南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 17.9% | 13.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无 相关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses confidence in the supercapacitor business, highlighting its broad application opportunities in automotive electronics, new power systems, AI, and data centers [1] Group 1 - The company has deepened its understanding of supercapacitors, effectively expanding its capability and business boundaries [1] - The supercapacitor is recognized as an important energy storage component with significant potential in various industries [1]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term copper prices needing to consolidate after hitting the $11,000/ton resistance level. The overall strategy is to go long on dips [2][4][67]. - The copper market is facing a situation of tight supply and increasing demand. Supply is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is driven by emerging sectors like AI, new energy, and storage [2][53][67]. - The copper - gold ratio is at a historical extreme level. Historically, its rebound is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices without a systemic crisis [2][65]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Mine - end Disturbances Increase, and Supply Remains Tight - **2025 Copper Mine Supply Increment Drops Sharply**: In 2025, the expected increment of copper mine supply has dropped to 50,000 tons, far lower than the 640,000 - ton increment in 2024, due to factors like increased mine - end accidents, aging of traditional mines, insufficient capital expenditure of mining enterprises, and increased maintenance costs. Many major mining companies have lowered their production targets [5][6]. - **Limited Expected Increment of Copper Mines in 2026**: The expected increment of copper mines in 2026 is about 560,000 tons, but the actual increment may be less than 200,000 tons due to uncertainties such as the Peruvian general election, strike risks, the resumption of production of Cobre Panama, and the resumption progress of Kamoa [10][11]. - **Long - term Insufficient Capital Expenditure in Copper Mines**: Copper prices usually lead capital expenditure by 1 - 2 years. The capital expenditure of copper mining enterprises has not fully recovered to previous high levels. The capital expenditure growth rate leads the copper mine supply growth rate by 5 - 8 years. After a short - term increase in copper mine supply from 2027 - 2028, there will be a long - term low - growth period [13][18]. Part 2: The Growth Rate of Refined Copper Production Slows Down, and Global Supply Mismatches - **Faster Transmission from Mine - end to Smelting End**: In 2026, with insufficient copper mine increments, processing fees may remain low, and the transmission from the mine - end to the smelting end will be faster. Many smelters face risks of production reduction or suspension [21]. - **Continuous Export of South American Copper to the United States**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, South American copper still gives priority to exporting to the United States, resulting in tight supply in non - US regions. There are opportunities for inter - period positive spreads, and the BACK structure is beneficial to long positions and can support prices [24][32]. Part 3: Emerging Consumption Shows Bright Spots - **Rapid Development of AI**: AI development depends on data center computing power. The copper consumption of data centers is concentrated in power distribution equipment, cables, and cooling systems. The global data center capacity is growing rapidly, which will drive copper consumption, and related grid upgrades and energy storage equipment will also increase copper demand [34][35][36]. - **Lithium - ion Copper Foil Consumption Led by Energy Storage Batteries**: The global copper foil capacity is growing, with lithium - ion copper foil having a relatively high growth rate. Energy storage batteries are growing rapidly, and relevant national plans also indicate a large increment space [41]. - **Population Growth and Increased Military Expenditure**: Although China and the United States may face a decline in copper consumption, global population growth and increased military expenditure will drive up copper demand [49][50]. Part 4: Enhanced Financial Attributes - The copper - gold ratio is an important indicator for measuring economic cycle changes. Currently, the copper - gold ratio has reached a historical low, mainly due to gold price increases. Historically, the rebound of the copper - gold ratio is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices [55][59][65]. Part 5: Strategy Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy as the long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged [4][67]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider inter - market and inter - period positive spreads [4][67]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company aims for a 25% growth in orders for the year, with confidence in meeting its annual targets despite challenges [1] Order Completion and Growth - As of September, the order completion is on track with most business orders showing growth [1] - Domestic orders are stable, while overseas orders are growing at a faster rate [4] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 13.827 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.86%, and a net profit of 2.191 billion yuan, up 46.94% [14] - The gross margin stands at 32.32%, with stable material prices contributing to this [14][3] Future Expectations - The company maintains a positive outlook on gross margin due to scale effects, although depreciation from completed projects may negatively impact it [3] - New product development is ongoing, but its impact on total revenue is currently minimal [8] International Orders - The average fulfillment cycle for overseas orders is longer compared to domestic orders [2] - The company has seen an increase in overseas EPC orders, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa [12] R&D and Innovation - The company is increasing R&D investments to drive innovation and enhance core competitiveness [10] - Collaboration with the Huairou Laboratory aims to advance IGCT technology and market applications [7] Financial Metrics - The company’s liabilities ratio is at 45.94%, with investment income reported at 32.73 million yuan [14] - Recent institutional ratings show 14 buy ratings and 1 hold rating, with an average target price of 127.52 yuan [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company has experienced strong growth in both production and sales, with a significant increase in capacity expansion [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 441.