□ 长期来看，消费还有很大提升空间，但也要客观看待提振消费的难度。影响消费的因素分为消 费能力和消费意愿两大类：影响消费能力的因素主要有收入、资产和债务；影响消费意愿的因素 包括对经济和未来收入的预期、社会保障体系完善程度，以及是否有消费时间等。其中消费能力 是能否提振消费的关键因素，故要想方设法增加中低收入者（边际消费倾向强）的收入和福利水 平 □ 《提振消费专项行动方案》总的政策思路是以增收减负提升消费能力，以高质量供给创造有效 需求，以优化消费环境增强消费意愿，并部署八方面30项重点任务。前七部分部署具体实施的七 大行动，第八部分进一步强调了完善投资、财政、信贷、统计等各项支持政策。文件覆盖面非常 广，涵盖了如何应对各类压制消费的因素 □ 考虑到消费对于经济平稳运行的重要性，接下来可做好五方面工作，以进一步夯实消费在稳经 济中的基石作用：一是更大力度增加财政对公共消费的投入；二是平衡好"以旧换新"和对特定群 体的现金补助；三是切实做好中低收入人群的收入合理增长工作；四是针对已毕业但尚未找到工 作的大中专毕业生，给予适当的生活补助；五是对个人消费贷款财政贴息的同时，加强资金用途 的监测 □ 当前，世界百年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of various government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the economy, particularly through wage adjustments, infrastructure projects, and support for families and small businesses. Group 1: Wage and Employment Policies - The existing minimum wage adjustment mechanism will be improved, with a goal for all provinces to adjust their minimum wage standards by 2025, potentially leading to a faster annual compound growth rate [1][10][11] - In 2024, the "work for relief" policy is expected to absorb 3.32 million jobs and distribute labor remuneration of 47.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 31% and 32% respectively [2][12] Group 2: Housing and Financial Policies - There is a plan to lower housing provident fund loan rates and expand its usage, which is seen as crucial for stabilizing the real estate market and consumer spending [3][13] - The government aims to expedite the payment of debts owed to small and micro enterprises, which is vital for improving cash flow and ultimately boosting consumer spending [4][14] Group 3: Family and Childcare Support - The establishment of a childcare subsidy system is being actively pursued, with potential impacts on consumer spending estimated to increase by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [5][15] - Policies encouraging local exploration of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools are expected to enhance family travel and consumption, potentially generating an additional 30.7 to 76.7 billion yuan in tourism revenue [6][16] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The shift from purchase management to usage management in the automotive sector is anticipated to alleviate supply constraints and stimulate retail sales [7][17] - The implementation of pediatric service initiatives and support for elderly care services is expected to address key demographic challenges and enhance consumer spending capacity [8][18] Group 5: Infrastructure and Urban Development - The promotion of elevator installations in multi-story buildings is part of a broader urban renewal strategy, which will benefit elderly and mobility-impaired populations [9][19] - The use of fiscal subsidies and loan interest discounts is aimed at integrating consumer promotion with social welfare, enhancing consumer confidence and spending [10][20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the consumption sector, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the industry based on expected performance relative to benchmarks [19]. Core Insights - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" is a comprehensive initiative aimed at enhancing consumer spending through various measures, including income support and targeted subsidies [2][5]. - The implementation of policies such as "trade-in" incentives is expected to significantly boost retail sales growth, particularly in the second quarter of 2025 [2][4]. - The effectiveness of these policies largely depends on the acceleration of income growth and improvements in future income expectations related to asset prices [2]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The government is focusing on a multi-faceted approach to stimulate consumption, involving various departments and a range of financial incentives [2][5]. - The "trade-in" policy is projected to increase annual retail sales growth by approximately 1 percentage point, with a total subsidy of 1,500 billion yuan expected to generate 1.3 trillion yuan in sales [4]. Policy Measures - Specific measures include lowering housing provident fund loan rates and providing interest subsidies on consumer loans, which are anticipated to improve residents' cash flow [4]. - The plan also emphasizes stabilizing asset prices in the housing and stock markets to enhance future income expectations for residents [4]. Consumer Support - The report highlights the importance of increasing support for childbirth and childcare, with various regions already implementing substantial subsidies [7]. - Employment support measures are also being enhanced, with a budget of 667.4 billion yuan allocated for employment assistance in 2025 [8]. Supply-Side Initiatives - The plan aims to stimulate effective demand through high-quality supply, focusing on optimizing service consumption and developing new consumption scenarios [5]. - There is a push for innovation in consumption, including the integration of artificial intelligence and the expansion of digital and green consumption [5].

