Market Overview - Major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05% at 3725.22 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.71% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.43 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3400 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The State Council emphasized strengthening domestic circulation and stimulating consumption, leading to a third consecutive day of gains in the liquor sector, with stocks like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye performing well [3] - The food and beverage, tourism, and other consumer sectors also saw increases, with stocks such as JiuGuiJiu and Quanjude hitting the daily limit [3] - The small metals sector performed strongly, with stocks like Dongfang Zirconium and Yunnan Zhenzhu hitting the daily limit, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals rising over 9% [3] - Bank stocks experienced a broad rally, with China Bank and Xiamen Bank rising over 2%, and Postal Savings Bank reaching a historical high [3] Declining Sectors - The film and television sector faced significant declines, with stocks like Ciweng Media dropping nearly 9% and Huace Film and Television down nearly 8% [3] - The pharmaceutical sector collectively fell, with stocks such as New Tian Pharmaceutical hitting the limit down, and Shutai Shen and Nuocheng Jianhua dropping over 8% [3] - The liquid cooling server concept also saw a pullback, with stocks like Kangsheng falling [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to unify thoughts and actions with the central government's scientific judgment and decision-making regarding the current economic situation [1] - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, achieving new results in high-quality development despite facing risks and challenges [1][2] - There is a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations [2] Group 2 - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, with an emphasis on stimulating consumption and expanding effective investment [2] - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, addressing improvement demands through various approaches [2] - There is a commitment to deepen reform and opening up, fostering innovation in technology and industry, and expanding high-level foreign trade [2] Group 3 - The meeting called for continuous improvement in administrative efficiency, optimizing government regulation and services to create favorable conditions for citizens and businesses [3] - There is an emphasis on innovative thinking and enhancing capabilities to adapt to new situations and solve emerging problems [3] - The overall goal is to improve the quality of government work through practical efforts and a results-oriented approach [3]

Economic Recovery and Growth - The State Council meeting emphasized consolidating and expanding the positive momentum of economic recovery, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, focusing on stimulating consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [1][7] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China has shown a significant recovery, contributing 52% to the 5.3% GDP growth in the first half of the year, making consumption the leading driver of economic growth [2] - Policies such as trade-in incentives and potential nationwide birth subsidies are expected to further stimulate consumption, reflecting the government's commitment to boosting domestic demand [2][3] New Consumption Trends - The meeting called for the cultivation of service consumption and new consumption growth points, with innovative and competitive products driving growth in both goods and services [4] - New consumption trends, including pet and self-care markets, are emerging as significant contributors to economic activity, necessitating regulatory support for innovative consumption [4] Policy Measures for Consumption - The government plans to systematically eliminate restrictive measures in the consumption sector to enhance consumer freedom and stimulate demand [5][6] - Recommendations include reforming consumption taxes and optimizing personal income tax to increase disposable income and promote consumption [6] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The meeting underscored the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which plays a crucial role in driving consumption and economic stability [7][8] - Adjustments to housing policies, such as increasing loan limits and reducing down payment ratios, are expected to lower barriers for homebuyers and stimulate demand [8]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector continues to rise, with the Food ETF (515710) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.3% and closing up 0.81%, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - Major stocks in the liquor sector saw significant gains, with Jiugui Liquor hitting the daily limit, Shede Liquor rising by 6.25%, and Yanghe Distillery increasing by 5.36% [1] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from ongoing consumption promotion policies, particularly for liquor companies [3] Group 2 - The food ETF (515710) is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.06, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Despite recent price increases, the liquor sector is still considered undervalued, providing a good entry point for investors [3][4] - The market anticipates a recovery in demand for liquor during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may help mitigate the decline in sales observed in the second quarter [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [4] - Key stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, indicating a strong focus on established players in the market [4] - The ETF provides a way for investors to gain exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [4]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the same period last year and the overall annual growth rate, ranking among the top major economies [1] - The import and export scale reached a historical high for the same period, with exports increasing by 7.2% year-on-year [1] Current Economic Challenges - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to recognize the risks and challenges facing the economy, advocating for a proactive approach to leverage development opportunities and maintain economic recovery momentum [2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of policy continuity and stability, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] Domestic Consumption and Investment - Domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth, contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.8% year-on-year [6] - Investment in urbanization projects, such as upgrading old neighborhoods and improving public services, is expected to generate significant consumption demand and new investment needs [9] Foreign Trade and Investment - In the first seven months, China's total import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with high-tech product exports rising by 7.2% [10] - The number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises reached 30,014, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, indicating stable foreign trade and investment performance [10] Innovation and Technology - High-tech manufacturing output increased by 9.5% year-on-year in the first seven months, with industrial robot production rising by 24% [16] - China maintains a leading position in global manufacturing, with a complete industrial system and strong supporting capabilities [18] Policy Measures and Reforms - The government is implementing various macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment and support enterprises, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and adjustments to monetary policy tools [21] - Reforms aimed at enhancing market competition and supporting small and medium-sized enterprises are being actively pursued [22][23] Future Outlook - The focus is on leveraging unique advantages, such as a rich talent pool and a robust industrial base, to drive innovation and economic growth [17][19] - The emphasis on high-quality development and the integration of technology and industry is expected to foster new growth drivers and enhance economic resilience [20][25]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, outperforming the same period last year and ranking among the top major economies [1] - The import and export scale reached a historical high for the same period, with exports increasing by 7.2% year-on-year [1] Current Economic Challenges - The Chinese economy still faces numerous risks and challenges, necessitating a correct understanding of the situation and a focus on strategic stability [2][4] - The external environment is increasingly complex and uncertain due to rising unilateralism and protectionism globally [3] Domestic Economic Strengths - China's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential for long-term growth [4] - Domestic consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth, contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [6] Consumption