研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 15 元至 1673 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 元至 1610 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3290 手至 21.26 万手，空头持仓减 少 6069 手至 25.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.94 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工率 85.2%，较去年同期 85.13%增加 0.08%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 4.54%。尿素港口样本库存量 51.6 万吨，环比减少 3.34 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 38.6%，环比+0.8%，三聚氰胺开工率 56.7%，环比+1.4%。 | | | | | 4、9 月 2 日印度 NFL 的尿素进口招标，最 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]

【冠通研究】 沥青：高开后震荡运行 制作日期：2025年9月24日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.5个百分点至34.4%，较去年同期高了6.2个百分点，沥青开 工率小幅回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，9月份国内沥青预计排产268.6万吨， 环比增加27.3万吨，增幅为11.3%，同比增加68.3万吨，增幅为34.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率 上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨1.69个百分点至30.31%，只是仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金 和部分地区降雨高温制约。上周，华北地区多执行前期合同，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增 加31.10%至31.36万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比有所下降，仍处于近年来同期 的最低位。本周东明石化、山东金诚等装置稳定生产，河南丰利有复产计划，沥青产量将有所增加， 北方天气尚可，多地项目赶工，只是南方个别地区降雨增加，受到台风的影响，另外，资金端制约， 市场谨慎，影响沥青需求。供应过剩加剧下，近期原油期价下跌，沥青成本端支撑走弱。预计沥青 期价震荡下行。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 【基本面跟踪】 基本面上看，供应端， ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract oscillated at a low level, with trading volume of 52,899 thousand (-13,200) and open interest of 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME nickel rose 0.83%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Considering the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel-iron plants narrowed, domestic production in September increased, as did Indonesia's production, and nickel-iron inventories decreased. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - On September 23, the stainless steel main contract oscillated within a range, with trading volume of 139,017 lots (+402) and open interest of 123,891 lots (-6,126). The spot market saw fair trading at low prices, and the basis premium widened. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300-series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices rose, as did high-carbon ferrochrome prices. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost end provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, so prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near-month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 120,730 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,100 yuan/ton, and 121,340 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price was 15,415 dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,340 dollars, and the on - site closing price was 15,354 dollars, with increases compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai nickel's trading volume was 52,899 thousand (-13,200), and open interest was 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME 3 - month nickel's trading volume was 5,176 lots (+1,152) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventories decreased, while LME nickel inventories increased. SMM China port nickel ore total inventories were 9.71 million wet tons (+180,000), SMM Shanghai bonded area nickel inventories decreased by 600 tons, and SMM pure nickel social inventories increased [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and SHFE nickel active contract closing price was 1,220 yuan/ton (-80). The price spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel's near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 12,785 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,990 yuan/ton respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless steel was 139,017 lots (+402), and open interest was 123,891 lots (-6,126) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and active contract was 20 yuan/ton, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. Market News - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) has imposed sanctions on 25 nickel mining companies in Southeast Sulawesi. A total of 190 general mining licenses were suspended, and the sanctions include a suspension of mining activities for up to 60 days. Once companies submit reclamation plans and necessary guarantees, the sanctions will be lifted [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 24, 2025 1. Market Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract on September 23 was 11,430, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 245. The open interest was 65,588, a daily decrease of 4,718 but a weekly increase of 1,372. The trading volume was 109,780, a daily increase of 13,914 and a weekly increase of 35,016 [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price dropped to 11,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 200. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,450, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged daily but down 200 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47. The import profit was - 83,069, a daily decrease of 62 but a weekly increase of 1,407. The export profit was 19, a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly decrease of 4 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, also down 50 daily and 150 weekly. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged daily but down 100 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 200. The import profit was 478, a daily decrease of 51 but a weekly increase of 91. The export profit was - 996, a daily decrease of 98 and a weekly decrease of 47 [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 985, unchanged daily but up 160 weekly. The ABS production profit data was not available [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, a daily increase of 4,628 but a weekly decrease of 1,887. The NR - BR spread was - 53,193, a daily increase of 4,688 and a weekly decrease of 1,692. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,280, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][13][23]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][13][23]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including futures and spot prices, processing profits, import and export profits, and price spreads of BR, BD, and their downstream products. It shows the dynamic changes in the market over a week, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in the synthetic rubber industry.