Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 3, the bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising slightly, and most treasury bond futures closing down. The inter - bank market funds were balanced and loose, and the weighted average interest rates of major repurchase transactions declined. The Sino - US tariff war is a long - term process, and short - term changes are unlikely to significantly affect bond market expectations. Domestic factors such as this month's liquidity, certificate of deposit rates, and government bond supply need to be monitored [3]. - The 5 - month manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range, and the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. In April, government bond issuance helped the growth rate of social financing scale continue to accelerate, and the central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements. After the shock of the suspension of the tariff war was quickly released and the reserve requirement and interest rate cuts were implemented, the funds remained loose. With the central bank's continued use of quantitative tools, the bond market's continuous adjustment momentum remains [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The T2509 contract had a closing price of 108.685, a decline of 0.03%, a trading volume of 96,000, an open interest of 285,750, and a daily decrease of 1,142 positions. The TF2509 contract had a closing price of 105.960, a decline of 0.04%, a trading volume of 79,600, an open interest of 219,680, and a daily increase of 5,684 positions. The TS2509 contract had a closing price of 102.352, a decline of 0.04%, a trading volume of 54,900, an open interest of 171,028, and a daily increase of 5,667 positions. The TL2509 contract had a closing price of 119.45, an increase of 0.03%, a trading volume of 96,300, an open interest of 148,128, and a daily decrease of 780 positions [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - On June 3, the People's Bank of China conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 375.5 billion yuan [3]. 3. Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract was - 0.0741, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The basis of the TF main contract was - 0.0175, also indicating a discount of the spot to the futures, which was bearish. The basis of the T main contract was 0.0230, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish. The basis of the TL main contract was 0.41130, indicating a premium of the spot to the futures, which was bullish [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which was neutral [4]. 5. Market Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all trading above their 20 - day moving averages, and the 20 - day moving averages were all upward, which was bullish [4]. 6. Position Analysis - The TS main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The TF main contract had a net long position with an increase in long positions. The T main contract had a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5].

Summary of Baia Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Baia Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Sanitary products, specifically focusing on women's hygiene products Key Points and Arguments Recovery from Pandemic Impact - Baia Co., Ltd. has restored platform data to pre-pandemic levels through increased expenditure and adjusted marketing strategies, with Douyin leading, followed by Tmall and Pinduoduo [2][3] - The company plans to leverage the 618 shopping festival to eliminate the impact of two rounds of the pandemic and normalize e-commerce operations [3][27] Offline Business Performance - The offline business has been less affected by the pandemic, maintaining stable operations and expanding nationally as planned [5][7] - Seasonal sales fluctuations were noted, with strong performance during the Women's Day and Double Eleven events, while the second and third quarters are expected to be relatively flat [5][6] Inventory Management - The overlap of Women's Day and the 315 public opinion incident affected distributor inventory levels, but overall inventory has gradually returned to normal [5][6] - The company maintains low inventory in new regions to control risks, while the Sichuan-Chongqing region has higher inventory due to faster sales [6][7] Market Competition - The sanitary napkin market is highly competitive, with some brands exiting and new entrants emerging, leading to a revised expectation for overall e-commerce growth [10][11] - Consumer loyalty is strong, making it difficult for new brands to gain traction quickly [10] Product Differentiation - Baia Co., Ltd. emphasizes product differentiation through technical specifications and added value, such as probiotic products and organic cotton lines [11][12] - The company plans to continue iterating existing products and launching new ones annually to meet consumer demand [12][13] Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on offline channel expansion, particularly in new regions, while maintaining a strong online presence [4][8] - The profitability of various channels varies, with Douyin currently being the only loss-making channel, while offline channels are expected to achieve a net profit margin of around 20% [15][22] Regional Performance - The Sichuan-Chongqing region saw a 30% year-on-year growth in Q1, with expectations for high single-digit growth for the year [18] - The company anticipates that the Guangdong region will achieve breakeven in the second half of the year, with continued high growth [17] Future Outlook - The company aims for a 30% annual growth rate, with a revenue target exceeding 4 billion yuan for the year [27] - The 618 shopping festival is seen as a critical period for recovery, with plans to reassess annual targets post-event [27] Challenges and Risks - The ongoing U.S.-China tariff situation may impact raw material costs, but the company has made preparations to mitigate these effects [20] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain challenging, particularly with the entry of new brands and the need for effective marketing strategies [10][25] Conclusion - Baia Co., Ltd. is strategically positioned to recover from pandemic impacts and capitalize on market opportunities through a combination of online and offline strategies, product innovation, and careful inventory management. The company remains optimistic about achieving its growth targets despite competitive pressures and market challenges.

