Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of geopolitical events, specifically Egypt's gas supply cut, Iran's production halt, and Russia's production reduction, leading to a sudden evaporation of 20% of global capacity, which may drive up urea prices further [1] Group 1 - Egypt's gas supply cut has contributed to a reduction in global production capacity [1] - Iran's production halt adds to the supply constraints in the market [1] - Russia's production reduction further exacerbates the situation, collectively resulting in a 20% loss of global capacity [1] Group 2 - The combination of these geopolitical factors is likely to push urea prices higher [1] - The market is closely monitoring these developments for potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The recovery timeline for urea production in Iran or Egypt remains uncertain, indicating potential upward price movement in the future [1] - European importers are increasingly viewing urea as a critical commodity, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1] Industry Summary - Urea prices are expected to have upward potential due to the uncertain recovery of production in key regions [1] - The demand for urea in Europe is rising, which may influence global pricing strategies [1]

印度尿素招标价高于市场预期、伊朗预防性停产，多重因素支撑下尿素大幅走高。此外，中国尿素出口 有序进行，尿素上方是否还有空间？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in urea inventory in China, raising concerns about potential further price declines in the market [1] - India's recent urea tender has drawn attention, indicating a shift in demand dynamics within the region [1] Industry Summary - China's urea inventory has seen a notable rise, which could lead to downward pressure on prices [1] - The recent urea tender from India suggests a potential increase in demand, which may influence regional pricing strategies [1]

1. 国内需求偏弱且出口实际流速偏慢的背景下，贸易商投机性逐步走弱，部分工厂价格下调。 尿素贸易商报价伴随投机性减弱有所下调，预计现货后续中长周期视角下呈现震荡承压的状 态。截至 2025 年 6 月 4 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 103.54 万吨，较上周增加 5.48 万吨，环 比增加 5.59%。本周期尿素企业库存继续小幅增加。一方面，部分尿素企业接出口订单，因处 于法检期间，尿素货源暂时被锁定。另一方面，国内尿素需求不温不火，局部农业需求有所 增量，但仍有部分区域尿素企业出货不畅。其中企业库存增加的省份：安徽、甘肃、海南、 河北、河南、湖北、江西、内蒙古、青海、山东、四川、云南。企业库存减少的省份：黑龙 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 09 日 尿素：偏弱运行 | | | 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,720 | 1,722 | - 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | ...

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲尿素周报：尿素价格已逼近1700关口，但后市仍不宜过度悲观？除了即将到来的夏季需求外，目前 已成交X万吨的出口也将为价格带来支撑？ 相关链接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Under the joint suppression of domestic fundamentals and policies, the upside space for urea is limited, and the spot is expected to be under pressure. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the price, with possible periodic rebounds. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This cycle, some enterprises such as Yankuang Lunan Chemical are under maintenance, while Jiangsu Jinmei Hengsheng Chemical, Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Production, and Anhui Quansheng Chemical have resumed production. Next week, the daily urea output will be around 20.5 tons [5] Inventory - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 tons, and the inventory of major Chinese ports was 20.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons [5] Demand - In the agricultural sector, there is an expectation for the start of top - dressing for corn fertilizer after the wheat harvest, but the start is not obvious yet, with only sporadic follow - up. In the industrial sector, the start - up of compound fertilizers shows signs of weakening, and the consumption of urea is expected to decline after production ends. In terms of exports, the subsequent factory inspections are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term [5] Spot - On Sunday of this week, the price in Shandong was 1810 (09 basis - 37), and in Henan it was 1800 (09 basis - 47). The nitrogen fertilizer association's guidance price for June affected the market, with Shandong urea factories receiving more orders and raising prices [6]

2025 年 05 月 26 日 尿素：内需偏弱，出口支撑，震荡运行 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 目 | | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,827 | 1,849 | -22 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,837 | 1,851 | -14 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 172,580 | 123,929 | 48651 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 214,818 | 223,161 | -8343 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,548 | 7,573 | -25 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 633,927 | 458,716 | 175210 | | | 差 | | 山东地区基差 | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a significant decline in prices of commodities like crude oil and urea futures [1] - Urea spot market activity has improved as macroeconomic negative factors are gradually digested, with some companies starting to control order volumes and tentatively raise prices [1][5] - The urea market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the contradiction between demand recovery expectations and weak actual demand [1] Group 2: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea remains strong, with direct agricultural use and compound fertilizer demand accounting for 49% and 17% of total demand, respectively [2][3] - The peak demand season for urea aligns with the critical growth period for most crops, particularly in southern regions where rice planting occurs [2] - As drought conditions ease, agricultural demand is expected to gradually recover, with increased fertilizer preparation in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea, particularly for melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin, is closely tied to the real estate sector [3] - The recovery in real estate construction in 2025 is anticipated to stabilize the demand for urea-formaldehyde resin, thereby supporting urea demand [3] Group 4: Production and Capacity - Urea production in April reached 5.8375 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.05% [4] - The national urea capacity utilization rate was 86.23% as of April 24, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.84% [4] - Urea inventory levels increased to 1.065 million tons by the end of April, marking a 22.72% month-on-month rise due to weakened downstream demand [4] Group 5: Price and Cost Dynamics - Urea prices have softened due to weak coal prices and limited downstream demand, significantly compressing profit margins for producers [6] - The average profit margin for urea produced via certain methods has turned negative, indicating severe challenges for production companies [6] Group 6: Export Outlook - Urea exports remain tightly controlled, with March exports at 0.23 million tons, a 63.62% month-on-month increase, but a 75.25% year-on-year decline [7] - The export situation is expected to remain stable in May, with potential changes in June depending on domestic demand and production capacity [7] Group 7: Future Market Trends - The second half of the year presents both challenges and opportunities, with potential price recovery expected as agricultural demand improves [9] - The market may face increased competition due to excess production capacity, particularly after the peak demand period [9] - Monitoring of export policy changes in June and July will be crucial for market dynamics and profitability [9]