Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - Qilu Bank's performance remains strong, with a reported operating income of 12.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.99 billion yuan, up 17.77% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q1 2025, the bank achieved an operating income of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.72% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan, which is a 16.47% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The bank's total assets reached 716.4 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, marking a 14.7% year-on-year growth [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Qilu Bank's total operating income was 12,496 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.55% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4,986 million yuan, with a growth rate of 17.77% year-on-year [5] - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 1.03 yuan, with a projected EPS of 1.21 yuan for 2025 [5] - The net interest margin for 2024 was 1.51%, slightly lower than the previous year, but the bank has managed to control costs effectively [3][5] Asset Quality and Risk Management - Qilu Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.17% by the end of Q1 2025, down 2 basis points from the end of 2024, while the provision coverage ratio increased to 324.06% [3][4] - The bank has been actively managing its loan portfolio, with a focus on improving asset quality and reducing risks associated with non-performing loans [4][6] Growth Prospects - The bank is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth rates of 17.65%, 18.01%, and 17.99% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - Qilu Bank's strategy includes expanding its market presence in county-level areas and enhancing its service offerings to institutional clients [3][6]

Market Performance - The real estate index experienced a peak increase of 2.89%, which boosted market risk appetite [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline from a 2% increase to only 0.14% by the close of trading [5] - Southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 7 billion, following a net inflow of 3.387 billion the previous day and a net outflow of 18.1 billion before that, indicating a trend of net outflows over three trading days [5] Policy Expectations - The market reacted to the announcement of policies, which aligned with expectations but did not meet the higher anticipations of some foreign investors [6][8] - The focus of foreign capital is on early policy implementation to preemptively address tariff impacts rather than waiting for tariffs to take effect [7] Real Estate Sector - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market without the need for significant stimulus, suggesting that the sector is gradually stabilizing [9] - There is an indication that major policy moves are expected in the third quarter, with no significant changes anticipated in the second quarter [10] Investment Strategies - The company is employing grid trading strategies for various ETFs, including a focus on free cash flow ETFs, which are designed to provide stable returns with lower volatility compared to sector-specific indices [12][14] - The grid strategy for the free cash flow ETF has been structured to capitalize on price fluctuations, with a specific price range established for trading [16][18] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment suggests that without exceeding expectations in policy announcements, the stock market may struggle to gain momentum in the short term [10][11] - The market is expected to experience continued fluctuations, with a recommendation to engage in grid trading strategies to manage investments effectively [12][18] Bond Market Insights - The current equity-bond yield spread stands at 6.51%, indicating that the overall market's cost-effectiveness is higher than 95.57% of historical data, suggesting a favorable environment for equities [23]

从框架到实战：信评专家详解转债评级逻辑 20250424 摘要 • 可转债评级综合考量业务风险和财务风险，其中财务风险评估侧重历史数 据（2023 年 20%，2024 年 30%）及未来预算（2025 年 50%），并纳 入 ESG 和流动性评估等外部因素。 • 不同行业评级侧重点各异，如光伏制造关注订单保障，电子行业关注产业 链完整度，化工行业重视技术水平和固定资产投资。财务角度则关注资本 结构、盈利能力和偿债能力。 • 可转债评级类似信用债，但更关注股性因素和外部支持（股东及政府）， 支持意愿和能力是关键考量因素，影响企业获得外部资源的能力。 • 2023-2024 年可转债到期兑付金额显著增加，转股难度加大，清偿债务 或成常态。预计 2027-2028 年到期金额将达 1,500-2000 亿，需关注兑 付情况。 • 跟踪评级分为定期和不定期，定期跟踪集中在 5-6 月，不定期跟踪则由重 大事项触发，如经营范围变化、大额诉讼、安全事故等，关注公告需明确 对偿债能力的影响。 • 评级上调需长期观察经营实力、现金流和偿债能力显著好转，以及政府股 东增资等因素，短期业绩好转难以轻易上调评级。 • 光伏行业虽 ...

