今年以来，我国实施"更加积极有为"的宏观政策，支持实体经济发展力度加大，推动经济持续回升向 好。 根据中央政治局会议部署，"十五五"开局之年，我国宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不变，继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。同时，明年将加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 "继续实施"今年财政、货币政策取向，不仅意味着明年政策将保持连续性、稳定性，营造出稳定的宏观 政策环境，还意味着明年政策力度依然可期，将坚持支持性的政策立场。 从财政政策看，"更加积极"意味着明年财政政策有望加力提效。中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙 学工表示，明年更加积极的财政政策要加大中央政府支出力度，可以考虑将预算赤字率提高到4.5%， 继续增发特别国债，确保中央政府持续发力。 值得注意的是，明年在加大逆周期调节力度的同时，也将加大跨周期调节。"总体上，'跨周期'提法的 回归意味着货币政策视角更重长期。"华泰证券研究所所长张继强在近期研报中指出，明年转型诉求不 减，增长诉求同样强，因此政策需要兼顾短期与长远，更要为未来几年的风险挑战做足准备。 从货币政策看，"适度宽松"的货币政策意味着明年货币政策既有"宽松"，也要"适度"。财信证券 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, focusing on various sectors including the midstream manufacturing industry, real estate, and the overall stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4.8%-4.9%, with nominal GDP growth at approximately 4.5% [5][6][12] - Retail sales growth could reach 4%-4.5% under certain subsidy assumptions, while export growth is projected to maintain resilience at about 5% [5][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rise from -3.1% this year to a range of 0%-1%, with manufacturing expected to grow by 2% and real estate continuing to decline by -10% to -13% [5][7] Fiscal Policy and Price Trends - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with budget expenditure growth around 5% and new government debt between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion [6][8] - CPI is projected to gradually rise and turn positive, while PPI trends are uncertain, with potential for stabilization in midstream PPI in the first half of 2026 [6][9][10] Midstream Manufacturing Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is highlighted as the most promising area, benefiting from a recovery with overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins for the first time, reaching 25%-30% [13][16] - Demand growth in this sector has outpaced supply growth for over a year, indicating a recovery in return on equity (ROE) [13][16] Stock Market Outlook - A strategic bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026 is maintained, although the pace of valuation increases and the outperformance of the ChiNext index may weaken [21][23] - The focus will shift towards sectors with low valuation percentiles and high dividend yields, such as insurance and home appliances [23][24] Bond Market Perspective - A cautious view on the bond market is expressed, with expectations of rising yields, particularly for ten-year government bonds, which are projected to exceed 2% [26] - The bond market is considered relatively expensive compared to equities, and adjustments are anticipated [26] Additional Important Insights Uncertainties in Policy Implementation - Several uncertainties regarding policy implementation are identified, including the use of special bonds and the structure of long-term special government bonds [8] - The impact of service consumption subsidies on the service sector and overall economic performance remains to be seen [8] Key Timeframes for Investors - Two critical timeframes in 2026 are highlighted: January for CPI expectations and around May for PPI consensus, which are significant for macroeconomic assessments [12] Investment Focus Areas - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high capacity utilization and low capital expenditure, such as synthetic fibers, black metals, oil and gas, and general equipment [25] - The midstream manufacturing sector is emphasized as the most reliable investment direction due to its current performance and growth potential [20] Future of Real Estate Market - The real estate market's future remains uncertain, with a need for policy support to stabilize prices, especially given the current oversupply situation [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, sector performance, and investment strategies for 2026.

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance demand, optimize supply, and achieve a balanced economic structure, aiming for a good start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The meeting highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand and stimulating effective investment to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in the Chinese economy [1][2] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from the previous year's target, while still maintaining a medium to high growth level [2] Group 2 - The meeting stresses the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth, with an emphasis on integrating stock and incremental policies [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate is suggested to increase to 4.5% to 5% in 2026, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to create incremental demand and adjust the economic structure [5] - The analysis indicates that approximately 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funds will be needed to support the targeted 5% economic growth in 2026, with specific allocations for special bonds and local government debt [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a shift in the macroeconomic policy tone, maintaining a positive stance while introducing new terms such as "increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [2][3] - The report indicates that fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be "more proactive" and "moderately loose," with specific policy measures to be clarified in future central economic work meetings [2][3] - The prioritization of risk mitigation has been moved to the last item in the agenda, suggesting that the current overall risk is relatively controllable, and future efforts will focus on "active and prudent" risk resolution [2][3] Group 2 - The report notes that the phrase "stabilizing the real estate and stock markets" was not reiterated in the latest meeting, indicating a potential shift in focus towards broader economic stability rather than specific market interventions [2][3] - It suggests that the capital market's performance in the coming year will depend on further detailed arrangements from the upcoming central economic work meeting, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook [2][3] - Historical data indicates that December has historically favored large-cap stocks, which may be relevant for investment strategies moving forward [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in China's economy by expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stimulating effective investment demand, while also optimizing and expanding effective supply through innovation to achieve structural balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth Targets - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 discussed the economic work for 2026, proposing a more proactive macro policy to enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of policies, aiming to maintain social stability and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the GDP growth target for 2026 will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, a slight decrease from the 2025 target of around 5.0%, reflecting a focus on high-quality development and maintaining necessary policy space [3][4]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Investment - The article suggests that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 should be raised to 4.5% to 5%, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to support an estimated 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funding needed for a 5% growth target [7]. - It is proposed that special bonds remain at 1.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond quotas slightly increasing to 5.1 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects and debt clearance [7][8]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to reflect a "one flat three rises" approach, maintaining the fiscal deficit rate while increasing the scale of special bonds and quasi-fiscal policy tools [8]. Group 3: Economic Environment and Structural Adjustments - The article notes that China has transitioned from an incremental growth phase to one focused on existing stock, necessitating structural adjustments and the enhancement of technological innovation to achieve high-quality growth [3][4]. - The need for significant project investments in the early part of 2026 is emphasized, particularly in light of internal pressures such as aging and external challenges like geopolitical tensions and industrial chain restructuring [6].

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 中泰证券（600918）研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅告诉记者，"前瞻性"是指，对于经济运行后续可能 面临的问题、暴露的风险，宏观政策会提前谋划、提前应对，尽可能熨平经济运行可能面临的风险隐 患。"针对性"是指，对于重点任务、重点问题、重点风险，宏观政策会采取针对性手段予以处置。"协 同性"是指，政策实施过程中将更加注重形成各个部门、各个层级之间的合力。 对于"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉记者，这既是延续政策稳定性 的需要，更是当前扩大需求的需要。为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地产市场，有必要以更大力 度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as the Central Economic Work Conference in December approaches, policy signals are likely to focus on structural optimization and stable growth, with fiscal policy expected to adopt a more proactive stance in 2026, the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The market's attention is expected to be on the fiscal policy expectations from the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly if the deficit rate and fiscal spending intensity align with market expectations, which could create trading opportunities in small-cap, more elastic consumer sectors such as cultural tourism and offline retail [1] Group 2 - The Guotai Zhongzheng 500 ETF (561350) tracks the CSI 500 Index (000905), which covers growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics, featuring a balanced industry distribution aimed at reflecting the overall performance of small-cap listed companies in the A-share market [1]