Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted optimism for the A-share market, predicting a significant influx of global capital and a bull market ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis Framework - Li Chao emphasized a four-tier analytical framework for understanding China's economy, which includes US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework suggests that maintaining economic growth is contingent upon addressing the first three layers, with a focus on leveraging export advantages to sustain growth [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus is on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, specifically technology stocks and dividend stocks [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price future cash flows favorably in a low-interest environment [4] - Dividend stocks are positioned as attractive alternatives in a low-yield bond market, providing stability and potential for value re-evaluation [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Li Chao expressed a positive outlook for the capital market in 2026, driven by liquidity and structural opportunities, urging investors to adopt an optimistic stance [5]

表面上中美斗得很凶，实际上是在一起牵制俄欧联盟，给自己争取发展时间。你可能会问，中美是怎么 默契合作的？为什么俄欧联盟没能成型呢？ 很多人对中美关系存在认知误区。单线叙事让人们形成两种极端看法：要么认为中美最终会全面开战， 要么幻想两国联手可以主宰世界。但现实比这些想法复杂得多。中美隔着浩瀚太平洋，合作成本高、效 率低。物流链条长，资源供给难以互补。美国虽然油气充足，但铁矿、钴矿等工业关键矿产依然大量依 赖进口，加上跨洋运输的成本和贸易壁垒，所谓中美联手1+1=2的效果其实微乎其微。 大家好，我是小格！最近不少人都在热议中美博弈，有的说新冷战要来了，有的在猜谁会赢，但其实很 多人没看清背后的逻辑。 我研究国际格局多年发现，中美的竞争并不是零和游戏，倒更像是一种大国之间的默契平衡。核心很简 单，中美真正担心的不是彼此，而是俄罗斯和欧洲联合起来。两者地理相邻，资源互补，高科技能力 强，如果真结盟，不论是美元霸权还是全球产业链，中美都会被迫退到边缘。 完全独立的大陆级联盟，内部贸易可绕开美元，美国的大西洋影响力会直接受冲击，中美在全球价值链 中的地位将被边缘化，这就是为什么俄欧联盟比中美冲突更危险。 更关键的是，大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.9% in the penultimate week of November, marking the largest weekly decline of the year, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the bull market [1]. Market Phases - The bull market typically progresses through three phases: 1. **Policy Bottom**: Characterized by the government easing monetary policy and introducing favorable measures, despite poor economic data and corporate earnings. This phase sees high volatility as the market reacts to policy changes without fundamental support [2]. 2. **Fundamental Bottom**: In this phase, the effects of policies begin to positively impact the real economy, leading to improved corporate earnings and a simultaneous rise in valuations, resulting in a strong upward market trend [2]. 3. **Sentiment Top**: This phase occurs when economic growth slows, corporate earnings stagnate, and policies may tighten, yet market enthusiasm drives valuations to bubble levels [2]. Current Market Stage - The current market is likely at the end of the first phase and the beginning of the second phase, indicated by increasing activity in M1 and a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI, which are positive signals. However, the improvement in the real economy is not yet comprehensive, with only "point-like" improvements observed in certain sectors like technology, while traditional industries and real estate remain weak [3]. - The upward potential in the second phase is significant, and despite the index reaching 3,800 points, the overall market performance this year has been strong, with positive expectations for the next year [3]. Investment Opportunities - The market has shown significant divergence this year, with sectors related to technology and external demand performing well, while those tied to consumption and domestic demand have lagged. This disparity in investment returns highlights the importance of sector selection [3]. - Investors are encouraged to either continuously learn and adapt to market changes or to focus on their areas of expertise, as both strategies can yield substantial returns over time [3][4].

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of a multi-layered decision-making framework for understanding China's economic landscape, emphasizing that economic growth is now the fourth priority in a four-tiered model [1][3][5]. Group 1: Four-Tier Decision Framework - The four tiers of the decision-making framework are: US-China relations (determining risk appetite), social stability (defining policy bottom line), structural transformation (guiding industry direction), and economic growth (setting bottom line speed) [3][5]. - Investors are cautioned against relying solely on GDP as a predictive model, as it has become ineffective [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The focus for 2026 will be on maintaining necessary economic growth during structural transformation, with exports being a key driver due to China's competitive advantage [3][5][6]. - The market is expected to experience a liquidity-driven bull market starting in 2026, following a three-year delay [3][7]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Two main categories benefiting from declining interest rates are technology and dividend stocks, which appeal to different risk appetites [3][7]. - The strategy for asset allocation should involve dynamic rebalancing between technology and dividend stocks based on the state of US-China relations [3][7].

