转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电（记者刘玉龙）近日，"深化京港协同，赋能金融高水平开放——资产管理行业在'十五五'开放格局下的发展机遇"金融街论坛系列 活动在北京举办。参会人士分析了京港金融市场互联互通的重要性，普遍认为全球金融格局正经历深刻转变，香港金融市场的作用更加突出，是海内外金融 机构进行全球资产配置、促进科技创新的重要市场。 香港大学副校长、金融学讲座教授林晨在主旨演讲时表示，过去几年，区块链技术革新推动了跨境支付结算体系升级，是金融基础设施领域的重大事件。相 比传统跨境支付结算方式，基于区块链的跨境支付在耗时、成本、流程等方面更加具备优势，而未来黄金、美股、美债或将成为资产上链的重点方向。 全国社会保障基金理事会原副理事长王忠民在主旨演讲时指出，当前，香港金融市场的功能作用主要体现在三个方面。一是供应链金融或者产业链金融领 域，伴随全球科技产业链的变迁，也牵动金融服务体系和产品的变革，香港市场能够提供一个好的应用场景。二是要充分应用香港金融市场成熟的金融风险 管理工具缓释、对冲风险。三是要把一些创新产品在香港市场试点，更好的推动金融创新。 活动的圆桌论坛环节，参会人士围绕"跨境资产管理中的 ...

特朗普政府终于松口了，在最新一版美国国家安全战略文件里，白纸黑字地承认，中国已经是一个和美国"近乎同等实力"的世界强国。要知道，几年前，他 们挂在嘴边的还是"从实力地位出发"和中国对话。 这个转变，就像一场持续多年的拔河比赛，裁判突然吹哨，承认两边势均力敌了。美国甚至还抛出了一个"特朗普版门罗主义"，说要战略收缩，把重点放回 自家西半球的后院。很多人调侃，美国这是从"全球球长"退位成了"西半球球长"。 美国为什么选在这个时间点"低头"？这背后可不是认输，而是三重精明的算计。首先，这是被现实逼到了墙角。中国的工业产能和经济发展摆在那里，贸易 战、科技战打了好几年，中国经济的韧劲反而更足了。 特朗普政府觉得，再硬撑着"世界唯一超级大国"的面子有点自欺欺人，不如承认现实，好歹还能给自己全球战略收缩找个像样的台阶下。其次，这是一招激 将法。把中国渲染成和美国"平起平坐"的对手，能极大地刺激美国国内的危机感，好凝聚两党遏华的政治共识，同时也能给欧洲和印太的盟友施压，催着他 们赶紧站队、一起出力。 最后，这里头还藏着一个不便明说的小心思：承认双方体量相当，也是在暗示，两个巨无霸要是真打起来，后果谁都承受不起。所以，未来的 ...

【邀请诺贝尔奖、图灵奖得主、两院院士、各行业专家，请联系五洲名家智库】 近期，多边数字货币桥项目落地引发广泛关注，数字货币再次成为金融领域的热议焦点。作为数字经济时代的金融新形态，它的发展方向、风险边界一直备 受瞩目。今天就带大家听听黄益平、欧阳卫民、吴晓求三位金融权威的专业解读。 名人邀约|诺贝尔奖|诺贝尔奖获得者|诺奖代言|诺奖得主赋能背书|经济学家|邀请诺奖得主出席活动|大会嘉宾邀约|嘉宾推荐|院士邀请|中国名家论坛|会议活动 邀请|论坛峰会嘉宾邀约大健康 黄益平：明确法定数字货币与数字资产边界 著名金融专家黄益平强调，要明确区分央行数字货币与比特币等数字资产。他指出，数字人民币是主权信用支 撑的法定货币，具有法偿性，这与无内在价值、价格波动剧烈的比特币有本质区别。同时，黄益平提醒，全球数字资产市场发展已成趋势，需建立防套利监 管框架，加强跨境监管协调，在风险可控前提下把握创新机遇。 欧阳卫民：坚守数字货币创新底线 中国金融学会副会长欧阳卫民则聚焦金融创新的底线。他认为，数字货币相关创新必须坚守基本原理，尊重历史规律和 监管边界，警惕脱离实践的"伪创新"。在他看来，数字货币作为未来金融改革的重要方向，应 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global economic environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on corporate profitability driving equity markets, while investors should be cautious of risks amid market volatility [1][2]. Macroeconomic Outlook - China's economy is projected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with moderate inflation and a focus on industrial transformation and balancing development with security [1]. - The U.S. economy is anticipated to achieve a "soft landing," with manageable short-term inflation pressures, while the AI technology revolution continues to be a core driver across economic cycles [2]. Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is entering a phase where growth will depend more on actual corporate earnings rather than valuation expansion, following a valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - Investment strategies should focus on four main paths: growth sectors with sustained momentum, globally competitive leading companies, areas with improved supply-demand dynamics, and new opportunities from the industrialization of frontier technologies [2]. Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by a loose funding environment and potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3]. - Credit bonds remain attractive due to stable institutional demand, with a recommended strategy of focusing on medium to short-duration bonds with favorable yields [3]. Alternative Assets - Gold is projected to continue its bull market in 2026, supported by expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. - The commodity market is expected to trend upwards, with significant opportunities in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products due to changing supply dynamics and favorable liquidity conditions [5]. Quantitative Strategies - The environment for excess returns in stock quantitative strategies is expected to be favorable, with a significant portion of private equity funds now allocated to quantitative strategies [5]. - Market-neutral products are anticipated to provide stable alpha returns by effectively isolating systemic risks in a low-interest-rate environment [5].

