1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The binding of the Trump administration's tariff and tax - cut policies will become more obvious, and it is highly likely that the two policies will either pass or be rejected simultaneously [2][11] - The US employment market is operating stably. In May, employment signals were contradictory, but non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the weekly wage index growth rate is close to the pre - pandemic level, which may not change the downward trend of core inflation [2][14] - The focus of monetary policy lies in the persistence of the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - CBO estimates that the OBBBA may lead to a reduction of $3.7 trillion in federal fiscal revenue and $1.3 trillion in expenditure from 2025 - 2034, along with $55.1 billion in debt costs, resulting in an increase of about $3 trillion in government debt. However, tariffs may reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion from 2025 - 2035, but will also cause negative economic impacts and inflation in the next two years [2][10] - The Trump administration's tariff policy faces legal challenges, and the OBBBA is still under discussion in the Senate. The binding of tariff and tax - cut policies will be stronger [2][11] - In May, the US employment market had contradictory signals. ADP employment increased slightly, while non - farm employment grew strongly. Non - farm employment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the non - farm hourly wage growth rate was stable [2][14] - From June 2 - 7, 2025, agricultural product prices mostly declined, and commodity prices showed mixed trends. For example, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.55% week - on - week, and the price of Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.60% week - on - week [2] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - Multiple charts show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators such as PPI, CPI, and export volume, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [22][28][29] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Charts display the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth, initial jobless claims and unemployment rate, same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [83][85][87] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data such as 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and production material price index, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [94][96][100] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but specific analysis is not provided in the text [147][151]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes maintaining a cautious stance in a market characterized by narrow fluctuations, with a focus on the current economic conditions and market trends [1]. Weekly Recommendations - Suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both at low allocations, indicating a conservative approach [2]. Market Performance Summary - In the first week of June, the market saw a rebound with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.88%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 500 index increased by 1.60%. Despite the macroeconomic challenges following April's tariff impacts, market trading activity has improved [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized, and Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair. In China, the central bank is set to disclose monthly reverse repurchase amounts, with June's scale rising to 1 trillion, which is seen as a rolling support for economic stability. The market is closely monitoring production and consumption data following May's export surge [4]. - Recent U.S. employment data shows a flat unemployment rate and a decline in labor participation, indicating a cooling job market. The upcoming nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair may influence market expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts. However, a significant economic recession is anticipated before any major rate cuts occur, as the dollar's credibility could be at risk [4]. Technical Analysis - The market continues to exhibit a narrow oscillation pattern without a clear new trend direction. Institutional funds have flowed into both the main board and small-cap sectors, but these movements have not yet confirmed a new trend [4]. Summary of Market Outlook - The market experienced a slight rebound amid expectations of a U.S.-China summit, with increased trading activity. However, the Chinese economy is still grappling with insufficient domestic demand and fluctuating external demand, while the U.S. faces fiscal challenges amid significant external shocks. The global economic landscape remains fragile, and any changes in expectations regarding major legislative actions or trade tensions could trigger a new round of equity adjustments [5]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low allocation until new signals emerge, while the small-cap sector also remains at a low allocation due to a lack of reversal signals, with a preference for the main board [5]. Short-term momentum models recommend focusing on the banking and telecommunications sectors [5].

大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market shows short-term resilience, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations of 126,000 [1][6][7] - The healthcare sector (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000) accounted for 90% of the total job gains, indicating that service consumption is a key support for the U.S. job market [1][7] - The manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment sectors were drag factors in May, with federal government employment turning negative, possibly reflecting the impact of layoffs [1][8] Group 2 - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate (U3) from 4.19% to 4.24% [2][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.7%, indicating wage stickiness that may support consumer spending [2][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-on-year increase of 5% in May, although it was lower than the previous value of 5.3% [2][10] Group 3 - The employment diffusion index decreased from 56 to 54.2, indicating a slowdown in job growth breadth, with the manufacturing employment diffusion index dropping to 41.7, the lowest since August 2024 [3][11] - The proportion of full-time employment fell to 49.3%, and the total employment-to-population ratio dropped to 59.7%, the lowest since the pandemic [3][11] - The number of individuals transitioning from employment to non-labor force status rose to 5.41 million, the highest monthly increase, potentially due to federal administrative leave and tightened immigration policies [3][12] Group 4 - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, below the expected 62.6% [3][12] - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals fell from 66.5% to 65.9%, likely related to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals [4][14] - The Supreme Court's decision to end TPS could impact approximately 348,000 individuals, potentially reducing the labor supply by about 20,000 jobs per month over the next year [4][15] Group 5 - Overall, the May employment data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with a low probability of rate cuts in June and July [5][17] - The market's limited expectations for rate cuts were reflected in the rise of major U.S. stock indices following the employment data release [5][17] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded by 11 basis points to 4.50% on the same day [5][17]

加拿大新增就业好于预期 但失业率升至7%的多年高位 金十数据6月6日讯，5月份，加拿大就业市场仍然低迷，又一个月的招聘活动低迷，失业率升至2016年 以来的最高水平（不包括疫情最严重时期）。加拿大统计局周五表示，上月加拿大新增就业岗位8800 个，增幅不大。随着加拿大人口继续扩张，劳动力市场的增长落后，意味着失业率连续第三个月小幅上 升，至7.0%。就业增长数据强于预期，因联邦选举引入临时工，分析师曾预计5月就业人数将减少 12,500人，逆转上月增加的约37,000个公共行政职位。在1月份就业激增之后，加拿大的就业几乎没有增 长，因为人们担心特朗普政府对贸易和进口关税的敌对态度打击了招聘意愿。 ...