证券研究报告 育儿补贴政策催化，关注乳品估值修复 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 17 日 ——食品饮料行业周报 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230520050001 邮箱：wangf@hlzq.com 周报》2025.03.05 《促消费政策积极，关注需求修复边际 改善—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.17 《春节旺季消费边际改善，白酒动销符 合预期—食品饮料行业周报》2025.02.11 华龙证券研究所 摘要： 2025.3.3-2025.3.14 申万食品饮料板块上涨 6.98%，跑赢上证指数 4.01pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第六位，涨幅居前。"两会" 政府工作报告提出，2025 年政府工作任务要大力提振消费，全方位 扩大国内需求。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济 增长的主动力和稳定锚。3 月 17 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公 厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地区各部门认真贯彻落实。 我们认为在扩大内需，提振消费的积极政策导向下，食品饮料板块有 望迎来好转，我们维持行业"推荐"评级。 分析师：王芳 白酒：2025.3.3-2 ...

点击上图 ▲立即预约 1至2月社零总额同比增长4% 3月17日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—2月份，社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4%，比上年全年加快0.5%。其中，除汽车以外的消 费品零售额76838亿元，增长4.8%。从环比看，2月份社会消费品零售总额比上月增长0.35%。1—2月份，服务零售额同比增长4.9%。 按消费类型分，1—2月份，商品零售额73939亿元，同比增长3.9%；餐饮收入9792亿元，增长4.3%。按零售业态分，1—2月份，限额以上零售 业单位中便利店、专业店、超市、百货店零售额同比分别增长9.8%、5.4%、4.0%、0.4%；品牌专卖店零售额下降0.8%。（国家统计局） ｜点评｜ 在春节的加持下，1—2月社零数据表现优于去年全年，但和去年同期相比增速略有放缓。以旧换新政策加码，居民置换手机、家具家 电等大件商品的意愿有所提升，前期积压的潜在需求继续释放。不过，在日常消费上，居民的支出意愿仍不算强，即便在春节期间餐饮店总体表 现依旧算不上火爆。 现阶段消费端的修复仅局限在部分领域，总体力度并不算强。提振消费已经被各部门提上日程，近期也能陆续看到新政策发布。政策效果的释放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the Chinese government's commitment to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a top priority for the year, highlighted by the recent release of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" which aims to enhance consumer spending through various innovative measures [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" is a collaborative effort from both the Central and State Councils, marking a significant elevation in policy issuance compared to previous years where policies were primarily released by the State Council [1] - This year's plan includes over 10 additional policy measures compared to previous years, indicating a robust commitment to stimulating consumption [1] - The plan shifts focus from supply-side policies to a more balanced approach that emphasizes both supply and demand, aiming for comprehensive engagement in consumption stimulation [1] Group 2: Key Initiatives - The plan introduces several first-time initiatives, including measures to stabilize the stock and real estate markets, the establishment of a childcare subsidy system, and the promotion of new technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and robotics [1][2] - Financial support for trade-in programs has increased from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan, and employment support funding is set at 66.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant increase in fiscal commitment [1] - The plan outlines three main strategies: enhancing consumer capacity, addressing consumption barriers, and exploring new consumption growth points [1][2] Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The plan emphasizes "increasing income and reducing burdens," proposing measures to promote reasonable growth in wage income and adjust minimum wage standards [2] - It aims to alleviate family burdens related to childbirth, education, healthcare, and elderly care, with a particular focus on the highly anticipated childcare subsidy [2] Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The plan includes measures to gradually reduce consumption restrictions, facilitating car purchases for families without vehicles and addressing housing needs by expanding the use of housing provident funds and potentially lowering loan interest rates [2] Group 5: New Consumption Growth Points - The plan outlines initiatives to promote trade-in programs for consumer goods, enhance service quality through both domestic and international openings, and innovate in new consumption models such as "AI + consumption" and "IP + consumption" [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption," which aims to enhance domestic demand and improve consumer spending through various policies and initiatives. Group 1: Overview of the Action Plan - The plan focuses on comprehensive efforts from both supply and demand sides to stimulate consumption, emphasizing the need for policies that promote income growth and reduce burdens on residents [3] - It aims to integrate consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods, proposing tangible financial measures to support daily needs [3] - The plan highlights the importance of policy coordination across various sectors, including finance, taxation, and investment, to create a unified approach to boosting consumption [3] Group 2: Specific Policies and Initiatives - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been reinforced with a budget of 300 billion yuan allocated for its implementation, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of this initiative [5] - The plan includes measures to optimize consumer services, prevent policy risks, streamline recycling processes, and enhance promotional efforts [5] - Specific support policies include increasing employment opportunities, improving basic medical and pension insurance, and enhancing educational support to boost consumer capacity [9][10] Group 3: Financial Policies to Support Consumption - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for consumption expansion [13] - Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop targeted financial products to meet diverse consumer needs, particularly in new consumption areas [14] - The plan aims to broaden the funding sources for financial institutions to enhance capital supply in the consumption sector [15] Group 4: Enhancing Consumer Rights and Environment - The market supervision authority emphasizes the need for market vitality and strict