记者 辛圆 王青表示，下调政策利率并引导LPR下行，将带动企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下调，降低实体经济融资成本。这是现阶段扩投资、促消费的一个重要发力 点，也有助于缓解计入物价因素后，当前企业和居民实际贷款利率偏高现象，激发企业和居民内生融资需求。 实际上，市场对本次LPR调整已有预期。 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办发布会上宣布降低利率，包括下调政策利率0.1个百分点、降低所有结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点和降低 个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。其中，下调政策利率0.1个百分点即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利 率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。同时，将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对智通财经分析称，此次LPR降息10个基点，充分说明一揽子金融支持政策下货币政策和信贷政策进一步宽松，亦进一 步降低了中长期资金的借贷成本。 他表示，降息政策对于房贷成本有进一步下调的积极作用，亦有助于进一步促进住房消费需求的释放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对戒面新闻表示，LPR报价下调，根本原因是4月 ...

每经记者｜郑步春 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 周一A股上午偏弱震荡，下午走势略转好，收盘各大股指以微涨为主。截至收盘，上证综指微涨0.12点 至3367.58点，其余主要股指涨幅细微，仅北证50显著上涨2.37%。全A总成交额11189亿元，较上周五的 11241亿元略有缩小。 由盘面看，航运港口、化纤、造纸、房地产、环保等板块表现稍强，白酒、矿物制品、工程机械、保 险、银行等板块表现稍弱。 周二央行将公布贷款市场报价利率（LPR），因关税战降温及近期经济数据相对较稳，多数市场人士预 计5月LPR将维持不变，稍后几个月才有望下调。 A股中短期内走势将很大程度上取决于中美后续谈判，投资者目前操作上多半会倾向于保守与观望。预 计在上述重大事项明朗前，A股大概率延续震荡格局，投资者可继续持股观望。 白酒类个股开盘即下跌。据新华社报道，近日印发修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反对浪费条例》，有与 酒相关的文字，具体是：工作餐不得提供高档菜肴，不得提供香烟，不上酒。 其他市场方面，上周五美股三大股指均小涨；周一港股小跌，恒指微跌0.05%，恒生科技指数跌 0.50%。本周二，宁德时代H股将于港交所主板挂牌上市，市场预期较好，近期宁德时 ...

Group 1: Trade Agreement Insights - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US's maximum tariff on China dropping from 145% to 30%[9] - Both countries have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% counter-tariffs for 90 days, marking a shift from "almost embargo" to "tradeable" levels[11] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate inflation concerns in the US and improve market sentiment, potentially boosting US stock performance[10] Group 2: Market Implications - The easing of tariffs is likely to enhance risk appetite in the market, with expectations for improved economic forecasts in Q2 2025[11] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have returned to levels prior to the "equivalent tariffs," suggesting a focus on fundamental market conditions moving forward[11] - The report suggests a structural market strategy, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors potentially providing excess returns[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative impacts of tariffs on Chinese exports may be delayed until Q3 2025, with Q2 expected to shift from a drag to a boost for exports[11] - The necessity for preemptive domestic fiscal policies has decreased due to improved economic expectations[11] - The ongoing trade conflict is anticipated to enter a prolonged "negotiation phase," indicating that optimism should be tempered[18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆窄幅震荡，新季美国大豆种植天气有利和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕横盘震 荡，5月进口大豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支 撑期货盘面底部，整体或维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2920（华东），基差21，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年同期55.92万吨， 同比减少81 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕横盘震荡 （豆粕周报5.12-5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 基本面影响因素概览 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 短期妥协 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期偏淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量低位回升 | | 计维持继续回升， ...

