Core Viewpoint - The 2026 China Chief Economist Forum highlighted a significant shift in the perception of Chinese assets, transitioning from "overseas optional" to "globally unavoidable," driven by policy certainty, industrial innovation, and unprecedented support from capital markets [1] Policy Determination: Solidifying Development Foundations - High policy certainty is identified as the core support for Chinese assets, with a notable shift in foreign investors' perspectives towards viewing Chinese assets as indispensable [3] - The 2025 timeline is emphasized as a pivotal year for China's strategic goals, with successful implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and "Made in China 2025" initiatives [3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is noted for its clearer direction and specific deployment across traditional and emerging industries, showcasing a robust modern industrial system [3] Industry Breakthrough: Activating Growth Momentum - A complete industrial ecosystem and efficient innovation conversion capabilities are seen as key factors for the optimism surrounding Chinese assets [6] - The strong traditional manufacturing base is crucial for nurturing emerging industries, with examples in robotics and AI demonstrating the interdependence of new and traditional sectors [6] - The AI sector is highlighted for its potential to create a virtuous economic cycle through a comprehensive industrial ecosystem that transforms technological potential into commercial value [8] Capital Focus: Investment Opportunities from Revaluation Waves - Investment opportunities in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are summarized under three keywords: development, people, and security [10] - Emphasis is placed on developing new productive forces, which include both strategic emerging industries and the transformation of traditional sectors [10] - Key investment opportunities identified include mergers and acquisitions, overseas expansion of Chinese companies, technology innovation-related ventures, and opportunities in REITs and similar assets [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of Zheshang Bank, Yin Jianfeng, expressed optimism about Chinese assets in 2026, suggesting that strategic emerging industries are maturing and traditional sectors are recovering from various shocks [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Historically, years of the horse in the Chinese zodiac have coincided with economic stabilization: 1978 marked the beginning of reform and opening up; 1990 was the lowest point after turmoil; 2002 was the first year after joining the WTO, leading to a decade of growth; and 2014 was on the eve of a new investment cycle [1] - The year 2026 is expected to follow this trend, indicating a potentially favorable economic environment [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Traditional industries are gradually recovering from impacts, while cyclical industries may enter a new cycle [1] - Strategic emerging industries are transitioning from infancy to strength, with new growth drivers capable of revitalizing older sectors [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in cyclical sectors, particularly in energy cycles, with oil, petrochemicals, and coal industries closely aligned with the London crude oil price index [1] - Additionally, the non-ferrous metals and chemical products sectors are noted for their strong correlation with the London copper price [1]

"中国资产不可投资论"退潮。 1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，西班牙对外银行（BBVA）首席经济学家夏乐指出，在美元大循环边际弱化、数字货币重塑国际支付 体系的背景下，人民币国际化正重新站上顺风口。 同时，产业链重构与中国企业"走出去"正在创造更多跨境人民币使用场景；人民币汇率中期偏强、双边本币互换和跨境支付合作经验不断积累；CIPS体系、 海外清算行及多边"货币桥"项目的实践，也持续夯实人民币国际化的基础。 "更值得关注的是，海外投资者对中国资产的认知正在发生转变，'中国资产不可投资论'明显退潮，部分机构已将中国市场视为对冲美国科技资产泡沫的重 要选择。"夏乐表示。 尽管前景向好，夏乐强调，必须清醒认识到美元霸权不会轻易让位。人民币国际化的目标不应是取代美元，而是获得足够的体系性影响力。展望未来，他认 为，人民币国际化仍面临一系列现实政策抉择，包括如何在数字货币和支付"出海"路径上进行更优组合，以及如何在复杂地缘政治环境下稳步推进制度型开 放。 在夏乐看来，人民币国际化"风再起"的关键，首先来自外部环境的变化。其一，美国"MAGA"政策及高关税取向正在侵蚀美元的主导地位。2025年春 ...

Market Overview - On January 7, U.S. stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 466 points, a decline of 0.94%, closing at 48,996.08 points [4] - The market initially showed optimism with a high opening but faced a sharp decline towards the end of the trading session, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment from anticipation of interest rate cuts to concerns over tightening policies [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026, with officials indicating that the current policy is close to "neutral" and that the space for rate cuts is limited [4] - Key economic indicators, including a slower pace of inflation decline and a strong labor market, have contributed to the Fed's cautious stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [4] Chinese Assets Performance - In contrast to the U.S. market, Chinese assets showed strong performance on January 7, with several Chinese concept stocks experiencing significant gains, including a 70.83% increase in Zhongchi Chefu and a 28.53% rise in 3ENetwork Technology [5] - The Hong Kong ADR index also saw a positive trend, closing at 23,246 points, up 174.04 points, with major stocks like Tencent and HSBC contributing to the upward movement [5]

Group 1 - UBS Securities Chairman Hu Zhizhe stated that the performance of China's capital market in 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, but currently, Chinese assets are not "overheated" [1] - The IPO boom in Hong Kong may continue into 2026, according to UBS Securities Global Investment Banking Co-Head Chen Ge [1] - There is strong interest from international investors in Chinese AI technology companies, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [1] - Hu Zhizhe believes that the emergence of trillion-dollar companies in China's AI technology sector is only a matter of time [1]

