Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that a well-known institution has highlighted the increasing pressure of global oilseed production, suggesting that the price of palm oil may reach a short-term peak at 4300 [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of abundant oilseed supply, which could impact market dynamics and pricing strategies for palm oil [1] - The mention of potential price ceilings suggests a cautious outlook for short-term investments in palm oil [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in polysilicon prices, which increased by over 7% during trading, reaching a new historical high. The piece questions whether this price movement is driven by policy changes or fundamental market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon prices have shown significant volatility, with the latest increase marking a new record high, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - The article suggests that the driving forces behind this price surge need to be analyzed, focusing on whether it is a result of government policies or underlying market fundamentals [1]

期货热点追踪 累计涨幅已超50%，持续刷新年内新高！"疯狂的焦煤"还能涨多久？点击了解。 相关链接 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 沥青：震荡反复 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,678 | 0.11% | 3,638 | -1.09% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,657 | 0.05% | 3,615 | -1.15% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,750 | 379 | 6,308 | (1,060) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 141,580 | (15,006) | 223,360 | (4,713) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, which may lead to pests and diseases and requires early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Data Overview 3.1.1 Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 16.79, and on July 21, 2025, it was 16.36, with a decline of 2.56% [3]. - US cotton (USD): On July 20, 2025, it was 68.76, and on July 21, 2025, it was 68.09, with a decline of 0.97% [3]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): On July 18, 2025, it was 6050.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 6060.0, with an increase of 0.17% [3]. - Sugar (Kunming): On July 18, 2025, it was 5920.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 5920.0, with no change [3]. - Cotton Index 328: On July 18, 2025, it was 3281, and on July 21, 2025, it was 3280, with a decline of 0.52% [3]. - Cotton (Xinjiang): On July 18, 2025, it was 15300.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 15400.0, with an increase of 0.65% [3]. 3.1.3 Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 59.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 54.0, with a decline of 8.47% [3]. - SR05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 229.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 223.0, with a decline of 2.62% [3]. - SR09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 170.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 169.0, with a decline of 0.59% [3]. - CF01 - 05: On July 20, 2025, it was 50.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 45.0, with a decline of 10.00% [3]. - CF05 - 09: On July 20, 2025, it was - 355.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was - 240.0, with a decline of 32.39% [3]. - CF09 - 01: On July 20, 2025, it was 305.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 195.0, with a decline of 36.07% [3]. - Sugar 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 264.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 250.0, with a decline of 5.30% [3]. - Sugar 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 323.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 304.0, with a decline of 5.88% [3]. - Sugar 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 94.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 81.0, with a decline of 13.83% [3]. - Cotton 01 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1543.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1599.0, with an increase of 3.63% [3]. - Cotton 05 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1593.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1644.0, with an increase of 3.20% [3]. - Cotton 09 basis: On July 20, 2025, it was 1238.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1404.0, with an increase of 13.41% [3]. 3.1.4 Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: On July 18, 2025, it was 79.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 79.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.5 Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: On July 18, 2025, it was 1506.5, and on July 21, 2025, it was 1506.5, with no change [3]. 3.1.6 Options - SR509C5800: Implied volatility is 0.0791, and the futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.02 [3]. - SR509P5800: Implied volatility is 0.0806 [3]. - CF509C14200: Implied volatility is 0.1252, and the futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 9.03 [3]. - CF509P14200: Implied volatility is 0.1226 [3]. 3.1.7 Warehouse Receipts (sheets) - Sugar: On July 18, 2025, it was 21477.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 21437.0, with a decline of 0.19% [3]. - Cotton: On July 18, 2025, it was 9532.0, and on July 21, 2025, it was 9501.0, with a decline of 0.33% [3]. 3. Company Information - The company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships and observer statuses in multiple exchanges and associations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The long-awaited speculative opportunity for bulls has finally arrived due to lower-than-expected quality ratings for U.S. soybeans and drought conditions in certain regions [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean quality ratings have fallen below market expectations, indicating potential supply issues [1] - Certain areas are experiencing drought, which could further impact soybean yields and prices [1]

软商品日报 2025/07/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

天然与合成橡胶日评20250721: 天然橡胶震荡偏强 合成橡胶震荡偏强 | HONGYUAN FUTURES | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-18 | 2025-07-17 | 收盘价 | 14810 | 14405 | 14665 | 145.00 ~ | | | | | 成交量(手) | 69,268.00 VV V | 天然橡胶 | 471429 | 402161 | 461226 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 217638 | 219169 | 216558 | -1.531.00 ~ V V ~~~~~ | | | | 注册仓单量 | 186980 | 188740 | -340.00 | 186640 | 天然橡胶基差 | -130 | 15 | -140 | 155.00 -VV | | | | | | ...

焦煤盘中大涨再创阶段新高，空头为何屡屡"翻车"？焦企发起焦炭第二轮提涨，能否助力焦煤突破1000 关口？点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

一则突发消息提振市场情绪，工业硅早盘逼近涨停！后市会怎么走？点击了解。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...