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights the fluctuations in precious metal prices, particularly silver and gold, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. inflation and retail sales data [2][3] - Silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8110 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 0.72%, and trading ranged from a low of 8052 yuan to a high of 8165 yuan [1] - International gold prices rose by 1.99% to 3239.66 USD per ounce, while silver increased by 1.26% to 32.616 USD per ounce, indicating a recovery after initial declines [2] Group 2 - The U.S. April PPI year-on-year was reported at 2.4%, below expectations, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, with a small chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting market expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are causing uncertainty in the market, leading to a cautious outlook on silver futures, with industrial demand being a key factor to monitor [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，油脂受美国生物柴油政策变动而大跌带动和技术性震荡整理，美 豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内豆粕横盘震荡，5月进口大豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低 位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底部，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2960（华东），基差37，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年同期55.92万吨， 同 ...

今年 3 月，一则重磅消息如平地惊雷般在商界炸开 —— 长和集团宣布拟以 228 亿美元的价格，向美国 贝莱德财团出售全球 43 个港口资产。这本就是一笔巨额的商业交易，然而其中最引人注目的，是交易 涉及到巴拿马运河两端的巴尔博亚港和克里斯托瓦尔港。这两个港口，堪称全球航运的 "咽喉要道"， 每年承担着约 6% 的全球贸易量，对于中国与美洲之间的贸易通道而言，更是具有不可替代的重要性。 中国商船每年高达 2.3 万亿美元的货物都要从这里经过，其战略意义不言而喻。 消息一经传出，舆论瞬间沸腾。公众纷纷质疑，在全球局势如此敏感，中美关系复杂多变的当下，长和 集团此举究竟意欲何为？将如此关键的战略港口出售给与美国政府关系密切的贝莱德财团，是否会对中 国的外贸安全与供应链稳定造成严重威胁？一时间，各种猜测和批评甚嚣尘上，长和集团被推到了舆论 的风口浪尖。 面对舆论的质疑和国家监管部门的关注，长和集团起初表现得异常强硬。他们试图用 "纯商业行为" 来 为这笔交易开脱，对众多合理质疑置若罔闻，依旧我行我素地推进交易进程。然而，他们低估了国家维 护战略安全和经济利益的决心。 国家市场监管总局迅速行动，果断出手对该交易进行反 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡。 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等 待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，5月进口大 豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支撑期货盘面底 部，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2990（华东），基差76，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2509 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. Influenced by factors such as the US - China tariff negotiation progress, US soybean planting weather, South American soybean harvest, and domestic soybean imports, it maintains a generally weak and oscillatory pattern [9][10]. - **A2507 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4140 and 4240. Affected by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic soybean cost - performance, it is also subject to the impact of the US - China tariff negotiation and South American soybean harvest [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The US - China tariff negotiation has achieved significant progress, and the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the tariff war and planting weather [15]. - In May, the arrival of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean meal market is in a weak and oscillatory pattern [15]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a weak and oscillatory state [15]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Short - term lower - than - expected arrival of imported soybeans in China, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in US soybean - producing area weather [16]. - **Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported soybeans in May, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans [16]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: The strong oscillation of US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [17]. - **Bearish**: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the planned increase in domestic purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [17]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price is 3000 (East China), basis is 92, showing a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills is 10.12 tons, a 23.26% increase from last week and an 81.9% decrease from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4160, basis is - 16, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 534.91 tons, a 12.7% increase from last week and a 27.79% increase from the same period last year [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [13]. 3.6 Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [34]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans also showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [35]. 3.7 Planting and Harvesting Progress of Major Soybean - Producing Areas - **Argentina (2023/24)**: The sowing and harvesting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing a relatively stable development trend [36]. - **US (2024)**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and there are some differences in different stages [37][38][39][40]. - **Brazil (2024/25)**: The planting and harvesting progress are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the overall progress is relatively smooth [41][42]. - **Argentina (2024/25)**: The planting progress is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and it is advancing steadily [43]. 3.8 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports (Recent Half - Year) - From October 2024 to April 2025, the harvest area, single - yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans have changed to some extent, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also been adjusted [44]. 3.9 Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the soybean meal inventory has returned to a low level [47]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have continued to increase, and the stocking demand has increased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread has narrowed slightly [53]. - The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The prices of pigs and piglets have fluctuated slightly [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased slightly [61].