近日，党的二十届四中全会在北京举行。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中之一 是"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。 全会还提出，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人 均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平，人民生活更加幸福美好，基本实现社会主义现代化。 围绕上述目标，全会提出了"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基""加快高水平科技自立自 强，引领发展新质生产力"等战略任务。 如何理解"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标？现代化产业体系建设、科技自立自强、大力提振消 费、加大改善民生力度等战略任务之间，存在哪些内在关联，如何协同推进？为此，21世纪经济报道对 香港中文大学（深圳）前海国际事务研究院院长郑永年进行了专访。 郑永年认为，"十五五"时期要提振消费、提高消费率，并不能简单依靠发钱，关键还是要通过发展实体 经济、发展制造业，来提高全社会消费水平。在他看来，一切经济和科技发展的落脚点都在民生，在于 能否更好地"投资于人"，这也是讨论"十五五"发展的重要视角。 "十四五"期间，我国在科技领域实现了很多突破，这为我国的经济发展带来了很大的信心，也为"十 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamental-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing the 4000-point mark [1][5][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the outcomes of the upcoming China-US talks and the APEC meeting at the end of October, as these could signal a stabilization in geopolitical and economic relations [1][2][28] Group 2 - The report suggests that there is a high probability of China and the US moving towards cooperation by the end of the year, drawing parallels to past G20 meetings that led to significant trade agreements [2][28] - It highlights that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on economic construction and emphasizes the need for technological self-reliance and expanding domestic demand [3][4][34] Group 3 - The report notes a structural shift in the A-share market, with high-priced stocks showing volatility while low-priced stocks are recovering, indicating a potential style switch in investment strategies [5][21][44] - It points out that the technology sector's performance relative to cyclical stocks is at historical highs, suggesting a possible pause in the tech sector's leading role in the market [5][44] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to significantly enhance technological independence and expand domestic consumption, indicating a strategic shift in China's economic focus [4][41][39] - It also mentions the importance of creating a modern industrial system and the integration of technological innovation with industrial application to drive future economic growth [36][40][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session clearly proposed to accelerate high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength. The underlying logics of the long - term supply - demand imbalance of convertible bonds, the equity bull market, and the technology mainline have not changed. Convertible bonds are brewing structural opportunities in the short term. Balanced allocation can cope with the volatile situation, waiting for the equity market to find a new direction and consolidate the foundation for a new round of trends [1][3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The convertible bond index has turned to a volatile state and showed resilience during the adjustment. Since September, in the market adjustment process, the convertible bond market has shown certain resilience with a smaller adjustment range than the underlying stocks. The rigid demand of fixed - income plus funds has kept the convertible bond price and valuation center at a high level. In the past week, the market volume shrank, with the average daily trading volume of the whole market only being 50 - 60 billion yuan, and the turnover rate has been decreasing since September [8] - With the maturity and exit of Pufa Convertible Bonds, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market has significantly decreased. The number of convertible bonds that can still be in existence (i.e., not subject to forced redemption) has decreased to 402, and the outstanding scale has dropped below 570 billion yuan. The power equipment industry has become the industry with the largest outstanding scale, and bank convertible bonds have become the second - largest. The proportion of high - rated convertible bonds has decreased to 31%. As of now in 2025, the issuance scale of new bonds is 42.4 billion yuan, and there may still be 5 convertible bonds entering the issuance and listing process before the end of the year. Recently, there are two positive signals in convertible bond supply: the number of convertible bond issuance plans has increased significantly, and the regulatory approval pace has accelerated. The convertible bond market is expected to see marginal improvement in 2026 [8] - The scale of new bonds listed this year is not small, and the pricing is high in a bull - market atmosphere, with relatively concentrated floating chips. As of now in 2025, the issuance scale of new bonds is 42.4 billion yuan, with the average conversion premium rate on the listing day being 37% and the average increase or decrease on the first day being 33%. The average conversion premium rate of new bonds listed this year is still 38%, significantly higher than the market average. The bull - market atmosphere combined with the relatively small floating chips of new bonds has led to relatively concentrated chips and pushed up the pricing of new bonds. There may still be 5 convertible bonds entering the issuance and listing process before the end of the year [9] - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session clearly proposed to accelerate high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength, consolidating the underlying logic of the technology mainline. Sino - US relations are expected to enter a new stable period by the end of the month. The underlying logic of the long - term bull market in the equity market remains unchanged, and technology is still the mainline of the market. The underlying logics of the long - term supply - demand imbalance of convertible bonds, the equity bull market, and the technology mainline have not changed [9] - Convertible bonds are brewing structural opportunities in the short term, and balanced allocation can cope with the volatile situation. First, varieties with relatively low premium rates are more resistant to decline. Currently, low - premium convertible bond varieties are concentrated in the technology track, and short - term suppression of risk appetite may increase the volatility of the underlying stocks. Second, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds still have strong gambling value. On the one hand, they have strong bond - floor protection and limited downside space; on the other hand, if some funds from the underlying stocks swing back to defensive sectors, fundamental catalysts or clause gambling materialize, it may bring excess returns. Investors can select and lay out varieties with "double - low" characteristics (low price + low premium) or "low price + high elasticity" potential by combining fundamentals, clause settings, and market sentiment. In October, investors are advised to pay attention to Shanghai Bank Convertible Bonds, Shouhua Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Kangtai Convertible Bonds 2, Baolong Convertible Bonds, Keshun Convertible Bonds, Yingbo Convertible Bonds, Huaya Convertible Bonds, Wankai Convertible Bonds, and Luwei Convertible Bonds [10] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (recent one week, recent two weeks, since September, recent one month, recent two months, recent half - year, and recent one year), including the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [13] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - No specific summary information provided, only source information is given [15] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - No specific summary information provided, only some charts are mentioned [17] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - No specific summary information provided, only some charts are mentioned [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [1][40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are likely to maintain their current interest rates, while the decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are uncertain [1][40]. - The China-US trade issue remains a key focus. Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [1][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. One - Week Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of October 24th, 16:30, the US dollar index appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The offshore yuan, the Japanese yen, the euro, and the British pound depreciated against the US dollar, while the on - shore yuan appreciated slightly against the US dollar [3]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and the policy showed characteristics of inheritance and innovation [3]. - The achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" laid a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][13]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is highly consistent with the "14th Five - Year Plan" in core goals and adds three innovative directions in implementation paths [8][14]. - The four core views of the "15th Five - Year Plan" are stable growth, enhanced security, innovation promotion, and domestic demand expansion [9][15]. - In general, the "15th Five - Year Plan" pays more attention to systematicness, integrity, and synergy, with a policy logic shift from "development priority" to "balanced development and security," from "factor - driven" to "innovation - driven," and from "external demand - driven" to "domestic demand - driven" [10][16]. - Key word analysis shows that in the "15th Five - Year Plan," "high - quality development" is deepened from concept to practice, "scientific and technological self - reliance" is elevated in strategic status, "security" is emphasized as a "security barrier," "consumption" and "investment" strengthen the domestic demand - driven strategy, and "finance" shifts from system construction to embedded support [17][21][22][23][24]. 1.2 Weekly Review of the US Dollar Against the Chinese Yuan Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan remained stable, with a fluctuation range of 7.115 - 7.129. The appreciation - oriented central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and stable domestic macro - economic data jointly promoted the stable operation of the exchange rate [36]. - The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was mostly in sync with the US dollar index. The US dollar index rebounded in the first half of last week due to the US government shutdown and the expected fiscal expansion policy in Japan [36][37]. 1.3 Market Outlook - If there is no significant news stimulus, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is likely to remain stable or decline slightly this week, with the main fluctuation range expected to be between 7.10 and 7.13 [40]. - This week is a new "Super Central Bank Week." The decisions of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts are uncertain [40]. - Attention should be paid to whether the leaders of China and the United States will meet and reach a trade agreement during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting [40]. 2. Observation of the Chinese Yuan Market 2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0928, depreciating 21 basis points from the previous Friday. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate has shifted from neutral to stabilizing the exchange rate (in the direction of yuan depreciation expectation) [42]. 2.2 Investor Expectation and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectation**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with cross - border capital flows active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand relatively balanced. Although there was a small net outflow of cross - border funds in September, it turned into an inflow in October [49]. - **Overseas Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the spread between the offshore and on - shore yuan showed that overseas investors' sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation had declined [53]. - **Professional Investor Expectation**: As of last Friday, the closing price of the 1 - year NDF of the US dollar against the offshore yuan declined slightly. The short - term market sentiment towards the yuan's appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the medium - term appreciation sentiment increased [55]. 2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided [60][61]. - **Singapore Renminbi Futures Market**: Information on the trading prices and basis of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract is provided, as well as a comparison of the basis with the Hong Kong Exchange [63][64][66]. 3. Key Data and Events to Watch 3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Various economic data such as GDP, industrial added value, and consumer price index were released. The "15th Five - Year Plan" goals were put forward, and policies in multiple fields such as agriculture, foreign exchange, and real estate were announced [69][70]. - **US**: Economic data such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index were released. There were also events such as the termination of trade negotiations with Canada and the impact of the government shutdown on inflation data [71][72]. - **UK**: The Bank of England started stress - testing the private credit market, and inflation data was released, leading traders to increase bets on interest rate cuts [73]. - **Eurozone**: Data showed that the net financial situation of EU member states deteriorated, and the PMI data of the eurozone improved [74]. - **Japan**: A new prime minister was elected, and economic measures and inflation data were announced [75]. - **Others**: South Korea issued foreign exchange stabilization bonds, and the global payment share of the yuan increased [76]. 3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Speeches Summary - Speeches from central banks in China, the United States, Japan, etc., were involved, including topics such as APEC meetings, interest rate policies, and exchange rate expectations [77][78][79]. 