朋友们，今天小夏给大家带来了一个投资圈的重磅消息——"股神"巴菲特的"退休"前最后一份持仓报告新鲜出炉了！这里面可藏着不少让人眼前一亮的细 节！ 先来聊聊苹果。巴菲特这次又抛售了价值约110亿美元的苹果股票，截至第三季度末，伯克希尔持有的苹果股票价值约为610亿美元。说到减持的原因，之前 巴菲特提及是因为税收，但这接连的减持让市场猜测，或许是担忧苹果的估值过高。（智通财经20251116） 数据显示，谷歌AI应用Gemini的月活跃用户数已超过6.5亿，对比ChatGPT周活8亿还是有点差距。不过，此次发布的3.0版本在AI基准测试中几乎全面霸榜， 可见谷歌有望在AI大模型领域继续抢占优势，进而为公司带来实实在在的成果。（钛媒体20251119） 从这些情况来看，巴菲特团队对这笔投资的认可，本质是接纳了数字时代"护城河"的新形态，印证了价值投资的内核是对持久竞争优势的坚守，而非对行业 标签的执念。 温馨提示：本文所述不作为个股推荐。本资料不作为任何法律文件，资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，我公 司不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人 ...

Core Insights - The performance of Dongfang Hongwan's overseas fund is highlighted, with a 3-year return of 138.98%, ranking third among 9,970 hedge funds globally, while the 1-year return of 26.63% is slightly above the domestic average of 24.32% but significantly lower than the top 5% return of 82.48% [1][3][4] Fund Performance - The fund's 3-year return of 138.98% demonstrates effective strategies of investing in great companies and cross-market allocation [3][5] - The 1-year return of 26.63% is considered less impressive compared to peers, raising questions about the fund's short-term performance [3][5] Holdings and Investment Strategy - The fund's significant holdings include Nvidia, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, with Nvidia being the largest position at $236 million [2][3] - The fund has also invested in Chinese internet companies, notably Alibaba, reflecting a belief in the growth potential of these assets [2][3] Market Context - The current market environment is characterized by a slow bull market in A-shares, with significant short-term opportunities in technology and resource sectors [5] - The divergence in performance among fund managers is attributed to the difference between value investing and short-term speculation [5][6] Long-term Perspective - The fund's strategy emphasizes long-term growth, as evidenced by its commitment to leading companies in the AI sector and its cautious approach to market volatility [6] - The ongoing debate centers around the choice between chasing short-term gains versus investing in stable, long-term performers [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of Dongfang Hongwan's overseas fund, which achieved a three-year return of 138.98%, ranking third among 9,970 global hedge funds, and a one-year return of 26.63% [1][5] - There is a mixed market interpretation of these results, with the one-year return being slightly above the domestic average of 24.32% but significantly lower than the top 5% return of 82.48% [1][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the underperformance of domestic products, which recorded returns around 15%, well below the average [1][5] Investment Strategy - Dongfang Hongwan's investment strategy is heavily focused on AI, with a significant portion of its $1.292 billion portfolio allocated to AI-related stocks, including major holdings in Nvidia and Google [3][4] - The fund's top holdings include Nvidia at $236 million, Google at $224 million, and new positions in Alibaba and Broadcom, reflecting a strong belief in the AI sector [3][4] - The fund also invested in key players in the AI supply chain, such as Astera Labs and BitMine Immersion Technologies, indicating a comprehensive approach to the AI industry [4] Performance Analysis - The long-term performance of Dongfang Hongwan is praised for its effectiveness in value investing, with a three-year return of 138.98% demonstrating strong asset judgment [5][7] - However, the one-year performance has sparked debate, as it falls short compared to peers, raising questions about the sustainability of its strategy [5][7] - The domestic products have shown significant volatility, with notable losses earlier in the year, leading to investor concerns about short-term performance [6][7] Market Perspective - Analysts suggest that the performance disparity reflects the inherent differences between value investing and short-term speculation, especially in a structural bull market [7] - The current market environment has created numerous short-term opportunities, but high volatility is expected, making long-term strategies more appealing [7] - The ongoing debate centers on whether to pursue short-term gains or to invest in long-term growth, with Dongfang Hongwan's strategy leaning towards the latter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Dongfang Hongwan's overseas fund, led by Chairman Dan Bin, has sparked diverse interpretations in the market, with a three-year return of 138.98% ranking third among global hedge funds, while its one-year return of 26.63% is slightly above the domestic average but significantly lower than the top performers [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - The overseas fund's three-year return of 138.98% places it among the top three hedge funds globally, indicating the effectiveness of its strategy focused on "investing in great companies and cross-market allocation" [3][5]. - The one-year return of 26.63% is slightly above the domestic average of 24.32%, but it falls short compared to the top 5% performers, which achieved returns of 82.48% [4][5]. - Domestic products under Dan Bin's management have shown lower performance, with returns around 15%, significantly lagging behind the average of 24.32% for similar funds [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund's investment strategy heavily emphasizes AI, with a significant portion of its $1.292 billion portfolio allocated to AI-related companies, including major holdings in Nvidia and Google [2][3]. - Dan Bin's recent investments include new positions in Alibaba and key players in the AI supply chain, reflecting a commitment to long-term growth in the technology sector [2][3]. - The focus on hard technology and AI supply chain components, such as Astera Labs and Broadcom, highlights the fund's strategic positioning within the evolving AI landscape [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Perspectives - Market reactions to the fund's performance have been mixed, with some investors expressing concerns over short-term results, questioning whether Dan Bin has been "over-mythologized" [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the divergence in performance between long-term value investing and short-term speculative strategies is a natural outcome in a structural bull market [5][6]. - Dan Bin's commitment to a long-term investment philosophy is evident in his focus on established leaders in the AI sector, indicating a preference for stability over short-term gains [6].

