Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $44.13, with a recent price of $44.25, reflecting a 0.61% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $44.30, while the lowest was $43.64, indicating a bullish short-term trend for silver [1][4] Group 2 - President Trump criticized Walmart in May for passing tariff costs to consumers, setting a precedent for U.S. businesses [3] - Most tariff costs are currently borne by companies, but consumers may soon face these costs, potentially impacting consumer spending [3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing to half of last year's rate and employment stagnating [3] - Inflation risks are accumulating for consumers, and significant price increases by companies could provoke discontent from the Trump administration [3] - Michael Pearce from Oxford Economics noted that the burden of tariffs on the economy is increasing, with the most significant impact on consumers still to come [3] - The dollar may face dual pressures: short-term support if inflation exceeds expectations, but long-term weakness due to tariffs undermining consumer spending and economic growth [3] Group 3 - After three consecutive days of gains, the bullish momentum in silver has been released, with a focus on potential price adjustments [4] - Key support levels for silver are at $43.70 and $43.40, while resistance levels are at $44.40 and $44.70 [4]

摩根士丹利美股投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon认为，尽管标普500指数估值很高，但今年剩余时间内美国股市的牛市可能只会暂停一段时间。科技、金融和工业板块这些更具周期性的股票略显“超买”，但需要“拿住”，今年仍可能继续表现良好，部分原因是美联储上周刚刚重启降息周期，且经济衰退的迹象尚未显现。现在临近第四季度，股市仓位调整并非大势所趋，因为年初至今的赢家往往会在最后3个月继续发力。“市场大幅轮动”通常不会发生在第四季度。企业2025年和2026年的盈利最终可能会强于华尔街的预测，因为迄今为止，关税尚未造成许多人担心的拖累。部分企业已经削减成本以抵消关税的影响并保持利润率，这可能是近期美国招聘放缓的原因之一，企业可能“非常谨慎”地将关税成本转嫁给消费者。Slimmon表示，自己经常接到理财顾问的电话，询问美国股市何时可能回调，因为客户手头有现金可以投资。随着美联储重启降息，将现金投入货币市场基金的吸引力似乎有所减弱，因此投资者正在寻找更好的投资对象。尽管自己认为市场已经过度波动，但美国股市的上涨可能只会经历“暂停”，而非回调，部分原因是许多人“袖手旁观”，希望回调成为投资机会。 ...

周二公布的美国9月标普全球服务业PMI初值录得53.9，低于市场预期54，前值位54.5；美国9月标普全球制造业PMI初值 录得52，符合市场预期，前值位53。 标普全球首席经济学家威廉姆森表示，9月份产出进一步强劲增长，为美国企业今年迄今表现最好的一个季度画上了圆 满的句号。PMI调查数据与美国经济第三季度2.2%的年化增长率一致。然而，月度数据显示，经济增长已从7月份的近 期峰值放缓，9月份企业也缩减了招聘，未来生产面临一些下行风险。需求疲软的情况限制了企业定价权。尽管关税再 次被认为是制造业和服务业投入成本上升的一个驱动因素，但能够提高销售价格并将这些成本转嫁给客户的公司数量有 所下降，这暗示利润率受到挤压，但对通胀放缓是个好兆头。制造业方面也有迹象表明，令人失望的销售增长已导致库 存以前所未有的速度积累，这也可能在未来几个月进一步帮助缓解通胀。尽管如此，调查数据仍表明，未来几个月消费 者通胀仍将高于央行2%的目标。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，关税对消费者通胀的影响"并非主要因素"，我们预计关税将是一次性传导效应，到明年年底就 会结束。我们从不考虑政治因素。很多人不相信我们，很多人说我们是出于政治动机，这纯 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing and Services PMI Data - The initial reading of the Markit Manufacturing PMI for September is 52, indicating expansion for the second consecutive month, with a previous value of 53 in August and a year-on-year figure of 47.3 [2] - The initial reading of the Markit Services PMI for September is 53.9, the lowest since June 2025, down from 54.5 in August and 55.2 a year ago [2] - The initial reading of the Composite PMI for September is 53.6, also the lowest since June 2025, with a decline from 54.6 in August [2] Group 2: Employment and Pricing Indices - The employment index in the manufacturing sector decreased from 53.1 in August to 52.6 in September [2] - The employment index in the services sector fell to 51.6, the lowest since April 2025, down from 52 in August [2] - The price index in the services sector decreased, marking the lowest level since April 2025 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Economic Growth - Businesses' expectations for output over the next year rose to a four-month high, although still below the long-term average for both manufacturing and services [2] - The third quarter of 2023 is projected to show a year-on-year economic growth rate of 2.2% for the U.S. economy [2] - Business confidence improved in September, partly due to expectations of lower interest rates having a positive impact [5] Group 4: Inventory and Inflation Concerns - There are signs of disappointing sales growth in manufacturing leading to unprecedented inventory accumulation, which may help ease inflation in the coming months [5] - Despite the inventory buildup, there are concerns about potential downward risks to future production [5] - Consumer inflation is expected to remain above the central bank's 2% target in the coming months [5]