居然节前还发了只北交所 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众号及作者概不承担任何责任。 安集转债，清源转债：4月25日上市 佳力转债，珀莱转债，宙邦转债，岱美转债，双良转债：不下修 | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 剩余规模 | 现价 | 回售价 | 估算税前 | 估算税前 | 回售登记 | 回售到账 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | (税前) | 回售收益 | 年化收益 | | | | 113656 | 嘉诚转债 | | | | 7.999 118.507 100.530 -15.17% -276.82% 04-30 至 05-09 | | | 2025-05-14 | | 转债代码 | 转债名称 | 现价 | 赎回价 | 最后交易日 | 最后转股日 | 转股价值 | 剩余规模 | 转债占正股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (税前) | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on global capital markets since April, the domestic convertible bond market has shown overall stability, highlighting its defensive and offensive characteristics, with some convertible bonds recently reaching historical highs [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Since April, the domestic convertible bond market has demonstrated resilience amid global market volatility, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index experiencing a significant drop of 4.05% on April 7, marking its largest single-day decline of the year, yet this was less severe than the declines in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices, indicating a defensive nature [3][4]. Recovery and Growth - Following the market rebound starting April 8, many convertible bonds have regained their losses, showcasing their offensive potential. Over 400 convertible bonds have risen since April 8, with more than 40 bonds increasing by over 10%, including notable performers like Fuxin Convertible Bond and Zhongqi Convertible Bond, which saw increases exceeding 20% [4]. Historical Highs - Several convertible bonds have recently reached historical highs, such as Zhongqi Convertible Bond, which surpassed 300 CNY per share, achieving a cumulative increase of 29.43% since April 8 and 149.62% year-to-date [5]. Zhongchong Convertible Bond also approached 200 CNY per share, with a cumulative increase of 36.45% since April 8 and 42.89% year-to-date [7]. Zhenhua Convertible Bond reached a price of 197.981 CNY per share, with a cumulative increase of 24% since April 8 and over 40% year-to-date [9]. Redemption Risks - Despite the overall stability of the convertible bond market compared to equities, there are risks associated with specific terms, such as early redemption clauses. For instance, Huisheng Convertible Bond faced significant declines due to triggering its conditional redemption clause, dropping over 40% from its high of 248 CNY per share since April 7 [12][14]. Similar situations have been observed with Bojie Convertible Bond, which has seen a nearly 20% decline since April due to early redemption [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation of the 2024 annual report performance may gradually materialize, with negative category performance forecasts significantly increasing compared to the previous two years. However, the sentiment in 2025 may be relatively controllable, and the over - selling of low - and medium - rated convertible bonds during the performance disclosure period is not significant [9][10]. - The new "Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. The performance disclosure in April will determine whether some underlying stocks of convertible bonds will face ST/*ST [10]. - The divergence between convertible bonds and underlying stocks may indicate the pressure of inventory liquidation. Attention should be paid to the annual report performance of underlying stocks, especially those with poor subsequent hematopoietic ability, and the potential disturbances caused by institutional inventory liquidation [18][19]. - Last week, the convertible bond market declined, and the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales were compressed [22][30]. - Last week, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Shouhua convertible bonds proposed a downward revision. The approval situation of the China Securities Regulatory Commission for convertible bonds is fair, with a pending issuance scale of about 15.6 billion yuan [48][51]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. How to Identify Risks as the Financial Report Disclosure Enters the Acceleration Phase - *ST Puli will enter the delisting consolidation period on April 28, 2025, and Puli convertible bonds will become the fifth convertible bonds to delist with the underlying stock [1][9]. - As of January 31, among the 254 convertible bond issuers that disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts, the proportion of negative category performance forecasts increased by nearly 10 pcts to 66.93% compared to the previous two years, with the frequency and probability of first - losses and continued losses increasing [9]. - As of April 18, 2025, among the 177 underlying stocks of convertible bonds that announced their 2024 annual performance, 96 achieved a year - on - year positive increase in net profit attributable to the parent, while 79 had a decrease/turn - negative/expanded loss. Low - and medium - rated convertible bonds did not experience significant over - selling during the performance disclosure period [10]. - The "New Nine - Point Plan" has tightened the requirements for dividends. Currently, no disclosed underlying stocks of convertible bonds meet the delisting risk warning criteria. *ST Puli and *ST Tianchuang are under delisting warning, and ST Zhongzhuang and ST Dongshi are under other risk warnings [15][16]. - To avoid inventory liquidation risks or spread losses, forward - looking indicators such as the price trends of stocks and convertible bonds, and negative public opinion events should be considered. Stocks with characteristics such as net profit losses, significant net profit decreases, weak solvency, and private enterprises should be focused on [18][19]. 