Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July 2025, primarily influenced by lower food prices [1] Summary by Relevant Sections CPI Analysis - The CPI year-on-year was unchanged, largely due to a 1.6% decline in food prices compared to the same period last year, with the decline rate expanding by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The impact of food prices on the CPI year-on-year decreased by approximately 0.29 percentage points, with the downward influence increasing by about 0.24 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Food Price Dynamics - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant year-on-year decline of 7.6%, with the drop rate widening by 7.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Fresh fruit prices increased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The combined downward impact of fresh vegetables and fruits on the CPI year-on-year increased by approximately 0.21 percentage points, which was the main reason for the CPI turning from an increase to flat [1] Non-Food Price Trends - Non-food prices experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline, driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with significant contributions from gold and platinum jewelry prices [1][3] - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year, impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain sectors [2][3] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with some industries experiencing price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships and ongoing macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Specific industries such as traditional manufacturing and emerging sectors showed price increases, with notable rises in the prices of caustic soda and aircraft manufacturing [3][4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, with a year-on-year change remaining flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, and has expanded for three consecutive months [1][2] - Service prices contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%, driven by seasonal factors such as summer travel [2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a narrowing of the drop for the first time since March [1][4] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 3.6%, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [1][5] - Seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties have influenced price changes in various sectors, with notable decreases in construction materials and energy-related prices [4][5]

国家统计局：PPI环比下降0.2%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点，为3月份以来环比降幅首次收窄。本月PPI环比变动的主要原因：一是季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响部分行业价格下降。夏季高温雨水天气增多，一方面建筑项目施工进度放缓影响建材需求；另一方面部分地区河流水量充沛，水力发电对火力发电的补充替代作用明显增强，电煤需求减少，电价下降。二是国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动相关行业价格降幅收窄。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，煤炭、钢材、光伏、水泥和锂电等行业市场竞争秩序持续优化，煤炭开采和洗选业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、光伏设备及元器件制造、水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9个、1.5个、0.8个、0.3个和0.1个百分点，合计对PPI环比的下拉影响比上月减少0.14个百分点。 ...

中国7月CPI年率0.0%，预期-0.1%，前值0.1%。CPI月率0.4%，预期0.3%，前值-0.1%。PPI年率-3.6%，预期-3.3%，前值-3.6%。PPI月率-0.2%，前值-0.4%。 https://t.co/tPuYXwI40r ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局：7月CPI同比持平，PPI同比下降3.6%。 ...

中国7月PPI同比 -3.6%，前值 -3.6%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in May showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening growth margin of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry showed slight declines [2] - The demand for services increased, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by higher travel and accommodation costs [3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends [3][4] Group 3 - The hospitality and tourism sectors experienced price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3] - High-tech industries, including integrated circuits and wearable devices, saw price increases of 3.6% and 3.0% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end and innovative production [4] - The prices of photovoltaic and lithium battery manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, with decreases of 12.1% and 5% year-on-year, respectively [4]

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]

Key Takeaways from July PMI Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing the **July PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)** data which indicates a softening growth trend in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: The July manufacturing PMI registered at **49.3**, below expectations (Consensus: **49.7**; June: **49.7**), indicating broad-based weakness primarily due to weaker demand and modest production cuts linked to anti-involution measures [5][8]. 2. **New Orders and Export Orders**: New orders decreased by **0.8 percentage points** to **49.4**, while new export orders fell by **0.6 percentage points** to **47.1**, reflecting a decline in demand [2][6]. 3. **Production and Employment**: Production softened to **50.5** (down **0.5 percentage points**), and employment remained weak at **48.0**, indicating challenges in labor demand [2][6]. 4. **Non-Manufacturing PMI**: The non-manufacturing PMI also declined to **50.1**, with construction activities particularly affected, dropping **2.2 percentage points** due to adverse weather conditions [2][8]. 5. **Price Indices**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to improve slightly to **-0.2%** month-on-month in July (from **-0.4%** in June), with a year-on-year change edging up to **-3.5%** [3][8]. 6. **GDP Growth Outlook**: Real GDP growth is projected to slip to **4.5%** in Q3 (compared to **5.2%** in Q2), influenced by factors such as export front-loading and limited new stimulus measures [4][8]. Additional Important Points - **Consumer Sentiment**: The service PMI remained subdued at **50**, reflecting sluggish consumer sentiment, which may impact future demand [2][8]. - **Upstream Pricing**: There is a modest sequential rise in input prices (up **3.1 percentage points** to **51.5**), but output prices showed a milder contraction (up **2.1 percentage points** to **48.3**), indicating limited passthrough amid soft final demand [3][8]. - **Weather Impact**: Adverse weather conditions have notably affected construction activities, contributing to the decline in non-manufacturing PMI [2][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the July PMI conference call, highlighting the challenges faced by the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China, along with the implications for economic growth and consumer sentiment.