美国这回，是铁了心要"吃定"欧盟了。 美国向欧盟提条件 据观察者网报道，美欧高层日前在布鲁塞尔，针对贸易问题举行了一场闭门会议，美国对欧洲施加的钢铝关税，是欧方迫切想要解决的难题，而中国议题则 成为了欧方讨好美国的筹码。 结果，欧方还在商量怎么配合美国，应对中国这个"共同的敌人"，美方就把话给挑明了，直言欧盟哪怕跟美国合作对付中国，也不代表美方会在关税问题上 放过欧盟。 相反，美方提出的条件，是要求欧盟对美企放宽数字规则，如果能做到这一点，美国就会考虑对欧盟"折中"钢铝关税，也就是从50%变为25%，至于剩下这 些，自然是留着继续提更多的条件。 这也印证了中方此前说的话，面对美国这个霸权国家，妥协是换不来尊重的。在特朗普政府眼里，不敢违背美国号令，一心只想破财免灾的欧盟，不正是霸 权大棒最有效的目标吗? 尤其是在那些亲美政客的推动下，嘴上说着要"上桌吃饭"的欧盟，正努力让自己，变成一只"剪了爪子的小猫"。 所有人都知道，钢铁关税跟数字规则没有丁点关系，美方就是在进行"恐吓外交"，用关税作为胁迫欧盟的手段，但欧盟低头了。 也就是说，欧盟不止是要向美国缴纳"保护费"，为了避免让美国感受到威胁，还要自我限制自身人工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In 2026, the non-ferrous metal market will continue to trade on the two themes of "macro-policy disturbances" and "mine supply security." The prices of different metals will significantly diverge based on their supply-demand fundamentals. It is advisable to focus on structural opportunities, such as the long-term allocation value of copper, aluminum, and tin, the internal and external arbitrage window in the zinc market, and the banded rebound opportunities of cobalt, nickel, and other varieties due to policy or cost support. The strength ranking of major global non-ferrous metals in 2026 is: tin > copper > aluminum > cobalt > zinc > nickel > lithium > lead [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry Background: Game, Deviation, and Resource Security - **Geopolitical Aspect**: Sino-US game remains a long-term core variable affecting global trade and the basic metal market. Although there was a period of relaxation since October this year, the long-term structural competition pattern remains unchanged, bringing continuous uncertainty to the market [2]. - **Economic Deviation**: The weak global manufacturing PMI data deviates from the strong performance of some basic metal prices. The OECD predicts that China's GDP growth rate will drop from 4.7% this year to 4.4% next year, confirming the weak real economy [2]. - **Monetary Environment**: The market highly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy path. Overall, global liquidity will remain relatively loose in the future. The long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit will provide systematic support for commodity prices [4]. - **Resource Dependence Crisis**: China has a very high external dependence on non-ferrous metal minerals. Any supply disturbances in overseas mines will be magnified and quickly transmitted to the price end [6]. - **Low Inventory Effect**: Globally, the exchange inventories of most basic metals are at historically low levels, which weakens the market's buffer capacity against sudden supply-demand changes and increases price volatility [6]. 2. Outlook for the Non-Ferrous Metal Market in 2026: Differentiation and Structural Opportunities 2.1 Copper - **Core Logic**: Tight mine supply is the dominant contradiction, and financial attributes determine price elasticity [9]. - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the spot TC price index has been low or even negative for nearly 8 - 9 months. Global mine disturbances are frequent, and the supply-demand shortage of copper concentrate is expected to be about 500,000 tons in 2026 [9]. - **Demand Side**: New energy is the core driving force. In 2026, the new energy sector is expected to bring 213,000 tons and 141,000 tons of copper consumption increments to the Chinese and overseas markets respectively [9]. - **Inventory and Balance**: Although the global refined copper inventory as of November 6 is at a five-year high, the fundamental shortage at the mine end will push the price center upward. The current copper price close to 90,000 yuan/ton is expected to break through the 90,000 mark in 2026 [9]. 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Logic**: The "ceiling" of production capacity formed by China's supply-side reform and the new production capacity in Indonesia are the main contradictions, and low inventory amplifies price volatility [12]. - **Supply Side**: China's production capacity has reached the ceiling, and the key variable next year is the progress of Indonesia's new production capacity of about 600,000 tons and power supply. Overseas disturbances intensify the tightness. The global electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.15 million tons [12]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption growth is concentrated in the new energy field, and the consumption growth rate of the transportation sector in 2026 is expected to be 5% [12]. - **Inventory and Balance**: The global inventory is about 1.49 million tons, and the domestic inventory is less than 800,000 tons. A supply gap of 180,000 tons is expected in 2026, maintaining a tight balance [12]. - **Attribute Evolution**: The strategic attribute of aluminum is becoming increasingly prominent, enhancing its financial attribute and increasing its linkage with copper [12]. 2.3 Lead & Zinc - **Zinc**: The core feature is the serious divergence of internal and external market inventories, which creates a historical window for internal and external arbitrage. The growth rate of global zinc concentrate is expected to fall below 4% in 2026. China's zinc ingot is expected to have a surplus of 1.15 million tons in 2026, while overseas may reverse the shortage situation [13]. - **Lead**: It has entered an "internal circulation" cycle dominated by recycled lead, with a proportion of over 50%. The domestic market maintains a tight balance, while overseas may have a slight surplus. China's production is expected to slightly increase from 6.92 million tons to 6.95 million tons in 2026 [14]. 