Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of wheat futures prices and the impact of global supply on these prices, indicating a downward trend after a significant rise earlier in November [5][6] - It highlights the winter wheat emergence rate and crop conditions, noting a slight decline in the percentage of crops rated as good compared to the previous year [6] - The article also mentions the recent sales to China and the expected record wheat production in India, which may affect global wheat supply dynamics [7] Wheat Futures Prices - Wheat futures prices have remained stable or slightly declined, with December soft red winter wheat (SRW) at $5.27 per bushel, Kansas hard red winter wheat (HRW) down 4 cents to $5.11 per bushel, and hard red spring wheat (HRS) steady at $5.65 per bushel [5] - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December corn fell 5 cents to $4.25 per bushel, while January soybeans remained unchanged at $11.25 per bushel [5] Crop Conditions - The winter wheat emergence rate is currently at 79%, slightly below the five-year average of 84%, with about 45% of the crop rated in good condition, down from 49% last year [6] - The USDA projects total U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year to reach 24.5 million tons, with current contracts accounting for 60% of this total [6] Export Activity - Recent export sales include 132,000 tons of soft white wheat and 462,000 tons of soybeans to China, scheduled for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [7] - The article notes that the Pacific Northwest region's demand remains stable, while the Gulf region is relatively sluggish [5][7] Global Supply Dynamics - India is expected to achieve a record wheat production of 117.5 million tons due to expanded planting areas and favorable growing conditions, improving its wheat inventory [7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has strengthened to 2270 points, the highest in nearly two years, driven by increased demand for soybeans from China [7] Currency and Market Sentiment - The U.S. dollar index closed at 100.2, with market sentiment indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in December remains low despite mixed employment data [8]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the US dollar index rising sharply while gold prices are plummeting, leading to a turbulent environment for retail investors [1] Group 1: Currency and Market Dynamics - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 106.5, driven by increased demand for dollars as companies convert cash to avoid risks associated with tariffs [3][5] - Emerging market currencies are facing severe depreciation, with the Japanese yen falling below 155 and the Chinese yuan weakening to around 7.28 offshore [5][12] - The Chinese central bank is allowing the yuan to depreciate slightly to stabilize exports amid rising tariffs [15] Group 2: Commodity Market Reactions - Gold prices have seen a drastic decline from a high of 4371 USD to around 3990 USD, primarily due to the strong dollar increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - The drop in gold prices is also attributed to reduced geopolitical tensions and lower demand during the Indian festival season [7] Group 3: Impact on Investment and Sentiment - Retail investors are suffering significant losses, with many experiencing over 10% declines in their investments, particularly in high-risk assets like Bitcoin, which has halved in value [10][12] - The stock market is also under pressure, with the Nasdaq dropping over 8% in November, reflecting the sensitivity of tech stocks to interest rate changes [12] Group 4: Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with expectations for only 1-2 rate cuts remaining, which has contributed to rising bond yields and a stronger dollar [12] - The long-term outlook suggests that the current strength of the dollar may not be sustainable given the US's significant debt levels, indicating potential future market corrections [15]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月22日，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.02%，在汇市尾市收于 100.180。截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1513美元，低于前一交易日的1.1538美元；1英镑兑换1.3103 美元，高于前一交易日的1.3087美元。1美元兑换156.33日元，低于前一交易日的157.54日元；1美元兑 换0.8078瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的0.8054瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4094加元，高于前一交易日的 1.4091加元；1美元兑换9.5535瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.5446瑞典克朗。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, emphasizing the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics over short-term predictions influenced by geopolitical events and monetary policy changes [3][5][19]. Group 1: Short-term Price Predictions - Short-term predictions of gold prices are challenging and often unreliable due to various factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical stability, and profit-taking by investors [5][7]. - The correlation between interest rate expectations and gold prices has weakened, making it difficult for investors to rely on traditional analysis methods [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Traditional pricing logic for gold has become less effective, necessitating a focus on supply and demand factors [9][19]. - Gold supply has remained stable, with annual supply levels between 4500 tons and 5000 tons since 2015, primarily driven by mining and recycling [13][14]. - Demand for gold is influenced significantly by investment needs and central bank purchases, which can fluctuate by hundreds of tons annually [14][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Investment Demand - Central bank purchases of gold have surged due to geopolitical tensions, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the US dollar [15][16]. - Investment demand for gold has increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth of 87% in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a viable asset [16][17]. - The article suggests that the growing investment demand could drive future increases in gold prices, as more investors allocate funds to gold [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.6455 against the US dollar, influenced by rising inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious policy stance, and commodity price volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's trimmed mean inflation rate rose to 3% in Q3, with the CPI increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, marking the highest level since Q2 2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in October, but wage growth remains high, prompting the RBA to maintain a cautious approach with the current cash rate at 3.6% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment towards the AUD is mixed, with some institutions raising expectations due to persistent inflation, while others remain cautious due to global demand concerns [2]. - The AUD's movements are closely tied to commodity prices, particularly iron ore, which adds to the volatility [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD is in a "triangle consolidation" phase, with a key support level at 0.6450 and a trading range focused on 0.6430-0.6480 [3]. - The upper resistance level is at 0.6500, and if breached, it could open further upward movement [3]. - Technical indicators show a neutral signal, with the MACD near the zero line and RSI at 52, indicating a balanced market with no clear direction [3].

Group 1 - The September non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of around 50,000, indicating resilience in the U.S. job market [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August, contrary to market expectations of it remaining at 4.3%, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts [1][2] - The capital markets reacted with an initial jump in U.S. Treasury prices following the data release, suggesting a possible signal for a rate cut in December, although there remains market uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a brief increase post-data release but quickly fell, indicating a growing market expectation for a weaker dollar and potential interest rate cuts [2] - In the metals market, copper and aluminum prices saw slight increases, while gold and silver prices remained stable, reflecting mixed market sentiments regarding interest rate changes [2] - The final decision on interest rates will depend on a comprehensive assessment of various factors, including unemployment rates, job growth, and wage trends, with Fed Chair Powell's decision being pivotal [2]

报道还提到，奥安达的市场分析师克尔芬·翁表示："黄金现在正在下跌，主要原因是过去两周利率下降预期大 幅减少。"并预计："短期内，这将使黄金价格保持在4100美元以下，阻力位在4155美元。然后，可能会在3980 美元至4000美元之间波动。" 消息面上，上海黄金交易所发布通知称，近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多，为防范市场波动可能带来的风险， 请各会员单位继续做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行，并及时采取相应风控措施，提示投资者做好风险防 范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间11月21日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报 4076.7美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌0.98%报50.355美元/盎司。 半岛电视台近日发文称，黄金价格周四下跌，因美元走强及美联储12月降息预期减弱。美元指数升至两周高 位，其他货币相对美元贬值推高了黄金对持有者成本。目前交易者预计12月美联储降息概率降至33%，而通常 情况下，无收益的黄金在低利率环境和经济不确定性时期会上涨。市场关注因政府关门推迟发布的美国9月非农 就业报告，这可能影响美联储政策走向。 ...

新华财经纽约11月20日电美元指数20日下跌。 （文章来源：新华社） 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1538美元，高于前一交易日的1.1521美元；1英镑兑换1.3087美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3046美元。 1美元兑换157.54日元，高于前一交易日的157.03日元；1美元兑换0.8054瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8064瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.4091加元，高于前一交易日的1.4057加元；1美元兑换9.5446瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.5628瑞典克朗。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.07%，在汇市尾市收于100.159。 ...

来源：滚动播报 非农数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线上涨后大幅下挫，波幅近30点。 ...