Group 1 - In July, U.S. employers announced layoffs of 62,075, a 29% increase from June's 47,999 and a 140% increase compared to 25,855 in the same month last year [1][3][5] - The July layoffs represent the second highest for this month in the past decade, only surpassed by the peak during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [3] - Year-to-date, U.S. employers have announced 806,383 layoffs, a 75% increase from 460,530 in the same period last year, and already surpassing the total layoffs of 761,358 for the entire year of 2024 [5] Group 2 - Over the past month, layoffs attributed to artificial intelligence exceeded 10,000, with tariffs also being a significant factor [5] - Major tech companies, including Intel and Microsoft, have announced significant layoffs, with Microsoft planning to cut 9,000 employees despite strong performance [5] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasized the need to reimagine the company's mission in the AI era, urging remaining employees to learn new skills to remain relevant [5] Group 3 - In July, U.S. automotive manufacturers announced layoffs of 4,975, primarily due to tariffs, marking the highest monthly figure since November 2024 [6] - The retail sector has seen a dramatic increase in layoffs, with 80,487 announced in the first seven months of the year, a 249% increase from 23,077 in the same period last year [6] - Factors such as tariffs, inflation, and ongoing economic uncertainty are impacting retailers, leading to layoffs and store closures [6]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump continues to criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming he is unfit for the position and is causing significant economic losses for the country [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change [1]. - Market expectations align with the Fed's decision, as the probability of maintaining rates in September is 60.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 39.2% [3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict that the Fed may signal a willingness to cut rates in the near future, which could lead to a weaker dollar [6]. Group 2: Trump's Criticism and Economic Implications - Trump labeled Powell as "Mr. Too Late," accusing him of being ineffective and politically motivated, which he claims is detrimental to the economy [1][3]. - Trump also criticized the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, calling it one of the most corrupt projects in history [3]. - He emphasized the importance of tariffs for national protection, stating that without them, the country would face dire consequences [7].

国际商会：随着企业清空库存，价格上涨的影响或将显现 金十数据7月31日讯，国际商会称，与关税相关的价格上涨可能会在第三季度末开始产生影响，因为届 时企业可能已经清空了在新关税实施之前囤积的美国库存。今年，从汽车到药品、奶酪和葡萄酒，所有 生产企业都加快了向美国交货的速度，以赶在美国总统特朗普征收关税之前。国际商会副秘书长安德鲁 •威尔逊周四估计，企业有大约四个月的库存，比平均水平多一个月左右，这在一定程度上推迟了价格 上涨。他表示，"你可以预期，第三季末将会出现问题。"威尔逊此前预测，与关税相关的价格上涨将在 第四季度或明年初体现在美国的通胀中。周四，美国公布的数据显示6月通胀上升，因关税开始推高部 分商品的成本，支持了分析师对下半年物价压力将加剧的预期。 ...

特朗普称，鲍威尔根本不适合担任美联储主席一职，他正在让国家损失数万亿美元。 特朗普再次提到美联储大楼翻新事件，他说鲍威尔进行着建筑史上最错误、最腐败的建筑翻新。"换句 话说，'太迟先生'是一个彻头彻尾的失败者，我们的国家正在为此付出代价！" 美联储主席鲍威尔在本周三的会议上宣布维持利率不变，并暗示9月份降息的可能性还很低。 尽管美国总统特朗普此前多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但这些行 动均未奏效。本次利率决议结果符合市场预期，美联储连续第五次"按兵不动"。 特朗普在社交媒体上表示："'太迟先生'杰罗姆·鲍威尔又是老样子！他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太 愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化了。" 【导读】特朗普再次抨击鲍威尔，称其不适合担任美联储主席 7月31日，美联储公布7月份货币政策会议决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不 变。 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率达60.8%，降息25个基点的概率为39.2%； 美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为37.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为15%。 据悉，特朗普 ...

通胀路径明朗化 9月降息窗口仍在 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚等认为，美联储采取行动的条件正在成熟。市场普遍存在一个 误解，即认为美联储必须等到通胀数据明确回落后才能降息。但实际上，只要关税对通胀的影响路径基 本确定，美联储就可以提前行动。 7月按兵不动后，关于美联储是否会在9月降息的辩论，正变得日益激烈。 7月31日，中金公司的两篇研报从不同角度进行了剖析，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了两种关键 视角。中金宏观经济分析师肖捷文等认为，最新的信号指向美联储倾向于维持耐心，不会因特朗普施压 而降息。 中金首席海外策略分析师刘刚等则指出，市场可能误解了美联储的决策前提。降息并非必须等到通胀回 落，只要关税对通胀的"一次性"影响路径基本确定，美联储就可以行动。随着美国近期与多国达成关税 协定，这一路径正变得愈发清晰，为9月降息保留了可能性。这些观点并非相互矛盾，而是共同勾勒出 美联储在复杂的经济与政治环境下可能采取的行动路径。 通胀风险与政策独立性或使美联储继续按兵不动 中金公司研究部宏观经济分析师肖捷文等则认为，美联储不会因特朗普施压而降息。其核心逻辑基于美 联储近期的表态和其对政策独立性的坚守。 在最 ...