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Buy after the price pullback stabilizes [1] - For industrial silicon: Participate in short - term long positions and follow the trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon's long - term price is likely to rise. Although there are short - term negative factors, the best strategy is to wait for the price to pull back and stabilize before taking long positions [4]. - For industrial silicon, due to its current inventory structure and the limited impact of price on supply, the production schedule adjustment in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. The short - term strategy is to take long positions and follow the trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In September, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 6GW to 58GW compared to August, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The overall polysilicon operating rate changed little, and the output is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The current physical inventory of polysilicon is about 450,000 tons, with upstream inventory of about 200,000 tons and downstream raw material inventory of about 300,000 tons (including pre - purchases) [4]. - **Price trend**: In the long - term, the spot price of polysilicon is likely to rise. On September 19, there were rumors of factory复产 and cancellation of production cuts in October, which was a short - term negative for polysilicon futures. Currently, the spot price is rising steadily, and the 11 - contract is facing pressure from warrant cancellation, with short - term fluctuations [4]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Take long positions after a sufficient pullback; Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for contracts 2511 and 2512; Options: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [6]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. Except for leading large enterprises, the industrial silicon futures price of 8,500 - 10,000 has limited impact on supply. The production schedule adjustment of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price [6]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Take long positions; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options; Arbitrage: Close the reverse arbitrage positions of contracts 11 and 12 for profit [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 9,305 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 250 yuan/ton [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC decreased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased. The weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial silicon production**: This week, the output of industrial silicon decreased. The weekly output was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. In the short term, the operating rate of industrial silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan is unlikely to be adjusted, and only leading large enterprises in Xinjiang may have adjustment plans [23]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory, social inventory increased, and the downstream raw material inventory slightly decreased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [24]. - **Related product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened. The prices of organic silicon - related products, such as DMC and terminal products, decreased slightly. The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The price of Xinjiang refined coal increased [29][33][45]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon strengthened. The price of N - type re -投料 was 50.3 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material was 49.3 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49 - 50 yuan/kg. The price of rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon increased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to last week [50][58]. - **Silicon wafer and battery prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The price of N - type silicon wafers - 183mm rose to 1.35 yuan/piece, the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R rose to 1.4 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210mm rose to 1.69 yuan/piece. The price of N - type topcon183 battery was 0.315 yuan/W, and the price of 210R battery was 0.305 yuan/W, both increasing by 0.005 yuan/W compared to last week [64]. - **Component prices**: This week, the domestic photovoltaic component prices fluctuated. The price of Topcon components - 182mm (distributed) was 0.670 - 0.686 yuan/W, the price of Topcon components - 210mm (distributed) was 0.675 - 0.690 yuan/W, and the price of Topcon components - 210R (distributed) was 0.689 - 0.705 yuan/W. In the centralized project, the price of 182 components was 0.658 - 0.675 yuan/W, and the price of 210 components was 0.673 - 0.690 yuan/W [65]. - **Component fundamentals**: Currently, the domestic orders for components are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in September increased slightly to 46GW compared to August. In October, many component enterprises plan to reduce production and have holidays, and the production schedule is expected to decrease [80]. - **Battery fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries is good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 5.94GW, which is moderate. With the increase in the component production schedule in September, the battery production schedule increased to 57GW [81]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output increased to 13.92GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 16.87GW. The silicon wafer output in September was 58GW, an increase of 6GW compared to August [86]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output slightly increased, and the factory inventory slightly increased to 234,200 tons. After the production capacity of an enterprise in Xinjiang's Ningxia project was put into operation in September, the output increased by 2,000 tons. An enterprise in Qinghai was under maintenance, and the Inner Mongolia production capacity of an enterprise in Sichuan may have rotational maintenance. The polysilicon output in September is expected to be flat compared to August, at around 130,000 tons [91].