2025.07. 07 作者 | 一财资讯 7月7日，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.02%，深证成指跌0.7%，创业板指 跌1.21%。全市场超3200只个股上涨。 | 全A | 涨 3254 | 本 185 | 跌 1977 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 000001 | 上证指数 | Min | 3473.13 | 0.81 | 0.02% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | ? | 10435.51 | -73.25 | -0.70% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2 min | 2130.19 | -26.05 | -1.21% | 具体到个股来看，青岛金王、天娱数科、海联金汇获净流入6.42亿元、6.11亿元、5.14亿元。 净流出方面，中际旭创、新易盛、东方财富遭抛售6.92亿元、4.96亿元、3.78亿元。 盘面上，中船系、电力、房地产、互联网电商板块走强，生物制品、减肥药、AI手机板块跌幅居前。 具体来看，地产股盘中拉升，渝开发、沙 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21% respectively, with over 3200 stocks rising overall [1][3] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding, electric power, real estate, and internet e-commerce sectors performed strongly, while the biopharmaceuticals, weight loss drugs, and AI mobile phone sectors saw significant declines [1][3] Notable Stocks - Real estate stocks surged, with companies like Yucheng Development, Shahe Shares, and Nanshan Holdings hitting the daily limit, while others like Haitai Development and JinDi Group also saw gains [3] - Electric power stocks experienced a notable rally, with nearly 10 stocks including Shaoneng Shares and Huayin Electric reaching the daily limit [3] Stock Price Movements - Significant stock price increases included: - Disen Shares (+18.56% to 7.09) - Nanguang Technology (+14.72% to 35.46) - Shaoneng Shares (+10.07% to 6.12) - Huayin Electric (+10.02% to 6.70) - Shimao Energy (+10.01% to 21.00) [4] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the real estate and banking sectors, while education and engineering machinery sectors experienced net outflows [5] - Individual stocks with notable net inflows included Qingdao Kingking, Tianyu Digital Science, and Hailian Jinhui, attracting 642 million, 611 million, and 514 million respectively [6] - Stocks facing significant net outflows included Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Dongfang Caifu, with outflows of 692 million, 496 million, and 378 million respectively [7] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities highlighted the mid-year reporting period as a critical window for identifying structural opportunities, emphasizing the importance of performance-driven investments in sectors like solid-state batteries, copper, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [8] - Guo Cheng Investment noted that small-cap stocks are under pressure due to new regulations on algorithmic trading, which may lead to decreased liquidity in this segment [8] - Zhongxin Jian Investment pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high since 2025, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and positive mid-year earnings forecasts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector is at a convergence of "valuation trough" and "industry transformation," with policy, technology, and capital factors significantly enhancing its investment value [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 30%, although it has recently been fluctuating around the price range of 1.09 [1]. - As of July 7, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Technology Index has achieved a return of 29.04% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hong Kong Internet Index, which recorded returns of 16.24% and 24.30% respectively [3]. Group 2: Valuation and Growth Potential - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI Hong Kong Technology Index is 20.92, which is at the 20.92 percentile of its historical range, indicating a relatively low valuation level with higher safety margins and potential for appreciation [5]. - Bloomberg consensus forecasts suggest that the EPS of the Hang Seng Technology Index will continue to rise annually from 2025 to 2027, supporting the potential for "valuation recovery" and "profit growth" in the sector [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in the Hong Kong technology sector can consider the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) for investment opportunities, while those without stock accounts may look into the Hong Kong Technology ETF feeder funds [6].

Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle companies such as NIO, Xpeng, and Xiaomi are collectively targeting profitability in the fourth quarter, highlighting the critical importance of achieving profitability for their survival in a competitive market [2][5][9]. Group 1: Company Plans and Financial Performance - NIO aims to achieve profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target monthly sales volume of 50,000 units, including 25,000 units from its own brand, reflecting a 20% increase from the previous year's average monthly sales of 20,000 units [3][7]. - Xiaomi's electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 18.1 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a 10.7% quarter-on-quarter growth, and is expected to narrow its losses, aiming for profitability in the third or fourth quarter [3][9]. - Xpeng reported a record delivery of 94,008 vehicles in the first quarter, a 330.8% year-on-year increase, with total revenue reaching 15.81 billion yuan, up 141.5% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.6% [4][9]. Group 2: Strategies for Achieving Profitability - To achieve profitability, companies must focus on increasing sales volume, as seen with NIO's plan to reach 50,000 monthly sales, which is essential for revenue growth [7][9]. - Xpeng is accelerating the launch of new models to boost sales, including the MONA M03 and plans for additional models throughout the year, aiming for significant sales growth [8][13]. - NIO is implementing organizational changes and cost-cutting measures to enhance operational efficiency, with a goal of maintaining a gross margin of 17%-18% and reducing R&D and sales expenses as a percentage of revenue [11][12]. Group 3: Market Context and Competitive Landscape - The push for profitability in the fourth quarter represents a collective challenge for new energy vehicle companies, as many have struggled in a competitive market with increasing pressures from capital markets and reduced policy incentives [2][5][9]. - Successful companies in the sector have demonstrated that achieving profitability is closely linked to significant sales volume increases, as evidenced by competitors like Leap Motor [7][9]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a pivotal moment for these companies, providing an opportunity to solidify their market positions and reassure investors amid a backdrop of recent failures among new energy vehicle startups [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

