Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a strong rebound, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology Index and the biopharmaceutical sector, driven by long-term economic transformation and short-term liquidity improvements [3][4]. Group 1: Market Structure Changes - Over the past decade, the Hong Kong market has shifted from being dominated by financial and real estate sectors to a focus on technology companies, aligning with China's economic structural upgrades [3][4]. - The introduction of various institutional innovations has attracted more unique and high-quality companies to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - Improved liquidity is identified as the most direct driving force, with a significant recovery in market conditions since last year, leading to a narrowing of the valuation gap between Hong Kong and A-share markets [4]. - Many companies are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with major blue-chip companies achieving annual shareholder yields of 5% to 10% through dividends and buybacks, reflecting a recognition of long-term value [4]. - The surge in the technology and biopharmaceutical sectors is closely linked to collaborations and acquisitions by international pharmaceutical companies with Chinese firms, supported by China's strong new drug pipeline [4][5]. Group 3: Market Resilience and Future Outlook - The risk of delisting for Chinese companies in the U.S. has pressured the market, but Hong Kong has successfully attracted many of these companies for secondary or dual listings, alleviating concerns and drawing international investment [5]. - The rise of the Hang Seng Technology and biopharmaceutical sectors is seen as a result of market structure optimization and a renewed prosperity in China's capital markets, indicating the start of a new development cycle [6].

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the macro - financial situation, including stocks, bonds, and various commodity sectors, on October 23, 2025, considering factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [2]. 1. Macro - financial Core View - Sino - US game persists in the short - term, global risk appetite cools, domestic economic growth accelerates, and policy support increases. Market trading focuses on domestic stimulus policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2]. Asset Recommendations - **Stocks**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Commodities** - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious waiting [2]. 2. Stock Index Market Performance - Domestic stocks decline slightly due to the drag of precious metals, base metals, and battery sectors [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - Domestic economic growth accelerates, Sino - US game affects risk preference, and increased policy support boosts risk preference. Market trading focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward drive weakening [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term cautious long [3]. 3. Precious Metals Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. Shanghai gold futures dropped 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and spot gold fell 0.73% to $4093.77 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 0.04% to 11331 yuan/kg [3]. Trend Analysis - Short - term high - level correction, long - term upward pattern unchanged [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term: Reduce long positions and wait; long - term: Buy on dips [3]. 4. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume [4]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - level factors cause market divergence. Real demand is weak but improving marginally, with inventory decreasing and apparent consumption rising. Supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits [4]. - **Trend Judgment**: No trending market, limited upside and downside in the short - term [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded [5][6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Iron water output is expected to decline further. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126000 tons this week, and arrivals decreased by 526400 tons. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines narrowed [6]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound thinking [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Alloy demand decreased due to lower steel output. Silicon manganese production capacity utilization increased slightly. Silicon iron prices and raw material prices were stable [7]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound [7]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai copper was strong. US copper inventory is at a historical high, and an Indonesian mine's suspension supports prices [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The suspension is temporary, and next year is a year of high copper supply growth. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, supported by the overseas market [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: An overseas smelter's accident affected a small amount of capacity. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are poor, but market expectations are neutral - bullish. London aluminum inventory decreased [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term [10]. Tin - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by Indonesian policies and Myanmar's production. Demand is weak in traditional industries and affected by pre - installed demand in the photovoltaic industry. High prices suppress demand, and inventory decreased this week [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.63% to 76740 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply and demand both increased, with strong seasonal demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish shock, pay attention to resistance levels [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.06% to 8500 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Production reached a new high, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces pressure from warehouse receipts [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound, pay attention to cost support [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.55% to 50235 yuan/ton, with decreased positions. Warehouse receipts increased [13]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is low, and wait for the implementation of state - reserve news [13][14]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to spot price support [14]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: US sanctions on Russian oil companies and EIA inventory data led to a significant rebound in oil prices [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Long - term downward expectation remains [15]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil price rebound drove asphalt prices up, but the basis is low, and trading volume is light. Factory inventory pressure persists, and social inventory is being depleted in East China [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the rebound space of crude oil, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [15]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound and processing fee repair demand are expected to lead to a range - bound adjustment. PXN spread rebounded slightly [16]. - **Trend Judgment**: Tight - balance in October, likely to follow the energy - chemical sector to rebound slightly and then stabilize [16]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound drove PTA up, but demand is low, processing fee is low, and inventory is accumulating. Basis is negative, and short - selling positions are increasing [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, limited follow - up to crude oil [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Price is at a low level, port inventory increased, and demand is weak. Oil price rebound drove a slight increase in futures prices [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Likely to be weak again [17]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Followed the polyester sector and oil prices to rebound slightly [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Weak - shock pattern, follow the polyester sector and consider shorting on rallies [17]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: Domestic methanol prices are mixed, and inventory increased. Supply decreased in the short - term, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand structure [19]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound in the short - term [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: Market prices are range - bound, and inventory decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Crude oil price recovery improved market sentiment, but prices are still weak [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand [20]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Prices are adjusted, with some regional increases. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is differentiated, and the overall demand support is limited [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Market is under pressure [20]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Prices are stable. The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota has limited impact on urea prices [21]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand from compound fertilizers is ending, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking [21]. - **Trend Judgment**: May rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is a risk of decline later [21]. 7. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose 0.12% to 1049.75 on the overnight market [22]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentine weather is good. Sino - US soybean trade is the key factor for the future [22]. - **Trend Judgment**: Narrow - range shock, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a phenomenon of urging delivery. Mills are in loss, and the willingness to support prices is strong. There is a supply gap risk before the South American new soybean harvest [22][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply is tight due to low operating rate, and it follows soybean meal's trend [23]. - **Trend Judgment**: Soybean meal may stabilize after an oversold decline [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term prices may be dragged down by palm oil. It is in the peak season, but trading is unchanged. The price difference between soybean and palm oil provides consumption expectations [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the supply of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil, inventory reduction supports the basis [23]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybean oil decline may drag down palm oil futures. Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and domestic inventory increased [24]. - **Trend Judgment**: MPOC expects prices to be stable above 4400 ringgit/ton for the rest of 2025 [24]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn prices are strong, and new - season corn is being listed. Demand is positive, and farmers may be reluctant to sell [24]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: Breeding profits are in loss, and the supply peak has not arrived. Pig prices rebounded slightly, and the sentiment of secondary fattening is cautious [25]. - **Trend Judgment**: Difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice, but the risk of extreme decline is low [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The weakness of polyolefins was due to the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China-US game, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices fluctuated passively with the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline speed might slow down [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6883, 6917, and 6952 respectively, with changes of 4, -4, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.06%, and 0.00%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6583, 6627, and 6647, with changes of 18, 9, and -3 and percentage changes of 0.27%, 0.14%, and -0.05% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 286298, 25219, and 168, and the open interests were 561965, 63064, and 850, with changes of -135, 1569, and 20. For PP, the trading volumes were 318981, 27402, and 831, and the open interests were 649100, 122304, and 4736, with changes of -5749, 2797, and 215 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL's 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were -34, -35, and 69, compared with previous values of -42, -31, and 73. For PP, the current spreads were -44, -20, and 64, compared with previous values of -53, -32, and 85 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2270 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 522 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450, 6850 - 7150, and 7100 - 7500. For PP, the price ranges were 6450 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6450 - 6600 [2] News - On Tuesday (October 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.82 per barrel, up $0.30 or 0.