文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 近期美国官方层面罕见公开承认中美实力已基本持平，这一打破过往认知的表态，迅速引发了国际金融 市场的连锁反应，各国央行开启狂囤黄金的密集动作，俄罗斯也顺势主动推出人民币主权债。 这些举措并非孤立存在，其背后既藏着各国对未来经济风险的预判，也预示着国际货币体系的深层重 构。那么这些动作究竟有何内在关联？又会给全球金融秩序带来哪些长远影响？ 美方实力持平表态的深层认知转变 长期以来，美国在国际话语权体系中保持着对自身实力优势的强调，即便近年中美在多个领域的差距持 续缩小，其官方表述也多以竞争或优势弱化来定义双边关系. 此次美方明确承认中美实力持平，是基于多维度数据的战略认知调整。从经济层面来看，2024年国际货 币基金组织发布的报告显示，按购买力平价计算，中国经济体量已连续多年稳居全球首位。 在制造业产值、货物贸易总额等核心指标上也保持领先，美国在传统经济优势领域的壁垒正逐步消解, 科技领域，中美在5G基站建设、新能源汽车产业链、量子计算等前沿赛道的差距不断收窄，部分领域 甚至形成分庭抗礼的格局。 在全球治理层面，中国推动的多边合作机制影响力持续提升，与美国主导的传统国际框架形 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the securities industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The securities industry is increasingly recognized for its importance in the capital market, serving as a financing hub and guiding the reallocation of household savings. Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, securities firms have assisted nearly 1,200 technology innovation companies in going public and facilitated over 51 trillion yuan in domestic equity and debt financing [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for securities firms to enhance their service capabilities to the real economy through a "three-in-one" model of investment research, investment, and investment banking, particularly focusing on key national priorities such as artificial intelligence and green energy [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation of household wealth allocation from real estate to the stock market, driven by demographic changes and economic factors, positioning securities firms as key players in this transition [3]. - The report discusses the global asset reallocation opportunities and the role of securities firms in enhancing the weight and pricing power of the renminbi in global asset allocation [3]. - The report anticipates a shift in competition within the securities industry from price-based to value-based, with a differentiation between leading comprehensive brokers and regional specialty brokers [3]. - The report suggests that the securities industry is poised for a new phase of growth driven by improved performance, clearer policies, and the easing of financial pressures, with a notable mismatch between fundamentals and stock prices [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The securities industry has played a crucial role in supporting the real economy and facilitating significant capital market activities, including the listing of technology firms and extensive financing efforts [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant shift in household asset allocation trends, with a growing preference for stock investments over real estate, influenced by various economic factors [3]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines a future competitive landscape characterized by two types of firms: leading comprehensive brokers focusing on value creation and regional brokers specializing in niche markets [3]. Investment Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the securities industry's future, driven by favorable market conditions and regulatory support, suggesting a potential revaluation of the sector [3].

