Group 1 - The average increase in employment over the past three months is only 35,000, marking the weakest hiring pace since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 [1] - The labor force participation rate is declining, with the labor force shrinking for the second consecutive month, which is a concerning sign [1] - Despite many individuals exiting the job market, the unemployment rate rose in July, indicating further economic concerns [1] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3%, slightly up from 0.2% in June, with a year-over-year income growth of 3.9%, outpacing inflation and suggesting an increase in workers' purchasing power [1] - Employment indicators from household surveys showed a contraction in July, further highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with a significant reduction in the market's expectation for a rate cut in September from 65% to below 50% [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve's decision was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the chair's decision [4]. - The meeting statement included new language indicating "economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year," reflecting concerns about growth momentum [4]. - There is a shift in focus from solely inflation to also considering employment market risks, suggesting that if employment deteriorates, the Fed may prioritize action [4][8]. Group 2: Future Policy Outlook - The potential for a rate cut in September will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly regarding inflation and employment [7]. - If inflation data shows an increase due to tariffs or rising import prices, it could delay any rate cuts [7]. - The current unemployment rate is stable, but weak corporate investment and reduced immigration could lead to job market deterioration, with a threshold of 4.5% unemployment potentially triggering a rate cut [7]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the Fed's meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the annual expected rate cuts revised from 2.2 to 1.8 times [8]. - The risk of "moderate stagflation" in the U.S. economy is rising, with second-quarter real private consumption growth at only 1.2% and weak corporate capital expenditures [8]. - Short-term market volatility increased, with declines in U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar, reflecting the market's absorption of the Fed's hawkish signals [10]. Group 4: External Variables - Political pressure from former President Trump on Fed Chair Powell regarding rate cuts poses a challenge to the Fed's independence [10]. - Ongoing trade negotiations, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico, could impact inflation risks if tariffs are escalated [10].

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, marking a shift in economic description from "moderate expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The meeting saw two dissenting votes for the first time since 1993, indicating increased division among policymakers [2] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2023 decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points following Powell's comments [1] Inflation and Employment - Powell highlighted that tariffs have been overlooked in their impact on inflation, suggesting that the costs will gradually be passed to consumers [1] - The labor market remains robust, with unemployment rates at historical lows, but a gradual weakening is expected in Q4 [1] - CPI growth is anticipated to rebound slightly in Q3 due to tariff impacts, but may decline again in Q4 as demand slows [1] Future Rate Cuts - The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in Q3, with potential cuts in October and December, bringing the year-end policy rate to approximately 3.83% [1] - The anticipated cuts are driven by rising unemployment and the economic impact of tariffs [2] Market Implications - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise initially before declining, with year-end projections at around 4.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index may rise in Q3 due to inflation rebounds, but could decline in Q4 as inflation falls and rate cuts are implemented [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July 2025 meeting, with some members opposing and supporting a 25BP rate cut [8]. - Powell's stance is hawkish, and he has no pre - set expectations for the September policy decision, which dampens market rate - cut expectations [8]. - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is low. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for tariff transmission results [9]. - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term [9]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space, and the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged. Members Bowman and Waller voted against and supported a 25BP rate cut this month [8]. Powell's Stance - Powell adheres to data - dependence and has no policy expectations for September, which hits market rate - cut expectations [8]. - In terms of inflation, Powell aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into continuous inflation, hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy, and believes that tariff transmission to prices may be slower than expected [8][10]. - Regarding employment, Powell thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downward risks [5][10]. - On economic growth, Powell admits that the overall economic growth has slowed down, and large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making some signals difficult to interpret. He also believes that although consumer growth has slowed down, consumers' credit conditions are good [5][10]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered the expectation of a September rate cut. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to rise, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose by 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared with before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [9]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is not high. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for longer - term tariff transmission results [9]. Outlook for US Treasury Yields - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term, and the downward revision of the rate - cut expectation provides some allocation opportunities [9]. Outlook for US Dollar Index - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has generally risen and has now rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space. Without a substantial weakening signal in the US labor market and continuous rate cuts by the Fed, the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9].

