特朗普再挥关税大棒，纽铜价格创下新高。 今日，铜相关个股高开低走，A股北方铜业一度涨超5%，现翻绿，紫金矿业跌超3%，鹏欣资源跌超2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅%个 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洛阳辑业 | 8.10 | -5.15 | +26.66% | | 高等地,不 | 19.11 | -3.58 | +28.71% | | 西部矿业 | 16.37 | -3.54 | +8.63% | | 楚江新材 | 9.01 | -2.38 | +9.88% | | 鹏欣资源 | 4.49 | -2.18 | +36.78% | | 日银有色 | 3.17 | -1.86 | +14.03% | | 江西铜业 | 23.05 | -1.54 | +11.68% | | 铜陵有色 | 3.35 | -1.76 | +7.03% | | 北方铜业 | 11.32 | -1.22 | +45.13% | | 金田股份 | 7.06 | -1.12 | +21.93% | | 电工合金 | 14.79 | -1.00 | +54.47% | | ST盛屯 | 7.28 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is poised for growth due to increased production capacity and strong demand in the AI-related PCB sector, with a focus on high-end products and strategic pricing adjustments [2][3]. Group 1: Company Developments - The company's subsidiary, Jiangxi Shengyi Technology, has successfully commissioned its first production line of the second phase project, adding a monthly capacity of 500,000 square meters of copper-clad laminate (CCL) by June 2025, with a total investment of 1.3 billion yuan [2]. - The second phase project, once fully operational, is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 18 million square meters of high-end CCL and 34 million meters of adhesive sheets [2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with ongoing construction to enhance its global competitiveness [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Downstream AI-PCB manufacturers are ramping up capacity, with notable investments such as Shenghong Technology's 250 million USD for computing power expansion and Huadian's 3.6 billion yuan for its Huangshi base [2]. - The demand for AI-related products is expected to drive an increase in production rates and profitability, with a notable rise in orders for AI servers, automotive HDI, and high-end consumer products [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the third quarter will maintain the momentum seen in the second quarter, with a high order visibility from leading PCB manufacturers [2]. - The pricing strategy and order structure adjustments completed in Q2 are expected to be executed in Q3, contributing to improved gross margins [2]. - The CCL industry is expected to see stable price increases due to rising copper prices and adjustments in glass fiber cloth prices [2]. Group 4: Future Projections - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 being adjusted upwards, reflecting a positive outlook on high-end product demand in AI computing and other sectors [4]. - The company is expected to leverage its technological leadership and capacity in high-speed materials to capture a larger market share, particularly in the ASIC field [3].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 09 日 生益科技（600183.SH） 订单满载 Q3 望延续高景气，高速材料放量份额持续提升 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：1）公司子公司江西生益科技二期项目首组产线于 2025 年 6 月顺利连线 调试并投产，为公司新增覆铜板月产能 50 万平方米，二期项目投资总额达 13 亿元，全面投产后，可实现年产 1800 万平方米高端覆铜板及 3400 万米商品粘 结片的新增产能。2）近期下游 AI-PCB 厂商纷纷加大产能扩张力度：胜宏科技 国内惠州厂房四 6 月中旬投产，同时增资泰国胜宏 2.5 亿美元用于算力产能建 设；沪电股份拟未来 6 年投资 36 亿元用于黄石基地扩产；方正科技拟定增 19 亿用于 AI 算力类 HDI 板产业基地建设。我们结合 PCB 行业动态及公司最新业 务进展情况更新观点如下： ❑ Q3 需求及产能稼动率将延续 Q2 势头，涨价策略及订单结构调整 Q2 完成并 在 Q3 执行。公司 Q2 对下游客户完成涨价策略，Q3 下游头部 PCB 厂商订单 能见度高，目前公司的接单和稼动率将延续 Q2 势头，AI 服务器、汽车 HDI ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Chipbond Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Chipbond Technology - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and Advanced Packaging Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Chipbond Technology benefits from the growing demand for AI computing power, leading to a full order book for PCB exposure equipment [2][3] - The company signed a contract worth 146 million CNY for LDI (Laser Direct Imaging) equipment, indicating strong demand [2][3] - The LDI equipment market is expected to remain robust until 2026, supported by expansion plans from major companies [2][3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company has scheduled production through the end of Q3 2025, with monthly production of approximately 80 to 100 units in Q2 [5] - Projected revenue growth for 2025 is approximately 290 million CNY, representing an 80% year-over-year increase [5][11] Competitive Positioning - Chipbond's products are competitive in both PCB and advanced semiconductor fields, with a focus on high-value exposure processes [6] - The company’s LDI equipment is cost-effective, approximately half the cost of traditional projection exposure equipment, and is recognized by leading clients [3][9] - Performance metrics of Chipbond's products surpass those of international competitors, establishing a strong market position [6] Growth Opportunities - The advanced packaging and IC substrate sectors are expected to see significant growth, with IC substrate projected to grow by 50% to 100% by 2025 [3][7][10] - The company has developed 3-4 micron resolution capabilities in the IC substrate field, aligning with international standards [10] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in AI computing demand, which is driving investments in high-layer PCBs and HDI boards [7][8] - The overall market outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued strong performance and profitability [7][11] Valuation and Stock Performance - Current valuation is around 40 times earnings, with historical averages closer to 50 times, suggesting potential for stock price appreciation [11] Additional Insights - The company’s advanced packaging technology addresses challenges in wafer reconstruction, enhancing operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness [9] - The anticipated recovery in the IC substrate market is expected to contribute to a strong rebound in equipment demand [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical module and related industries, particularly focusing on the demand for optical modules, PCBs, and other network-side products driven by significant growth in TOKEN users and Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Growth in AI Monetization**: From April to June, TOKEN usage increased four to five times compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial rise in inference computing demand, which benefits the related supply chain [1][5]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: Current optical module products are not affected by U.S. tariffs, but potential 232 industry taxes could be a concern. A 25% tax increase would have limited impact on customers due to existing tariffs [4][12]. - **Market Performance**: North American cloud service providers reported better-than-expected revenue, and major model companies are seeing significant growth in TOKEN users and ARR, which is driving demand for optical modules and PCBs [2][5]. - **Future Demand Projections**: By 2025, demand for computing power will increasingly be driven by inference rather than training, with ASICs expected to account for a larger share of the market, significantly increasing the value of optical modules and PCBs compared to GPUs [1][6][8]. - **AI Revenue Growth**: AI-related revenues are projected to reach hundreds of billions to a trillion dollars by the end of the year, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic showing rapid ARR growth [1][6][7]. Additional Important Points - **Market Valuation**: Current market valuations for leading companies are relatively low, not fully reflecting the growth potential of optical modules and PCBs. A PE ratio of at least 20 is suggested for these sectors [3][12][15]. - **Technological Developments**: The introduction of new technologies, such as the 1.6T optical module, is expected to accelerate growth in the industry, with significant releases anticipated in the coming quarters [5][14]. - **Cost Efficiency**: ASICs have a lower cost per Flops compared to GPUs, with a cost efficiency ratio of 2-3 times better, leading to a wide range of cost fluctuations [9][10]. - **Long-term Growth Predictions**: By 2026, the growth rate for optical modules and PCBs is expected to reach 20-30%, driven by the increasing share of ASICs in the market [10][11]. Conclusion - The optical module and PCB industries are poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI, increased demand for inference computing, and favorable market conditions. The current market undervaluation presents potential investment opportunities, with a strong outlook for the coming years.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of enhancing the resilience and security of supply chains in the energy and chemical industry due to global economic changes and rising uncertainties [1] - Experts suggest that digital transformation is a key path for reshaping the supply chain ecosystem in the energy and chemical sector [1] - The current global industrial system is experiencing diversification, regional cooperation, green transformation, and accelerated digitalization [1] Group 2 - The development of artificial intelligence, computing power, and new energy is introducing unpredictable factors into global supply chains [2] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their supply chain optimization capabilities through digital systems that enable perception, transmission, decision-making, and execution [2] - Various companies shared their experiences in digitalizing procurement processes during the conference, highlighting the importance of customer-centric approaches and digital transformation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the stock performance of Shenghong Technology is attributed to the rising interest in sectors such as AI computing power, new energy vehicles, 6G, PCB, and Huawei's HarmonyOS, making it a standout in the A-share market [1] Company Performance - Shenghong Technology's stock price has reached historical highs, closing at 146.31 yuan per share on July 4, with a market capitalization of 126.2 billion yuan, making it the first company in Huizhou to surpass the 100 billion yuan market cap [1] - The company has seen its market capitalization increase significantly, surpassing key milestones from 600 billion yuan in March to 1.26 trillion yuan in July, marking an increase of over 60 billion yuan in just over three months [4][5] - For the fiscal year 2024, Shenghong Technology reported revenue of 10.731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, and