投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，金银价格回调 ——中信期货晨报20250710 中信期货研究所 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | 板块 品种 | | | | 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 ...

欧元区通胀数据显示出微妙变化。6月年化通胀率从1.9%反弹至2%，恰好触及欧洲央行设定的物价目 标。这一数据与市场预期保持一致，但背后的结构性特征值得关注。服务价格同比上升3.3%，食品和 烟酒价格上升3.1%，而能源价格则下降2.7%。核心通胀率维持在2.3%的水平，表明价格压力仍然存 在。 美国6月ADP就业数据的疲软表现为美联储政策预期带来新的变数。专业和商业服务以及医疗保健和教 育领域的就业岗位下降，成为服务业就业减少的主要原因。ADP首席经济学家理查德森指出，企业在招 聘上的犹豫态度以及不愿意补充离职员工，导致了就业岗位的减少。 这一数据引发了对即将公布的6月非农就业报告的高度关注。瑞银预计6月非农就业人数或仅增加10万 人，失业率或创2021年新高。花旗的预测更为悲观，认为非农就业仅增加8.5万人。如果6月就业数据表 现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月份采取降息行动。 美国就业市场的疲软表现与欧元区相对稳定的通胀环境形成对比。这种差异可能为欧元兑美元汇率提供 支撑因素。当前欧元兑美元汇率在1.17-1.18区间波动，市场正在权衡两大央行政策分化的影响。 美股市场的表现也反映出投资者对经济前景的复杂情 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the ADP employment numbers in the U.S. decreased by 33,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with May's figures revised down to an increase of only 29,000 [1] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [1] - Despite the job losses, year-on-year wage growth remained stable at 4.4%, only slightly down from 4.5% in May [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - President Trump announced that Vietnam agreed to open its market to U.S. products at zero tariffs, while U.S. exports to Vietnam would face at least a 20% tariff [3] - The trade deficit with Vietnam exceeds $123 billion, with the U.S. importing over $136 billion from Vietnam in 2024 [3] - The potential trade agreement could impact China's transshipment trade, as Vietnam's supply chain heavily relies on Chinese technology and materials [4] Group 3: Technology Exports - The U.S. government has lifted some export restrictions on EDA software to China, which could enhance China's semiconductor design capabilities [5] - Major EDA companies hold approximately 82% of the Chinese market, indicating a significant reliance on U.S. technology [5] - The easing of restrictions may encourage Chinese firms to increase their preference for domestic EDA software solutions [6] Group 4: Real Estate Policies - Guangzhou is proposing a "commercial to public loan" policy to convert commercial housing loans to public housing loans when the public loan rate is below 75% [7] - This policy aims to stimulate demand in the real estate market while ensuring liquidity safety [8] Group 5: Gaming Market - Tencent and ByteDance are competing for the burgeoning mini-game market, which is projected to generate revenues of 39.836 billion yuan in 2024, a 99.18% increase year-on-year [9] - The mini-game sector benefits from low entry barriers and high user engagement, making it an attractive area for both companies [10] Group 6: IPO Activity - In the first half of the year, A-share IPO applications exceeded the total for the previous year, with 177 companies applying [11] - The total financing scale reached 38 billion yuan, a 25.53% increase year-on-year [12] - The surge in IPO applications is attributed to companies rushing to submit before the financial reports expire [12] Group 7: Market Trends - A-share new account openings reached 1.65 million in June, a 53% year-on-year increase, with a total of 12.6 million new accounts in the first half of the year [13] - The overall trading volume in June was 26.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a 79.57% increase compared to the previous year [13] - The market's performance in June was characterized by a lack of significant upward momentum, despite the increase in new accounts [14]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from the Federal Reserve's Bostic highlights the importance of monitoring the employment market, particularly if there are signs of deterioration such as rising unemployment rates or corporate layoffs [1] Group 1 - The employment market's health is crucial for economic stability, and any signs of decline should be closely observed [1] - An increase in unemployment rates or corporate layoffs could signal broader economic issues that require attention [1]