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with macroeconomic factors influencing the market. Fed Chairman Powell indicated risks of inflation and employment, reiterating that tariffs are expected to have a one-time impact on prices, without suggesting support for rate cuts next month. He also warned about high valuations in the US stock market, signaling potential risks [1] - Domestic monetary policy remains supportive, with the central bank's governor stating no adjustments to short-term policies are planned. The current stance is to implement moderately loose monetary policy [1] - Inventory levels showed a decrease in LME copper by 400 tons to 144,975 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 91 tons to 288,837 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 2,166 tons to 27,727 tons, and BC copper decreased by 25 tons to 6,445 tons [1] - Demand from downstream sectors is weak due to high copper prices and macroeconomic uncertainties, with concerns over pre-holiday inventory replenishment [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $15,340 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.47% to 121,740 yuan per ton. LME inventory rose by 1,554 tons to 230,454 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 72 tons to 25,464 tons [2] - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and stainless steel weekly inventory showed a significant decrease. Nickel iron prices strengthened, providing cost support, although supply increased [2] - In the new energy sector, demand for ternary materials slightly weakened in September, but cobalt policies may lead to tight MHP supply. The overall nickel price may see slight upward movement due to macroeconomic factors and rising nickel iron and MHP prices, although inventory remains a significant resistance [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed a weak trend, with AO2601 settling at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2510 at 20,670 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [3] - Aluminum alloy prices remained strong, with AD2511 at 20,305 yuan per ton, up 0.22%. SMM alumina prices fell to 3,032 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot prices showed a slight decrease [3] - The recovery of alumina plants has increased social inventory pressure, while domestic mines have not resumed production, leading to a decline in ore inventory. Overall, alumina remains bearish but may have reached a bottom [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak trend, with the main contract at 8,925 yuan per ton, down 2.3%. The reference price for industrial silicon was 9,604 yuan per ton, up 121 yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.74%. The N-type polysilicon price rose to 52,500 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in the minimum delivery price [4] - The energy consumption policy draft for polysilicon has slightly raised standards, but the overall impact remains moderate. There is a strong sentiment for production and export in the polysilicon market, leading to a divergence between policy and actual supply-demand dynamics [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2511 contract fell by 0.16% to 73,660 yuan per ton. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade was at 71,600 yuan per ton [5] - Import data showed that in August 2025, China imported 61.92 million tons of lithium spodumene, a decrease of 17.5% month-on-month. Carbonate imports increased by 57.8% month-on-month and 23.5% year-on-year [5] - Weekly production increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons, with significant contributions from various lithium extraction methods. Inventory levels decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, primarily driven by downstream replenishment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, aimed at addressing evident warning signs in the labor market [3]. - Powell mentioned that more than half of the Fed officials expect at least two more rate cuts this year, indicating possible actions in October and December [5]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - Powell highlighted a challenging situation where inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, emphasizing the dual risks involved [4]. - Recent data show a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, particularly with the impact of stricter immigration policies reducing labor supply [4][6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices appear relatively high based on various indicators, although he stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [7][10]. - Following the Fed's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching new historical highs [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that there is still room for further interest rate cuts while warning about high stock market valuations, which negatively impacted market sentiment and led to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [2][3][9]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasizes that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve—full employment and price stability—faces threats, with risks on both sides indicating no risk-free policy path [3][17]. - The current economic environment shows upward risks for inflation and downward risks for employment, leading to a challenging situation [3][17]. - The U.S. economy has shown resilience compared to other developed economies despite facing significant shocks from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [7][12]. Labor Market - Powell notes that the labor market is not robust, with signs of substantial weakness, and the risk of employment decline has increased [7][14]. - The unemployment rate has slightly risen to 4.3%, but remains low overall, with job growth slowing significantly [14][15]. - The average monthly job additions have dropped to only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [14]. Inflation and Tariffs - Powell reiterates that tariffs are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, leading to one-time price fluctuations that may last several quarters [3][16]. - Current inflation rates are above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with the latest data showing a 2.7% increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices over the past year [15][16]. - The increase in prices is primarily attributed to tariffs rather than broader price pressures, with service sector inflation still trending downward [15][16]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy stance to a more neutral position, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% [17][18]. - Powell maintains that the current policy stance is still moderately restrictive, allowing for better adaptation to changing economic conditions [18]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to evaluate and manage the risks of high inflation and persistent inflation to ensure that price increases do not evolve into a long-term inflation problem [16][17].