2.4 Nickel & Cobalt - **Nickel**: The primary nickel market remains in surplus, and the supply-demand difference in 2026 is expected to be 46,000 tons. The sufficient supply of nickel pig iron and MHP continues to suppress the nickel price. The future core variables are Indonesia's industrial policies and cost competition among different process routes [17]. - **Cobalt**: The floating quota policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the biggest variable. This mechanism has become an "automatic stabilizer" for the price, giving the cobalt price strong elasticity [17]. 2.5 Tin & Lithium - **Tin**: The core logic is the rigid supply constraint versus the structural growth of demand. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is less than expected, and the grade of overseas tin mines is declining. The global supply gap in 2026 is expected to be 730,000 tons, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous strengthening of the tin price for three years [19]. - **Lithium**: The global supply surplus pattern continues. The concentrated release of medium and low-grade lithium resource production capacity and the maturity of technologies such as lithium extraction from salt lakes lead to a downward shift in the cost center. The lithium price still faces downward pressure in the medium and long term [19]. 3. Summary - **Supply-Driven First Echelon**: Tin, copper, and aluminum have the strongest foundation for a structural bull market [21]. - **Policy/Structural Disturbance Second Echelon**: Cobalt and zinc have significant banded and structural opportunities [21]. - **Surplus Suppression Type**: Nickel, lithium, and lead are under overall pressure, mainly based on the logic of rebound and cost support [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent appreciation of the RMB is a result of a temporary reconciliation between China and the US, which may lead to a shift in economic focus from external demand to internal demand [4][11][31] - The potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the acceleration of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are also significant implications of this reconciliation [5][31] - The market may experience short-term chaos due to the unwinding of leveraged hedge positions as trading logic changes, leading to unexpected market volatility [12][14][65] Group 2 - The long-standing macroeconomic issues have primarily revolved around the US-China rivalry, with the US using aggressive interest rate hikes to draw capital back to the US, impacting global markets [17][18][21] - The Chinese strategy of maintaining low interest rates has been aimed at protecting the banking system, stabilizing prices, and enhancing export competitiveness [28][29] - The shift towards internal demand will likely be supported by the repatriation of cross-border capital, especially as the Federal Reserve has more room to cut rates [36][37] Group 3 - The long-term effects include a potential recovery in domestic prices and demand, as well as a rotation in the stock market between internal demand and technology sectors [33][41] - The positions of Europe and Japan in the global market are expected to decline further, as their industries have been struggling in recent years [43][44] - The bond market may face challenges, with the possibility of a bear market if the central bank does not inject liquidity [46][47] Group 4 - The dynamics of gold and US Treasury bonds may reverse, influenced by central bank actions regarding gold purchases and the overall market sentiment [47][54] - The correlation between gold, Bitcoin, and US Treasuries may decrease as hedge positions are unwound, especially if the geopolitical tensions ease [51][53] - The conclusion emphasizes that while the US-China rivalry may have reached a temporary pause, it remains a long-term issue, and China must focus on strengthening its own economic position [56][61]

Core Insights - The current era is characterized by the dual challenges of US-China competition and technological advancements, necessitating a focus on technological self-reliance and development as the strategic foundation for companies to build new productive capabilities [2][4] - Companies aiming for long-term success and respect must integrate innovation, talent respect, and responsibility deeply [2][4] Group 1: Foreign Trade and Investment Landscape - The US-China trade friction continues to escalate, creating significant pressure on foreign trade enterprises, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries and supply chain stability [3][4] - Market diversification has shown notable success, with deepening trade cooperation between China and regions such as ASEAN, Europe, and Africa, making emerging markets new growth points [3][4] - Exports of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium batteries are rapidly increasing, indicating a trend towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing in China [3][4] Group 2: Policy Support and Strategic Development - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing robust support for enterprises [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to pursue innovation-driven growth, optimize trade structures, and enhance competitiveness through increased R&D investment and brand cultivation [4][5] - By mid-2025, China aims to have 10.85 million standard racks in operational computing centers, establishing a comprehensive national computing network framework [4][5] Group 3: Innovation and Responsibility - Respected enterprises must achieve collaborative development across various dimensions, focusing on balanced growth and systemic capabilities [5][6] - Emphasis on human capital and industry responsibility is crucial, with a call for the establishment of systematic inheritance mechanisms in family businesses [6] - The integration of AI and the establishment of industry-academia-research alliances are highlighted as key directions for innovation development [6]

