model years [3][4] Economic Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, followed by further cuts in December and March of the following year, as employment data shows significant deterioration and inflation pressures are lower than previously feared [4][5] - Despite the economic growth outlook worsening since June, there are no signs of stress in the labor market or financial conditions, which reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut [5] Inflation Dynamics - The core personal consumption expenditures price index forecast for July has been revised down to a month-on-month increase of 0.243%, suggesting that both year-on-year and three-month annualized growth rates will be slightly below 2.9% [3] - The average month-on-month growth rate for the core personal consumption expenditures price index in June and July was only 25 basis points, lower than the Federal Reserve's June economic forecast of 3.1% for year-end [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocates for a bold action from the Federal Reserve, suggesting a 50 basis point rate cut in September, followed by further reductions to significantly lower borrowing costs from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1][2] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate overall increase, providing a rationale for a potential rate cut, but rising service sector prices raised concerns about whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a more troubling trend [2][6] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, experienced its largest monthly increase since the beginning of the year, driven by rising service sector costs, which increased by 3.1% year-over-year [6][7] - Despite the overall inflation rate stabilizing at 2.7%, the significant rise in service prices, including a notable increase in dental services, has led economists to question the sustainability of this trend [6][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Divergence - There is a sharp division among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policy, making consensus difficult without clear evidence of a severe economic downturn [3][4] - The decision to maintain rates in July was one of the most controversial in decades, with two members voting against it in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting the impact of tariffs and labor market conditions on inflation [3][4] - Some officials, like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have begun to support a return to rate cuts due to rising labor market risks and lower-than-expected inflation [4][5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a recent poor employment report prompting more officials to advocate for rate cuts, despite some caution regarding inflation [4][5] - The definition of a "weak labor market" has evolved, with recent slowdowns in job growth potentially reflecting reduced labor supply rather than decreased demand [7][8] - Concerns have been raised that cutting rates in a structurally changing labor market could exacerbate inflationary pressures, as the economy may lack capacity due to labor shortages [8]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 由于利率制定委员会对其下一步行动仍存在分歧，美联储主席鲍威尔很可能会打压投资者日益增长的9 月降息预期。 最新就业报告的修正数据显示薪资增长疲软，加上通胀并未如预期般快速上升，这已让市场参与者相 信，鲍威尔无法再推迟降息。来自白宫和财政部长贝森特的持续压力更是加剧了这一局面。 今年以来，美联储一直维持利率稳定，担心更高的通胀会出现。 根据亚特兰大联储的数据，市场目前认为12月降息25个基点的可能性为65%，降息50个基点的可能性为 15%。 但专家表示，鲍威尔可能会试图为这些预期降温。这位美联储主席不希望市场认为降息已是板上钉钉。 美国银行证券前首席经济学家Ethan Harris表示，如果市场在9月16-17日美联储会议前就完全消化了降息 预期，那么央行将很难决定维持利率不变。 他说，美联储不喜欢给市场带来意外。 摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济策略师Ellen Zentner说，"现在最值得关注的是……美联储官员是否会反驳 市场预期，"届时预计不支持9月降息的美联储官员也将公开发表讲话。"如果他们认为市场错了，他们 会站出来发声，因为引导市场预期是他们的 ...