专题：新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛 "新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，主题是"十五五开局，经济新启 航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录： 股票市场在2024年底的上涨，我们认为主要有两大推动因素：一是"觉醒时代"，全世界包括中国内地投 资者重新认识中国在产业革命上的巨大成就；二是人民币在贸易顺差推动下缓慢升值。金融强国第一项 是强大货币，人民币去年升值，从7.4缓慢升值到7，现已破7，经济学界预测今年可能升至6.8，明年升 至6.6，长远看未来十年可能升至兑美元6。过去人民币升值与中国资本市场正相关，与其他国家不同， 中国港股和A股在货币升值时表现更好。 关于人民币，有几个重要信息。由于国内降息形成与美元逆差，人民币已成为国际贷款及跨境债券主要 货币。2019年，人民币在跨境计价债券中占比全球第八，仅4%。2025年，这一数据升至8%，全球排名 第五。无论是熊猫债还是点心债，过去三年都大幅增长。 谈及人民币未来走势，关键在于与美元力量对比。去年，原国际货币基金组织首席经济学家肯尼斯·罗 格夫出 ...

专题：新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛 夏春表示，金融强国有6个元素：强大的货币、强大的央行、强大的金融机构、强大的监管、强大的国 际金融中心、强大的金融人才队伍。 他认为，股票市场在2024年底的上涨，主要有两大推动因素：一是"觉醒时代"，全世界包括中国内地投 资者重新认识中国在产业革命上的巨大成就；二是人民币在贸易顺差推动下缓慢升值。 他指出，在贸易顺差巨大的情况下，已无必要维持相对低的人民币汇率，缓慢升值将有利改善中国国际 环境、国民福利及企业状态。 香港国际金融中心地位不断加强，夏春预测，未来五到十年，香港可能取代伦敦，成为全球第二大国际 金融中心。 本文由钉钉录音卡DingTalk A1协助记录。 "新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，主题是"十五五开局，经济新启 航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春出席并演讲。 "新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办，主题是"十五五开局，经济新启 航——重塑增长范式，共创未来繁荣"。智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春出席并演讲。 夏春表示，金融强国有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Sina Finance 2025 Conference and the 18th Golden Unicorn Forum" will be held on January 15, 2026, in Beijing, focusing on the theme of "Starting the 14th Five-Year Plan, New Economic Voyage - Reshaping Growth Paradigms, Co-creating Future Prosperity" [1][6]. Group 1: Foreign Trade Insights - Despite a challenging international environment, China's exports have shown strong momentum this year, reflecting improvements in technology and industrial competitiveness [3][8]. - A significant trade deficit indicates a reduction in domestic consumption, which is one of the reasons for insufficient domestic demand. This trend is unsustainable in the long term [3][8]. - It is recommended that China implement a basic balance strategy for imports and exports, enhancing export competitiveness while expanding imports and increasing the use of the Renminbi for payment settlements [3][8]. Group 2: Renminbi and Economic Strategy - There is a notable disparity between the proportion of Renminbi foreign reserves and the proportion of foreign trade, indicating a need to shift from retaining foreign exchange to using Renminbi for settlements [5][10]. - Currently, the manufacturing sector accounts for about 30% of the economy, but the monetary function's share is below 5%, which needs to be addressed to align with China's global economic share [5][10]. - The goal is to elevate the Renminbi to become a strong international currency, facilitating its appreciation and sharing the international premium of China's large-scale economy [5][10]. - The transition to a Renminbi appreciation channel is expected to have more benefits than drawbacks, potentially impacting exports in the short term but enhancing productivity and competitive advantages in the medium to long term [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Sina Finance 2025 Conference and the 18th Golden Unicorn Forum" emphasizes the need for China to balance its import and export strategies while enhancing the use of the Renminbi in international trade [1][4]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Strategy - Despite a challenging international environment, China's exports have shown strong momentum, reflecting improvements in technology and industrial competitiveness [1][4]. - A significant trade deficit indicates a reduction in domestic consumption, which is a contributing factor to insufficient domestic demand [1][4]. - It is suggested that China should implement a basic balance strategy for imports and exports, maintaining export competitiveness while expanding imports and increasing Renminbi payments [1][4]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - There is a notable disparity between the proportion of Renminbi reserves and the share of foreign trade, indicating a need to shift from holding foreign exchange to using Renminbi for settlements [3][6]. - Currently, China's manufacturing sector accounts for about 30% of the economy, but the monetary function of the Renminbi is below 5%, which needs to be addressed [3][6]. - The goal is to align the Renminbi's functions with China's global economic share, promoting its status as a strong international currency and facilitating reasonable appreciation [3][6]. Group 3: Long-term Economic Impact - The transition to a Renminbi appreciation phase is expected to have more benefits than drawbacks, potentially impacting exports in the short term but enhancing productivity and competitive advantages in the long run [3][6].