华尔街日报：特朗普和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆今天将讨论关税问题。 ...

特朗普和墨西哥总统辛鲍姆今天将讨论关税问题。 （华尔街日报） ...

根据再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据（挑战者报告），美国七月份的裁员计划飙升 至一个高位，远超疫情以来的月平均水平。其中，科技公司在裁员方面处于领先地位。 本月，美国公司宣布的裁员人数达到62075人，而去年同期约为25900人。该报告于周四发布，显示2025 年的裁员人数是过去十年中七月份的第二高，仅次于2020年新冠疫情最严重时期的裁员数量。 报告指出，计划裁员的原因包括人工智能和关税。此外，经济前景的不确定性导致零售业出现裁员和店 铺关闭。 近几周，主要科技公司公布了裁员计划。英特尔公司宣布计划裁员15%，而微软公司也启动了今年的第 二轮裁员，将影响9000名员工。整个科技行业都在增加对人工智能的投入，试图在其他方面削减成本。 计划中的裁员不一定会立即转化为实际的失业。截至六月，美国整体就业市场保持稳定，失业率维持在 4.1%的低位。然而，根据经济学家的预测中值，预计政府将于本周五发布的七月就业报告将显示，随 着就业增长放缓，失业率将小幅上升至4.2%。 挑战者报告还显示，汽车制造商的裁员计划有所增加，这主要与关税有关。此外，联邦预算削减正在对 依赖政府业务的 ...

北京时间周四20:30，美国公布PCE数据，6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于预期的2.70%，前 值由2.70%修正为2.8%。6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合预期，高于前值的0.20%。 包含食品能源的整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。 数据还显示，个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，将年率提升至2.6%，为2月份以来的最高水平。支 出疲软的背后是劳动力市场降温。实际可支配收入在5月份下降后持平，而工资和薪金几乎没有上涨。 预计将于周五公布的7月就业报告将显示招聘持续放缓，失业率略有回升。储蓄率保持在4.5%。 美国系列数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动暂不大，美元指数短线小幅走高。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，（6月）核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化，并不比美联储去年开始降息 时更好，从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%（去年同期为2.3%）。 按6个月年化计算，这一数字为3.2%（去年同期为3.3%）。 6月份的通胀数据是由商品价格上涨推动的，包括家居用品、运动器材和服装，这表明 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.49 on sales of $1.5 billion, with an operating margin of 11% [5][20] - Free cash flow reached $78 million, a significant increase from the previous year, representing a cash conversion of 108% [6][23] - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.3%, about 170 basis points better than planned due to favorable discrete items [21][22] - EBITDA was $182 million, up 12.2% of sales [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerials segment sales were $607 million, with an operating margin improvement of 500 basis points sequentially, but about 200 basis points lower than expected due to customer mix [23][24] - Materials Processing (MP) sales were $434 million, down 9% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 12.7%, showing a sequential improvement from 10% in Q1 [24][25] - Environmental Solutions (ES) generated $430 million in sales, with a 12.9% year-over-year growth and a 19.1% operating margin, reflecting strong performance [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Waste and recycling now represents approximately 30% of global revenue, characterized by low cyclicality and steady growth [14] - Utilities account for about 10% of revenue, with growth driven by the need to expand the power grid [14] - General construction has decreased to less than one-third of total markets, with strength in large projects and infrastructure, while local private projects remain soft [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging synergies across its portfolio, particularly following the ESG acquisition, and is ahead of initial synergy targets [16][19] - The company plans to maintain its full-year EPS outlook of $4.7 to $5.1, expecting stronger performance in Environmental Solutions in the second half [6][30] - The company is exploring digital revenue streams, particularly through the Third Eye platform, which enhances operational efficiency and safety [17][120] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic factors, including high interest rates and tariff-related uncertainties, continue to impact capital decisions [13][15] - The company expects a significant increase in free cash flow compared to 2024, anticipating between $300 million and $350 million in 2025 [31] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of its diversified end markets, particularly in waste and recycling, utilities, and infrastructure [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the second quarter with $1.2 billion in liquidity and plans to deleverage in the second half of the year [27] - A new $150 million share buyback program was authorized, with $33 million remaining from the previous authorization [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the strong ES margins? - Management attributed the strong ES margins to operational efficiencies, better execution in utilities, and favorable customer and product mix, although the favorable mix is not expected to recur in the second half [39][40][42] Question: What drove the $20 million adjustment in EBITDA guidance? - The adjustment was driven by stronger performance in ES, offset by unfavorable mix in Aerials and higher tariffs [47][49] Question: How do you view the margin outlook for Aerials? - Management expects Aerials' operating margin to be mid-single digits in Q3, driven by tariffs and unfavorable customer mix [55][56] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the cost profile? - The company does not expect material impact from steel inflation due to hedging and local sourcing, but tariffs are included in the $0.50 guidance for the year [106][108] Question: How is the company addressing customer caution in the market? - Management noted that larger customers are maintaining their cadence for negotiations, while smaller customers remain cautious due to economic uncertainty [64][94]