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.99 - $58.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.32 per barrel, up $0.31 or 0.51%, with a trading range of $60.35 - $62.09 [2]

Group 1 - China's goods trade import and export increased by 4% year-on-year in the first three quarters, despite the challenges posed by the US tariff war [1] - Exports have shown continuous growth for eight months, with a notable increase of 8% in September, indicating a steady upward trend [1] - The significant increase in foreign trade coincided with a sharp decline in exports to the US, which fell by 33% in August and 27% in September, demonstrating a diversification away from reliance on a single market [1] Group 2 - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8%, which is higher than most major economies [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% in the first three quarters, with a 1.0% increase in September, indicating increased economic activity [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 11.9% in the first three quarters, contributing over 30% to overall export growth, reflecting an optimization in export product structure [2] Group 3 - China's trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative accounted for over 51% of total trade in the first three quarters, highlighting the strategic importance of this initiative amid US-China tensions [2] - The ongoing 20th Central Committee meeting is focused on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the long-term vision for national economic and social development [3]

中国商务部发布公告，对韩华海洋旗下5家美国子公司实施反制措施，禁止中国境内组织和个人与其进行任何交易合作。 韩华海洋股价开盘即跌，收盘时暴跌5.8%，近2万亿韩元市值蒸发。 韩国政府紧急启动中韩经贸沟通渠道，试图"最大限度降低韩企损失"。 01 制裁缘由，韩企为何成为目标 这场风暴源于2025年3月的一封信函。 韩华海洋美国子公司致函美国贸易代表办公室，表示"强烈支持"对中国海事、物流和造船业的301调查，并提供财务 数据和政策建议。 这封信成为美国打压中国造船业的"弹药"。 韩华海洋近年来在美国布局深远，不仅花费1亿美元收购美国费城造船厂，还承接美海军维修业务，深度参与美 国"让美国造船业再次伟大"（MASGA）计划。 韩国政府也表现出明显倾向。 2025年8月，韩国总统李在明亲赴费城造船厂参加船舶命名仪式，高呼"美韩造船双赢"，并承诺设立1500亿美元的韩美造船合 作基金。 中国选择制裁韩华海洋美国子公司而非韩国本土业务，体现了精准打击的策略。 中国商务部公告指出，这些公司"积极配合美国对华301调查"，是"美国打 压中国船舶和造船业的事实帮凶"。 02 供应链依赖，韩国造船业的致命软肋 制裁令公布后，韩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data indicates a structural change in credit, with signs of monetary activation emerging, but the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be solidified [4]. Financial Data Analysis - In September, new credit decreased year-on-year, but M1 growth rebounded significantly to 7.2%, the highest since March 2021. The gap between M2 and M1 growth narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, the lowest since January 2021, indicating increased fund activity [4]. - Social financing growth slightly declined to 8.7%, with government bond financing decreasing by 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the challenges and adjustments in policy during the economic recovery process [4]. Export and Fiscal Policy - Export faces downward pressure due to increasing global trade barriers, necessitating effective domestic policy responses. From January to September, net government bond financing reached 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The remaining quota for the fourth quarter is approximately 3.2 trillion yuan, averaging 1.1 trillion yuan per month, which is lower than the previous three quarters [4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - With the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, the pressure from the China-U.S. interest rate differential has eased, providing more autonomy for domestic policy. There is a general expectation of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions before the end of the year [5]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the easing of loan disturbances from "debt reduction" are expected to improve medium- and long-term corporate loans [5]. Commodity Market Insights - Domestic industrial products are currently underperforming compared to overseas markets, partly due to weak real estate demand, indicating that the internal recovery of the economy is not yet solid [6]. - The future economic trajectory will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and changes in the external environment, particularly the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [6]. Strategic Planning and Economic Goals - The upcoming 20th National Congress will set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan. If unexpected signals are released regarding technological independence and expanding domestic demand, it could boost market sentiment [7]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) aims for an average economic growth target of 4.6%-4.8% and focuses on enhancing new productive forces, upgrading traditional industries, and promoting strategic emerging industries [7]. Trade and Pricing Dynamics - The escalation of U.S.-China tensions will directly impact the prices of commodities highly dependent on foreign trade. The market may price in the negative effects of a slowdown in global economic growth due to heightened U.S.-China confrontations [8]. - Given that most industrial product prices are currently at low levels, the market is likely to favor pricing in the impacts of resource protectionism over the negative effects of economic slowdown [8]. Timeline of Key Events - October 20-23: The Fourth Plenary Session will set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially boosting market sentiment if policies exceed expectations [9]. - Late October: The APEC meeting will influence global trade chain confidence based on the outcomes of U.S.