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway has made a surprising investment by acquiring 17.84 million shares of Alphabet, making it the company's tenth-largest holding, which contrasts with Warren Buffett's long-standing principle of avoiding businesses that are not well understood [1][3]. Investment Strategy Shift - This investment marks a significant departure from Buffett's traditional investment philosophy, as it involves entering the complex technology sector and paying a high valuation, approximately 40 times the tracking free cash flow, compared to the S&P 500's average of about 26 times since 1991 [3]. - The timing of this investment coincides with a critical leadership transition at Berkshire, with speculation that the incoming CEO, Greg Abel, may have played a key role in this decision, indicating a potential shift in the company's investment logic towards accepting higher premiums for future growth [3][4]. Future Growth Expectations - Analysts suggest that for the valuation to become reasonable, Alphabet needs to achieve an annual free cash flow growth rate of 13% to 23% over the next three to five years, despite its current free cash flow margin of about 19%, which is weaker than Nvidia's margin of 44% [3]. - This investment places Berkshire at the center of the ongoing debate on whether the AI-related investments on Wall Street are overvalued [3].

本周 推荐阅读 在AI竞赛中一度表现落后之后，市场终于意识到， 谷歌已经是少数几家从人工智能中获益并实现盈利的 公司之一：不仅 继续在搜索和流媒体领域占据主导地位，而且构建起了强大的基础设施护城河（ 基于 海底光缆、光纤和云架构） ，这些优势 与 YouTube、Gemini 以及传统搜索业务结合起来会极具竞争 力。 关于谷歌的投资，我们之前有篇比尔·阿克曼的文章，是2024年做的一个3个半小时的访谈，他当时就已 重仓谷歌，并深度地分析了谷歌的价值。如今看并不过时。（点击阅读： 3.2万字｜潘兴广场比尔·阿克 曼最有价值的一场对话，深谈价值投资、核心战役以及如何从人生谷底"爬坑"…… 无论如何，那些重仓谷歌的机构是开心的。 巴菲特新入手的科技巨头是李录第一大重仓，景林高毅三季 度也在猛加仓…… 关于刚刚披露完毕的三季度美股持仓情况，还可以细细品味下段永平的美股组合。结合他最新访谈更有 滋味。 段永平美股市值147亿美元！三季度大笔增持伯克希尔，新入阿斯麦，最新对话细谈持仓…… 全球市场寒风瑟瑟的一周，谷歌股价还创了新高，伯克希尔的三季度重手建仓，短期就有了显著的正反 馈。但对巴菲特而言，这不见得是好事，因为要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Duan Yongping emphasizes integrating business logic into financial thinking, focusing on rationality and a calm mindset to navigate market volatility [2][16]. Group 1: Investment Principles - "Benfen" (本分) refers to returning to the essence of things, meaning that investing is fundamentally about buying companies, not just stocks [5][4]. - "Pingchangxin" (平常心) serves as a psychological armor against market fluctuations, allowing investors to assess risks and values without being swayed by market emotions [7][17]. - The investment approach is characterized by a long-term perspective, where the focus is on companies with strong competitive advantages that can generate sustainable cash flow over time [8][11]. Group 2: Business Understanding - Duan Yongping's investment strategy prioritizes understanding the business model over mere financial calculations, emphasizing the importance of a company's long-term future [8][9]. - He seeks companies with strong "moats," which can be derived from unique product experiences or cultural significance, ensuring long-term profitability [8][9]. - The investment process involves deep engagement with the company's products and culture, as well as evaluating management's alignment with shareholder interests [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Duan Yongping advocates for a concentrated investment strategy, focusing on a small number of companies within his "circle of competence" to ensure a deep understanding of each investment [12][14]. - He believes that true investment opportunities are rare and emphasizes the importance of saying "no" to opportunities outside his expertise [12][14]. - The strategy involves holding investments for the long term, with minimal selling unless the fundamental nature of the company changes [9][24]. Group 4: Case Studies - The investment in NetEase during its crisis in 2001 exemplifies a contrarian approach, where Duan recognized the underlying value despite market panic [27]. - The long-term holding of Moutai showcases the importance of brand scarcity and stable demand, leading to significant returns over 17 years [28][29]. - The investment in Tencent during a market downturn illustrates the strategy of capitalizing on short-term mispricing due to market sentiment [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - Stagwell Inc. (STGW) is currently identified as a strong value stock, exhibiting attractive valuation metrics compared to its industry peers [4][8]. Valuation Metrics - STGW has a P/E ratio of 5.71, significantly lower than the industry average of 9.67, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. - The company's P/B ratio stands at 1.71, compared to the industry average of 4.25, suggesting a solid valuation relative to its book value [5]. - STGW's P/S ratio is 0.45, which is lower than the industry average of 0.55, reinforcing the notion of undervaluation based on sales [6]. - The P/CF ratio for STGW is 7.56, which is attractive compared to the industry's average of 10.14, highlighting a favorable cash flow outlook [7]. Investment Outlook - Given the combination of strong earnings outlook and favorable valuation metrics, Stagwell Inc. is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity for value investors [8].