in Q1 2025, it achieved revenue of 4.312 billion yuan, up 80.32% year-on-year, with a net profit of 921 million yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 339.22% [5] Industry Context - China is the largest PCB production base globally, with Huizhou being a key hub in this sector. Among the 20 listed companies in Huizhou, four are PCB manufacturers, including Shenghong Technology, which collectively generated 19.405 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 [6] - In Q1 2025, these four PCB companies all reported positive revenue growth, totaling 6.519 billion yuan, indicating a robust performance in the PCB manufacturing sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors, including Chipone Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Huakong Technology [4][45]. Core Insights - Oracle has signed a significant cloud service agreement expected to generate over $30 billion annually starting from FY2028, which will account for approximately 52% of its total revenue for FY2025 [1][8]. - The demand for AI computing power is driven by three main application scenarios: third-party large language model (LLM) training, sovereign AI infrastructure development, and customized private cloud solutions for enterprise clients [2][33]. - The global AI computing landscape is evolving with both GPGPU and ASIC technologies advancing rapidly, indicating a dual-track growth in the market [3][12]. Summary by Sections Oracle's Major Contract and GPU Demand - Oracle's recent contract is a record-breaking deal that significantly impacts its revenue structure, highlighting the rapid growth in AI model and cloud service demand [1][8]. - To meet this demand, Oracle has procured approximately 400,000 NVIDIA GB200 high-end computing cards, making it the second-largest holder of NVIDIA's high-end computing cards globally [1][9]. Global AI Computing Landscape - The AI computing market is bifurcating into two main technology camps: GPGPU, led by NVIDIA, and ASIC, driven by companies like Google and Amazon [3][12]. - GPGPU technology is particularly suited for large model training and general AI applications, while ASIC technology focuses on optimizing specific tasks such as AI inference and cost efficiency [3][22]. New Growth Drivers for NVIDIA GPGPU Demand - The demand for NVIDIA's GPGPU is primarily fueled by three areas: third-party LLM training, sovereign AI initiatives, and enterprise-level private cloud deployments [33][34]. - The training of large models, such as GPT-3, requires substantial computational power, which NVIDIA's GPUs provide efficiently [34][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong core technologies and competitive advantages in the AI computing supply chain, including Chipone Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Huakong Technology [4][43]. - The long-term demand for computing power is expected to be robust, driven by sovereign AI, accelerated large model training, and enterprise private cloud deployments [4][44].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 260 points or 1.1%, closing at 24,148 points, driven by a rebound in technology stocks[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.8%, closing at 5,325 points, with a total market turnover exceeding HKD 213.3 billion[1] - Net inflow into Hong Kong Stock Connect was HKD 386 million, indicating positive sentiment in the market[1] Sector Performance - Cathay Financial International (1788 HK) surged by 28.5%, becoming the most actively traded stock with a turnover of HKD 12.8 billion[1] - Other notable performers included Kuaishou (1024 HK), which rose by 5.2%, reaching a three-month high[1] - The gaming, cultural tourism, brokerage, and consumer electronics sectors showed strong performance, with major tech stocks like Alibaba (9988 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK) rising by 1.5% and 3.6% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities reached 1.89 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, showing improvement compared to the previous week's 23.1% drop[5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 63.1, higher than last year's 59.7 but lower than the previous week's 68.2[7] - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities increased by 15.3% year-on-year, totaling 2.063 million square meters[8] Policy and Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high-level fluctuations, with a focus on technology stocks for further upward movement[2] - Long-term capital is improving, suggesting no need for significant reduction in positions[2] - The government is expected to implement supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may benefit both state-owned and local enterprises[11]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业周观点：Meta 整合 AI 架构，OpenAI 签署算力大单 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 27 周，通信板块下跌 0.21%，在长江一级行业中排名 30 位；2025 年年初以来，通 信板块上涨 7.85%，在长江一级行业中排名第 13 位。Meta 重组 AI 架构并重金挖角行业精英， 加速"超级智能"研发；OpenAI 与甲骨文签署 300 亿美元算力租赁协议，规模达 4.5GW，并 联手甲骨文、软银、MGX 发起全球最大 AI 基础设施投资。AI 与算力主线景气延续，当前通信 板块估值处于历史低位，具备较高配置性价比。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信行业周观点： 2] Meta 整合 AI 架构，OpenAI 签署算力大单 [Table_Summ ...