现在的中国外汇储备家底相当厚实，11月末达到33464亿美元，连续四个月站稳3.3万亿美元，创下近十年新高。一边是持续增持黄金，一边是悄悄减少美债 持有，中国正在用实际行动重构外储"安全垫"。更关键的是，中国还推出了黄金税收新政，让黄金从普通商品变成重要金融工具，再加上"上海金"定价机 制，慢慢争夺全球黄金定价权，这都是在为人民币国际化打基础。 中国的动作已经引发连锁反应，菲律宾、巴西等国也跟着增持黄金，越来越多国家意识到美元体系靠不住，黄金的战略价值正在回归。与此同时，人民币在 国际市场上越来越吃香，大宗商品人民币结算比例不断提升，周边国家发行的人民币债券同比增长四倍，连柬埔寨都把黄金存到中国金库。这说明中国不是 靠强制推销，而是用稳定和规则赢得了信任，这正是美国霸权最缺的东西。 最近国际舞台上的大戏接连上演，一边是特朗普放出2026年4月访华的风声，外界纷纷猜测他想拉中国帮忙稳住美债；另一边中国央行12月7日突然晒出黄金 储备成绩单，截至11月末已连续13个月增持，总量达到7412万盎司。这看似不相关的两件事，实则是中美战略博弈的最新注脚，而美国维持多年的霸权地 位，正在这场无声的较量中悄然松动。 要读懂 ...

Core Insights - The recent increase in China's gold reserves and Russia's issuance of RMB-denominated sovereign bonds signal a shift in global currency dynamics, potentially impacting the international status of the US dollar [1][3][5] Group 1: US Strategic Shift - The US is refocusing its strategic priorities towards the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing "America First" and requiring allies to take on more defense responsibilities [3][5] - This strategy reflects a combination of resource concentration in areas with higher returns while maintaining influence through maritime routes and financial sanctions [3][5] - The US acknowledges China as a near-peer competitor while aiming to avoid direct conflict, allowing for strategic flexibility [3][5] Group 2: China's Gold Reserve Strategy - China's official gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces by November 2025, increasing by 30,000 ounces, continuing a trend of accumulation since late 2024 [5][7] - This strategy aims to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets and enhance the role of gold as a stable reserve asset, thereby managing market expectations [7][9] - The consistent disclosure of reserve data helps anchor market expectations and supports a pricing structure that enhances China's influence in global markets [7][9] Group 3: Russia's RMB Sovereign Bonds - Russia's issuance of RMB-denominated sovereign bonds, totaling 20 billion yuan, marks a significant shift in financing channels from traditional dollar or euro systems to the RMB [9][11] - This move is expected to attract entities holding RMB into a sovereign-backed asset pool, enhancing the credibility and appeal of RMB assets [9][11] Group 4: Challenges to the Dollar - The dollar's strength is rooted in its clearing network and legal protections, but the increasing use of RMB in commodity transactions poses a long-term challenge [11][13] - A decline in the dollar's transaction frequency could lead to higher costs for maintaining global capital inflows, complicating the US's financial position [11][13] - The diminishing effectiveness of economic sanctions as alternative financing channels develop could further weaken the dollar's dominance [11][13] Group 5: Future of Currency Dynamics - The transition towards a more fragmented currency landscape suggests that the dollar's singular dominance is shifting towards a multi-currency system [16][18] - For businesses and investors, diversifying currency exposure and incorporating risk variables into financial models will be crucial in navigating this evolving landscape [16][18] - The internationalization of the RMB hinges on establishing a robust framework for accessible, holdable, hedged, and exit-capable assets [18]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

数字人民币的推广对金融普惠具有重要意义。对于偏远地区居民、老年人等群体，数字人民币提供了更便捷的金融服务渠道。 通过智能合约功能，数字人民币还能实现定向支付、条件支付等创新应用，在财政补贴、消费券发放等领域展现出独特价值。 在跨境支付方面，数字人民币也有望为人民币国际化提供新的技术支撑。 从试点情况来看，数字人民币的接受度正在逐步提高。各大银行纷纷推出数字人民币钱包，商户受理环境持续改善。用户可以 通过数字人民币APP轻松开立钱包，并支持绑定银行账户进行充值。部分试点地区还推出了数字人民币红包活动，让用户体验 这种新型支付方式的便利。 展望未来，数字人民币的发展将是一个渐进的过程。它不会取代现有支付工具，而是形成有益补充，共同构建多元化的支付体 系。随着技术不断成熟和应用场景持续拓展，数字人民币有望在促进金融创新、提升支付效率、保障金融安全等方面发挥更大 作用，为数字经济时代提供更加优质的金融服务。作为普通用户，不妨尝试使用数字人民币，感受数字金融带来的新体验。 随着数字人民币试点范围逐步扩大，越来越多的人开始接触这种新型支付方式。作为一种由国家信用背书的数字法定货币，数 字人民币正在悄然改变我们的支付习惯。 ...