Group 1 - The Brazilian beef processing lobby is advocating for measures to exempt meat and agricultural products from a 50% tariff [1]

Group 1 - The company has slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast, now expecting it to be between 11.3% and 11.8%, an increase of 50 basis points from previous expectations [1] - In the second quarter, the company's sales grew by 1% year-on-year, reaching €4.3 billion (approximately $4.98 billion) [1] - The company had previously lowered its annual profit forecast in May, attributing it to costs associated with tariffs, estimating potential losses of up to €300 million [1] Group 2 - A report from February indicated that the company paid €38 million in tariffs in the U.S. last year, highlighting the significant impact of tariffs on its operations [2] - The U.S. is the company's largest market, expected to account for about 40% of its sales in 2024, with one-third of its tax payments coming from this market [2] - The company imports various products from China, including respiratory masks and electric shavers, while also sourcing medical equipment from Europe [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump's recent trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines signify a shift in regional power dynamics, particularly affecting the political futures of Japanese Prime Minister Kishida and Philippine President Marcos [1][15]. - Japan's automotive industry is significantly impacted by the U.S. reducing tariffs from 25% to 15%, which, while seemingly beneficial, actually diminishes Japan's competitive edge in the long term [3][5]. - Japan is required to invest $550 billion in the U.S. as part of the trade agreement, which could exacerbate its existing economic challenges and lead to capital outflow [6][8]. Group 2 - The trade agreement mandates Japan to open its markets for rice, automobiles, and energy, putting pressure on domestic industries and potentially harming local farmers due to increased competition from U.S. imports [8][10]. - The political landscape in Japan is unstable, with Kishida facing immense pressure following a historic loss in the recent Senate elections, leading to calls for his resignation [12][14]. - The Philippines' trade agreement with the U.S. includes a zero-tariff policy for U.S. goods entering the Philippines, while Philippine goods face a 19% tariff in the U.S., creating an imbalanced trade relationship [17][19]. Group 3 - President Marcos's attempts to seek U.S. support against China have not yielded the desired results, as the U.S. prioritizes its trade relations with China over supporting the Philippines [19][21]. - Marcos's political position is precarious due to rising tensions with the Duterte family and declining public support following electoral setbacks, complicating his ability to govern effectively [23][25].

Group 1 - The South Korean government plans to propose an investment of at least $100 billion in the U.S. as a bargaining chip to negotiate lower tariffs [1] - Major South Korean conglomerates, including Samsung, SK Group, Hyundai Motor Group, and LG Group, have committed to participate in this investment plan [1] - The U.S.-Korea tariff negotiations have been delayed due to the urgent schedule of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, raising speculation about U.S. pressure on South Korea [1] Group 2 - South Korea is under increasing negotiation pressure, especially after Japan secured a deal with the U.S. to establish a $550 billion fund for direct investment in exchange for reduced tariffs [3] - South Korea is considering the establishment of an investment fund as part of its negotiations with the U.S., potentially to invest in specific projects within the U.S. [3] - Analysts emphasize the importance of achieving a 15% tariff rate similar to Japan, with the automotive industry likely included in the agreement [5] Group 3 - President Trump has reiterated a strong stance on tariffs, indicating potential tariffs of 15% to 50% on various countries, including South Korea [5] - The urgency for South Korea to secure a large-scale investment deal is driven by the impending deadline of August 1, as it seeks to avoid becoming a target for high tariffs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Japan and the United States on tariffs is expected to significantly boost the Japanese stock market, with a reduction in tariffs from 25% to 15%, which is the lowest level announced for any country to date [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Agreement Impact - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, while Japan commits to investing $550 billion in the U.S. [1] - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, as it will lower export costs [2][8]. - The easing of tariff uncertainties is likely to revive delayed pricing strategies, investment plans, and overseas mergers and acquisitions for Japanese firms [2]. Group 2: Earnings and Market Expectations - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Japanese companies have been significantly downgraded, from an expected growth of 8-9% to just 1.6%, indicating that the impact of tariffs has been partially priced in [3]. - The Japanese stock market's EPS is expected to bottom out after the release of quarterly earnings reports, potentially leading to a recovery [3][4]. - If the large-scale investment from Japan to the U.S. results in a depreciation of the yen, it could further boost the EPS of Japanese companies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Trends - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to rise slightly before EPS bottoms out, which could lead to an upward trend in the Japanese stock market if both metrics move in tandem [4]. - The resolution of tariff issues and confirmation of EPS bottoming out could open up further upside potential for the Japanese stock market [4]. Group 4: Political Leadership and Market Sentiment - The potential resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is not expected to have a significant impact on the stock market, as various successor scenarios could still yield positive outcomes [5][6]. - Different leadership styles, whether conservative or moderate, may influence fiscal policies but are unlikely to negatively affect the stock market [5][6]. Group 5: Sector Rotation and Investment Opportunities - The market is likely to see a rotation towards cyclical stocks, particularly those in the automotive sector, which are expected to rebound due to improved pricing competitiveness [7][8]. - Financial stocks may also experience valuation recovery if tariff issues are resolved and market expectations for interest rate hikes are reignited [9]. - Increased imports of U.S. rice could lower rice prices, improving consumer sentiment and benefiting domestic consumption-related sectors [10].

