在宏观层面有增长确定性、在产业层面提供供给确定性、在制度层面提供规则确定性、在金融层面提供 稳定锚。 （来源：财闻） 1月10日举办的2026年中国经济学家论坛年会上，全国政协常委、民建中央原副主席周汉民发表演讲。 周汉民表示，2025年世界经济低增长成为常态，但增长逻辑并未断裂。展望2026年，世界经济的不稳定 性主要来自结构层面，而非周期层面。 在这样的背景下，中国的角色要预判一切风险，用自身稳定的发展为世界提供稀缺的稳定性。 为此，他强调中国将提供四个层面的稳定性供给： 一、宏观层面的增长确定性：通过扩大内需、优化投资结构、培育新质生产力，保持中高速、可持续、 可预期的增长。 二、在产业层面提供供给确定性：中国未来的核心优势不再只是成本，重点不再是坚持物美价廉，而是 完整的工业体系、持续迭代的技术能力以及规模化的应用场景，这是中国能够在新能源、高端制造、数 字经济等领域为全球提供稳定供给的基础。 三、在制度层面提供规则确定性：通过持续高水平制度性开放，推动区域和多边合作，降低制度摩擦的 成本，尤其是要反对以安全之名行保护主义之实的言行。 四、在金融层面提供稳定锚：通过加速人民币国际化、区域金融合作和金融 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the connection between Trump's actions against Maduro and the broader strategy to hinder the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][4] - The internationalization of the Renminbi has made significant progress, with its weight in the IMF's SDR basket rising to third place, and overseas holdings of Renminbi assets exceeding 10 trillion yuan, marking a four-year high [3] - Venezuela, under Maduro's leadership, has been a pioneer in promoting Renminbi internationalization and "de-dollarization," making it a target for Trump's actions [4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the internationalization of the Renminbi is an unstoppable trend, driven by China's status as the world's largest trading nation and the efficiency of using Renminbi for trade settlements [7] - The U.S. dollar's role as a weapon for wealth extraction has led to growing dissatisfaction among countries, making "de-dollarization" a global trend that the Renminbi internationalization aligns with [7] - China's strategic control over key minerals and materials is presented as a countermeasure against U.S. provocations, reinforcing the momentum of Renminbi internationalization [5]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of interest on the balance of real-name digital RMB wallets by major Chinese banks marks a significant shift from digital currency to digital deposits, enhancing the attractiveness of digital RMB as a store of value and promoting its active use [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Payment on Digital RMB Wallets - Starting January 1, 2026, major banks in China will pay interest on the balances of real-name digital RMB wallets at the same rate as their demand deposit rates, currently set at 0.05% [2][5]. - Interest will be calculated and credited on specific dates throughout the year, and only real-name wallets will be eligible for interest, excluding anonymous wallets due to regulatory compliance [2][3]. Group 2: Transition to Digital Deposits - The People's Bank of China has initiated a transition from digital cash to digital deposit currency, with a new framework and management system set to launch in 2026 [3][5]. - This transition allows users to enjoy both payment convenience and interest income, integrating digital RMB into the banking system and enhancing wealth management opportunities [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Commercial Banks - The shift to interest-bearing digital RMB balances will convert these funds into stable liabilities for banks, improving their lending capacity and profitability [4][5]. - The digital RMB will now be treated as a direct liability of commercial banks, allowing them to manage these balances within their asset-liability frameworks [4][5]. Group 4: Expansion of Digital RMB Applications - The digital RMB is expected to expand its application beyond simple payments to include savings, loans, and investments, enhancing its role in the financial ecosystem [4][6]. - Banks are encouraged to develop comprehensive financial products around interest-bearing wallets, targeting various sectors such as supply chain finance and cross-border payments [8]. Group 5: Internationalization of the RMB - The current global trend towards "de-dollarization" presents a unique opportunity for the internationalization of the RMB, with digital RMB facilitating innovative cross-border payment solutions [9]. - Enhancing user willingness to hold and use digital RMB, along with encouraging banks to promote its adoption, is crucial for its success in international markets [9][10].