金融工程 证券研究报告 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 ： 成 长 、 分 红 因 子 表 现 较 好 - 20250705 金融工程 | 金工定期报告 因子 IC 跟踪 IC 方面，最近一周，标准化预期外盈利、季度净利润同比增长、bp 等因 子表现较好，Beta、1 月特异度、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等 因子表现较差；最近一月，1 月特异度、1 个月超额收益率波动、bp 等因 子表现较好，一致预期 EPS 变动、一致预期净利润复合增速、一年动量等 因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月反转、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较好，一年动量、前五大股东持股比例合计、季 度 roa 等因子表现较差。 因子多头组合跟踪 多头组合方面，最近一周，股息率、标准化预期外盈利、季度 ep 等因子 表现较好，Beta、1 月特异度、一致预期净利润复合增速等因子表现较 差；最近一月，季度净利润同比增长、小市值、1 个月超额收益率波动等 因子表现较好，1 个月非流动性冲击、90 天分析师覆盖度、bp 三年分位 数等因子表现较差；最近一年，小市值、1 个月换手率波动、1 个月日均 换手率 ...

Group 1 - McKesson has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.47, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy from 17 brokerage firms, with 76.5% of recommendations being Strong Buy [2][5][14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for McKesson's earnings has increased by 0.2% over the past month to $37.25, reflecting analysts' growing optimism about the company's earnings prospects [13] - McKesson currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting a positive outlook for the stock based on earnings estimate revisions [14] Group 2 - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their recommendations, with five "Strong Buy" ratings for every "Strong Sell," which may mislead investors [6][10] - The ABR is based solely on brokerage recommendations and may not be timely, while the Zacks Rank is a quantitative model that quickly reflects earnings estimate revisions, making it a more reliable indicator of near-term stock performance [9][12] - The Zacks Rank maintains a balance among the five ranks it assigns, ensuring a proportional application across all stocks for which analysts provide earnings estimates [11]

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts expect Levi Strauss (LEVI) to report quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 12.5% [1] - Revenues are anticipated to be $1.37 billion, down 5.2% from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of their initial estimates [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts estimate 'Geographic Revenues- Americas' will reach $712.89 million, showing a year-over-year change of +0.1% [4] - 'Geographic Revenues- Europe' is projected to be $356.88 million, indicating a change of +0.8% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Geographic Revenues- Other Brands' is expected to be $34.25 million, suggesting a significant decline of -70.2% year over year [4] Group 3 - 'Geographic Revenues- Asia' is estimated at $261.86 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +0.7% [5] - Over the past month, shares of Levi Strauss have returned +10.6%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.2% change [5] - Currently, LEVI holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [5]

本期内容转载自公众号「十分之一信箱」 Hi 亲爱的朋友！ 播客「Knock Knock 世界」已经更新到第 40 期了。这一周的节目选题都跟政府和大学「花钱」有关。地铁不 赚钱，政府仍然要花大把的钱修地铁。灭蚊也不赚钱，但大学仍然花钱建造实验基地、研究灭蚊的新方法。而 哈佛大学和特朗普对簿公堂，争的正是各自怎么花钱。记得三期一起听，更有滋味！ 03 在地下文物众多的西安,8 号线地铁挖 着挖着竟然发现了 1300 多座古墓! 那等到施工结束,是不是终于可以卖票 04 赚钱「回回血」啦?答案是,还不行…… 07 世界上最古老的伦敦地铁,从建成到现 在已经 160 多年了,却依旧在亏损。尽 05 有的站点甚至被叫做「最孤独的地铁 站」,一出站看见的不是繁华的街区,而 是长满野草的荒凉郊区。 06 对地方政府来说,地铁不只是一种公共 交通工具,很多地方建了地铁之后,也可 以拉动地铁沿线的经济,抬高土地价格, 让当地政府通过「卖地」等其他方式获得 收入。 管如此,还是有很少一部分城市地铁是 赚钱的,比如,香港地铁、东京地铁。他们 是如何做到盈利的呢? 没有了这些经费,会产生多严重的后果? 01 除了哈佛大学,其他几所 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一年前工党在选举中以压倒性优势上台，虽为英国带来政治稳定和投资机遇，但其国内股市仍深陷困境。自基尔·斯塔默领导的新政 府执政以来，股票投资者回报持续疲软：富时100指数仅上涨7%，与同期德国、西班牙、意大利基准指数17%至27%的涨幅形成鲜明对比。 更令人担忧的是，当前增长势头已显脆弱——市场对工党能否在不加剧财政压力的前提下刺激经济增长缺乏信心，增税或扩大政府借款的预期持续升温， 进一步延长英国债市压力周期。叠加英国中央银行对降息的谨慎态度，投资者对英国经济及股市前景的疑虑难以消散。 英国央行制造的"不对称风险环境"尤为棘手：长期利率存在下行底线却无明确上限，"若全球经济增长未显著恶化，这种结构将持续压制英国资产"。 图2 这一压力既作用于富时100指数的国际大盘股，也波及本土中小盘股。即将到来的财报季将成为检验企业能否突破利率逆风的关键窗口。此外，英镑大幅 升值可能成为财报会议焦点——富时100成分股约75%收入来自海外，今年英镑兑美元已升值9.3%。 图1 德意志银行旗下DWS集团全球股票联席主管托马斯·舒斯勒指出："政府可操作空间有限，财政余力和投资者容忍度均面临约束。"尽管英国股 ...