钛媒体App 1月15日消息，中信建投证券发文称，考虑到未来美联储进一步降息的可能，认为人民币2026年仍有 进一步升值空间，人民币汇率有望从当前7.0升值到6.8的水平。人民币本轮升值周期有望支撑A股走强，核心逻 辑有三：一是人民币升值有望提升外资对人民币资产的配置意愿，吸引资金流入A股市场；二是汇率预期的稳 定有利于市场风险偏好的提升和A股整体估值中枢的上行，历史上人民币升值阶段A股表现较好；三是人民币升 值有利于部分企业盈利的改善，主要逻辑包括：高外币负债、高进口依赖、高出海投资等。因此人民币走强一 方面会推动全A指数整体上行，另一方面也会推动外资重仓板块和汇率敏感板块有较好表现。（广角观察） ...

Group 1 - The global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, characterized by "internal and external easing resonance" and a shift from "extraordinary to normal" [3][4][5] - The macro liquidity environment remains favorable, with the People's Bank of China expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7][59] - The depreciation of the US dollar is anticipated due to continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and worsening fiscal conditions, which will support the appreciation of the RMB and strengthen the A-share market [8][62][63] Group 2 - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping the stock-bond allocation logic, with a shift towards equity markets as the attractiveness of fixed income products continues to rise [13][16][44] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to further support the A-share market, as funds flow into equities amid a low interest rate environment [14][17][44] - The demand for "deposit migration" from residents is projected to become the largest marginal increment for the market, as a significant amount of fixed-term deposits mature in 2026 [19][20][44] Group 3 - The capital market's status is significantly upgraded in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation [22][47] - Policies are being implemented to enhance shareholder returns, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and improving profit quality, which is becoming a trend in the market [32][33][56] - The overall funding ecology is improving, with a transition from a "financing-oriented" approach to a "balanced investment and financing" model, enhancing market attractiveness and stability [32][47][56]

Group 1: Macro Liquidity and Economic Environment - The global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, characterized by "internal and external easing resonance" and a shift from "extraordinary to normal" conditions [2][5][61] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts by 50 basis points, with a resumption of balance sheet expansion in December 2025 to alleviate dollar financing pressures [2][5][61] - Domestic monetary policy is transitioning from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment" to "increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [10][61] Group 2: Currency and Stock Market Dynamics - The weakening of the dollar due to continued Fed rate cuts and deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions is expected to support the appreciation of the RMB, which may rise from 7.0 to 6.8 against the dollar [14][17][61] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to enhance foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, improve market risk appetite, and boost corporate profitability, thereby supporting the A-share market [17][61] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - The long-term low interest rate environment is reshaping stock and bond allocation strategies, with a shift towards "fixed income plus" products and increased attractiveness of equity markets [20][21][62] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is expected to guide funds into equity markets, further supporting A-share performance despite potential long-term interest rate rebounds [25][62] Group 4: Capital Market Policy and Structural Changes - The capital market's status is significantly upgraded in the post-real estate era, becoming a core hub for economic development and resource allocation [4][32][63] - Policies are being implemented to enhance shareholder returns, with a focus on increasing dividend payouts and improving the quality of earnings, leading to a more balanced funding ecosystem [45][63] Group 5: Household Savings and Market Impact - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is expected to become a significant marginal increment in the market as a large volume of fixed-term deposits matures in 2026 [3][29][62] - As of November 2025, household deposits in China exceeded 163 trillion yuan, with excess deposits potentially reaching 60 trillion yuan based on historical trends [28][29]