金十数据7月3日讯，Plante Moran Financial Advisors首席投资官Jim Baird表示，当前市场对劳动力市场 疲软的担忧仍被过分夸大。就业市场实际上仍保持稳定。但必须深入分析下一层数据——当看到私营部 门就业增长明显放缓时，仍需保持警惕。整体就业数据的强劲表现主要得益于州和地方政府岗位的大幅 增加，特别是教育行业。毫无疑问，我们仍处于招聘环境疲软的阶段。企业虽未大规模裁员，但在贸易 和税收政策前景明朗前，基本维持着保守的招聘策略。 机构：美国政府岗位撑起的就业繁荣难掩私营部门寒意 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - Silver futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the latest Shanghai silver futures price at 8960 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.02% increase, reaching a high of 8964 CNY/kg and a low of 8781 CNY/kg [1] - The current trend indicates that the silver market remains bullish, with strong support levels identified at 8700 and 8600 points [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate in June is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021, driven by an increase in layoffs and a slowdown in hiring activities [2] - Economic experts predict that the unemployment rate may continue to climb into the second half of 2025, indicating a more severe shift in the employment market than previously anticipated [2] - Recent immigration policy changes by the Trump administration have led to a reduction in the labor force, which may limit the potential rise in unemployment rates, as the economy requires fewer than 100,000 new jobs per month to maintain stability [2]

尽管美联储强调对抗通胀仍是核心目标，但年内多个物价指标持续回落，核心PCE与CPI均展现出温和 走势。而在此背景下，实际利率水平正在逐步攀升，对企业与家庭融资行为形成抑制，部分行业投资已 呈现降温趋势。如果未来几个月物价继续平稳，甚至进一步下行，那么"今年只降一次"的设想将很容易 面临重新评估。 更值得关注的是，美联储内部并非铁板一块。尽管博斯蒂克表态相对谨慎，但早前已有数位理事暗示7 月降息不排除可能。换言之，即便官方预测仍强调数据为主、节奏缓慢，但围绕"何时开始"与"幅度多 少"的分歧正在加深。对于市场而言，这种不确定性既是风险源头，也是机会窗口。 DLSM外汇从全球角度看，欧洲央行与加拿大央行已经率先进入降息周期，亚洲多国货币政策也在转向 宽松。在全球金融环境趋向松动的背景下，美联储如果始终保持高利率水平，可能对美元走势、资本流 向乃至出口环境产生累积性压力。博斯蒂克的节制姿态固然出于防范过早放松的审慎考虑，但是否低估 了全球协调机制的现实影响，也需要打上一个问号。 博斯蒂克"今年降一次、明年三次"的预测虽然在当前阶段不算激进，但在内外经济条件微妙演变之下， 可能很快就会被现实数据逼入调整的轨道。市场正 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：目前并不预期就业市场会出现剧烈疲软。 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：就业市场稳健，但尚未达到以往的紧俏水平。 ...

2025.06.27 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 最好不持仓过周，押注对了还好，但一旦押注失误，别想着一根细细的"止损线"能帮你。冷知识，跳空出现之后，不论是设置的止损或是止盈， 都大概率不会被触发。 故而今天还是看一下黄金的本身，有没有自救的能力吧。说白了，你至少让我进场啊！ 六月的倒数第二个交易日，PCE数据将公布；六月的最后一个交易日在下周一，收月线也就算了，更何况还有周四的非农，是会留给下周一些风 风雨雨的。【没错，鉴于老美假期，所以数据提前公布】 刚说完黑天鹅，它就飞来了，我是什么召唤师的角色吗？ 基本面上一天不如一天，改口的反转来的太多，不怎么想去追踪了，就记得两件事。①老美需要＄，不管是债务亦或者经济发展；②建国以降息 为引子，弱化关税影响，试图模糊掉这些。 别问，前者跟现在开辟的任何战场都有关。周末各位也要提防一下，市场休市，可ZZ没有休息一说，一个人八百个心眼子，还在斗的激烈。 催催催，再怎么被催促，美联储都得考虑一下，如果连续的通胀不强或者就业市场疲软，才能点击降息的按钮。这次可能是个开始，那PCE数据 不能一开始就扇降息一巴掌吧。 所以这次呢，本来预期就比较高，如果公 ...