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures market: CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a decline of 70, trading volume of 241,105 (a decrease of 94,261), and open interest of 532,801 (an increase of 10,524). CY01 contract closed at 19,635 with a decline of 45, trading volume of 228 (an increase of 108), and open interest of 480 (an increase of 18). Other contracts also had corresponding price, volume, and open - interest changes [3]. - Spot market: CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,133 yuan/ton, down 150; CY IndexC32S was 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had price fluctuations [3]. - Spread: Cotton and棉纱 had various spreads, including inter - month spreads, inter - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 20, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,095, up 25 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - Market news: As of September 20, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 99%, up 2.4 percentage points week - on - week, 0.8% slower than last year. As of September 18, the processing progress was 41%. As of September 21, the boll opening rate of US cotton in 15 major planting states was 60%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the harvest rate was 12%, the same as the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 10 percentage points higher than last year [6]. - Trading logic: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase more than expected, and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average. There is expected to be no large - scale rush to buy. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season performance this year is expected to be average [7]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Market news: After the sharp decline of Zhengzhou cotton, the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. The prices of some spinning mills with high quotes dropped by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak. Low - count conventional varieties still had sales, but the increase in custom - woven orders was limited, and the profit margin was small [10][12]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For the option contract CF601C14000.CZC on September 23, 2025, the underlying contract price was 13,540, the closing price was 130, with a decline of 25.7%. Other option contracts also had corresponding price, volatility, and Greek letter data [14]. - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on that day was 10.5675, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different, such as 12.3% for CF601C14000.CZC [14]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [10][16]

期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告 摘要 农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月22日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 阔叶浆提涨外加针叶浆价格处于成本线附近，对短期价格或有所支 撑，不过上涨驱动还不明朗，需要验证成品纸旺季成色，向上高度 谨慎 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][10] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or cautious long positions [1][12][19] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage on soda ash [1][22][34] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; neutral on apples, recommended for range trading with an upward bias; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range trading with a downward bias [1][36][37] - Agricultural and livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to sell on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; bearish on soybean meal, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after the correction [1][40][53] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. The bond market is gradually recovering, and market sentiment is stabilizing [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal prices and policy expectations. The non-ferrous metals market is influenced by macro factors and supply and demand. The energy and chemicals market is facing challenges such as high inventory and weak demand [8][12][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and policy changes. The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy support [36][40] Summaries by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: A-shares showed a shrinking consolidation trend on Monday, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well. The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Recommended to buy on dips [5] - Government bonds: The market sentiment continued to improve on Monday, and the yields of government bonds at all maturities fell from previous highs. The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation, injecting positive sentiment into the bond market. Recommended to hold [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with prices rising across the board. The supply of coking coal is affected by factors such as mine maintenance and production cuts. Recommended for range trading [8] - Rebar: The futures price of rebar showed a slightly stronger trend on Monday. The valuation of rebar has slightly increased, and the macro policy and industrial demand are the main driving factors. Recommended for range trading [8] - Glass: The fundamentals of glass are stable, and the market is affected by factors such as coal prices and seasonal demand. The supply of glass is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended to buy on dips [10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper showed a high-level consolidation trend this week. The demand for copper is affected by high prices, and the supply is affected by factors such as smelter maintenance and imports. The macro factors are expected to have a significant impact on the price of copper. Recommended for range trading [12] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to continue its high-level consolidation trend. The supply of aluminum is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended for range trading [13] - Nickel: The price of nickel is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Recommended to sell on rallies [18] - Tin: The price of tin is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of tin is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as semiconductor production and solder manufacturing. Recommended for range trading [18] - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The prices of precious metals are affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks. Recommended for range trading [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The price of PVC is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of PVC is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports. Recommended for range trading [23] - Caustic soda: The price of caustic soda is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of caustic soda is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as alumina production and exports. Recommended for range trading [26] - Styrene: The price of styrene is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of styrene