市场消息：日本央行预计通胀将高于预期，但下周将维持利率不变。日本央行在贸易局势明朗后，有望 考虑加息。 ...

Group 1 - A majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will forgo further interest rate hikes this year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, with the next expected increase of 25 basis points being postponed until early 2026 [1][2] - The survey indicates that 75% of respondents expect the Japanese government to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, reflecting growing concerns over public finance [1][3] - The Bank of Japan is still tightening monetary conditions, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing readiness to continue raising rates if inflation approaches the 2% target [1][3] Group 2 - Among 58 surveyed economists, 52% expect borrowing costs to remain at 0.50% by the end of the year, contrasting sharply with a previous survey where 52% anticipated rates would rise to 0.75% by the end of 2025 [2] - 75% of respondents believe that the Bank of Japan will slow down the pace of government bond purchases starting next fiscal year, with predictions for quarterly reductions ranging from 2 trillion to 3.7 trillion yen [3][4] - The government is considering reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds due to weak auction results and rising debt concerns, with significant pressure to cut issuance starting in July [4]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月11日） 美元： 1. 据路透调查：105位经济学家中，59位认为美联储将在下个季度（可能在9月）恢复降息，超过六成经 济学家预测美联储今年将至少降息两次。 2. 美国白宫：有关美国财政部长贝森特被视为下一任美联储主席候选人的报道不属实。 非美主要货币： 4. 日本央行呼吁加大力度推动日本进入无现金社会。 5. 路透调查显示，由于美国关税政策的不确定性，日本央行今年将放弃再次加息。 6. 欧洲央行行长拉加德：强制性的贸易政策无法持续，保护主义不能解决根源问题。要维护繁荣目标， 需寻求合作解决方案。 7. 欧洲央行管委斯图纳拉斯：稳定的欧盟政策正在吸引投资者投资欧元。 其他： 1. 惠誉：美元贬值为部分新兴市场央行加快降息提供了空间。 2. 肯尼亚央行将基准利率下调至9.75%，市场预期为9.50%。 1. 美国和瑞士就客户投资信息共享达成协议。 2. 路透调查显示，英国经济今年将温和增长1%，英国央行将在2025年再降息两次。 3. 欧洲央行管委武伊契奇：欧洲央行在利率方面处于非常有利的位置。欧洲央行可以等到九月份再讨论 是否采取行动。 3. 巴西通胀意外降温，交易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of economists believe that the Bank of Japan will postpone interest rate hikes until the first quarter of next year due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Policy - Most economists expect the next 25 basis point rate hike to occur in early 2026 [1] - No analysts anticipate an interest rate increase during the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on June 16-17 [1] Government Bond Purchases - A majority of respondents indicated that the Bank of Japan will slow down the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting from the next fiscal year [1] - Three-quarters of the respondents expect the Japanese government to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds [1]

路透调查：78%的经济学家预计日本央行到2026年第一季末将至少加息至0.75%。 ...

野村：日本央行加息可能面临"相当大的障碍" 金十数据6月10日讯，野村证券全球市场研究部门的四名成员表示，日本央行今年加息可能面临"相当大 的障碍"。他们说，这些问题包括美国关税对国内经济和价格的影响、日本政府的经济刺激措施，以及 日本2026财年预算的起草。由于美国的关税，2026年3月至4月的工资涨幅可能低于预期。这意味着，从 那时起，潜在通胀的增长可能会暂时放缓。然而，关税最糟糕的影响可能会在2026年1月结束，野村预 计日本央行将在2026年1月加息，并在2026财年保持利率不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates will be raised if there is sufficient confidence that the potential inflation rate is close to or fluctuating around 2% [1] Summary by Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates based on confidence in inflation rates [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - A potential inflation rate near 2% is a key factor for the Bank of Japan's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates may be raised if there is sufficient confidence that the potential inflation rate is close to or fluctuating around 2% [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring inflation trends to determine future monetary policy actions [1] - A potential interest rate hike is contingent upon achieving a stable inflation rate near the target of 2% [1]

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：不会排除加息的可能性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's household spending is weak, leading to a potential delay in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1] - Household spending in April decreased by 0.1% compared to the same month last year, while inflation-adjusted wages fell by 1.8% [1] - Analysts suggest that even if wages continue to rise, households may take time to rebuild their savings due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring service prices, which are currently low, influencing their decision on interest rate adjustments [1] - There is a possibility that the Bank of Japan may postpone interest rate hikes for a year or longer due to the weak spending and savings trends [1]