3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Watch - A list of important data and events to be announced this week in different regions, including China, the United States, Canada, Japan, etc., is provided, along with their importance, previous values, and expected values [81]. 4. International Related Market Conditions 4.1 Exchange Rates of Major Countries - Graphs showing the trends of exchange rates of major countries such as the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Korean won, etc., are presented [83][85][86]. 4.2 Linkage of Major Asset Classes - Graphs showing the trends of major asset classes such as London gold, VIX, Brent crude oil, etc., are presented [104][105][106]. 4.3 Funding Situation - Graphs showing central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are presented [114][116]. 4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Graphs showing the trends of the China - US interest rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield are presented [118][119]. 4.5 Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Index - A graph showing the trends of three major Chinese yuan exchange rate indexes is presented [122]. 4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Graphs showing the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures are presented [124][126].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes increasing investment in the theme of technological self-reliance and strength, supported by significant policy backing from the recent Fourth Plenary Session, which highlights the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance as a core development line for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The report indicates that the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports will be released, suggesting a focus on core sectors with strong growth potential while also identifying alpha opportunities in companies with standout financial results [1] - The domestic computing power sector is experiencing high prosperity, with notable capitalizations of core chip manufacturers, as evidenced by the successful IPO of Mu Xi Co., a leading high-performance general GPU company, and the rapid revenue growth of companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian [1] Group 2 - The second chapter of the report focuses on tracking the AI browser industry, particularly in relation to OpenAI's release of Atlas, which is expected to accelerate penetration in this sector [2]

Core Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes high-quality development and deepening reform and innovation as key signals for the future economic landscape [2][11][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on maintaining reasonable growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with technological development as the core driver of economic growth [2][17] Economic Development Signals - The session highlights the importance of focusing on the real economy, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, and building a strong domestic market [11][12] - The principles of "effective market and proactive government" are reiterated, showcasing confidence in the long-term positive trajectory of the Chinese economy [11][12] Industry Opportunities - Key industries expected to thrive include advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment, smart robotics, new materials, energy storage, and rail transportation [24][25] - Strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology are anticipated to gain significant opportunities [33][34] Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is positioned as the core driver of economic growth, with a focus on original innovation and the integration of technology and industry [26][27] - Public funds are encouraged to engage in the technology innovation cycle, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy equipment [26][27] Green Development - The session calls for a comprehensive green transition, shifting the energy structure from coal-dominated to clean and diversified sources, with significant investment opportunities in new energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles [29][30][31] - Green industries are expected to become investment hotspots, with related companies benefiting from expanded financing channels [31][32] Future Growth Pillars - The four pillars of future economic growth are identified as "technology, green development, manufacturing, and people's livelihood," which align with national strategies and market maturity [32][33] - Industries linked to technological self-reliance, digital economy, green economy, biomedicine, and modern services are projected to experience favorable growth opportunities [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China outlines a blueprint for the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on "technology + green + manufacturing + livelihood" as new driving forces for China's economy [2][12][35]. Summary by Sections Positive Signals from the Plenary Session - The session highlights a commitment to high-quality development and deepening reform and innovation, indicating that the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing quality and efficiency while maintaining reasonable growth [4][12]. - Key themes include high-quality development, technological self-reliance, green transformation, and institutional openness, suggesting a shift from responding to uncertainties to shaping new certainties [12][20]. Economic Growth and Structural Opportunities - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to prioritize the real economy, emphasizing the importance of advanced manufacturing, intelligent infrastructure, and energy system restructuring [24][35]. - Industries such as advanced manufacturing, high-end equipment, smart robotics, new materials, and energy storage are identified as key support sectors for economic growth [24][35]. Role of Technology in Economic Development - Technology is positioned as the primary driver of economic growth, with a focus on original innovation and the integration of technology and industry [27][28]. - Public funds are encouraged to engage in the technology innovation cycle, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy equipment [27][28]. Green Transformation and Its Impact - The article discusses the transition to a green economy, with a shift in the energy structure from coal-dominated to clean and diversified sources, creating investment opportunities in renewable energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles [31][32]. - Green industries are expected to become investment hotspots, with significant growth in sectors like renewable energy, energy efficiency, and circular economy [32][33]. Key Industries for Future Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" identifies several industries with growth potential, including advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, green construction, and healthcare services [35][36]. - The focus on AI, solid-state batteries, and commercial aerospace indicates a strong interest in sectors that align with national strategies and market demands [35][36].