Group 1 - The ongoing competition between the US and China resembles a boxing match, with both sides taking aggressive actions against each other, particularly in the high-tech sector [1] - The US has implemented policies to surround Chinese high-tech companies, prompting reactions from countries like the Netherlands, which attempted to acquire companies with significant operations in China [1] - China's countermeasures include strict controls on rare earth elements and lithium batteries, which are crucial for global high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - The US is facing internal challenges, with officials vocally discussing the potential expulsion of China from the SWIFT system, a move that could severely disrupt international banking and trade [2] - If China were to be excluded from SWIFT, it would likely lead to increased use of CIPS (China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) for international trade, although CIPS is not as widely adopted as SWIFT [2] - China's GDP is projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, and its manufacturing sector holds a critical position globally, which could influence trade dynamics if SWIFT is used against it [2] Group 3 - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan for international transactions, such as in Australian iron ore trades, could undermine the dollar's dominance if it extends to oil, grain, and other commodities [4] - A shift towards yuan-based transactions could lead to decreased demand for US Treasury bonds, negatively impacting the US economy [4] - The current instability of the dollar raises concerns about the potential consequences of extreme measures taken by the US against China [4] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China rivalry is characterized by a mutual reluctance to fully decouple, as both sides recognize the potential for significant losses [5] - China's resources, including rare earths, lithium batteries, and payment systems, provide it with leverage in this geopolitical struggle [5] - The extreme measures taken by the US could inadvertently accelerate China's self-reliance and economic independence [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and the leaders of Central Asian countries highlights the importance of critical minerals, particularly rare earth elements, in the geopolitical landscape, while China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's upcoming visit to Central Asia signifies China's commitment to strengthening ties with these nations [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S.-Central Asia Relations - The recent meeting of Central Asian leaders with Trump indicates U.S. interest in gaining support from these countries on rare earth issues, which may complicate their relationship with China [5][6]. - Central Asian countries are likely to adopt a neutral stance, similar to ASEAN nations, avoiding taking sides between the U.S. and China, given their geographical proximity and existing ties with China [6][7]. Group 2: China-Central Asia Relations - Wang Yi's visit to Central Asia is seen as timely and necessary, reinforcing the importance of these countries as neighbors and partners for China [3][4]. - China has established a close relationship with Central Asian countries, focusing on economic cooperation, trade, and investment, particularly in infrastructure and clean energy [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Cooperation and Opportunities - Central Asia is viewed as a new emerging economic area for China, with significant potential for trade and investment, especially in sectors like renewable energy, digital economy, and agriculture [14][16]. - The region's rich mineral resources, particularly rare earth elements, present opportunities for China to leverage its processing capabilities, despite the U.S. seeking to establish its influence [5][16]. Group 4: Strategic and Security Considerations - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization plays a crucial role in regional security, with China being a key player, which enhances its influence in Central Asia [9][10]. - Strengthening ties with Central Asia is essential for China to maintain regional stability and counterbalance U.S. influence [18]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The upcoming discussions during Wang Yi's visit are expected to cover various topics, including trade, regional security, and climate change, aiming to deepen cooperation between China and Central Asian nations [12][15]. - Central Asia is anticipated to become a new growth point for China's foreign relations, especially following the recent China-ASEAN summit [12][14].