-China discussions [9]. - November 1: The deadline for U.S. tariffs will affect sensitive commodities such as precious metals, copper, and protein meal [9].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continues its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.26%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.76%, indicating a broad market rally with 1,315 stocks rising and 883 falling [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of HKD 1.171 billion on a single day, signaling renewed buying interest after a brief outflow [4] Stock Performance - The most favored stocks included Pop Mart, Xiaomi Group-W, and Hua Hong Semiconductor, which saw net purchases of HKD 1.121 billion, HKD 0.481 billion, and HKD 0.441 billion, respectively [4] - Conversely, the iShares Asia 50 ETF, Alibaba-W, and Innovent Biologics experienced varying degrees of net selling, with net sales of HKD 1.102 billion, HKD 4.3 billion, and HKD 0.78 billion, respectively [5] Future Outlook - According to Guotai Junan, historical data suggests that minor pullbacks in the Hong Kong market often occur after profit-taking following market rallies, with the Hang Seng Index typically declining by an average of 7% over 11 trading days [6] - The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations do not alter the medium-term positive trend, with the technology sector remaining the main investment focus amid an upward industrial cycle and increased capital inflow [6] - Guoyuan International highlights that the primary external uncertainty remains the US-China rivalry, which could impact investor sentiment and lead to short-term market volatility, but there is a significant likelihood that the Hang Seng Index will return to an upward trajectory [6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.65%, returning above 26,000 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.76%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.26% [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly increased, with NetEase rising over 2%, Alibaba and Kuaishou nearly 2%, while Xiaomi fell over 1% [2][3]. - Apple suppliers' stocks surged following Apple's record high stock price, with GoerTek rising nearly 6% [2][6]. Semiconductor and Chip Sector - Semiconductor and chip stocks continued to rise, with companies like Beike Micro and Horizon Robotics increasing over 4% [2][6]. Insurance Sector - Insurance stocks collectively rose, with China Life increasing over 6% and other major insurers like New China Life and Ping An also seeing gains [8][9]. Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks saw a boost, with BYD Electronics and CATL both rising over 3% [10][11]. Wind Power Sector - Wind power stocks were active, with companies like Dongfang Electric and Goldwind Technology showing increases [12][13]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks experienced a pullback, with China Silver Group dropping over 6% and other gold companies following suit [14][15]. New Listings - Chinese e-commerce SaaS ERP provider Jushuitan debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, initially surging over 28% and closing up 23.86% [16][20]. Logistics Sector - Aneng Logistics saw a strong rebound, with its stock price rising nearly 18% during the day [21][24].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 3900 points, with the CSI A500 ETF (159338) increasing by over 1.6% and experiencing a net inflow of over 2.1 billion yuan in the past 20 days [1] - Institutions indicate that the US-China rivalry is suppressing market risk appetite, and risk-averse behavior may need to wait for uncertainty to dissipate [1] - While there may be risks of further market declines in the short term, the long-term bull market is not expected to end, and pullbacks may present good opportunities for allocation [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF (159338) is highlighted as a strategic opportunity to capture the long-term stabilization and recovery of the Chinese economy, as it bundles industry leaders [1] - According to the mid-2025 report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF ranks first among its peers, being more than three times that of the second place [1] - More investors are choosing the CSI A500 ETF (159338), making it a point of interest for potential investors [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has rebounded strongly for two consecutive days, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.7% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.7% [1] - The rebound is attributed to the easing of trade tensions and the reduction of panic over U.S. credit issues, leading to a 2.4% increase in the Chinese concept stocks index overnight, with Alibaba and NetEase both rising over 4% [1] - Traders are currently predicting a 99% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, with another cut expected in December [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of southbound funds and ETF investments into Hong Kong stocks has been significant, with over 45 billion HKD flowing in during October, marking a record high of 1.2 trillion HKD net purchases for the year [1] - The Southern Tech ETF (159269) has seen a net inflow of 1.513 billion HKD since July 25, with the lowest management and custody fees in its category at 0.35% [1] - The Southern Innovative Drug ETF (159297) has experienced continuous net subscriptions since its listing on September 22, with a total net inflow of 478 million HKD and a combined management and custody fee of 0.2%, also the lowest among similar products [1] Group 3 - Guoyuan International believes that the biggest external uncertainty facing the market is the U.S.-China rivalry, which affects investor sentiment and causes short-term market fluctuations [2] - Despite short-term volatility, there is a strong possibility that the Hang Seng Index will return to an upward trend, as ongoing negotiations between the two sides keep overall risk levels manageable [2] - The expectation is that once external disturbances decrease, the Hong Kong stock market will present a better entry opportunity, with a quick recovery anticipated after short-term adjustments [2]