金十数据6月6日讯，机构分析师就美国非农报告表示，平均时薪增长0.4%，超过了0.3%的预期中值， 是4月份增长速度的两倍。这表明就业市场依然稳定，本周早些时候的数据也显示，4月份的职位空缺有 所增加。与去年同期相比，收入增长了3.9%，远远超过了通货膨胀的速度，因此美国工人的消费能力 正在增强。 分析师：平均时薪超出预期 就业市场仍然稳定 ...

【资讯导读】 ·美国扩大移民限制清单哈佛外籍学生签证遭波及 ·欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2% ·美国4月贸易逆差缩至616亿美元 ·美国初请失业金意外攀升 【市场资讯】 ·美国白宫宣布全面限制阿富汗、缅甸、伊朗等12国公民入境，并部分限制布隆迪等7国人员。特朗普同 步签署公告，收紧哈佛大学外籍学生签证政策，此举被解读为针对移民与教育领域的"国家安全审查"升 级。 ·堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周四表示担心关税可能重新引发通胀，称价格上涨压力可能在未来几个月显 现，但其全部影响可能要更久之后才能完全显现。这番讲话表明，施密德可能倾向于维持美联储政策利 率不变。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·COMEX黄金期货下跌0.68%报3376.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货上涨3.31%报35.795美元/盎司。 ·2年期美债收益率上涨6.19个基点报3.924%，5年期美债收益率上涨7.13个基点报3.995%，10年期美债收 益率上涨3.93个基点报4.395%，30年期美债收益率上涨0.61个基点报4.883%。 · ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国就业咨询机构查林杰－格雷－克里斯马斯公司（Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.）当日盘前发布 的数据显示，美国雇主5月裁员人数为9.38万人，低于4月份的10.5万人 由于美国就业市场显现出一定的疲软迹象，市场聚焦于将于6日公布的美国5月份非农就业数据。市场预 期，美国5月份新增12.5万个就业岗位，环比减少5.2万个。 当日美国总统特朗普与特斯拉公司CEO马斯克在社交媒体上就"大而美法案"等相互攻击并相互威胁，两 人关系恶化引发市场对相关公司业绩的担忧。 个股方面，由于马斯克与特朗普当日在社交媒体上相互攻击，特斯拉股价当日暴跌，跌幅一度超过 17%，收盘时下跌14.26%。特朗普媒体集团股价当日则下跌8.04%。 新华财经纽约6月5日电（记者刘亚南）由于投资者在美国发布非农就业数据前保持谨慎和当日就业数据 及权重股下跌拖累，纽约股市三大股指5日高开低走，早盘一度明显走高，随后震荡回落，收盘时纽约 股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌108.00点，收于42319.74点，跌幅为0.25%；标 准普尔500种股票指数 ...

就业数据或仍强劲 通胀将成关键观察点 市场普遍预期，美国劳工部将于周五公布的5月就业报告将显示失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，新增 就业岗位约为13万个，虽低于4月的17.7万，仍高于显示劳动力市场健康所需的10万个基准值。 与此同时，5月消费者价格指数(CPI)预计将出现再加速增长，原因是近期实施的大规模进口关税开始反 映在商品和服务价格中。尽管整体通胀此前已有所降温，4月核心PCE指数年增率为2.1%，略高于美联 储的2%目标，但高企的物价压力仍未完全解除。 智通财经APP获悉，多位美联储高级官员周四表示，在当前经济形势下，通胀压力依然高于就业市场疲 软带来的风险，这暗示美联储可能在更长时间内维持利率不变。 美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒在纽约经济俱乐部的讲话中表示，她倾向于继续维持当前的政策利率水 平不变，原因是"通胀上行风险大于就业和产出下行风险"。 "如果通胀的上行风险依旧存在，我将继续支持维持联邦基金利率在当前水平，"库格勒表示。她指出， 近期加征的关税已经对价格产生上行压力，而尽管经济出现一些降温迹象，"尚未构成实质性放缓"。 稍晚些时候，堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德也表达了类似担忧。他指出，虽 ...

核 心 观 点 近期我国城镇调查失业率维持在 5.2% 上下，但失业保险基金的支出却保持较高增长。两者为何形成如此大的 差异？我国就业市场的环境到底如何呢？ 失业金支出，为何高增长 ？ 早在 2018 年，人社部就对《失业保险条例》进行修订，将失业保险基金的支出 范围扩大到预防失业领域，同时增强了保生活和促就业功能。因此，失业保险金支出还反映了促就业的政策力 度。不过，近期失业保险基金支出的增长，基本可以排除失业保险金支出范围调整的影响。当前大部分省份已 经确立起失业保险金标准与最低工资标准的联动机制。与此同时， 2023 年至今，所有省市均先后调升最低工 资标准，相应的失业金发放标准也多有提高，对于失业基金支出有一定影响。失业金支出的增长与就业环境有 关，不过，失业金领取情况对就业市场的反映有所滞后。政策规定失业保险金本身要低于当地的最低工资标 准，所以政策设计上鼓励失业人群尽快回到就业市场。那在短期内无法或者不愿回到就业市场的群体，才更有 可能选择去进行失业保险金的申领。 上市公司看就业：哪些行业是好雇主？ 从上市公司数据看， 2024 年上市公司员工总数增速放缓，平均月薪 有所下降。从行业角度看， 汽车 ...