Group 1 - U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop on September 23, with major indices closing lower: Dow Jones down 0.19%, Nasdaq down 0.95%, and S&P 500 down 0.55% [1] - Major tech stocks saw declines, with Oracle down over 4%, Amazon down over 3%, Nvidia down over 2%, and Microsoft down over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.22%, with notable declines in Chinese concept stocks: Baidu down over 8%, Zhihu down over 5%, Bilibili down over 4%, and New Oriental and JD down nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increased risks in the job market, which influenced the Fed's recent decision to lower interest rates [1] - Powell described the Fed's policy shift as moving towards a "neutral" stance, emphasizing that there is no preset direction for future policies [1] - Current inflation levels remain slightly above target, with the August core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3%, primarily driven by tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [1] Group 3 - Powell noted that some asset prices are relatively high compared to historical levels, with stock price valuations appearing quite elevated based on various indicators [1] - Signs of slowing consumer spending and weakened business confidence were highlighted, alongside a decrease in labor market vitality [1] - Powell anticipates that tariffs may lead to a temporary rise in inflation over the next few quarters, but the Fed aims to prevent transient price increases from becoming a persistent issue [1] Group 4 - International gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the challenges posed by the current risk environment [2][4][5] Economic Outlook - Recent data shows a slowdown in economic growth, with GDP growth rate around 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year [19] - Unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, with job growth slowing significantly, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [18][19] - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.7% over the past year [20][21] Monetary Policy - Powell warns of the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, stating that there is no risk-free policy path [4][22] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% in response to the changing risk balance [23][24] - Powell believes the current policy stance is still moderately restrictive but allows for better adaptation to economic changes [24] Market Reactions - Powell's comments about high stock valuations led to a decline in major stock indices, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 1% [3][14] - The Fed's focus on the potential impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as a way to navigate political pressures while maintaining a cautious stance [5][9] Labor Market Insights - The labor market is described as showing signs of substantial weakness, with Powell noting that it can no longer be considered robust [10][12] - Job vacancies remain stable, but the overall employment growth is insufficient to maintain the current unemployment rate [18][19]

在上周美联储宣布降息后的首次公开演讲中，美联储主席鲍威尔和上周发布会上一样继续为进一步降息留下空间，并暗示 在有挑战的风险环境下会谨慎降息。在问答环节，鲍威尔警告股市估值太高，引发美股大盘下挫。 美东时间23日周二的演讲稿中，鲍威尔再次警告，联储的双重使命——充分就业和价格稳定均面临威胁，两面的风险意味 着没有毫无风险的政策路径。假如降息幅度过大或速度过快，可能无法有限控制高通胀、让通胀持续高于美联储2%的目 标，而假如货币紧缩维持太久，则可能无谓地拖累劳动力市场。 鲍威尔指出，"短期内通胀存在上行风险，就业则存在下行风险——这是一个有挑战的局面"。在"活力不足、略显疲软的劳 动力市场"形势下，就业下行的风险已增加。正是因为就业风险增加导致风险平衡变化，上周美联储才决定降息。 对于关税，鲍威尔重申，合理的预期是，关税对通胀将有短暂影响，只会导致一次性的价格波动。不过，"一次性"的波动 并不意味着"立即发生"，可能会持续几个季度。鲍威尔仍认为，美联储必须密切关注关税可能带来的持续性影响，称要确 保关税不会演变为持续性的通胀问题。 鲍威尔本次讲话没有透露任何信息，暗示他会不会在10月的下次美联储货币政策会议上支持 ...