周二（6月3日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.39个基点，报4.4537%，日内交投于 4.4043%-4.4716%区间，整体呈现出V形反转，北京时间22:00发布美联储青睐的职位空缺就业指标后持 续反弹。 两年期美债收益率涨1.45个基点，报3.9511%，日内交投于3.9098%-3.9696%区间，职位空缺数据发布后 出现一波显著的拉升。 ...

Group 1 - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 2.525%, trading within a range of 2.485%-2.528% during the day [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 1.786%, with a trading range of 1.766%-1.789% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.017%, showing a similar trend to the 10-year bond yield [1] Group 2 - The 2/10-year German bond yield spread increased by 0.368 basis points to +73.641 basis points, mirroring the trends of medium to long-term German bond yields [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 4.638%, experiencing a low of 4.599% earlier in the day [1]

| | 美国2年期国债收益率 | 3.920 | -0.025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | -0.63% | | | 美国5年期国债收益率 | 3.986 | -0.033 | | | | | -0.82% | | | 美国10年期国债收益率 | 4.420 | -0.041 | | | | | -0.92% | | | 美国30年期国债收益率 | 4.950 | -0.045 | | | | | -0.90% | | ব | 英国10年期国债收益率 | 4.624 | -0.051 | | | | | -1.09% | | | 德国10年期国债收益率 | 2.506 | -0.017 | | | | | -0.67% | | 法国10年期国债收益率 | 3.173 | -0.013 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | -0.41% | | 意大利10年期国债收益率 | 3.494 | -0.017 | | | | -0.48% | | 日本10年期国债收益率 | 1.488 | -0.022 | | | | -1.46% | @ JIN10.C ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]

Group 1 - The demand for Japan's 10-year government bonds has unexpectedly strengthened, providing a boost to the recently volatile bond market, with a key demand indicator reaching a new high since April 2024 [1] - The 10-year government bond futures rose slightly to 139.14 yen, corresponding to a yield decrease of 2.5 basis points to 1.48%, despite rising yields in major global economies [1][4] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is seen as a critical test of market sentiment towards ultra-long-term bonds, with traders remaining cautious [1][4] Group 2 - Senior interest rate strategist Miki Den from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities noted that the 1.5% yield level is attractive for allocation funds, which is key to the recovery in demand [4] - However, he warned that the downward yield potential may be limited due to the upcoming 30-year bond issuance, indicating that the market needs to digest the supply pressure from ultra-long-term bonds [4] - The global bond market is currently experiencing a crisis of confidence, with concerns over large fiscal deficits in major economies increasing debt burdens, compounded by the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from large-scale bond purchases [4][5] Group 3 - Recent auction data shows that the subscription multiple for the 2.6 trillion yen 10-year government bonds significantly increased to above the one-year average, despite yields rising over 50 basis points from the 2023 low [5] - The attractiveness of Japanese bonds relative to other developed countries is a primary reason for the influx of allocation funds [5] - The upcoming 30-year bond auction is expected to be a crucial observation point, as its yield has reached the highest level since issuance, which will directly impact global investors' risk assessment of the Japanese bond market [5]

智通财经6月3日电，意大利10年期国债收益率降至三个月低点，为3.477%。 ...

日本10年期国债收益率下行3个基点至1.475%，此前日本拍卖10年期国债，需求乐观。 ...

10年期日本国债收益率在强劲的拍卖结果后下跌3个基点，至1.475%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve, which may not yet present a buying opportunity for long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 0.874 basis points, currently reported at +53.196 basis points [1] - The yield spread reached a peak of +54.429 basis points at 15:48 Beijing time, approaching previous highs of +58.328 basis points on October 1, 2021, and +86.817 basis points on February 24 of the same year [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at TCW, believes the current yield spread is not wide enough to justify purchasing long-term bonds [1] - Patton suggests an overweight position in 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds, anticipating further steepening of the yield curve [1] - She emphasizes the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than simply reacting to a 5% yield on 30-year bonds, indicating that it remains relatively low compared to other parts of the curve [1]