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 21.99% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 68.6 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 35.10% [2] - The company is entering a new round of capacity expansion, with plans to increase production capacity significantly in the coming years [6] Financial Performance Forecast - Revenue (in million yuan) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 362,013 - 2025: 441,613 - 2026: 511,267 - 2027: 582,252 [2] - Net profit (in million yuan) is projected as follows: - 2024: 50,745 - 2025: 68,554 - 2026: 80,152 - 2027: 94,115 [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.44% in 2024 to 26.05% in 2027 [2] Production and Sales Insights - The company achieved a production of over 490 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in demand driven by stable growth in power and unexpected surges in energy storage [6] - The company’s production in Q3 2025 was nearly 190 GWh, marking a 20% increase from the previous quarter [6] - The sales structure remains stable, with a domestic to international sales ratio of approximately 7:3 [6] Capacity Expansion Plans - The company is initiating a new capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add over 100 GWh of energy storage capacity by the end of 2025 [6] - New facilities are being established in Hungary and Spain, with an Indonesian project expected to commence production in the first half of 2026 [6] Profitability Outlook - The company’s profitability is expected to remain stable, with a projected EPS of 15.02 yuan in 2025 and 17.57 yuan in 2026 [2] - The report anticipates that the company’s net profit margin will improve from 14.9% in 2024 to 17.2% in 2027 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hemaik Electric Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 1.38% on October 22, with a trading volume of 67.51 million yuan and a total market capitalization of 13.09 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Hemaik Electric Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of photovoltaic inverters, energy storage products, and electrical equipment [2][7] - The company's main products include micro-inverters, monitoring equipment, distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, modular inverters, and energy storage systems [2][7] - The company has been recognized as a "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" small giant enterprise, indicating its strong market position and innovation capabilities [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hemaik reported a revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 91.33% to 16.27 million yuan [8] - As of June 30, the number of shareholders decreased by 5.73% to 9,849, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.08% to 12,597 shares [8] Market Dynamics - The company benefits from a significant overseas revenue share of 64.25%, aided by the depreciation of the RMB [3] - On March 5, 2025, Hangkai Holdings Group announced plans to increase its stake in Hemaik, with an investment ranging from 111.5 million yuan to 223 million yuan, supported by a special loan from China CITIC Bank [3] Technical Analysis - The average trading cost of Hemaik's shares is 111.66 yuan, with recent reductions in holdings slowing down [6] - The current stock price is near a support level of 105.37 yuan, which is critical for potential rebounds [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$618.00 based on a current price of HK$544.00 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational gains and is effectively seizing opportunities in the energy storage sector, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025 [3][4][11]. - The company is committed to technological innovation, launching several new products across various sectors, which are expected to enhance its market position [5][14]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth and improving profitability metrics over the next few years [15]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached RMB 283.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 49.0 billion, up 36.2% [3][11]. - The company achieved a net profit margin of 19.1% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 4.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, supported by effective expense management [12]. - Cash reserves were robust, exceeding RMB 360 billion at the end of Q3 2025, indicating strong liquidity [12]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company shipped approximately 450 GWh of power and energy storage batteries in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in shipments in Q3 [4][13]. - The energy storage segment accounted for about 20% of total shipments, benefiting from rising demand driven by AI data centers and supportive domestic policies [4][13]. - The company is increasing its focus on commercial vehicle batteries, with heavy-duty truck battery shipments growing over 100% [4][13]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 425.5 billion, RMB 509.3 billion, and RMB 584.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 68.2 billion, RMB 86.1 billion, and RMB 103.5 billion [15]. - Given its leading position in the global battery market and continuous product innovation, a P/E ratio of 30x is assigned for 2026, resulting in a target market capitalization of RMB 2,583 billion [15].