3.2. Market Review: Weekly Decline and Valuation Compression of Convertible Bonds 3.2.1. Weekly Market Conditions - Last week, the major stock indices showed differentiation, and the convertible bond market declined. There are 481 issued but unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 700.761 billion yuan. Qingyuan, Anji, Weice, and Dinglong convertible bonds have not been listed for trading, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued [22]. - In the equity market, sectors such as banking, real estate, and media led the gains, while machinery, automobiles, and computers led the losses. In the convertible bond market, sectors such as building materials and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while communication, power equipment, and agriculture led the losses [24]. - Among popular concepts, radio frequency and antennas, first - tier real estate developers, etc. led the gains, while optical chips, consumer electronics OEM, etc. led the losses [24]. 3.2.2. Valuation Performance - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 116.33 yuan, a 0.65% decrease from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all decreased [30]. - The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds of various ratings and scales was compressed. The AAA - rated convertible bonds decreased by 3.81 pcts, and the convertible bonds with a scale of over 5 billion yuan decreased by 3.75 pcts. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a par value below 80 yuan (inclusive) increased by 4.72 pcts [30]. 3.3. Terms and Supply: Huisheng and Daowen Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Approval of the CSRC for Convertible Bonds is Fair 3.3.1. Terms - As of April 18, Huisheng and Daowen convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Nuotai convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. Zhongqi, Tianlu, and Fuxin convertible bonds announced no early redemptions. No convertible bonds announced expected fulfillment of redemption conditions [48]. - As of April 18, Shouhua convertible bonds' board of directors proposed a downward revision, and Bohui convertible bonds announced the result of the downward revision, which was basically at the bottom. Thirteen convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 41 convertible bonds announced expected triggers for downward revisions [48]. 3.3.2. Primary Market - Last week, Taineng convertible bonds were newly listed with a scale of 2.95 billion yuan, and there were no new issuances of convertible bonds [50]. - Last week, there were no new board proposals, 5 new shareholder meeting approvals, no new approvals from the issuance review committee, and no new approvals from the CSRC. As of April 18, 6 listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuances with a proposed issuance scale of 12.966 billion yuan, and 4 companies passed the issuance review committee with a total scale of 2.632 billion yuan [51][55].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "百元转股溢价率" (Premium Rate per 100 Yuan Conversion) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to compare the valuation of convertible bonds and their underlying stocks by calculating a time-series comparable valuation indicator, "百元转股溢价率" (Premium Rate per 100 Yuan Conversion), and using rolling historical percentiles to measure the relative allocation value[4][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Fit the relationship curve between the conversion premium rate and conversion value in the cross-sectional space at each time point - Substitute a conversion value of 100 into the fitted formula to obtain the "百元转股溢价率" - Formula: $$y_{i}=\alpha_{0}+\,\alpha_{1}\cdot\,{\frac{1}{x_{i}}}+\epsilon_{i}$$ where \(y_{i}\) represents the conversion premium rate of the \(i\)-th bond, and \(x_{i}\) represents the conversion value of the \(i\)-th bond[44] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a relative valuation perspective for comparing convertible bonds and their underlying stocks[15] 2. Model Name: "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" (Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model isolates the impact of conversion terms on the yield-to-maturity (YTM) of convertible bonds to assess the relative allocation value between debt-heavy convertible bonds and credit bonds[5][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Adjust the YTM of debt-heavy convertible bonds by considering the probability of conversion and maturity - Formula: $$\text{Adjusted YTM} = \text{Convertible Bond YTM} \times (1 - \text{Conversion Probability}) + \text{Expected Annualized Return of Conversion} \times \text{Conversion Probability}$$ - Conversion probability is calculated using the Black-Scholes (BS) model, incorporating stock price, strike price, stock volatility, remaining maturity, and discount rate - Calculate the median difference between the adjusted YTM of convertible bonds and the YTM of credit bonds of the same rating and maturity: $$\text{"Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM Median"} = \text{median}\{X_1, X_2, ..., X_n\}$$ where \(X_i\) represents the difference for the \(i\)-th convertible bond[45][46] - **Model Evaluation**: Highlights the cost-effectiveness of debt-heavy convertible bonds compared to credit bonds[5] 3. Model Name: Convertible Bond Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model captures market sentiment using momentum and volatility deviation indicators to construct a convertible bond style rotation portfolio, with bi-weekly rebalancing[6][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the following sentiment indicators for each convertible bond: - 20-day momentum - Volatility deviation - Rank the indicators in reverse order and sum the rankings to determine the market sentiment capture indicator for each style index: $$\text{Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank (20-day Momentum)} + \text{Rank (Volatility Deviation)}$$ - Allocate portfolio weights based on the rankings, with a preference for the style index with the lowest indicator value. If rankings are equal, allocate weights equally. If all three styles are selected, allocate 100% to the balanced low-valuation style[28] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates superior performance compared to the equal-weighted convertible bond index, with a focus on balanced low-valuation styles[27][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 转股溢价率偏离度 (Conversion Premium Deviation) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of the conversion premium rate from its fitted