长江期货棉花月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-06-03 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 反弹结束，震荡回落 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 02 供应端分析：新季全球供应仍显宽松 03 需求端分析：下游需求总体尚稳 04 逻辑与展望：震荡回落 目 录 05 02 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 01 5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 5月郑棉大幅反弹后震荡运行，宏观层面，月初中美开始接触直至联合声明发布，中美关税战趋向缓和，市场 情绪有所缓解，期价从低位一路上行，达到月内最大涨幅，5 月 28 日，美国联邦贸易法院裁决阻止了特朗普 对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，不确定性较大。基本面来看，市场前期部分积压订单逐步发运， 有少量订单回流，但棉类产业链传导不明 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has been busy adjusting its tariff policies and has recently halted the export of key technologies to China, particularly in the aviation sector [1][3] - The Trump administration's decision to suspend licenses for the sale of products and technologies to China's COMAC is seen as a strategic move to counter China's rapid advancements in the aviation industry [3][6] - The U.S. aims to maximize its benefits from the trade war, seeking not only negotiations but also leveraging tariffs to protect its domestic industries [6] Group 2 - The U.S. is concerned about the rise of China's aviation industry and has been pressuring to hinder China's progress in developing its own large aircraft [8][11] - The CJ-1000A engine, designed specifically for China's C919 aircraft, boasts significant advantages in terms of size, fuel efficiency, and performance compared to the current LEAP-1C engine [10][11] - The U.S. government is attempting to protect Boeing, which has been struggling since the 737 MAX crisis, by using export restrictions as a means to support the company [11][13] Group 3 - The U.S. is using the suspension of aviation engine technology exports as leverage in negotiations regarding rare earth materials, which are crucial for its military and high-tech industries [15][18] - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, supplying approximately 70% of the U.S.'s needs, which is critical for advanced military equipment [18][20] - The recent U.S. actions may inadvertently accelerate China's innovation in aviation technology, particularly with the impending production of the CJ-1000A engine [20]

自特朗普上台以来，他就迫不及待地采取了关税手段，针对我国发起经济攻势。自2月份起，美国接连三个月加大对我国的 关税力度，尤其是到了4月，关税的压力变得更加沉重。显然，特朗普急于阻止我国日益增长的经济势头，深怕美方被甩得 越来越远。于是，他采取了极端手段，歇斯底里地将矛头指向我国，妄图制止我国的发展。然而面对美国的咄咄逼人，我国 始终表现得沉着冷静。 每当美方加大税率的同时，我国都能以同样的方式做出回应，而其他国家往往无法做到这一点。美国在加税后很快就感受到 压力，最终不得不开始妥协。最近的一次中美对话再次证明，美方在这场博弈中输了，甚至美国官员万斯公开表示，美国霸 权时代已经宣告终结。 回顾过去，曾经中美关系在某些时期还是友好相处的，那时候我国的发展速度较慢，美方还曾主动伸出援手，助力我国走向 更好的未来。无疑，那段日子是双方关系中最为和谐的一段，但这一美好时光如今已不复存在。 特朗普在首次担任总统时，将矛头直指我国，专注于经济领域的对抗。这一行为迫使我国不得不做出反击，并正式拉开了中 美对抗的序幕。从2018年至今，美国始终在各个领域与我国针锋相对，中美之间的对抗越来越加剧，显然这种局面是美国自 己的所作所 ...

在全球经济与政治的大舞台上，局势常常风云变幻，波澜壮阔。而其中一场极为引人注目的戏剧，莫过 于中美之间的关税战。这并非一场普通的贸易摩擦，而是如同一场紧张激烈的战争，波及的范围广泛、 影响深远，世界各国无不对此高度关注。特别是在这场关税战的背后，不仅能看到全球贸易格局的变 化，还能感受到各国纷纷重新审视自己与美国关系的复杂局面。尤其是欧洲国家的态度变化，更是耐人 寻味。 中美关税战：一场精彩的反击战 中国在关税战中的亮眼表现无疑为其他国家提供了有益的借鉴，尤其是欧洲国家纷纷效仿中国的强硬策 略，敢于与美国展开对抗。看到中国的成功，欧洲国家开始一一表态，显然不再对美国的关税威胁低 头。欧盟作为一个经济大国，在对美国的关税谈判中采取了坚决的态度，明确表示，如果美国不降税， 欧盟将进行报复。 欧盟的态度背后有着强大的底气。在钢铁、铝和汽车等领域，美国对欧盟征收了25%的进口关税，几乎 对其他所有商品征收10%的"基准关税"，并且准备进一步加征20%的"对等关税"，这让欧盟遭受了重大 损失。面对美国的不断施压，欧盟决定勇敢反击。 然而，关税战并没有持续太久。美国消费者发现，原本物美价廉的中国商品变得昂贵，生活成本随之 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is a long-term battle rather than a single event, and understanding the economic dynamics of both countries is crucial for strategic planning [1][2][4] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing the underlying factors that influence long-term economic growth in both the U.S. and China, rather than focusing solely on short-term fluctuations [4][5] - It critiques the "manic-depressive" analysis of the U.S. economy, which oscillates between exaggerated optimism and pessimism, suggesting that such views misrepresent the actual economic conditions [3][5][6] Group 2 - The U.S. financial markets have shown volatility since the announcement of tariffs, but these fluctuations are within the normal economic cycle range, indicating no immediate crisis [34] - The article discusses the performance of the U.S. stock market, noting that significant declines have occurred but are less severe than in previous economic downturns, suggesting stability in the long-term outlook [19][24][27] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a notable drop following the tariff announcement but rebounded after strategic concessions from the Trump administration, reflecting the complex interplay between policy decisions and market reactions [28][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2880 - 2940. The domestic soybean meal may show a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation due to factors such as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate within the range of 4160 - 4260. The domestic soybean is affected by the subsequent China - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans, and may show a short - term oscillation pattern [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good weather for US soybean planting recently led to a short - term decline after the US soybean market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybeans are affected by the implementation of the China - US tariff war and have returned to an oscillation pattern, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal decreased after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow clearance of imported soybeans at customs [14]. - Low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [14]. - Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 74, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The number of long positions of the main contract increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The number of short positions of the main contract increased, and the funds flowed in [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-21 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，新季美国大豆种植天气有利和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回 升，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位支撑期货盘面底部， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-49，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年 ...