Group 1 - Major foreign institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, express optimistic expectations for Chinese assets in their 2026 market outlook [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by the end of 2027, while JPMorgan upgrades China's market rating to "overweight" due to reasonable valuations and light international investor positions [1] - Morgan Stanley slightly raises its target for the CSI 300 index to 4840 points by December 2026, and UBS sets a target of 100 points for the MSCI China Index, indicating a potential 14% upside from current levels [1] Group 2 - UBS analyst Meng Lei forecasts that the overall A-share profit growth rate will rise from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by GDP growth, corporate revenue increases, supportive policies, and the "anti-involution" policy [2] - JPMorgan's Liu Mingdi notes that the proportion of companies in the MSCI China Index with upward earnings revisions has risen significantly, indicating improved corporate quality through reduced capital expenditures and increased R&D investments [2] - The technology sector is highlighted as the most promising area for profit growth, with Paris Asset Management's Daniel Morris emphasizing its resilience due to a greater focus on services rather than goods exports [2] Group 3 - A report from Huatai Securities shows that as of December 20, 2025, global investment in Chinese assets through ETFs has seen a net inflow of $83.1 billion, with the technology sector receiving the most inflow at $9.5 billion [3] - Morgan Stanley reports that as of November 2025, foreign long-term funds have net bought approximately $10 billion in A-shares and H-shares, contrasting sharply with the $17 billion outflow in 2024 [3] - The trend indicates a significant inflow of passive foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with active funds expected to increase their allocation to Chinese assets in the near future [3]

瑞银中国总裁及瑞银证券董事长胡知鸷预计，今年香港市场IPO规模有望超过3000亿港元，上市公司数 量料有150至200家。 她认为，中国资产并未进入过热区间，而是飞跃的开始。 胡知鸷预料，2026年MSCI中国指数的盈利增长可能达到14%，甚至更高，主要受互联网平台、高端制 造业和具有全球扩张能力企业的驱动。 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、多家外资机构纷纷发布报告，对 2026 年中国资产表现持积极观点。在企业盈利 | | | | | 持续改善、科技创新突破不断涌现，以及估值吸引力日益凸显的推动下，中国资产 | | | | | 具备了持续上升的坚实基础。 | | | | | 2、马斯克表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 将于 2026 年开始对脑机接口设备进行 | | | | | "大规模生产"。并同步推进流程高度精简、几乎完全自动化的手术方案，最关键 | | | | | 的突破在于，设备中的电极丝将直接穿过硬脑膜，而无需将其切除。 | | | | | 3、AI 算力需求激增与存储芯片价格反弹，推动三星电子与 SK 海力士股价飙升，带 | | | | | 动日韩股市齐创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple foreign institutions have released reports expressing a positive outlook on Chinese assets for 2026, driven by continuous improvement in corporate earnings, breakthroughs in technological innovation, and increasingly attractive valuations [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance and Expectations - Chinese A-shares experienced strong growth in 2020, leading to a return of global capital and an increase in financial market transaction volumes [1] - Several foreign investment banks have raised their market expectations for 2026, with corporate profit improvements expected to support the stock market, projecting earnings growth of 14% and 12% [1] - JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have set target points for the CSI 300 index between 4800 and 5200 [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Government Support - Investors are advised to pay attention to fundamentals such as domestic demand, export performance, and government-supported sectors [4] - The Chinese government continues to provide subsidies in the consumption sector and increase infrastructure and funding investments in new productivity areas, supporting a target economic growth of around 5% [4] - With such fundamental support, investors are encouraged to consider increasing holdings in sectors with significant future growth potential, making stock market gains foreseeable [4] Group 3: M&A Market Outlook - As investor confidence in Chinese assets and long-term growth prospects recovers, the M&A market in China is expected to see another year of growth [4] - Investors are showing renewed confidence in achieving synergies and enhancing the capabilities of target companies amid geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic challenges [4] - This shift in mindset may trigger a wave of strategic transactions aimed at seeking growth and resilience in response to ongoing global challenges [4]

Market News - CPI and PPI data will be released on January 9, 2026, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a PPI year-on-year decline of 1.9% [3] - The 2026 childcare subsidy application will open on January 5, 2026, with over 24 million people having received subsidies in 2025, achieving an 80% issuance rate [4] - The first adjustment of refined oil prices in 2026 will occur on January 6, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively [5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released on January 6, with unemployment rate predictions ranging from 4.5% to 4.7% [6] Sector Events - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will commence on January 6, featuring major tech companies and new exhibitors from China, including Lenovo and Hisense [8] - Honor Power2 will be officially launched on January 5, featuring a 10000mAh battery and MediaTek Dimensity 8500Elite chip, achieving a benchmark score of over 2.4 million [9] Company News - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire 64.69% of Hangzhou Zhongwei's equity through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, with the company specializing in CMP equipment [11] - Meike Home intends to acquire 100% of Wanda's equity to expand into the high-speed interconnect field, with stock resuming trading on January 5, 2026 [12] - ST Asia Pacific has completed its restructuring, with a reference price of 7.05 yuan per share for its stock resumption on January 5, 2026 [13] - Jiaheng Homecare's controlling shareholder will change to Hangzhou Pinpianyi, with a share transfer price of 33.21 yuan per share [15] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 36 stocks will have their lock-up periods expire from January 5 to January 9, 2026, with a total market value exceeding 160 billion yuan [17] - Notable expirations include Fenghuo Electronics with 11,424.9 million shares valued at 139.612 million yuan and Construction Industry with 62,994.3 million shares valued at 1.689 billion yuan [18] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks will be issued from January 5 to January 9, 2026, including Zhixin Co. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Kema Materials on the Beijing Stock Exchange [21] Institutional Outlook - Institutions expect the market to transition from a "structural bull" to an "index bull" in 2026, with a focus on AI applications, humanoid robot mass production, and mergers and acquisitions [24] - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the potential in AI application industries, predicting a positive outlook for the computer sector [25] - Huachuang Securities anticipates accelerated development of domestic AI computing chips due to restrictions on overseas chips [26] - Goldman Sachs notes that overseas investments are increasingly favoring Chinese assets, predicting a 13% average price increase in global stocks in 2026 [29]