【导读】私募基金解读党的二十届四中全会精神：为投资提供重要指导，关注科技创新、扩大内需等主 线 10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在北京举行，全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。10月23日，党的二十届四中全会公报（以下简称公报）发布。 紫阁投资表示，今年前三季度GDP增速为5.2%，超过了年初设定值。不过，相对于上半年5.3%的增 速，三季度经济增速下滑，四季度经济增长依然面临压力。因此，市场期待后续在稳增长、稳就业等方 面出台政策，加大促进经济企稳的力度。 星石投资副总经理、高级合伙人方磊表示，全会提出要"构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系"， 后续制造业增加值占GDP比重可能是重要指标；公报提出"加快建设制造强国、质量强国、航天强国、 交通强国、网络强国"，为"十五五"产业政策指明方向；全会提出要"抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革历 史机遇"，显示科技创新可能逐渐成为新的经济增长逻辑和主要动力，科技领域蕴含中长期机会；此 外，对内需的重视程度明显提升，加大在需求端的发力力度并着力培育新的消费增长点，中期视角下消 费的投资机会有望增加。 世诚投资表示，"十五 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions express confidence in China's economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, as highlighted by the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [2][10]. Group 1: Focus on Technology and Innovation - The session emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strengthening the modern industrial system, indicating a shift towards an ecosystem-driven strategy and increased support for industries to enhance productivity rather than just scale [4]. - Key macro themes include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological innovation, and developing a strong domestic market, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [4][6]. - Research and development spending is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 7%, aiming for over 3.2% of GDP by 2030, translating to approximately 5.5 trillion to 6.0 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and High-Level Opening Up - The session indicates a shift towards prioritizing policies that address structural challenges and enhance domestic demand, with a focus on improving social welfare and consumption [8][9]. - The strategy includes a commitment to expanding domestic demand while promoting new supply and creating new demand, linking consumption policies closely with social safety nets and public service access [8][9]. - The plan also aims to expand high-level opening up, maintaining a multilateral trade system and enhancing international cooperation, which is crucial given the ongoing trade tensions [9]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - By 2035, the goal is for significant improvements in economic, technological, and defense capabilities, with per capita GDP expected to reach between 25,000 to 30,000 USD [11][12]. - The projected annual GDP growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, with a focus on synchronizing per capita income growth with GDP growth [12].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the technology sector regaining momentum, driven by improved risk appetite due to easing geopolitical tensions and favorable U.S. inflation data [2][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals were clarified during the Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing technological self-reliance and the cultivation of emerging industries [2][6] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2][16] Recent Economic Data - The GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.8%, a decrease from 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a marginal slowdown in economic growth [3][4] - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in September, with high-tech industries growing at 10.3% [3][4] - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, reflecting the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy [3][4] Policy Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session outlined major goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan," including significant improvements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance [6][7] - The session emphasized the importance of addressing rural issues and promoting urban-rural integration, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7] - Financial policies will focus on maintaining stability in capital markets and enhancing the resilience of the financial system [6][7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.0% [2][16] - Among 31 sectors, 28 reported positive returns, with telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors leading the gains [2][16] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.8 trillion yuan, a drop of 18.04% from the previous week [2][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from both domestic and external demand, particularly in technology and traditional cyclical industries [2][16] - It also highlights the potential for improvement in sectors driven by policy support and those currently undervalued in the consumer space [2][16] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" guidelines and quarterly earnings reports for further investment insights [20]