格隆汇1月21日｜周三，现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，继续创历史新高，黄金股ETF、黄金ETF华夏分 别涨3.62%和2.87%，净值双双创历史新高。 消息面上： 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 均衡配置主流金属：有色金属ETF基金(516650)，+1.72%，跟踪的细分有色指数，成份股均衡配置铜， 铝，黄金，稀土，锂，金铜铝合计含量为61.29%，居全市场有色指数第一。该ETF连续19日"吸金"，合 计净流入108亿元 费率成本最低的黄金、白银相关企业集合ETF：黄金股ETF(159562)，+3.62%，跟踪的指数SSH黄金股 票的成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同样包含白银有色、湖南白银等白银金属上市公司。该ETF连续6日"吸 金"，合计净流入超9亿元 费率最低的黄金投资利器：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，+2.87%，锚定实物黄金，支持T+0交易，近20日净 流入21.7亿元，场外联接基金(A类：008701，C类：008702)。 ①格陵兰岛事件持续发酵，特朗普威胁要对欧洲国家加征关税，欧洲议会冻结此前美欧达成的贸易协议 的批准程序。 ②日本财政危机叠加地缘紧张局势，引发全球债市抛售潮，日本、美国长期国 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to $4,861.01 per ounce, marking a 2.07% increase, with a peak of $4,870.41 and a low of $4,756.81, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe [1] - The market's risk aversion was intensified by President Trump's aggressive stance on Greenland, which could potentially lead to a trade war with Europe and threaten NATO unity [1] - Trump's warning of imposing tariffs up to 200% on French wine and champagne if they obstruct US interests has caught European leaders off guard, prompting calls for the EU to reduce dependence on the US [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that Trump's actions have led to a loss of trust in the US, with investors selling off US assets, including the dollar and long-term bonds, in favor of gold [2] - The dollar experienced its largest single-day drop in over a month, with the US stock market indices also seeing significant declines, indicating a broader sell-off of US assets [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events, including the Supreme Court's review of Trump's attempt to remove a Federal Reserve governor and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for January 27-28, where rates are expected to remain unchanged [2] Group 3 - The gold market opened at $4,672.30, initially retracing to a low of $4,659.20 before rallying due to safe-haven demand, closing at $4,763.60 [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for gold, but caution is advised due to clear overbought signals, with specific price levels identified for potential adjustments and stop-loss placements [3] - Target prices for gold are set at various levels, including $4,745, $4,752, $4,763, $4,772, $4,785, and the $4,800 mark [3]

Group 1 - The rise in risk aversion has driven precious metals higher, with spot gold surpassing $4870 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 2.3%. UBS strategist Joni Teves expects gold prices to have upward momentum in the first half of the year, potentially reaching $5000 per ounce if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence persist [1] - Silver is benefiting from the rise in gold prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, with expectations to challenge $100 per ounce this year [1] - The copper market is tightening due to demand from energy transition, leading to an expected increase in price levels [1] Group 2 - As of November, the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, indicating a temporarily stable labor market, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April [1] - In the medium to long term, risks related to U.S. federal government debt remain, and the dollar's status is facing challenges, suggesting continued opportunities for gold in the context of a global monetary system restructuring [1] Group 3 - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.76%, with component stocks such as silver and tungsten companies showing significant gains, including a 10.01% increase for silver companies and 9.92% for tungsten companies [1] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index tracks 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum [2]

黄金操作策略： 1、黄金回踩4837-4840一线轻仓做多，回踩4820-4830一线补仓多，止损4798一线，目标4875-4880一线，破位继续持有； 文/许安丰 黄金昨日早间开盘便开启了狂飙之路，引起迅速狂涨的主要是受欧美经贸关系的紧张，而且美联储降息的预期也愈愈演愈烈，从 而推动了避险情绪的高涨，日线也是收于光头的中阳线形态，早间开盘后继续爆发，目前触及到了4864一线位置震荡，目前也是 继续处于高位跃跃欲试，对于目前的这种行情，技术面基本上起不到太大的作用，而需要做单的只有我们的勇气和对市场的评 估，其实在每个点位都有人做多，只要对风险的把控程度，扩大利润空间，目前多头持续飙升之中，何时是个头我们也不得而 知，需要的是在适当的时间用最小的损失博取最大的利润，不要猜顶，不要做空，要么顺势跟进，要么观望等回调。对黄金感兴 趣却无从下手或者操作不理想的朋友可以与老许本人前来沟通交流。 从目前4小时分析来看，上方我们短期先关注4890-4900一线压制情况，下方关注4837-4440一线短期支撑情况，重点关注4820- 4800一线附近的支撑，操作上我们继续坚定不移的走回踩做多思路不变，具体操作策略我会在盘 ...

