Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange - rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.319%, 4.696%, 3.467% respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied among different countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.033, a weekly change of 0.035, a monthly change of - 0.099, and an annual change of 0.375 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. on August 15, 2025, were 3.927%, 1.970%, 0.822% respectively. Similar to the 10 - year yields, the changes in different time - frames differed across countries [3]. - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 15, 2025, the exchange rates against South Africa's ZAR, Brazil, Russia, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For instance, against South Africa's ZAR, the latest change was - 0.29%, the weekly change was - 0.61%, the monthly change was - 4.12%, and the annual change was not provided in the context [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, France CAC, etc. had their closing prices on August 15, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 6449.800, with a latest change of - 0.29%, a weekly change of 0.94%, a monthly change of 2.43%, and an annual change of 24.05% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The indices of emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bonds had their latest, weekly, monthly, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.10%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 1.48%, and an annual change of 5.08% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the A - share closed at 3696.77 with a 0.83% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.46 with a 0.04环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and Germany DAX were given. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.66 with a - 0.02环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was 931.56, and the 5 - day average was - 217.38 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 22446.12 with a - 345.97环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC were provided. For example, the basis of IF was 7.05 with a 0.17% spread [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. For example, T00 closed at 108.295 with a - 0.10% change [6]. - The money market interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes (BP) were provided. For example, R001 was 1.4391% with a - 3.00 BP daily change [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bond traders are heavily betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a critical moment approaching as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to comment on the economy this week [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole is anticipated to be crucial for the U.S. Treasury market, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut next month and at least one more cut by the end of the year [3]. - Traders believe that a weak labor market opens the door for a more dovish tone from Powell, despite some economists hesitating due to unexpectedly strong inflation data [3]. - Investors expect Powell to avoid disrupting the rate cut bets while indicating that the September 17 policy decision will depend on data reports confirming a cooling labor market and controlled inflation [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Powell's past statements at the Jackson Hole symposium have significantly influenced market expectations, including a warning about the pain of fighting inflation three years ago and a hint at lowering borrowing costs last year [4]. - Some traders are anticipating a repeat of last year's scenario, with large-scale options trading betting on a 50 basis point rate cut next month, despite rising producer price index [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Economic Indicators - Increasing calls from President Donald Trump and other officials for lower borrowing costs are fueling rate cut bets, although Powell has maintained a cautious stance, needing time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [5]. - The Fed is under significant pressure, with some analysts suggesting that the current data supports the case for resuming the rate cut cycle [5].

每经AI快讯，8月18日，日本10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点，至1.585%。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

Financial Market Performance - The European industrial production showed weakness in Q2, while the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a decline in investor confidence in August. The investor confidence index in Europe fell again, with institutional investors showing stronger confidence than individual investors [1] - Following the appreciation of the euro against the dollar in May-June 2025, the dollar index rebounded in July, but uncertainty in US economic data increased in August, leading to a rise in the euro to 1.17 against the dollar by August 15 [1] - Expectations of increased defense spending in Germany and other countries are anticipated to boost the Eurozone economy, alongside improved expectations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Bond Market Analysis - The European bond market continues to exhibit a bear flattening trend, with 10-year government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France remaining relatively high. In August, the yield spread on government bonds widened slightly [2] - Concerns over potential inflation fluctuations and uncertainties regarding US tariff agreements are driving the widening of bond spreads, while the European Central Bank maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2025 [2] Stock Market Performance - Since April, the UK stock market has shown stable growth, with the German stock market performing well since the beginning of the year. European bank stocks have recently led the market [3] - The Eurozone STOXX50 index has seen a cumulative increase of 24.6% over the past quarter, driven by the return of overseas funds to the European market and the resilience of the European economy [3][4] - The UK FTSE 100 index reached a record high on August 15, supported by economic resilience and service sector growth [4] Sector Performance - In the past two weeks, large-cap value stocks in banking and energy sectors have performed well, while sectors like biotechnology, transportation, food, and airlines have also shown strong performance. The AI technology sector, however, faced pressure [5] - Current valuations for major indices in the UK, France, and Germany are around 17-20 times PE, close to historical averages. In comparison, the S&P 500 index stands at 29 times, significantly higher than European indices [5] - The European stock market is expected to have allocation value and potential for growth in 2025, supported by active fiscal policies and a relatively loose monetary policy environment [5]

