报告正文 事件： 12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法 治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提2025年4月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对外部环境不确定性的 关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。 这一表述在2024年12月会议"更好统筹发展和安全"基础上深化延伸，既体现 对内外双重任务的统筹考量，也与"十五五"规划建议的形势判断相契合，精准呼应"以国内循环的稳定性对冲 国际循环的不确定性"的核心要求。 会议以"提质增效"替代"以进促稳"，凸显对政策质量、效率与可持续性的平衡考量。 会议延续提出"继续实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，更强调"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。2026年财政政策 或将保持扩张取向并优化支出结构。中性情景预期赤字率维持在4%左右，特别国债与新增专项债规模较2025 年小幅扩张；货币政策更注重流动性呵护，结构上以精准支持为核心，预计央行可能实施1次幅度约10BP的降 息。 会议提出"推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长"，锚定 ...

来源：一瑜中的 一、篇幅"短"——篇幅非常短，往往意味着经济工作会议大概率几天内召开 核心内容篇幅极短：本次政治局会议通稿与经济相关的核心内容仅934字，接近历史最低水平（2024年 为924字）。 会议召开的时间预判：根据以往经验，政治局会议先开定调，经济工作会议后开部署。通稿篇幅越短， 通常意味着经济工作会议有可能将在2-4天内召开。 政策细节披露时间：预计更多政策细节将在几天后的经济工作会议通稿中公布（篇幅通常为4000-5000 字）。 信息解读建议：政治局通稿信息颗粒度较粗，属于定调性质，不宜过度解读。 二、"优化供给"——反内卷进入"弱化提法，强化做法"的务实阶段 （一）政策提法变化：本次通稿强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展 新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"。 （四）政策解读：反内卷未在高层文件中出现，并不代表降温或停止，而是进入具体执行抓手阶段。 三、再提"跨周期"——超常规政策不能常态化存在 （一）"跨周期"提法回归：通稿提出"明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告正文 一、 篇幅"短"——篇幅非常短，往往意味着经济工作会议大概率几天内召开 核心内容篇幅极短： 本次政治局会议通稿与经济相关的核心内容仅 934 字，接近历史最低水平（ 2024 年为 924 字）。 会议召开的时间预判 ：根据以往经验，政治局会议先开定调，经济工作会议后开部署。通稿篇幅越短，通常意味着经 济工作会议有可能将在 2-4 天内召开。 政策细节披露时间 ：预计更多政策细节将在几天后的经济工作会议通稿中公布（篇幅通常为 4000-5000 字）。 信息解读建议： 政治局通稿信息颗粒度较粗，属于定调性质，不宜过度解读。 二、 "优化供给"——反内卷进入"弱化提法，强化做法"的务实阶段 （一）政策提法变化： 本次通稿强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力， 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"。 （二）反内卷进入务实阶段： "优化供给"是大方向，核心之一是"反内卷"。 当前"反内卷"已从强化提法转向强化做法，进入务实阶段。 （三）具体举措： 1 、 统一大市场建设 。 2 、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on December 8 emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive economic strategy for 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency while implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable yet progressive work guideline, better coordinating domestic economic work with international trade, and enhancing the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macroeconomic policies [5][6]. - The proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue, aiming to ensure effective transmission of fiscal expansion to the real economy while maintaining a stable financing environment [8][9]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand - The meeting called for continuous expansion of domestic demand and optimization of supply, emphasizing the need for a consumption-driven economic model to address current demand weaknesses [14][15]. - It was noted that the real estate sector is still facing challenges, with significant declines in investment and sales, indicating a need for targeted measures to stabilize this sector [5][12]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting stressed the importance of innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new growth drivers, with a focus on technology and manufacturing upgrades [17]. - There will be an emphasis on increasing fiscal spending in technology sectors and supporting the integration of technological innovation with industrial development [17]. Group 4: Risk Management - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while actively managing risks in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [19][20]. - It was acknowledged that the current debt pressures faced by residents, enterprises, and local governments require careful management to prevent the accumulation of new ineffective debts [20].