其二，全球央行黄金配置意愿强劲。2026年全球宏观经济及秩序结构仍处于深度调整阶段，尤其是特朗 普政府政策及其变动性，进一步加剧了经济不确定性。各国央行基于战略安全与资产配置多元化需求， 将持续强化黄金储备布局，为金价提供支撑。 其三，美联储降息周期延续形成利好。目前美国劳动力市场持续降温，且通胀反弹风险处于可控范围， 这两大因素为美联储2026年继续实施降息政策提供了空间，市场对美联储货币宽松的预期持续存在，进 一步利好金价。 值得关注的是，同期白银价格涨幅超过黄金。东方金诚研究发展部认为，这一现象主要源于两方面因 素：一方面，白银被列入美国关键矿产清单后，其战略资源属性与工业属性形成协同驱动；另一方面， 白银价格弹性本身高于黄金，在利好因素共振支撑下，银价上涨幅度更为显著。 对于2026年国际金价走势，东方金诚判断，金价仍将延续2025年以来的强势上涨态势，四大核心因素将 持续提供支撑。 其一，美国财政风险构成金价上行的主要支撑。当前美国债务风险持续攀升，主要因特朗普政府推行的 经济、财政政策进一步加重联邦政府债务负担，叠加此前美国政府停摆造成的损失，市场对美国财政可 持续性的质疑不断加深。同时，美债收益 ...

分析人士提醒，黄金等贵金属价格去年以来已持续大幅上涨，短期内或有较大的波动性和不确定性。 现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，多家品牌金饰价已逼近1500元，其中，周生生足金饰品报1495元/克，较1月20日1454元/克涨41元/克。老凤祥足金饰品 报1498元/克，较1月20日1456元/克涨42元/克。老庙黄金足金饰品报1493元/克，较1月20日1455元/克涨38元/克。 | 现货黄金(AU)<日线> | | | 叠加商品▼ < □ △ □ □ | | | 现货黄金(XAU) | ■ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | K MA5:4688.727 MA10:4624.046 MA20:4514.517 MA40:4398.630 MA60:4288.542 | | | | | | | | | | | 4800. 720 | 4800. 035 | | 卖出 4800.695 50 | | | | | | | | | 买入 4800.035 50 | | | | | | | 4500.000 | 最新 | 4800.035 | 涨跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange have announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts, in response to rising market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and increased risk aversion [1][7]. Group 1: Margin and Price Fluctuation Adjustments - Copper futures contracts will have a price fluctuation limit adjusted to 8%, with a hedging margin ratio of 9% and a general margin ratio of 10% [3][6]. - Aluminum futures contracts will also see a price fluctuation limit of 8%, with similar margin ratios as copper [3][6]. - Gold futures contracts will have varying price fluctuation limits, with some contracts set at 16% and others at 15%, and corresponding margin ratios adjusted to 17% and 18% [4][6]. - Silver futures contracts will have price fluctuation limits of 17% and 15%, with margin ratios adjusted to 18% and 19% respectively [5][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Speculation - Recent geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve have contributed to rising prices in precious and non-ferrous metals, leading to increased speculative trading [7][8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented multiple rounds of risk control measures to curb excessive speculation in the metals market, similar to actions taken by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [7][8]. - Analysts note that the demand for gold is being driven by growth in industrial applications, solid consumer demand for jewelry, and increased purchases by central banks, which are seeking gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over U.S. debt [8].