新华财经上海1月9日电 2026年熊猫债市场本周正式拉开帷幕。据新华财经熊猫债数据库显示，开年首周的发行额已达70亿元。 中证鹏元分析师梁欣华表示，2022年以来，受益于监管政策持续释放利好、人民币融资成本优势愈发突出、人民币汇率趋稳等因素，熊 猫债券发行规模持续增长。随着监管部门接连发布熊猫债券资金管理新政，熊猫债券资金用途便利性持续提升，预计将进一步刺激熊猫 债券的发行增长以及熊猫债券市场的深度发展。 多重因素利好熊猫债市场 多位业内人士指出，受益于政策利好、人民币成本优势及汇率趋稳。以及熊猫债本身资金用途便利性提升进一步刺激了市场需求的快速 增长。 中国银行最新报告表示，自2014年梅赛德斯-奔驰集团开启跨国公司熊猫债先河以来，以威立雅、宝马、大众、巴斯夫、汉高等为代表的 二十余家国际巨头相继入场。随着美联储降息通道的开启，近年来熊猫债以其融资成本优势正越来越受外资发行人的青睐。 1月9日，德国工业巨头汉高集团发行的15亿元熊猫债于正式上市起息， 该笔熊猫债是2026年首只纯境外熊猫债，也是汉高集团首次亮相 熊猫债市场，对进一步提升熊猫债市场国际影响力具有积极意义。此前，1月6日，中国燃气控股有限公司率 ...

Core Insights - Starting from January 1, 2026, digital renminbi (e-CNY) will begin to accrue interest, marking a significant shift in its functionality and regulatory status [1][2] - The introduction of interest on digital renminbi signifies its formal inclusion in the regulatory and banking asset framework, enhancing its credibility and usability in both domestic and international contexts [1][3] Group 1: Institutional Upgrades - The interest-bearing feature serves as an incentive mechanism, transitioning digital renminbi from a "cash-like" to a "deposit-like" asset, encouraging users to retain funds [2] - Digital renminbi's inclusion in the deposit insurance system provides a clear institutional backing for its safety, moving beyond mere verbal assurances [2] - The emergence of digital renminbi as a deposit-like asset will necessitate a re-evaluation of monetary statistics and reserve requirements, posing significant governance challenges [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Expansion - The cross-border strategy for digital renminbi relies on a combination of interfaces, rules, and scenarios, emphasizing the importance of clear settlement paths and compliance [3] - As of November 2025, digital renminbi has processed 3.48 billion transactions worth 16.7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion of cross-border payments facilitated through the mBridge project [3] - Despite the progress, the mBridge platform is not yet a viable alternative to the SWIFT system, indicating that its adoption will be gradual and context-specific [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The digital renminbi is positioned to evolve into a systematic product that is replicable, governable, auditable, and accessible, moving beyond mere technological competition [5] - The internationalization of the renminbi is shifting from a theoretical discussion to a practical consideration for many institutions, as it becomes a credible infrastructure option [5] - The introduction of interest on digital renminbi represents a pivotal moment in its development, potentially transforming it into a fully functional currency with time-based incentives [6]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of interest on digital renminbi starting January 1, 2026, represents a significant transformation in financial security, banking motivation, and national financial strategy, beyond just earning interest on deposits [1]. Group 1: Digital Renminbi and Interest - Digital renminbi will officially enter the interest-bearing era, allowing users to earn interest on their balances, which shifts the perception of digital currency from "dead money" to an asset that generates income [13][15]. - The transition of digital renminbi from "central bank liabilities" to "bank deposits" enables banks to utilize these funds for lending, thus creating profit opportunities [15][17]. Group 2: Smart Contracts and Consumer Protection - The implementation of smart contracts addresses consumer concerns regarding prepayments, ensuring that funds are only released under specific conditions, thereby protecting users from potential business failures [5][9]. - Smart contracts can also facilitate targeted spending, allowing users to restrict how funds are used, which enhances financial management and reduces the risk of fraud, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly [7][9]. Group 3: Financial Security and Transparency - The digital renminbi enhances financial security by being fully regulated and traceable, which helps prevent financial risks and ensures transparency in transactions [20]. - The system's design aims to provide a secure payment environment, safeguarding against issues that could arise from unregulated private payment platforms [18][20]. Group 4: International Implications - The digital renminbi, in conjunction with platforms like mBridge, offers a viable alternative to the traditional SWIFT system, potentially reducing reliance on the US dollar and enhancing the international influence of the renminbi [22][24]. - The growing adoption of the digital renminbi among countries along the Belt and Road Initiative signifies its strategic importance in global trade and finance [24][26].