and Investment Strategies - To stimulate consumption, measures will be taken to enhance residents' income and create diverse consumption scenarios [7] - Investment in urbanization and infrastructure, such as upgrading old neighborhoods and improving public services, is expected to generate substantial new investment demand [9] Foreign Trade and Investment - In the first seven months, China's total import and export volume increased by 3.5%, with high-tech product exports growing by 7.2% [10] - The number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises reached 30,014, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [10] Market Expansion and Opportunities - China has achieved growth in trade with over 190 countries and regions, with 61 partners exceeding a trade scale of 50 billion [11] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance its openness with a significant expansion of zero-tariff products [12] Innovation and Development - High-tech manufacturing has shown robust growth, with a 9.5% year-on-year increase in added value for large-scale high-tech industries [16] - The number of high-value patents has reached 5.01 million, reflecting strong innovation capabilities [16] Policy and Reform Initiatives - The government is implementing proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations [21] - Reforms are being deepened to create a fair market environment and support the development of various enterprises [22][23] Conclusion - By leveraging development opportunities and maintaining strategic focus, China aims to achieve high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and lay a solid foundation for the next phase of development [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report indicates that the recent slight decline in tin prices is mostly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have slightly increased. LME inventories continue to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,090 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract of Shanghai tin is 40 yuan higher. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,702 dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 21,004 hands, down 1,092 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 713 hands. The total inventory of LME tin is 1,655 tons, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange (weekly) is 7,792 tons, down 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 145 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange (daily) are 7,513 tons [3]. 现货 Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,110 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 1,890 yuan/ton, down 1,670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 89 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,370 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. Industry News - Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluating policy implementation, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. He also mentioned measures to strengthen the domestic large - scale cycle, stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and promote the construction of a unified national market. There are also measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In July, the increase in production was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan's production area is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi's production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, since it has entered the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid - demand production and procurement, and the orders are just passable. Recently, the tin price has slightly declined, mainly due to the rigid - demand purchases of downstream enterprises and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The LME inventory continues to decline. Technically, with the decline in positions and cautiousness from both long and short sides, the lower shadow阳线 shows support, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation [3]. - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless - steel plants have improved, and the plants have increased production; the production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, but the downstream procurement demand is still weak, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased; the overseas LME inventory has increased [3]. - Technically, the price has fallen with an increase in positions, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in a range. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price difference between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,170 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 30,724 lots, a decrease of 200 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,094 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 121,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 194.65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.23 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 billion tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 billion tons, a decrease of 459,000 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals set by the government [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The Chinese economy has shown steady progress and high-quality development under the strong leadership of the central government, overcoming difficulties and challenges [4]. - There is a recognition of both the achievements made and the risks and challenges faced in the current economic environment, necessitating a balanced understanding of the situation [4]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - There is a call to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy implementation, ensuring policies are targeted and responsive to market concerns to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The focus is on strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, stimulating consumption, and expanding effective investment [5]. Group 3: Market and Investment - The government aims to consolidate the real estate market's stabilization and promote urban renewal projects to release improvement demand [5]. - There is an emphasis on deepening reform and opening up to enhance development momentum, particularly through innovation in technology and industry [5]. Group 4: Administrative Efficiency - Local governments are urged to improve administrative efficiency and optimize regulatory and service frameworks to create favorable conditions for businesses and citizens [6]. - The importance of practical problem-solving and enhancing government work quality is highlighted [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with large price fluctuations and an overall positive outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 87,540 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 149,845 hands, up 13,913 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 414,097 hands, down 7,009 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,555 hands/ton, up 70 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,840 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 990 US dollars/ton, up 79 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4%; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.53 million yuan/ton, up 0.03 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1%; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.33%, up 0.69%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.74%, up 0.36% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 148,147 contracts, down 3,229 contracts; the total put position is 138,973 contracts, up 16,351 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 93.81%, up 12.8026%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang: Consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. Further enhance the implementation effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluate policy implementation, respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations. Strengthen the domestic big cycle. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of the year, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses, and the problem of tight liquidity spread across the entire circulation industry. In 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat trend, but the growth expectation is lower than that at the end of last year. - TrendForce: In the second quarter, global new - energy vehicle (NEV) sales, including battery - electric vehicles (BEV), plug - in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and hydrogen - fuel - cell vehicles, reached 4.868 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Including hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), EV sales in the second quarter reached 6.456 million, accounting for 29% of global vehicle sales [2] Viewpoint Summary - The put - call ratio of option positions is 93.81%, up 12.8026% compared with the previous period. The call position in the option market dominates, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2] Operation Suggestion - Conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]