Core Viewpoint - The National Taxation Administration has intensified tax regulation efforts to maintain a unified national market and fair tax order, focusing on combating tax evasion and illegal practices in investment attraction [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Regulation Measures - The tax authority has established four "prohibitions" regarding illegal investment attraction, including not providing advice, not cooperating, not reporting knowledge of violations, and not allowing lax management [2]. - A monitoring system has been implemented to regularly check for abnormal tax revenue and invoice issuance related to illegal investment attraction [2]. - The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" has led to over 7,000 platforms reporting tax-related information, effectively reducing issues like fake orders and fraudulent invoicing [4][5]. Group 2: Impact on Tax Compliance - The number of cross-regional tax services has increased nearly fourfold compared to the previous year, indicating a growing compliance among taxpayers [2]. - The tax revenue from online merchants has seen a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with the tax burden of online merchants becoming more comparable to that of offline merchants [4]. - Small-scale taxpayers have reported a 22% increase in the amount of invoices obtained, reflecting a shift towards compliant business practices [5]. Group 3: Enforcement Actions - From January to November, the tax authority has investigated 3,904 high-risk gas stations, recovering 4.163 billion yuan in taxes, and has also targeted 1,818 high-profile individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan [7]. - A total of 69,600 enterprises suspected of fraudulent invoicing have been inspected, recovering 8.606 billion yuan in export tax refunds [7]. - The tax authority has also cracked down on 484 illegal tax intermediaries, highlighting a comprehensive approach to tackling tax-related crimes [7].

宏 观 研 究 中央政治局会议学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2025 年 12 月 08 日 实现"十五五"良好开局 —— 12 月中央政治局会议学习理解 事件：12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共产党 领导全面依法治国工作条例》。 政治局会议在基调上有何亮点？统筹经济工作和经贸斗争、重视政策效果和经济增长 会议重提 2025 年 4 月政治局会议首提的"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，凸显对 外部环境不确定性的关注与内部发展稳定性的重视。这一表述在 2024 年 12 月会议"更好 ...

Group 1: Consumer Demand and Sales Growth - Consumer demand has been continuously released this year, driven by policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - Sales of home appliances and new energy vehicles have maintained rapid growth, with retail sales of communication devices and daily household appliances increasing by 20.3% and 26.5% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The sales revenue of new energy passenger vehicles has also shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [1] Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Sector Growth - The cultural and tourism market has seen the emergence of new business formats and scenarios, enhancing consumer vitality [3] - Sales revenue from artistic creation and performance, as well as film screenings, increased by 15.6% and 19.1% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The integration of tourism with cultural activities has led to a surge in immersive and scenario-based tourism consumption [5] Group 3: Sports and Health Sector Performance - The sports and health sectors have exhibited high consumer enthusiasm, with sports exhibition services and retail sales of sports goods increasing by 29.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively [5] - Health-related consumption has become a new hotspot, with retail sales of health auxiliary treatment equipment and health consulting services maintaining double-digit growth [5] Group 4: Elderly Care Services Demand - The consumption demand from the elderly population has increased, driving diversified growth in essential elderly care services [7] - Sales in elderly care, social assistance, and nursing home services have increased by 33.6%, 9.6%, and 14.6% year-on-year, respectively [7] Group 5: Tax Refunds and Cross-Border Trade - The sales volume and tax refunds for tax refund goods have increased by 98.8% year-on-year, reflecting the optimization of the tax refund policy and services [8] - The number of tax refund stores has reached 12,252 nationwide, with over 7,000 stores offering "buy and refund" services [8][10] - The variety of goods eligible for tax refunds has expanded significantly, with 329 categories available, an increase of 84 categories year-on-year [10] Group 6: Water Resource Tax Reform - The implementation of the water resource tax reform has shown significant results, with a 26.9% increase in the number of tax filers and an 18.5% increase in tax revenue [11] - The tax reform has led to a notable decrease in groundwater and special water usage, with a 13% and 49.7% reduction, respectively [13] Group 7: Inter-Provincial Trade Growth - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales in the national sales revenue has increased to 41.1%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [16] - The number of provinces experiencing growth in inter-provincial trade has risen from 19 to 27, indicating deepening trade connections [16] - The average processing time for cross-regional tax-related business has been reduced by 5 to 10 days, enhancing efficiency [18]