证券研究报告 固收视角 不急于行动,但出现分歧 -7月FOMC 点评 华泰研究 2025年7月31日|中国内地 | 张继强 | 陶冶 | 王建刚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570518110002 | SAC No. S0570522040001 | SAC No. S0570124070098 | | SFC No. AMB145 | taoye019714@htsc.com | wangjiangang@htsc.com | | zhangjiqiang@htsc.com | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | +(86) 755 8249 2388 | | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | | FOMC 声明要点 美联储召开了月 FOMC 会议,联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25~4.5%,符合市场预期。会议声明表示,尽管净出口 的波动对数据产生了影响,上半年经济活动有所放缓(6月表达为稳步扩张),不确定性仍高,失业率维持低泣,就业 市场依然稳健。有两位美联储理事，鲍曼和沃勒、投下反对票，认为了月就应该 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 往前看,联储9月能否降息主要取决于 7-8月经济数据:若就业数据走弱或 关税对通胀传导不及预期,联储仍有望在9月开启降息。尽管鲍威尔强调就 业市场维持稳健,但是鲍威尔也承认就业市场面临下行风险。我们认为,就 业市场或进一步降温:6月岗位空缺数据显示就业市场需求仍在回落:5月 底以来驱逐非法移民加速,或加大就业的下行风险。此外,由于企业对需求 评估偏弱,关税对通胀的传导或不及此前预期,有助于缓解联储对通胀上行 的担忧（参见《关税将何时推升美国通胀?》,2025/7/18）。因此,我们 维持联储仍有可能在 9-12 月降息两次的判断。但是,如果就业和通胀数据 强于预期,联储年内降息预期或进一步回撤。近期关注周五(8月1日)将 2025年7月31日|中国内地 动态点评 北京时间 7月 31 日(周四)凌晨,联储如期按兵不动,基准利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%。两名联储理事投票反对:决议声明调整偏鸽派,但鲍威尔讲 话未能提供 9月降息的指引,发言偏鹰派。理事 Waller 和理事 Bowman 此 前要求 7月降息,本次会议投票反对维持利率不变的决议,是 1993年以来 首次出现两名理事投票反对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating for this specific topic in the given content. Core Viewpoints - At the July 2025 meeting, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%, with dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller who supported a 25BP rate cut. Powell's hawkish stance dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [2]. - The market adjusted its September rate - cut expectations after the Fed's press conference, with short - term interest rates rising significantly, the US dollar continuing to strengthen, and the US stock market under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. - Regarding US Treasury yields, if inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration [2]. - For the US dollar index, short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5%. Bowman and Waller voted against, supporting a 25BP rate cut this month [2]. Powell's Stance - Powell's stance was hawkish, not pre - setting expectations for the September policy decision. He adheres to data - dependence. In terms of inflation, he aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into persistent inflation and hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy. He believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is in the early stage and the transfer to consumers may be slower than expected [2]. - Regarding employment, he thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downside risks. In terms of economic growth, he admits the overall economic growth has slowed, and the large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making it difficult to interpret some signals. He also believes consumers' credit conditions are good despite the slowdown in consumption growth [2]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered its September rate - cut expectations. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to strengthen, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared to before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [2]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - There is no high certainty of a September rate cut. If the unemployment rate remains stable or rises slightly in the next two months, the Fed may keep the interest rate unchanged to wait for the longer - term impact of tariffs. The delay in tariff transfer to consumers may imply consumer weakness [2]. US Treasury Yields Outlook - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, US Treasury yields may rise further. Short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration, and the downward revision of rate - cut expectations provides some allocation opportunities [2]. US Dollar Index Outlook - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has risen. Short - term short - covering may bring some upward space. The view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [2].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Two FOMC members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[2] - The Fed's statement acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, indicating a shift from previous assessments[2][5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about inflation, noting that tariffs are beginning to impact prices, particularly in categories like toys and furniture[3][4] - The June CPI data showed a rebound, suggesting rising inflationary pressures[3] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly recovering from a -0.5% in the first quarter, largely due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports[8] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts within the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September[9] - The effective tariff rate is projected to remain around 15%-16%, which may lead to moderate inflation increases but is not expected to significantly impact overall inflation levels[6][9] - The Fed's decision-making will depend on clearer signals regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions[7][9]

新华财经北京7月31日电 美联储在7月的货币政策会议上决定维持基准利率在4.25%-4.5%区间不变。此 次会议中，理事米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒投下反对票，主张应启动降息以反映通胀受控和劳动力 市场可能走弱的前景 。这是自1993年末以来首次出现两名理事对利率决议持反对立场的情况 。 尽管面对来自总统特朗普要求大幅降息的压力，以及市场对9月降息的强烈预期，美联储主席鲍威尔依 然坚持"数据驱动"立场，强调需要观察关税政策对通胀的影响。反映出美联储在政治压力与经济数据之 间寻求平衡的复杂处境，同时也暴露了FOMC内部对通胀持续性、就业市场前景及政策主动性的分歧。 一、经济数据支撑与政策考量 美联储维持利率不变的决策有其经济数据支撑。第二季度美国GDP年化增长率达到了3%，显著超越预 期，并扭转了第一季度0.5%的萎缩态势。然而，这一增长主要由净出口贡献，而非内需驱动。净出口 对GDP的贡献高达5个百分点，这主要是由于进口激增消退后的统计性反弹造成，而非经济内在动力的 增强。私人部门表现疲软，私人国内最终销售仅增长1.2%，为2022年末以来的最低水平，显示出真实 需求动能正在逐渐减弱。尽管消费支出增长了2. ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not provide guidance on a potential interest rate cut in September, stating it is too early to assert whether the Fed will lower the federal funds rate as the financial markets expect [1][4][10] - Current interest rates are deemed "moderately restrictive," with inflation slightly above the 2% target, and the labor market remains strong with low unemployment [10][14][29] - The Fed is prepared to adjust its policy stance based on upcoming economic data and the balance of risks, with significant data expected before the September meeting [11][30][46] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Activity - Inflation has significantly decreased from its mid-2022 peak but remains slightly above the 2% target, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [6][14] - Service inflation has slowed significantly, while goods inflation is rising, influenced by tariffs that have begun to impact prices [6][14][19] - Economic activity has shown signs of slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at approximately 1.2% compared to 2.5% the previous year [4][13][36] Group 3: Labor Market - The labor market remains balanced, with unemployment rates low and indicators similar to those from a year ago, despite a slowdown in job growth [5][40] - Wage growth is slowing but still outpaces inflation, indicating a stable labor market overall [5][14] - The Fed is closely monitoring the labor market for potential downtrends, as both labor demand and supply are decreasing [40][41] Group 4: Tariffs and Their Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still being assessed, with the process of price transmission expected to be slower than previously anticipated [8][9][19] - There is a reasonable assumption that the inflationary effects of tariffs may be temporary, but there is also a risk that these effects could become more persistent [8][9] - The Fed is committed to using its tools to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into sustained inflation [9][20] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Fed will continue to evaluate all evidence and data to determine the appropriate policy stance, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks [7][30][46] - The upcoming months will provide critical data that could influence the Fed's decision on interest rates, with a focus on achieving the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability [28][30][46] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of timing in policy adjustments to avoid unnecessary harm to the labor market while addressing inflation concerns [20][30]