is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [27] - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of rubber is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as tire production and exports. Recommended for range trading [29] - Urea: The price of urea is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of urea is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as agriculture and exports. Recommended for range trading [30] - Methanol: The price of methanol is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of methanol is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [31] - Polyolefins: The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The supply of polyolefins is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [32] - Soda ash: The price of soda ash is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soda ash is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as glass production and exports. Recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The prices of cotton and cotton yarn are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The global supply and demand of cotton are improving, but the new cotton production is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices. Recommended for range trading [36] - PTA: The price of PTA is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of PTA is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as polyester production and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [36] - Apples: The price of apples is expected to continue its upward trend. The supply of apples is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with an upward bias [37] - Jujubes: The price of jujubes is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of jujubes is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The price of pigs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of pigs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [40] - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of eggs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [42] - Corn: The price of corn is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [44] - Soybean meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soybean meal is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [45] - Oils: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to continue their downward trends. The supply of oils is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to buy after the correction [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: On September 22, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose and then fell, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel price dropped by 0.46%. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. With supply stagnant and nickel ore prices flat, port inventories increased last week. Nickel pig iron plants' losses narrowed. In September, domestic production increased in both nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel, while export profits shrank. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory changes and the fact that the Fed's rate cut has been implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, so the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On September 22, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had weak transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. In September, stainless - steel production is set to increase. Terminal demand is weak, but the cost side is supported by stable high - nickel pig iron prices and rising high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Despite the loose fundamentals, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to cost support and limited inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121,400 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 121,730 yuan/ton, and 121,920 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 100 yuan/ton, + 660 yuan/ton, - 190 yuan/ton, and - 240 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel contract was 66,099 lots (+ 3,446), and the open interest was 45,068 lots (- 5,353) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel's official spot price was 15,460 dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton (- 70 dollars/ton), and the trading volume was 4,024 lots (- 650) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price (basis) was 1,300 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. - The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines with different grades (0.9%, 1.5%, 1.8% CIF) remained unchanged [2]. - The prices of nickel pig iron with different nickel contents (1.5 - 1.7%, 8 - 12%) were stable, while the battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 307 tons to 25,536 tons [2]. - The LME nickel registered inventory was 218,454 tons, and the total inventory increased by 456 tons to 228,444 tons [2]. - The SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 180,000 wet tons to 9.71 million wet tons last week [2]. - The SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased, with the total inventory at 3,100 tons (- 600) [2]. - The SMM pure nickel social inventory increased to 41,484 tons [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: - On September 22, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,995 yuan/ton respectively, with various changes compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel contract was 138,615 lots (+ 21,690), and the open interest was 130,017 lots (- 1,168) [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis (304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract) was 940 yuan/ton (- 50) [2]. - The prices of different types of stainless - steel products (304, 316L) in Wuxi and Foshan showed some fluctuations [2]. - **Inventory**: - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless - steel inventory decreased by 355 tons to 89,377 tons [2]. - The 300 - series stainless - steel social inventory was 593,400 tons (- 2,900) last week [2]. - The total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 13,500 tons to 880,700 tons [2]. Trade and Policy Information - In August 2025, China's unwrought nickel imports were 24,268.4 tons, a 36.11% decrease from the previous month but a 172.34% increase year - on - year. Norway was the largest import source, with imports of 12,020.2 tons (a 391.89% increase from the previous month and a 1745.85% increase year - on - year), and Russia was the second - largest source, with imports of 5,128.53 tons (a 71.10% decrease from the previous month and a 2.17% decrease year - on - year) [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].