镍期货市场：贸易战阴霾笼罩美股全线重挫引发资金撤离，隔夜伦镍收跌2.12%；伦镍最新收盘报 17760，比前一交易日下跌385美元/吨，跌幅为2.12%，成交10925手，国内方面，夜盘沪期镍弱势震 荡，尾盘大幅收跌，沪镍主力合约2602最新收报140110元/吨，下跌2400元/吨，跌幅为1.68%； 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月20日伦镍库存报284736吨，较前一交易日库存量减少972吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2602合约开盘报142600涨90元/吨，9：15分沪镍主力 2602合约报139810跌2700；沪期镍开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，从外部环境看，由地缘 局势紧张与贸易摩擦升级所触发的避险情绪主导了市场。美国股市全线重挫，恐慌指数大幅攀升，引发 资金从包括工业金属在内的风险资产中撤离。尽管美元指数同步走弱，但在此背景下，其通常对大宗商 品形成的计价支撑被完全掩盖。与此同时，资金明显流向黄金等传统避险资产，进一步分流了有色金属 市场的资金关注度。反观内部环境，宏观政策虽延续稳健基调，但并未释放进一步的宽松信号，市场对 政策利好的预期有所降温。同时，监管层面引导市 ...

Market Overview - The global market risk appetite has significantly decreased following President Trump's renewed tariff threats towards Europe, leading to a sell-off in major stock indices [1] - On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 870.74 points (1.76%) to 48,488.59, the S&P 500 dropped by 143.15 points (2.06%) to 6,796.86, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 561.07 points (2.39%) to 22,954.32, marking the worst single-day performance since October 10 of the previous year [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," surged above 20, reaching a recent high [1] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 4%, Apple and Amazon falling over 3%, and Google decreasing by over 2% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.44%, with Bilibili down 6.8% and Alibaba nearly 2% [2] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index saw a substantial drop, with an intraday decline of approximately 0.8% and a closing decrease of nearly 0.5% [2] - US Treasury bonds experienced a broad decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 6.76 basis points to 4.2906%, the 2-year yield increasing by 0.87 basis points to 3.5947%, and the 30-year yield climbing by 7.92 basis points to 4.9158% [2] - The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields reached new highs not seen since early September of the previous year, indicating a rise in yields correlating with a drop in bond prices [2] Global Market Influences - The sell-off was initially triggered by domestic issues in Japan, where concerns over the Prime Minister's tax cuts and increased spending plans led to a rise of over 25 basis points in the 30-year Japanese government bond yield [2] - This increase threatened the so-called arbitrage trading strategy of borrowing low-interest yen to purchase global assets, contributing to rising bond yields in other regions [2] Safe-Haven Assets - Heightened market risk aversion has driven international gold and silver prices to new highs, with spot gold and New York futures exceeding $4,763 per ounce and spot silver surpassing $94 per ounce [3] - The price of gold rose by 2.01% and silver by 0.18% on the London market [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced a widespread decline, with Bitcoin falling below $90,000 and Ethereum dropping below $3,000, resulting in approximately 163,000 liquidations across the market [4]

格隆汇1月21日｜周三，现货黄金站上4800美元/盎司，继续创历史新高，黄金股ETF、黄金ETF华夏分 别涨3.62%和2.87%，净值双双创历史新高。 消息面上： ①格陵兰岛事件持续发酵，特朗普威胁要对欧洲国家加征关税，欧洲议会冻结此前美欧达成的贸易协议 的批准程序。 ②日本财政危机叠加地缘紧张局势，引发全球债市抛售潮，日本、美国长期国债收益率飙升。 费率成本最低的黄金、白银相关企业集合ETF：黄金股ETF(159562)，+3.62%，跟踪的指数SSH黄金股 票的成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同样包含白银有色、湖南白银等白银金属上市公司。该ETF连续6日"吸 金"，合计净流入超9亿元 费率最低的黄金投资利器：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，+2.87%，锚定实物黄金，支持T+0交易，近20日净 流入21.7亿元，场外联接基金(A类：008701，C类：008702)。 新湖期货指出，短期来看，地缘不确定性仍然存在，格陵兰岛事件仍在发酵，避险情绪将对金银等贵金 属价格形成一定支撑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆 甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 相 ...