Group 1: Company Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 13.827 billion CNY, aligning with phase expectations [2] - The overall business scale has expanded, with some segments experiencing rapid growth, leading to increased inventory and temporary cash flow pressure [2] Group 2: Order Completion and Growth - The company aims for a 25% growth in total orders for the year, with order completion as of September meeting phase targets [2][3] - Domestic and overseas order fulfillment rates remain stable, with overseas orders having a longer average fulfillment cycle [4] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin is expected to be maintained due to scale effects, with stable material prices this year [5] - The completion of ongoing projects will lead to depreciation costs, which may negatively impact gross margins [5] Group 4: New Orders and Market Segments - Overseas orders are growing faster than the average, while domestic orders in systems, new energy, and energy storage are meeting expectations [6] - The company is confident in the potential of supercapacitors in various applications, including automotive electronics and AI [7] Group 5: Financial Performance and Future Projections - Significant changes in other income for Q3 are attributed to the timing of government subsidies [8] - The company is in collaboration with the Huairou Laboratory to establish a joint venture for IGCT technology, aiming for innovation and market expansion [9] - New products are expected to have a minimal impact on total revenue in the near term [10] - Revenue targets for 2026 have not yet been determined, but the company is committed to continuous growth [11] Group 6: Expense Management - R&D expenses will continue to increase to drive innovation and core competitiveness [12] - Marketing expenses are rising due to market expansion efforts, while management expenses will be controlled [12] - The proportion of overseas revenue to total revenue has not shown significant fluctuations [13]

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，宁德时代(03750)第三季度业绩略胜预期，净利润按季升12%至 185亿元人民币，较去年同期升41%。首九个月净利润490亿元人民币，为全年市场预期670亿元人民币 73%，意味第四季净利润预期仅180亿元人民币。鉴于第四季通常受季节性因素影响而优于第三季，预 期市场将温和上调盈测。该行又指，由于宁德时代股价已超越目标价，因此把该股纳入检讨。该行此前 予该股目标价为495港元及"买入"评级。 该行亦引述管理层指，电动车及储能系统电池需求强劲，并预期势头将延续至明年。主要需求驱动因素 包括每辆车电池安装量增加、电动重型卡车销量快速增长及国内外储能项目利用率和盈利能力改善。公 司又指，匈牙利工厂第一阶段已在测试设备，重申年底完成建设目标。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanliyang's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 60.98%, but a recent decline of 5.85% over the last five trading days, indicating potential market fluctuations and investor sentiment shifts [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Wanliyang achieved a revenue of 2.812 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 277 million yuan, marking a substantial increase of 50.24% [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Wanliyang has distributed a total of 2.079 billion yuan in dividends, with 525 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Wanliyang decreased by 8.48% to 39,300, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 9.26% to 33,356 shares [2]. - The stock's trading activity showed a net outflow of 7.816 million yuan from major funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1]. Company Overview - Wanliyang, established in October 2003 and listed in June 2010, is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of automotive transmissions and other automotive components, with 89.64% of its revenue derived from this core business [1]. - The company operates within the automotive industry, specifically in the automotive parts sector, and is involved in various concept sectors including energy storage and new energy vehicles [1].