Core Viewpoint - European bond yields have seen significant increases, indicating rising borrowing costs and potential implications for economic conditions in the region [1] Group 1: France - The yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose by 9.8 basis points to 3.472%, approaching the March 25 peak of 3.514%, with a weekly increase of 11.9 basis points [1] - The yield on France's 30-year government bonds increased by 10.4 basis points to 4.330%, nearing the November 16, 2011 peak of 4.522%, with a weekly rise of 17.5 basis points [1] Group 2: Italy - The yield on Italy's 10-year government bonds rose by 10.1 basis points to 3.592%, with a weekly increase of 11.0 basis points [1] Group 3: Spain - The yield on Spain's 10-year government bonds increased by 8.7 basis points to 3.352%, with a weekly rise of 9.5 basis points [1] Group 4: Greece - The yield on Greece's 10-year government bonds rose by 9.9 basis points to 3.445%, with a weekly increase of 11.1 basis points [1]

Group 1 - Marc Sumerlin, a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for a significant interest rate cut next month, warning that rising long-term Treasury yields could halt this action [1][2] - Sumerlin identifies the real estate sector as the weakest link in the current market, emphasizing the need to prevent long-term interest rates from rising [1] - He notes that the Federal Reserve has a 50 basis point room for a rate cut based on the current yield curve, with the target range for the overnight rate at 4.25%-4.5% and the six-month Treasury yield at 3.94% [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has increased due to disappointing employment reports, with market pricing indicating over a 90% chance of a cut next month [2] - Sumerlin has been mentioned as a candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May next year, having previously served as an economic policy advisor under President George W. Bush [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that following the release of U.S. retail data, U.S. Treasury yields experienced a short-term increase, with the 2-year Treasury yield turning upward and currently reported at 3.740% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the M1 year - on - year growth rate was stronger than expected, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be strengthened. The rebound of M1 growth rate and the improvement of credit structure release positive signals, yet problems such as weak household credit and reliance on government bonds still exist. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of social financing stock may slow down, while the year - on - year improvement trend of M1 is expected to continue [6][26]. - The growth of social financing mainly depends on government bond issuance, and the growth rate of social financing may reach its peak this year. The support of government bonds for social financing is weakening, and the subsequent growth momentum of social financing needs to focus on the substantial improvement of real - entity financing demand [5][13]. - The recent bond market is under phased pressure. The biggest risk point in the bond market is the strengthening of the equity market. If the equity market stabilizes at key points, it may continue to have a negative impact on the bond market [8][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Data Review - **Social Financing**: In July 2025, the new social financing scale was 116 billion yuan, with government bond financing accounting for 107.24%. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.98%, and the social financing growth rate after excluding government bonds was 6.02%. The issuance of special bonds this year is significantly ahead of schedule. As the peak of special bond issuance passes, its support for social financing weakens, and the growth rate of social financing stock may be peaking [5][13]. - **Money Supply**: The year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded to 5.60%, mainly driven by the extremely low base effect of corporate current deposits in July 2024. The improvement trend of M1 year - on - year is expected to continue until September due to the low - base effect [5][19]. - **Credit**: New RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, mainly relying on bill financing. The bill rediscount rate of state - owned joint - stock banks has been declining. The weak credit performance in July is due to the seasonal off - peak of credit and the impact of the revised "Regulations on Guaranteeing the Payment of Payments to Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" [5][22]. 3.2 Financial Data and Bond Market Outlook - **Leading Relationship**: The HP filtering cycle analysis shows that the year - on - year growth rate of M1 leads the Treasury bond yield by about 6 months. However, the recent rebound of M1 is mainly driven by the low - base effect, which may weaken the predictive power of this leading relationship [7][27]. - **Bond Market Situation**: The bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 data, the improvement of market risk appetite, and policy expectations. The current biggest risk in the bond market is the strengthening of the equity market, and the yield of ten - year Treasury bonds has risen from 1.65% to around 1.70% [8][30].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's 5-year government bond yield has dropped to its lowest level since April 2022, indicating a significant shift in the country's bond market dynamics [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 5-year bond yield reflects changing investor sentiment and potential economic conditions in Indonesia [1]