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in the maritime logistics sector in Xiamen, particularly the implementation of a "single window" system that streamlines the process for ships entering and leaving the port, significantly reducing the time and effort required for documentation [2][4]. Group 1: Policy and Infrastructure Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breaking down barriers to establish a unified national market and improving logistics rules and standards [1]. - The Xiamen Maritime Bureau has developed 33 modules with over 80 functions to enhance service efficiency for enterprises [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The introduction of the "single window" system allows for one-time data submission, enabling quick processing of ship entry documentation, which previously required multiple submissions [2][3]. - The system provides real-time tracking of ship schedules and offers additional services such as fuel and supply information [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - In the first three quarters of the year, the export value of ships from Fujian reached 15.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The "non-stop certification" service has saved enterprises over 100 million in operational losses by reducing the time required for documentation from 28 days to as little as one day [8]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - The Xiamen Maritime Bureau has collaborated with various departments to create a comprehensive service platform that allows for simultaneous processing of necessary certifications, thus optimizing the workflow [7][8]. - Feedback from 68 enterprise needs has been collected to further enhance the services provided by the "single window" system [3].

新华财经北京12月8日电（记者董道勇）8日，在国家税务总局举行的例行新闻发布会上，国家税务总局 副局长蔡自力介绍说，税务部门深入贯彻党中央、国务院关于纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"五统一、 一开放"的基本要求，切实发挥税收职能作用，积极作为、多点发力，持续做全国统一大市场的有力维 护者和推进者。 "下一步，税务部门将继续深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，加力推动部门协同共治，更好发挥 税务部门在整治'内卷式'竞争中的职能作用，更好服务全国统一大市场建设。"蔡自力说。 一是加力纠治违规招商引资涉税问题。蔡自力表示，违规招商引资是影响全国统一大市场建设的症结之 一。自去年初起，税务总局就在全系统组织开展违规招商引资涉税问题专项治理，将其作为建强政治机 关的重要抓手，明确要求各地税务机关对地方违规招商引资涉税问题不得出谋划策、不得参与配合、不 得知情不报、不得放任失管，并严肃查处和通报违反规定的典型案例。同时，对各地违规招商引资带来 的税收收入异常、发票开具异常等情形，专门设置相关指标，进行常态化按月监测和核实处置，重大问 题推送相关部门协同纠治。 （文章来源：新华财经） 三是加力提升跨区域税费业务办理效能。蔡自力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the tax revenue in China has shown a positive trend, with tax authorities collecting over 29 trillion yuan in tax and fee income from January to November, indicating a stable economic situation [1] - The tax revenue (excluding export tax rebates) exceeded 16 trillion yuan, reflecting the ongoing improvement in the economic landscape [1] Group 2 - The tax authorities have seen a nearly fourfold increase in handling cross-regional tax-related business for taxpayers this year, with inter-provincial trade sales accounting for 41.1% of national sales revenue, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The number of provinces experiencing growth in inter-provincial trade has increased from 19 to 27, indicating a deepening of trade connections between provinces [2] Group 3 - The tax authorities have implemented strict measures against local governments engaging in illegal investment attraction practices, which disrupt the national unified market [2][3] - A set of four prohibitions has been established for local tax authorities to prevent them from participating in or facilitating illegal tax incentives [2][3] Group 4 - Over 7,000 platform companies have reported tax-related information since the implementation of the new regulations, leading to a 12.7% year-on-year increase in tax payments by platform operators [4] - The regulations have resulted in a reduction of "brushing" activities that artificially inflate traffic, and the number of "shell platforms" has also decreased [4][5] Group 5 - The implementation of the regulations has encouraged small-scale taxpayers to request invoices from suppliers, resulting in a 22% year-on-year increase in invoice amounts obtained by these taxpayers [5] - Previously hidden issues, such as tax evasion through income concealment and income splitting, have become easier to detect, providing a solid foundation for compliance [5] Group 6 - The regulations do not impose additional burdens on delivery and service personnel, ensuring their daily work and income remain unaffected [6] - The tax authorities have prohibited platforms from over-deducting fees during tax withholding, protecting the rights of service workers [6] Group 7 - The tax authorities have cracked down on tax evasion cases involving high-risk gas stations and celebrities, recovering over 15 billion yuan in tax payments from 1,818 individuals [7] - A total of 39,04 high-risk gas stations have been investigated, resulting in a recovery of 41.63 billion yuan in tax payments [7] - The authorities have maintained a high-pressure stance against fraudulent tax practices, inspecting nearly 69,600 enterprises suspected of tax fraud this year [7]