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline with over 5000 stocks falling, leading to a drop in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41%, ChiNext Index down 4.02%, and Beixin 50 down 4.71% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase from 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 5.13%, and ChiNext Index decreased by 6.15% [2] External Influences - The decline in A-shares was attributed to external shocks, particularly a significant drop in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index falling 2.15%, leading to a global sell-off of risk assets [2] - There is a noted shift of funds from high-valuation sectors to safer assets within the A-share market [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience a downward trend in the short term, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3850 points [2] - There is a call for increased confidence in market valuations and a promotion of value investment principles [2] - Recommendations for investors include focusing on policy-driven sectors and well-adjusted growth stocks [2] Economic Indicators and Policy Considerations - Future market focus may shift towards the manufacturing PMI for November and the Federal Reserve's December meeting [2] - If the PMI remains weak, attention may turn to policy-driven defensive sectors; conversely, a drop in US core PCE inflation could raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Global Market Conditions - The current global market is characterized by heightened risk aversion and tightening liquidity, influenced by various factors including the Epstein case, rising inflation concerns, and uncertain economic outlook [3] - Investors are advised to be cautious with dollar assets and to monitor policy signals leading up to the Federal Reserve's December meeting [3]

Group 1 - The current market downturn presents a unique opportunity for value investors to acquire undervalued assets, as many quality companies are being unfairly punished due to short-term negative sentiment [1] - Companies with a price-to-book ratio (PB) significantly below historical averages, especially those with a PB less than 1, are prime targets for investment, indicating they can be purchased for less than their net asset value [1] - High dividend yield companies, particularly those yielding over 6%, provide not only cash flow returns but also signify financial health, making them attractive during market volatility [1] Group 2 - The principle of "be greedy when others are fearful" serves as a guide for value investors, suggesting that the current market fear creates an ideal environment for strategic investments [1] - Historical patterns indicate that market bottoms often occur when the majority are in despair, presenting opportunities to buy quality assets at discounted prices [1] - The current market correction is viewed as a "reverse pickup" opportunity, where investors who previously hesitated can now strategically enter the market [1] Group 3 - Focus areas for investment include high dividend defensive sectors, such as banks and coal companies, which are currently undervalued yet possess strong cash flow and dividend potential [1] - Growth sectors that have been unfairly punished, such as renewable energy and consumer electronics, are also highlighted as having significant recovery potential despite recent downturns [1] - Real estate and its related industries are under scrutiny, with a focus on financially stable companies that have low debt and strong land reserves, as government support is expected to bolster these sectors [1] Group 4 - A disciplined approach to investing is recommended, including strategies like dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [1] - Emphasis is placed on selecting leading companies with solid fundamentals, avoiding "junk stocks" to prevent falling into value traps [1] - Patience is crucial, as the recovery of asset values may take time, especially in a slow-moving market environment [1]