Group 1: Exchange Settlement Overview - The estimated "pending settlement" amount for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, accumulated from early 2022 to November 2025[1] - The willingness of export enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to improve in 2025 due to the RMB entering an appreciation cycle and strong performance of Chinese financial assets[1] - By the end of 2026, if 20% of the pending settlement is realized, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth[1] Group 2: Impact on Liquidity and Market - Enterprise settlement essentially converts foreign exchange assets into RMB deposits, affecting the balance sheets of central banks, commercial banks, and enterprises[1] - The relationship between M1 growth and PPI typically shows that M1 growth leads PPI growth by 2-3 quarters, but the current M1 increase may have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand[1] - High-risk enterprises may channel some of the funds from settlements into the stock market, potentially providing incremental capital to the A-share market[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, potential data distortion from third-party sources, and the possibility of measurement deviations[1] - The analysis indicates that while M1 growth is expected, its direct influence on corporate profitability may be limited due to the different driving factors compared to previous cycles[1]

Core Viewpoint - In recent years, Chinese export enterprises have shown a clear tendency to "hold foreign exchange without settling." Starting from early 2025, as the RMB enters an appreciation cycle and Chinese assets are revalued, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to rebound. The recent RMB exchange rate against the USD has broken through 7.0, and mainstream expectations suggest that the RMB will continue to appreciate, further stimulating enterprises' settlement sentiment and positively impacting liquidity and the market [2][3][12]. Group 1: Settlement Willingness and Scale - The "pending settlement" scale for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, with an expected increase in settlement willingness by 2025. From early 2022 to November 2025, export enterprises accumulated $930 billion in foreign exchange that has not been settled [3][7]. - The settlement rate, which measures the proportion of foreign exchange that enterprises actively convert to RMB, is a good indicator of their willingness to settle. A higher settlement rate indicates stronger willingness [8][10]. - Since early 2025, the settlement rate has improved significantly, rising from a low of 54.4% in February 2025 to a high of 71.2% in September 2025, indicating a shift from "holding foreign exchange" to "steady settlement" [10][11]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Settlement Willingness - Two main factors influence enterprises' willingness to settle: expectations regarding the RMB exchange rate and the comparative returns of holding different currencies. When enterprises expect the RMB to appreciate, they are more inclined to settle early to avoid exchange losses [11][13]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased due to favorable developments in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and effective responses to trade tensions, which have boosted risk appetite and improved the performance of Chinese financial assets [13][14]. Group 3: Impact on Liquidity and Market - The settlement of foreign exchange essentially converts foreign assets into RMB deposits, impacting the balance sheets of the central bank, commercial banks, and enterprises. However, the effect on the base currency supply is minimal if commercial banks do not sell the foreign exchange to the central bank [15][20]. - If 20% of the pending settlement is realized by the end of 2026, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth [24][27]. - The increase in M1 is expected to have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand, and some high-risk enterprises may channel funds into the stock market, providing incremental capital to A-shares [27][28][31].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been underperforming compared to the A-share market since Q4 2025, with liquidity issues and a lack of strong rebounds in key sectors like innovative drugs and technology being significant factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a correction trend since Q4 2025, with previously leading sectors like innovative drugs and technology struggling to rebound [1]. - By the end of last year, the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index experienced a pullback, resulting in a lack of performance from related thematic funds, with only one fund, Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection, rising over 112% [2]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index also faced a high-level pullback, dropping approximately 15% in a single quarter, leading to an overall annual increase of only about 20% [2]. Group 2: Liquidity Issues - Liquidity has been identified as a core factor suppressing Hong Kong stock valuations, with many fundamentally strong stocks experiencing significant price drops due to low trading volumes [1][4]. - In 2025, the total fundraising amount from IPOs in Hong Kong reached approximately HKD 280 billion, with predictions of over HKD 300 billion in 2026, posing a challenge to market liquidity [4]. - The net inflow of southbound funds significantly slowed in December, with only HKD 23 billion entering the market, which is substantially lower than previous months [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers emphasize the importance of prioritizing "win rate over odds" in Hong Kong stock investments, advocating for value investing and diversification to mitigate liquidity risks [7][8]. - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamentals and quality of companies, as historical integrity issues can significantly impact valuations [8]. - The current trend of RMB appreciation may provide a buffer against liquidity concerns, potentially attracting more capital into the Hong Kong market [6]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Fund managers are increasingly optimistic about the value proposition of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, which are seen as having significant growth potential [9][10]. - There is a growing interest in consumer sectors, particularly in high-quality cultural products and competitive tea beverage companies, which are expected to achieve stable long-term growth [10].