regulatory enforcement to ensure safe and informed consumer experiences [7] - The plan includes actions to improve consumer rights protection, making it easier for consumers to seek redress [7][26] - There is a focus on creating a trustworthy consumption environment through improved quality standards and consumer rights mechanisms [26][27] Group 5: Infrastructure and Facility Improvements - The plan aims to enhance urban and rural consumption facilities, including logistics and service points, to support consumer needs [27] - It encourages the development of smart business districts and immersive experience spaces to modernize traditional retail environments [27] Group 6: Policy Coordination and Support - The plan stresses the importance of coordinated policies across various sectors to create a supportive environment for consumption [29] - It highlights the need for investment in consumption-related infrastructure and services to stimulate economic growth [30] - Financial support mechanisms will be enhanced to facilitate consumer loans and improve access to credit for consumers [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's initiatives to boost consumption through various financial and policy measures, emphasizing the importance of consumer confidence and spending in driving economic growth. Group 1: Financial Support and Policy Measures - In 2025, the central government will allocate 667.4 billion yuan for employment support to promote job creation and entrepreneurship [2] - The central government plans to provide financial incentives to international consumption center cities to enhance inbound consumption [3] - The central government intends to guide credit resources to support stable development in the consumption market through fiscal interest subsidies [4] - The People's Bank of China is researching new structural monetary policy tools to increase low-cost funding support for key consumption areas [5] - A specialized document for financial support to expand consumption will be developed, enhancing coordination between financial, fiscal, and industrial policies [6] Group 2: Consumer Environment and Market Initiatives - The government will conduct pilot reforms in the automotive circulation sector to promote efficient second-hand car transactions and develop the automotive aftermarket [8] - Multiple departments are actively planning policies to promote consumption, including initiatives from the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism [9] - The government aims to create a favorable consumption environment through a three-year action plan to optimize consumer confidence and demand [25][26] Group 3: Specific Consumption Policies - The "Consumption Upgrade Action Plan" includes 30 policy measures focusing on increasing residents' income and improving the consumption environment [14] - The government will support the recycling of consumer goods through a "trade-in" program, with funding for this program increasing to 3000 billion yuan in 2025 [20][22] - The government emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption, particularly in health, elderly care, and childcare services [47][49] Group 4: Employment and Income Support - The central government will implement policies to support employment, including a focus on skill training and job stability for key groups [29][33] - The government plans to increase basic pension and medical insurance levels to improve residents' financial security [30] Group 5: Consumption Trends and Market Growth - The article highlights the growth in service consumption, with a reported 6.2% increase in service retail sales year-on-year [48] - The government is promoting new consumption models and scenarios, including the integration of technology and consumer experiences [56][60]

国务院新闻办公室于2 0 2 5年3月1 7日（星期一）下午3时举行新闻发布会，请国家发展改革委 副主任李春临和财政部、人力资源社会保障部、商务部、中国人民银行、市场监管总局有关负 责人介绍提振消费有关情况，并答记者问。 要点如下↓ 国家发改委：解决"加班文化"等痛点，不得违法延长劳动者工作时间 李春临表示，相信随着方案的落实落地，我国消费市场能有更强劲的增长势头，更优质的消费 供给，也能给大家的生活带来更多的提升和便利。 国家发改委：正积极加紧制定育儿补贴、劳动工资等政策 李春临表示，《提振消费专项行动方案》是一份牵头管总的综合性文件，每一个部门都要抓好 贯彻落实，后续落实需要各部门综合发力。有关育儿补贴、劳动工资等政策，相关职能部门正 在积极加紧制定，后续会陆续出台。行动方案发布后，还会有若干部门的专项工作方案，各项 政策将进一步细化实化。 国家发改委：促消费文件首提稳股市、稳楼市，努力让老百姓消费底气更足 国家发展改革委副主任李春临表示，《提振消费专项行动方案》首次在促消费文件中强调稳股 市、稳楼市，并提出相应举措，努力让老百姓的消费底气更足，预期更稳，信心更强。 李春临表示，《方案》在起草过程中，聚焦 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing income for urban and rural residents as a primary action plan, proposing measures such as promoting wage growth and expanding channels for property income [4][7][9] - It highlights the need for enhanced support in fertility, education, and pension security, including initiatives like childcare subsidies and improved educational resources [4][7][9] - The development of service consumption is a key focus, with specific measures aimed at optimizing services for the elderly and children, promoting lifestyle services, and expanding cultural and tourism consumption [4][7][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the proposal includes unexpected mentions of stabilizing the stock market and expanding property income channels, reflecting a higher policy emphasis on the capital market [4][9][12] - It also introduces support for the gaming and esports sectors, encouraging the development of original intellectual property and related consumer products [4][9][12] Group 3 - The market impact is viewed positively, with expectations that the proposal may boost consumer spending growth and corporate profit forecasts [4][12][13] - The report suggests that the policy could facilitate increased inflows of foreign and long-term capital into the A-share market, enhancing market sentiment [4][12][13] - Specific industries such as fertility, education, cultural services, and new consumption models are identified as potential beneficiaries of the proposed measures [4][12][13]