Group 1 - Indonesia is negotiating with the United States to exempt key minerals from a 19% tariff and to avoid quota restrictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's Finance Minister is set to meet with U.S. trade officials to propose new measures aimed at avoiding a potential 36% tariff threatened by President Trump [1] Group 1 - The meeting will involve discussions on revised proposals, including further tariff reductions on U.S. products [1] - The Thai Commerce Minister indicated that the Finance Minister will hold a video conference with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [1]

Group 1: Export Growth and Market Expansion - Shenzhen's total import and export value is projected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024, reclaiming the title of "China's Foreign Trade Capital" with exports of 2.81 trillion yuan, a growth of 14.6% [1] - In the first five months of this year, Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 1.78 trillion yuan, with exports amounting to 1.06 trillion yuan [1] - The export of mobile phones to Africa reached 340 million yuan in May, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, highlighting the strong demand in the African market [2] Group 2: Key Product Categories - In the first five months of 2025, Shenzhen's export of electromechanical products reached 793.69 billion yuan, accounting for 75% of the total export value, with electronic components and computers showing significant growth [3] - The export of lithium batteries and electric vehicles reached 28.87 billion yuan and 11.18 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 33.1% and 16.7% [3] Group 3: Food and Agricultural Products - Shenzhen has enhanced its fresh fruit export capabilities, with a 30.2% year-on-year increase in the export of fresh fruits and agricultural products through the airport [4] - The export of traditional food items like rice dumplings has also seen significant growth, with over 157 tons exported in the first five months, a 95.2% increase [5] Group 4: Trade Agreements and Cost Reduction - The issuance of origin certificates under free trade agreements has facilitated the export of lithium batteries, with 3,489 certificates issued, covering a value of 3.25 billion yuan [6] - The reduction in trade costs due to these agreements has provided a competitive pricing advantage for Shenzhen's products in international markets [6] Group 5: Innovation and New Market Development - Shenzhen's Chuangtong Yigou Technology Co., Ltd. reported a 130% increase in export value to 473 million yuan in the first five months, successfully entering new markets like ASEAN [7] - The city is leveraging technological innovation and cultural dissemination to expand its overseas market presence across various sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The EU is negotiating with the US to protect its automotive industry from high import tariffs, aiming to reach a trade agreement framework before the August 1 deadline set by Trump [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - Brussels is discussing measures such as reducing tariffs, setting import quotas, and providing deductions for EU car manufacturers' exports to the US [1] - The negotiations are part of the European Commission's efforts to secure tariff reductions in key sectors like automotive and aerospace [1] - A proposal on the negotiation table includes tariff reductions for car manufacturers producing in the US and exporting to other countries [1] Group 2: Importance of Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is considered a "red line" for the EU, making US concessions on this issue a prerequisite for any agreement [1] - EU negotiators are prioritizing the automotive industry in their discussions, indicating its critical importance to the EU economy [1] Group 3: Progress of Negotiations - Sources indicate that the negotiations are progressing "rapidly," suggesting a potential for a timely resolution [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].