Development Overview - Digital Renminbi is a digital form of legal currency issued by the central bank, characterized by legal tender status, security, high convenience, and programmability [1] - As of November 2025, Digital Renminbi has processed a total of 3.48 billion transactions, with a cumulative transaction amount of 16.7 trillion yuan [1][24] - The dual-layer operational system involves the central bank issuing Digital Renminbi and designated operating institutions providing exchange and circulation services [1][19] Future Outlook - The necessity of developing sovereign digital currencies is highlighted due to risks posed by cryptocurrencies and global stablecoins [2] - Approximately 130 countries, accounting for 98% of the global economy, are exploring digital versions of their currencies, with many in advanced development stages [2][28] - Digital Renminbi is expected to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and support the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][26] Industry Chain - The issuance layer focuses on technologies such as digital encryption, network security, and identity authentication, which are crucial for ensuring transaction data integrity and user privacy [4] - The circulation layer requires banks and third-party payment institutions to upgrade their systems to accommodate Digital Renminbi [4] - The application layer involves upgrading payment terminals and digital wallets to facilitate the use of Digital Renminbi [4] Investment Recommendations - Digital Renminbi plays a significant role in promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and has numerous application scenarios both domestically and internationally [4] - The demand for technological upgrades and software/hardware modifications across the issuance, circulation, and application layers presents opportunities for relevant technology and product providers [4]

数字人民币2.0版本来了！日前中国人民银行发布《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施 建设的行动方案》，称今年1月1日正式启动实施新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系。 数字人民币推行10年后，迈向"新纪元"。 值得一提的是，新版数字人民币不再局限于移动支付功能，而是能像活期存款一样计息，同时无需网络也能完成 支付。 正如一位银行工作人员所说："由于微信、支付宝的用户黏性强，导致数字人民币一直没有得到全面推广。"那 么，这次升级换代后的数字人民币能否得到更进一步的推广？ 新版数字人民币有何利好？ 据权威消息，数字人民币是人民银行发行的数字形式的法定货币，由指定运营机构参与运营，以广义账户体系为 基础，支持银行账户松耦合功能，与实物人民币等价，具有价值特征和法偿性。 和数字人民币1.0版本相比，对于普通消费者，数字人民币2.0有以下几点优势：首先，数字人民币钱包余额能计付 利息。日前，中国工商银行、中国建设银行、中国农业银行、中国银行、中国邮政储蓄银行、交通银行、招商银 行、兴业银行、网商银行(支付宝)、微众银行(微信支付)。都宣称将开立在该行的数字人民币实名钱包（一类、二 ...

数字人民币2.0版本来了！日前中国人民银行发布《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金 融基础设施建设的行动方案》，称今年1月1日正式启动实施新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运 行机制和生态体系。数字人民币推行10年后，迈向"新纪元"。 值得一提的是，新版数字人民币不再局限于移动支付功能，而是能像活期存款一样计息，同时无需网络 也能完成支付。 正如一位银行工作人员所说："由于微信、支付宝的用户黏性强，导致数字人民币一直没有得到全面推 广。"那么，这次升级换代后的数字人民币能否得到更进一步的推广？ 新版数字人民币有何利好？ 据权威消息，数字人民币是人民银行发行的数字形式的法定货币，由指定运营机构参与运营，以广义账 户体系为基础，支持银行账户松耦合功能，与实物人民币等价，具有价值特征和法偿性。 数字人民币在过去十年的试点、推广中取得了可圈可点的成绩，但至今没有得到全面推广和全民使用。 南都N视频记者了解到，堵点不在于技术，而在于社会公众和商业银行等主体意愿不足。 和数字人民币1.0版本相比，对于普通消费者，数字人民币2.0有以下几点优势：首先，数字人民币钱包 余额能计付利息。日前，中国工商银行、中国建设 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. interest in Venezuelan oil, highlighting that achieving control over these resources within three years is unlikely due to the unstable social environment in Venezuela [1] Group 1: U.S. Interest in Venezuelan Oil - President Trump mentioned "oil" 26 times during a press conference, indicating a strong interest in Venezuelan oil resources, which are the largest proven reserves globally [1] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may not be able to monopolize Venezuelan oil, drawing parallels to the situation in Iraq post-Saddam, where the U.S. did not gain exclusive access to oil resources [1] Group 2: Investment Risks - U.S. oil companies are hesitant to invest heavily in Venezuela due to significant risks and uncertainties, making it difficult to predict when investments would become profitable [1] - The need for a stable social environment for oil infrastructure investment is emphasized, with experts predicting that Trump's ambitions regarding Venezuelan oil are unlikely to materialize within the next three years [1] Group 3: China's Position - Venezuela is a key partner for China in oil production and supply chains, with substantial Chinese investments in exploration and refining [1] - In 2025, Venezuelan oil is expected to account for 4% of China's oil imports, indicating its importance despite the small percentage [1] - Experts note that Venezuela's oil resources are crucial for ensuring China's energy supply chain security and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1]