value, enabling comparability across different parities[19][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $$\text{Conversion Premium Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium Rate} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium Rate}$$ - The number of convertible bonds determines the fitting quality[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a robust measure for identifying valuation discrepancies in convertible bonds[20] 2. Factor Name: 理论价值偏离度 (Theoretical Value Deviation, Monte Carlo Model) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the price expectation gap by considering various convertible bond terms (e.g., conversion, redemption, downward revision, put options) through Monte Carlo simulation[19][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $$\text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1$$ - Simulate 10,000 paths at each time point using the Monte Carlo model, with the same credit term interest rate as the discount rate[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures valuation discrepancies, particularly for equity-heavy convertible bonds[19][20] 3. Factor Name: 转债综合估值因子 (Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines the rankings of the above two factors to enhance valuation analysis across all domains (equity-heavy, balanced, debt-heavy)[19][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $$\text{Comprehensive Convertible Bond Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank (Conversion Premium Deviation)} + \text{Rank (Theoretical Value Deviation)}$$ - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates superior performance in identifying undervalued convertible bonds across different styles[19][20] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Convertible Bond Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 23.38% - **Annualized Volatility**: 16.48% - **Maximum Drawdown**: -15.54% - **IR**: 1.42 - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.50 - **Monthly Win Rate**: 65.12%[33] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 转股溢价率偏离度 Factor - **Equity-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 0.9% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 1.2% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Debt-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of -0.3% over the past 4 weeks[22] 2. 理论价值偏离度 Factor - **Equity-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 0.9% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 1.2% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Debt-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of -0.3% over the past 4 weeks[22] 3. 转债综合估值因子 Factor - **Equity-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 0.9% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of 1.2% over the past 4 weeks[22] - **Debt-Heavy Convertible Bonds**: Enhanced excess return of -0.3% over the past 4 weeks[22]

Core Viewpoint - Lepu Medical reported a significant decline in financial performance for the year 2024, with a notable drop in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 6.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.52% from 2023's 7.98 billion yuan [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 246.94 million yuan, down 80.37% from 1.26 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 221.43 million yuan, reflecting an 80.28% decline from 1.12 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 734.64 million yuan, a decrease of 25.82% compared to 990.36 million yuan in 2023 [2]. Historical Comparison - In 2023, Lepu Medical's operating revenue was 7.98 billion yuan, down 24.78% from 2022 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 1.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.91% from 2022 [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities in 2023 was 990.36 million yuan, down 64.51% from 2022 [3]. Profit Distribution Plan - The company approved a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.35 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders, with no bonus shares [2].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 股票简称：华海药业 股票代码：600521 公告编号：临2025-035号 债券简称：华海转债 债券代码： 110076 浙江华海药业股份有限公司关于"华海转债"预计触发转股价格向下修正的提示性公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●证券代码：600521，证券简称：华海药业 ●转债代码：110076，转债简称：华海转债 ●转股价格：33.21元/股 ●转股时间：2021年5月6日至2026年11月1日 ●根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第12号一一可转换公司债券》规定，"上市公司应当在 预计触发转股价格修正条件的5个交易日前及时披露提示性公告。"自2025年4月4日至2025年4月18日， 公司股票在连续30个交易日中已有10个交易日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的80%，预计触发转股价格向 下修正条件。若触发条件，公司将于触发条件当日召开董事会审议决定是否修正转股价格，并及时履行 信息披露义务。 一、可转债上市发行概况 经中国证券监督 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianjin Green Landscape Ecological Construction Co., Ltd., has announced a potential downward adjustment of the conversion price for its convertible bonds due to the stock price being below a certain threshold for a specified period [2][7]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Basic Information - The convertible bond, known as "Green Landscape Convertible Bond," was issued on April 30, 2021, with a total of 7.12 million bonds, raising 712 million yuan [3]. - The initial conversion price was set at 12.38 yuan per share, which has been adjusted to 12.04 yuan as of May 31, 2023, and further to 11.79 yuan as of May 31, 2024 [5]. - The current conversion price is 11.76 yuan per share, effective from June 12, 2024 [5]. Group 2: Conditions for Downward Adjustment - From April 14 to April 18, 2025, the company's stock price has closed below 85% of the current conversion price for five consecutive trading days, indicating a potential trigger for a downward adjustment [2][7]. - If the stock price continues to remain below this threshold, the company may proceed with the adjustment process as outlined in the bond issuance terms [6][7]. Group 3: Adjustment Procedures - The company has the authority to propose a downward adjustment of the conversion price if the stock price conditions are met, requiring approval from shareholders [6]. - Any adjustments will be publicly announced, detailing the adjustment range, record date, and any suspension of conversion [6].